Call to The Pen

Last season, the Orioles shocked the Baseball world by turning the tables on the usual suspects in the AL East by winning 93 games, nabbing second place in the AL East, and one of the two wild card spots. The O's made the playoffs in 2013, making their way back to the post season for the first time in 1997. After making quick work of the Texas Rangers in the wild card play-in game, the Orioles ran into the Bronx Bombers in the ALDS. The Yankees outlasted the O's, beating them in a decisive game 5 to move on to the League Championship Series.

Since then, the AL East has undergone a make over. The Red Sox ridded themselves of big contracts like Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, as well as distractions like Josh Beckett. The Sox have since replaced that trio with a group of veterans like Shane Victorino, David Ross, Ryan Dempster, Jonny Gomes, Mike Napoli, and Stephen Drew. General Manager Ben Cherington prudently signed no players tied to draft pick compensation, and predominantly went after players considered "sure things" as opposed to big names and thus big risks.

Across the border, Blue Jays made the deal of the offseason, acquiring Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, Josh Johnson, and Mark Buehrle from the Miami Marlins in exchange for a bus load of prospects. After  years of prospect cultivation and development, the Blue Jays decided to use some young talent as currency in order to make a run at the playoffs. The Jays added the cherry on top of the sundae by making a second deal, this one for the reigning NL Cy Young award winner, knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. With this infusion of talent and experience, especially in the rotation, the Blue Jays are prime to make the playoffs for the first time since 1993.

The Rays, that scrappy young club from St. Petersburg, continued to rake in the young, talented, cheap, and team controlled players by trading veteran pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis to Kansas City. In Return the Rays received stud prospect Wil Myers along with pitcher Jake Odorizzi. While this deal didn't compare in size or impact to the dealings of the Blue Jays, the Rays secured one of the top MLB-ready talents in the minors without trading AL Cy Young award winner David Price, who's expensive arbitration years just kicked in. While this move might set the Rays back at first, with prospects like Chris Archer and youngsters like Jeremy Hellickson and Alex Cobb vying for places in the Rays rotation, Tampa looks to remain relevant in 2013 as well as the foreseeable future.

The Yankees offseason involved signing a number of older veteran players to short-term contracts, plugging holes, in order to stay under the luxury tax, but also not fall into the cellar of the AL East. The Yanks brought back Ichiro, Andy Pettitte, and Hiroki Kuroda, while adding veteran Kevin Youkilis to man the hot corner at 3rd. While these moves seem a bit desperate on the surface, the Yankees made shrewd moves that should keep them germane in the AL East in 2013. The only hole in the Yankees roster seems to be behind the plate, but the team has all spring training to figure out their backstop issues.

So, with every team in the AL East realistically eyeing the playoffs for the first time in years, what aspect might separate one from the rest of the pack? Last season, the Orioles used their brilliant bullpen to push them just past the Rays into the playoffs, and it seems as though the relief core may be the key to the east once again. In 2013, the O's bullpen put up a combined 6.4 fWAR, which ranked 3rd in the American League behind only the Royals and the Rays. Orioles relievers made quick work of the final innings of a game not by utilizing the strikeout, but instead by inducing more ground balls than any other AL East pen. In addition, the O's gave out few free passes, ranking second, behind only the Rangers, in BB/9.

Team	K/9	BB/9	LOB%	GB%	FIP	WAR
Rays	9.33	2.88	77.10%	46.40%	3.19	6.7
Orioles	7.49	2.87	78.50%	49.10%	3.68	6.4
Yankees	8.92	3.2	77.60%	44.90%	3.62	5.5
Red Sox	8.31	3.38	74.80%	45.10%	3.91	4.6
Blue Jays	8.58	3.51	74.10%	43.10%	4.21	2.5

The Orioles didn't have the best offense, nor stellar starting pitching, but Buck Showalter's bullpen kept the team in every game, making the Orioles a deadly foe in close games. Unfortunately for Baltimore, their incredible winning percentage in 1-run games and extra inning games came halted in the ALDS in which 4 out of the 5 games played ended with a margin of victory of just 1 run. Given that the Orioles bullpen became their key to success, and the growing parity in the AL East, what have Baltimore's rivals been up to?

David Robertson

The Yankees lost a key part of their 2012 bullpen, righty Raphael Soriano, but they were able to parlay his success into an additional draft pick by offering him a qualifying offer that he didn't accept. Instead, once Soriano signed with his new club, the Washington Nationals, the Yankees picked up a compensatory pick, which turns out to be the 32nd pick in this summers upcoming draft. The Yankees willingly parted with their 2012 bullpen anchor given Soriano's desire for a lucrative multi-year contract, the ability to obtain a draft pick in return, and most importantly knowing that future Hall-Of-Famer Mariano Rivera would return in 2013 to fill the hole left by Soriano. In addition to Rivera's return, the Yankees still have Nate Robertson, the strikeout machine, who has posted a 12.20 K/9, 2.70 FIP, and accumulated 6.0 fWAR since 2009. Between Robertson, Rivera, and a mix of Boone Logan from the left side, the Yankees bullpen should hold up late in games.

Roberto Hernandez

The Rays made some minor changes to their bullpen, but given their recent success, these changes should prove fruitful. Tampa traded ground ball specialist Burk Badenhop to the Brewers, replacing him with Roberto Hernandez, the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona. Carmona, like Badenhop throws from the right side, and more importantly throws a hard sinker that induces a great number of ground balls. Since becoming a regular in the Majors, Hernandez has posted a ridiculous 58.4 ground ball percentage, good enough for a 2.26 GB/FB ratio. Hernandez did most of his previous work from the starting rotation, and while the Rays may ask him to spot start in a pinch, his role will be out of the bullpen where Joe Madden expects him to induce ground ball after ground ball. The Rays also resigned Joel Peralta while retaining the services of All-Star closer Fernando Rodney by picking up the 2013 team option attached to his contract. Add those names to lefty fire baller Jake McGee, and the Rays bullpen looks ready to buttress their young starting pitching for another season.

Koji Uehara

The Red Sox made headlines by signing lots of free agents this offseason, including a few in the bullpen. The Sox signed southpaw, and well traveled, Craig Breslow, now onto his 7th MLB franchise, to a conservative 2-year $6.25 million contract, added former Ranger's righty Koji Uehara for 1-year and $4.25 million, and traded for former Pirates closer Joel Hanrahan. In addition, the Sox will benefit from the return of Andrew Bailey from an injury marred 2012 campaign, especially since Bailey's 2013 will determine how much money the reliever will get paid in his 3rd year of arbitration. Oliver, a projection system created by Hardball Times' Brian Cartwright, projects good numbers from the Red Sox bullpen, especially from Uehara, who I think represents the keystone to success for this relief core. Also, don't forget about Daniel Bard, who many at spring training say is progressing nicely and might fit into the Sox pen around after All-Star break if the team moves a pitcher a the trade deadline.

Name	ERA	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Koji Uehara	2.99	10.15	1.39	2.74
Joel Hanrahan	3.64	9.90	3.93	3.08
Andrew Bailey	3.99	8.25	3.20	3.12
Junichi Tazawa	3.77	8.67	2.89	3.28
Craig Breslow	3.75	7.93	3.32	3.51
Alfredo Aceves	4.35	7.10	3.44	3.86
Andrew Miller	5.17	8.58	6.34	4.10
Total	3.95	8.65	3.50	3.38

The 2013 Blue Jays bullpen looks eerily similar to the 2012 pen that ranked middle of the road in some statistical categories and poor in others amongst AL teams. They coaxed lefty Darren Oliver to return, and remain hopeful that Sergio Santos can overcome shoulder surgery to return to his level of nastiness by June. The Jays put a lot of faith in their starting rotation, stocking it with work horses like R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle, as well as possible ace Josh Johnson. These three starters should lessen the load on the Blue Jays pen, but given Johnson's injury history and Buehrle's age, the Jays may need to call on their relievers in 2013 more often than they expect.

Darren O'Day

How about those Orioles? Did the organization with the golden bullpen do anything to improve on 2012? Instead of adding or subtracting, the Orioles did their best to keep their 2012 bullpen in tact for 2013. The O's avoided arbitration with Jim Johnson and Darren O'Day, two of the most utilized and important parts of their 2012 relief prosperity. The team returns Luis Ayala, Tommy Hunter, lefty Brian Matusz, and Troy Patton, all of whom they hope will continue to perform at a high level. While the O's may not have "upgraded" their bullpen, the team expects to add one if not two highly touted starting pitching prospects in mid-season, Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman. With the addition of these young stars to an already solid starting pitching staff, the Orioles have no need to tinker with a bullpen that already promises to keep men off base, and to induce lots of double plays late in games.

The AL East is a free for all in 2013, with no one team looking like the current favorite. Given that fact, each team has done their best to ensure that their bullpen won't be the one to falter in 2013. Most of a team's success derives from hitting and starting pitching, but with 5 teams so close to each other in talent and projected wins, it may come down to which relief core can hold the lead in the latter third of the game. While we can only attempt to predict which bullpen will be the most valuable in 2013, it is safe to say that the competition for the, most-likely, 2 playoff spots in the AL East should be fierce.

The Outfielders, They're Everywhere

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim recently made a dashing, daring, out-of-the-blue move, snatching Josh Hamilton, considered the best hitter on the free agent market this offseason, to a 5-year $125 million contract. With the signing of Hamilton, the Angels now found themselves with an abundance of outfielders, a group that includes Mike Trout, Mark Trumbo, Vernon Wells, and Peter Bourjos. Also, due to the Angels residence in the American League, we can add Kendrys Morales to that group as well. The Angels have already made it known that they are willing to hear offers for any of the players mentioned above except for Mike Trout. Especially given the fact that the Angels could still use a #3 or better starter to solidify their roster, Trumbo and Bourjos, who have the most value, look to be the most likely to be traded. The question remains, where might Bourjos, a speedy outfielder who plays great defense (think Ben Revere), or Trumbo, a right-handed masher at the plate with trouble finding a position to play in the field, end up.

Peter Bourjos Bunting

Peter Bourjos: So far this offseason, we've seen two similar players moving from one team to another via the trade. First the Twins traded Denard Span to the Washington Nationals for RHP Alex Meyer, and next the Twins traded Ben Revere to the Phillies in exchange for RHP Vance Worley and prospect Trevor May. Bourjos plays a very similar style of game to Revere and Span in that every aspect of his game that adds value comes from his speed. Over his two and a half seasons in the Majors, Bourjos has a well above-average infield hit percentage and bunt hit percentage. His defense is excellent, ranking 2nd in outfielders in Ultimate Zone Rating and 7th amongst all outfielders in Defensive Runs Saved last season. Interestingly, Bourjos had a significant drop off in his overall value from 2011 to 2012 despite becoming a much better defender, something that generally adds value, not subtracts it. So, what happened to Bourjos in 2012? My opinion is that due to a nagging wrist injury that he suffered after being hit by a pitch caused Bourjos to swing at fewer pitches, thus giving himself fewer chances to use his speed to get on base.

	SB	OBP	IFH%	O-Swing %	Z-Swing %	F-Strike %
2011	22	0.327	14.1%	33.2%	63.0%	62.9%
2012	3	0.291	9.7%	25.8%	60.4%	65.1%

Looking at his numbers, the 2012 version of Bourjos stopped swinging at as many pitches as he did in 2011. Both his swing percentages, at pitches in the strike zone and out of the strike zone, dropped and the percent of first-pitch strikes he saw went up. The difference in the ability for a hitter to get on base between going down 0-1 or going up 1-0 in any given at bat is staggering. Hitters that get ahead of the pitcher gain a significant advantage in getting on base, a sign that one of the worst things Bourjos could have done was to swing at fewer pitches. Swinging at fewer pitches affected Bourjos' infield hit percentage, which plummeted from 14.1% to 9.7%. 9.7% is still above the MLB average for all outfielders, but given Bourjos' lack of power, .155 career ISO and 16.1 extra-base hits per 100 games played, he needs a healthy wrist in order to achieve his full potential at the plate. Given the offseason's magical healing qualities, I see Bourjos as a +2.5 win player +/- .6 wins.

So, now that know a little more about Bourjos, where, if the Angels decide to trade him might he fit best? The Cubs could be possible suitors for the young outfielder, who is under team control for the next 4 seasons, entering his 1st year of arbitration in 2014. Currently the Cubs project to start David DeJesus, Alfonso Soriano, and Nate Schierholtz in their outfield, none of whom plays good enough defense to justify playing in centerfield. Given that the Cubs were willing to offer Anibal Sanchez a 5-year contract at $77 million, it isn't unreasonable for the Cubbies to trade a starting pitcher and replace that rotation spot with a free agent signing. So, maybe the Cubs should consider trading Peter Bourjos for righty starter Matt Garza. Garza has one year left on his contract, but he's also returning from an elbow injury, making him the perfect trade partner in a straight up 1-for-1 trade with the Angels. The Angels lost out on Zack Greinke, and still need that third 2nd tier starter in their rotation to complement Jared Weaver and C.J. Wilson.

Southpaw Jon Lester

Another possible destination for Bourjos is Boston. Given the fact that Boston already has Jacoby Ellsbury to play center field, Bourjos doesn't look like a fit. How about this trade proposal? The Red Sox send Jacoby Ellsbury to the Texas Rangers in exchange for RHP Alexi Ogando and LHP Robbie Ross, and simultaneously trade LHP Jon Lester to the Angels for Peter Bourjos. These moves make a lot of sense for every team involved. The Rangers get their replacement for Josh Hamilton in Jacoby Ellsbury without trading prized prospects Jurickson Profar, Mike Olt, and Martin Perez, while the Red Sox add serious depth and controllable years to their starting rotation. The Sox also acquire Bourjos who will camp out for cheap in center field allowing the Sox to utilize Shane Victorino in right field. The Angels get a bonafide #2 start in Jon Lester at a reasonable price for one year.

Mark Trumbo: Who is Mark Trumbo? Of every player to hit above a .220 ISO (MLB avg in 2012 was .151), Trumbo had the 3rd worst BB%. Trumbo's high swing percentage and low contact percentages on pitches both in and out of the strike zone, portray a strong free-swinger who needs to develop some plate discipline in order to become more like an Adrian Beltre type hitter rather than a Chris Davis like hitter. At only 26 years old, Trumbo isn't expected to have already developed the plate discipline he needs to succeed for the next 10 seasons, but few players at his age have. As you can see by Trumbo's numbers in different pitch counts, Trumbos fairs disproportionately well when the count is in his favor, but as the count drifts from 0-0 to 0-1, to 0-2, he becomes extremely susceptible to breaking pitches out of the zone, leading to easy outs for the defense. Since Trumbo, like Bourjos, is under team control for the next 4 seasons, the needed improvements in plate discipline and BB% have time to come. In the meantime, Trumbo will continue to crush the ball when he makes contact.

In the field, Trumbo has more issues. He's played both first base and outfield for the Angels, proving to be below average in the outfield and surprisingly above average at first base. This split brings up the comparison of the Nationals Michael Morse who has also played both outfield and 1st base, playing subpar in the outfield and above average at first. If the Angels find an American League suitor for Trumbo, a mix of first base and DH would fit him well, and might even provide positive defensive value. A trade to an NL team in which he might split time between left field and first base might make him more of an aggregate average defensive player. From a base running perspective Trumbo is above average on the bases. These good numbers derive more from smart base running rather than speed, something the 6 foot 4 inch 225 pound Trumbo doesn't possess.

Mark Trumbo

Where else, other than in LA, might Trumbo fit? 3 teams come to mind. First up is the Miami Marlins. The Marlins recently cleared house by moving all major contracts to either Toronto or Arizona, but one player remaining on the Marlins depth chart that could be moved is righty Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco projects to be a +1.5 win (WARP) player according to PECOTA for another 3-4 seasons. He's currently under contract for one more season at a reasonable salary of $11.5 million. He isn't as big time an acquisition as Jon Lester, but he is a better option than Joe Blanton or Tommy Hanson. The Marlins would get their first baseman of future, and just as importantly, a power bat to complement Giancarlo Stanton. It's possible that in order to make this acquisition a done deal the Marlins may need to either pay a portion of Nolasco's 2013 salary or add in a young prospect.

Another possible destination for Trumbo is Tampa Bay. Tampa signed James Loney to a one-year deal, but Trumbo would make a great platoon bat at first base given that he is a righty and Loney a lefty, but would also do well for the Rays at DH, a position that www.mlbdepthcharts.com currently has Ryan Roberts filling. Trumbo would be under Rays control for 4 years, and would be given a chance to contribute every day. In order to complete such a transaction, the Rays might consider trading RHP Jeff Niemann, who becomes a free agent in 2015. The Rays have options to fill Niemann's spot in the rotation including Chris Archer, Alex Torres, and the newly signed Roberto Hernandez. This might weaken the Rays rotation a bit, but they gain 2 overall years of control, solidify the middle of their lineup, and allow a young starter to gain some much needed experience.

Justin Masterson

The final possible venue for Trumbo would be in Cleveland. The Indians already made a trade this offseason in order to build for the near future, and making a deal for Trumbo would follow the same game plan. The Indians got the worst power production from the 1st base spot of any team in Major League Baseball last season at .106 and the worst slugging percentage in the league at .342. In addition, the Indians have been known to be shopping a starting pitcher like Justin Masterson with teams like the San Diego Padres and Boston Red Sox interested in the righty sinker baller. Masterson is under team control for 2013 and 2014, is a good candidate for a contract extension, and forecasts as a ~ +1.8 win player for 2013 and 2014. The Indians would receive a first baseman to help fans forget the troubles they had with Travis Hafner, becoming the exclusive option at 1st after 2013 since the Indians already signed Mark Reynolds to a one-year contract for next season. In Masterson, the Angels would be getting a pitcher who is dominant when he locates his hard sinker, but only a bit above average when he's wild. Masterson is a ground ball machine who gives up very few home runs. It means he's not liable to let walks score en masse, but he might not be counted on to go more than 6 innings due to a high WHIP (1.45 in comparison to a 1.31 league average). He's a better pitcher than both Joe Blanton and Tommy Hanson, and similar to C.J. Wilson (2012 fWAR: Wilson- 2.5 Masterson- 2.3).

The Angels have a plethora of outfielders, with numerous possible lineup combinations depending on which outfielder they trade or if they make any trades.

Position	Player	Proj 2013 WARP
LF	Trumbo	1.3
CF	Trout	2.2
RF	Hamilton	3.4
Total	-	6.9
LF	Trout	2.2
CF	Bourjos	1.7
RF	Hamilton	3.4
Total	-	7.3

Both combinations of outfielders are quite valuable, especially since we can expect a better WARP than 2.2 out of Mike Trout next season. Both Bourjos and Trumbo have value on the trade market; enough value to garner a decent pitcher in return. If the Angels instead find a new home for Vernon Wells or Kendrys Morales, they will have retained a better overall lineup for now and the future, but most the team most likely will not upgrade their rotation significantly enough to make a difference. If the team trades Vernon Wells, the key will be to ask for little in return other than for the acquiring team to pick up the ridiculous $42 million left on Well's current contract. If the Angels were to get rid of even 3/4 of Well's contract, it might allow them to go after the best free agent pitchers on the market next year. Overall, the Angels hold all of the cards. If they don't want to trade anyone, they have that option. On the other hand, their current depth chart shows a need in the rotation and a plethora of outfielders, pointing towards an upcoming trade.

Line by Line, Brick by Brick

Giancarlo Stanton

In order for a building to stand without wavering, it must have support from the bottom all the way to the top. Often times when a structure seems unstable, it's time to knock it down and start from scratch. Sometimes that is the most cost effective way to solve the problem. Being able to spot an issue of instability before it comes to the surface can save time, money, and aggravation. The Miami Marlins had a number of motivations behind clearing their team of almost every big contract, even though the team signed 3 of those contracts not one year ago. Sure, some of the motivation is that Marlins owner, Jeffry Loria, wants to continue to collect his revenue sharing checks without paying money to his players in order to gain the largest profit margin possible. To Loria, his team can either profit from the fans that come out to see a winning team, the motivation behind signing Reyes, Buehrle, and Bell last offseason, or through revenue sharing and a minuscule payroll.

While Loria may be stuffing his pockets, while Major League Baseball looks the other way, the Marlins have traded away their best, and most expensive, players before and become winners once again. We've seen this movie, read this script, and know the way it works. (If you want a more detailed description of this process, read this article I wrote here) The Marlins recently traded Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, and Jose Reyes to the Blue Jays in exchange for a solid catch of prospects. In lieu of this so-called "mega deal", numerous writers, pundits, and fans expect the Marlins to look into trading Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton is still signed to his Minor League contract, so he's fairly cheap for a player who'se put up over 13 fWAR in his first 3 seasons in the Major Leagues. Oh, and did I mention he's only 23 years old?

Stanton is a true talent. He's the prototypical power hitting, middle of the order, masher who'se mere presence in the lineup can change the entire opposing team's game plan. He is big, fast, strong, and can hit the ball a mile, but he remains a Marlin. The Marlins have no need to trade Stanton because he's inexpensive, and by far their best current Major League player. On the other hand, following the trade between the Marlins and Blue Jays, Stanton remarked that given the fire sale, he wants to leave the Marlins as soon as he can. Basically, unless the Marlins can put a winning product out on the field in the next 2-3 seasons, Stanton won't even consider signing an extension, let alone, re-signing with the team when he becomes a free agent in 2017. From Stanton's point of view, this is not only reasonable, but necessary. Stanton wants to win and make heaps of cash, but due to his current contract, he won't that kind of money for a few years.

In my opinion, since the Marlins hold all of the cards in this situation, I don't see the team trading Stanton unless GM Michael Hill is blown away by the package in return. Since the team is currently rebuilding, Hill would want to receive top level prospects, at least one of whom is close to MLB ready. Any team that could successfully trade for Stanton would receive a player under team control for the next 4 seasons, who, according to PECOTA, is expected to produce an annual output of 4.1 WARP per season. Since 1 WARP is worth about $7 million dollars, any team paying Stanton under $28 million would be getting solid value.

To get a look at just how good Giancarlo Stanton has been, consider these facts. Since 1945 only three players have hit more home runs in seasons they played in which they were 20-22 years old than Stanton. They are Frank Robinson, Eddie Matthews, and Alex Rodriguez. Only 6 players had a higher wRC+ in the same seasons, and only 16 players had a higher total fWAR than Stanton in those seasons. Most impressively, Stanton had the highest isolated power of any player since 1945 in their 20 year old, 21 year old, and 22 year old seasons combined. Isolated power is slugging percentage minus batting average, and it usually peaks around 25 to 26 years old. At 23 years old, it isn't unreasonable to conclude that Stanton's power numbers could increase, and his high strikeout rate will decrease, making him quite the formidable hitter. Overall, the only current player with whom Stanton is similar is the Braves Jason Heyward, another young bright talent.

So far, the teams that have been linked to Stanton are the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies, and Chicago Cubs. Each team would likely need to give up its top prospect, as well as 2 others. So, here's what I think these teams would have to give up to procure Stanton from the Marlins.

Yankees: The Yankees traded Jesus Montero to the Mariners, but retain a strong and youthful Minor League system, ripe with a number of top prospects. Mason Williams and Manny Banuelos are probably the top hitting and pitching prospects respectively in the Yankees system. Catcher Gary Sanchez might be their top position player, but Williams should be ready to play in the big leagues before the young backstop. Banuelos is coming off of arm surgery, which drops a team's desire to trade for him, but his talent and productivity this far in the minors still makes him a great pickup. Even trading Williams and Banuelos wouldn't get the Marlins to give up Stanton, the Yankees would most likely have to add in a third prospect like Adam Warren, a solid pitching talent who has already thrown a few pitched in the Majors. If the Marlins asked for Brett Gardner, I'm sure the Yankees would have to think twice, but might trade Gardner too. The acquisition of Stanton would give the Yankees incredible meat in their order, and might give them offensive firepower equivalent, if not better than the Angels, Tigers, or Rangers. I'd ballpark the chances the Yankees have of acquiring Stanton at 1:25.

Red Sox: The Red Sox, like the Marlins are rebuilding, but in a different way. The Red Sox are willing to spend money, are always looking to win, and would love to solidify the middle of their order for years to come by trading for Giancarlo Stanton. If the Red Sox were to lose some top prospects, the team could fill those spots via free agency, or look towards winning in the near future rather than the distant one. The Sox system has some talent, especially after trading away some big contracts to the Dodgers in exchange for mostly prospects. A reasonable trade for Stanton would have to include Matt Barnes, Jackie Bradley, and Ruby De La Rosa, if not more. The only reason I'm not putting Xander Bogaerts, the Red Sox top prospect, in the deal is that the Marlins just received a top middle infield prospect in Adeiny Hechavarria from the Blue Jays, which makes Bogaerts less valuable. Even a package like the one I'm proposing might not be enough to sway the Marlins, but those three players could all become above average to dynamic MLB players. I would give the Red Sox 1:30 odds of landing Stanton.

Baltimore Orioles: This situation is vastly different from the first two. The Orioles have recently become viable in the AL East, want to continue that competitiveness, but count on their young players to help, making it more difficult to part with them. For example, the O's brought up top hitting prospect Manny Machado towards the end of 2012 to fill in at third base even though many thought Machado wouldn't be ready for another year. The Orioles currently have the top-pitching prospect in all of Minor League Baseball, Dylan Bundy. His stock will probably never be higher than it is now, but the Orioles would rather bring him up to become the ace of their rotation for the future than trade him. On the other hand, the O's won more than 90 games last season with a mediocre pitching staff, and adding Stanton would give them the power bat they so desperately need in their order. A package of Dylan Bundy and Jason Espisito might coax Miami into moving Stanton, but if the Orioles aren't willing to give up Bundy, they could also offer Jon Schoop, Kevin Gausman, LJ Hoes, and Bobby Bundy, but I doubt even that package would pry Stanton from Miami. If the Orioles are willing to trade Bundy their odds are good, 1:10, but if not, I'd say 1:60 they can acquire Giancarlo.

Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies used their top prospects a few years ago to obtain Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee (the first time), Roy Oswalt, and Hunter Pence, so their farm system is somewhat depleted. On the other hand, the Phillies have the potential to put together an enticing enough package. Stanton would give the Phillies a power right-handed bat in their small park at a small cost. Stanton plus the Phillies pitching staff could put the Phillies in a good position to win another championship. The Phillies have two ways of compiling the necessary goods to get Stanton. One possible trade would be top pitching prospects Trevor May and Jessie Biddle along with outfielder Zach Collier. Neither Biddle nor May are #1 starter material, but both have #2 potential, while Collier is a young, talented, but inexperienced outfielder who has the potential to be a 20 home run, 20 stolen base type player. Another option would be to trade Domonic Brown along with Trevor May and Austin Hyatt. The Phillies don't have the flashy, toolsy, top level prospect the Marlins would be looking for, but could fill out Miami's pitching prospects, a valuable commodity. I'd make their odds of landing Stanton 1:40.

Chicago Cubs: The Cubs are a team unlike any of those that I've already mentioned. This is a team that is also in complete rebuilding mode. Acquiring Stanton would be a nice coup, would secure sell outs at Wrigley, and might even get the Cubs closer to contending in the NL Central than the team is right now. Since many of the players the Marlins might want already play in the Majors, the Cubs do have more to lose than the O's, Yankees, Red Sox, or Phillies, but shouldn't be considered out of the running. A package deal of Brett Jackson, Jeff Samardzija, and Matt Zczur could do the trick. Jackson is ready to play right now, has shown he can hit MLB pitching, and could fill Stanton's spot in the Marlins order. Samardzija is already a very good MLB pitcher with the sky as his limit. He's also only 27 years old. The only players I could see Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer holding onto no matter what would be recently signed Cuban outfielder Jorge Solar and first baseman Anthony Rizzo, everyone else is on the table. Chances the Cubs get Stanton: 1:30.

Overall, I don't think the Marlins are going to trade Giancarlo Stanton this offseason, but given their recent moves, nothing is impossible when it comes to the fish. A dark horse candidate for acquiring Stanton could be the Tampa Bay Rays, given their amount of young pitching, but add in the recent contract extension given to Evan Longoria with Stanton's incoming arbitration eligibility, and the Rays might not be able to afford the right fielder. Also, don't count out the Rangers or Pirates. Stanton has a legitimate reason for requesting a one-way ticket out of Miami, but he's not in a great bargaining position. On the other hand, the Marlins could complete their rebuilding process by trading Stanton and acquiring 3-4 more prospects. One thing is for sure, never say never when dealing with the Marlins.

The Marlin or the Trout

In the 2010 movie The Social Network, Sean Parker proclaims some sage advice on the future of Facebook.   He said, in the words of Aaron Sorkin's award winning script, "When you go fishing you can catch a lot of fish, or you can catch a big fish. You ever walk into a guy's den and see a picture of him standing next to fourteen trout?" Apart from the obvious aquamarine references, this vignette perfectly depicts the current mindset of the Miami Marlins.  

Last night, while watching MLB Network's coverage of the two latest major trades, Ken Rosenthal claimed that the Marlins are looking to sell a number of their talented players in order to build a core if different and younger players.  The Marlins hopes for making the playoffs continue to dwindle as they find themselves 10 games back of the Washington Nationals in the National League East and 7.5 games back in the wild card hunt.  The Marlins, like every team want to catch the big fish, a world series trophy.  This franchise knows how to accomplish this goal, as the have won the same number of world series in the 19 years of the franchise has existed, as the Philadelphia Phillies have won in their 122 years of existence.  

In the past, the Marlins have built a winning team by cultivating young, talented, and most importantly, cheap players through the draft and trades.  They bring these youngster up to the Major Leagues, allowing them to "get their feet (or fins) wet" and gain some experience.  Then, as if struck by lightning, management decides that "this year" is the year to win.  Next, the front office makes a few brilliant and strategic trades to bring in some veteran players to fill the gaps.  Between the young talent and experienced veterans, the Marlins manage to win the wild card, and bing, bang, boom they win the World Series.  This series of events has already occurred twice in less than 20 years, and still the Marlins find it difficult to fill their stadium on a nightly basis.  Oh, and don't forget that after winning the World Series, Marlins management proceeds to trade off all of their talent in order to, once again, plant their farm system with seeds of young prospects.

After years of radio silence in the off season free-agent market, the Marlins finally made a splash.  An organization notorious for never spending a dime, put it's money to good use by snatching up free-agent shortstop Jose Reyes, righty closer Heath Bell, and lefty Mark Buehrle (whose last name I would continuously mispel if not for spell check).  These additions, and a beautiful new retractable roof stadium, were supposed to attract hoards of fans to come roaring through the ticket gates and bring in much needed revenue.  The fish even made a trade for veteran Carlos Lee in the hopes he could help them to the promised land, but El Caballo could not right this forlorn team.  Unfortunately, possibly by not sticking to the old yet proven method of winning, the Marlins find themselves below .500, and barely clinging to the hope that they will turn it around.  

In lieu of this disappointing season, the Marlins seem to be taking, not the road less traveled nor the road most frequented, but a middle path.  A number of, still young, and highly talented players remain on the Marlins squad.  Many of these players came up through their farm system or were traded to Miami just as their Major League careers began.  Yesterday, the Marlins traded right-handed pitcher Anibal Sanchez and second baseman Omar Infante to the Detroit Tigers for a package of prospects including coveted righty Jacob Turner.  This move, in addition to rumors currently swirling, show that the Marlins are not shopping for veteran talent to complement young stars, but instead searching for young talent to partner with their newly acquired veteran free-agents.  

Anibal Sanchez, Hanely Ramirez, Josh Johnson, and Ricky Nolasco are all considered prize assets on the open market, and it seems as though the Marlins are willing to sell.  If the combination of Sanchez and Omar Infante could fetch a package deal including Jacob Turner and Rob Brantly, I can only imagine what the Marlins could get by dangling Ramirez and Johnson as bait.  Nolasco is an interesting prize as well, due to his consistency and proven ability to keep right handed batters from reaching base (.296 OBP against vs righties in his career).  Nolasco is under club control for 2013, which means any team trading for him would be trading for at least a year and a half of service, a more valuable commodity than a half-year rental.   

It isn't often we see underachieving, yet talented, teams such as the 2012 Marlins looking to trade some of their better assets in order to put together a team that could win over a longer stretch of time.  Usually such teams put all of their efforts into righting the ship by buying and not selling at the deadline.  Teams like the Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians, and St. Louis Cardinals fall into that category in 2012, but those three squads have been linked to buying, not selling.  I commend the Marlins for their strategy, although it must be easier to pursue such a game plan when the team only ranks 18th in attendance after building a totally new stadium (See http://espn.go.com/mlb/attendance for more information)  

Nolasco is a nice trade piece, as is Heath Bell, and the talented yet enigmatic Hanley Ramirez, but the true prize is Josh Johnson.  Johnson has a year left on his current contract, and despite recent injuries and struggles, has bounced back this season.  Baseball Prospectus predicts he will finish the year with a 2.8 WARP.  More importantly, according to BP's 10 year predictor metrics, the team that possesses Johnson can expect a >3.0 WARP pitcher through the 2018 season.  His upside is undeniable and with Rangers, Angels, and Red Sox scouts reported to be at his most recent strong start, there exists proof to back up the rumors that the Marlins will trade him by the July 31st trade deadline.  

With a wealth of abundant talent on their current MLB squad, the Marlins can expect the equivalent of stock options in return for the rare jewels in their tank.  These prospects may not become the players the Marlins hope them to be, but some of them will be the fish of the future, a future the Marlins hope will be bright and full of wins.  So, does this spectacle deserve the name fire sale, or is it merely a mirage?  Hanley Ramirez, although a stellar talent, has had attitude problems, and while Josh Johnson has extreme talent, he has been oft injured.  The Marlins have twice outsmarted every other Major League team by sneaking into the playoffs and winning the World Series as a franchise sans money.  Is this the beginning of another shadowy run at a title?  Maybe not this season, but I wouldn't say 2014 is out of the question.