Call to The Pen

Last season, the Orioles shocked the Baseball world by turning the tables on the usual suspects in the AL East by winning 93 games, nabbing second place in the AL East, and one of the two wild card spots. The O's made the playoffs in 2013, making their way back to the post season for the first time in 1997. After making quick work of the Texas Rangers in the wild card play-in game, the Orioles ran into the Bronx Bombers in the ALDS. The Yankees outlasted the O's, beating them in a decisive game 5 to move on to the League Championship Series.

Since then, the AL East has undergone a make over. The Red Sox ridded themselves of big contracts like Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, as well as distractions like Josh Beckett. The Sox have since replaced that trio with a group of veterans like Shane Victorino, David Ross, Ryan Dempster, Jonny Gomes, Mike Napoli, and Stephen Drew. General Manager Ben Cherington prudently signed no players tied to draft pick compensation, and predominantly went after players considered "sure things" as opposed to big names and thus big risks.

Across the border, Blue Jays made the deal of the offseason, acquiring Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, Josh Johnson, and Mark Buehrle from the Miami Marlins in exchange for a bus load of prospects. After  years of prospect cultivation and development, the Blue Jays decided to use some young talent as currency in order to make a run at the playoffs. The Jays added the cherry on top of the sundae by making a second deal, this one for the reigning NL Cy Young award winner, knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. With this infusion of talent and experience, especially in the rotation, the Blue Jays are prime to make the playoffs for the first time since 1993.

The Rays, that scrappy young club from St. Petersburg, continued to rake in the young, talented, cheap, and team controlled players by trading veteran pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis to Kansas City. In Return the Rays received stud prospect Wil Myers along with pitcher Jake Odorizzi. While this deal didn't compare in size or impact to the dealings of the Blue Jays, the Rays secured one of the top MLB-ready talents in the minors without trading AL Cy Young award winner David Price, who's expensive arbitration years just kicked in. While this move might set the Rays back at first, with prospects like Chris Archer and youngsters like Jeremy Hellickson and Alex Cobb vying for places in the Rays rotation, Tampa looks to remain relevant in 2013 as well as the foreseeable future.

The Yankees offseason involved signing a number of older veteran players to short-term contracts, plugging holes, in order to stay under the luxury tax, but also not fall into the cellar of the AL East. The Yanks brought back Ichiro, Andy Pettitte, and Hiroki Kuroda, while adding veteran Kevin Youkilis to man the hot corner at 3rd. While these moves seem a bit desperate on the surface, the Yankees made shrewd moves that should keep them germane in the AL East in 2013. The only hole in the Yankees roster seems to be behind the plate, but the team has all spring training to figure out their backstop issues.

So, with every team in the AL East realistically eyeing the playoffs for the first time in years, what aspect might separate one from the rest of the pack? Last season, the Orioles used their brilliant bullpen to push them just past the Rays into the playoffs, and it seems as though the relief core may be the key to the east once again. In 2013, the O's bullpen put up a combined 6.4 fWAR, which ranked 3rd in the American League behind only the Royals and the Rays. Orioles relievers made quick work of the final innings of a game not by utilizing the strikeout, but instead by inducing more ground balls than any other AL East pen. In addition, the O's gave out few free passes, ranking second, behind only the Rangers, in BB/9.

Team	K/9	BB/9	LOB%	GB%	FIP	WAR
Rays	9.33	2.88	77.10%	46.40%	3.19	6.7
Orioles	7.49	2.87	78.50%	49.10%	3.68	6.4
Yankees	8.92	3.2	77.60%	44.90%	3.62	5.5
Red Sox	8.31	3.38	74.80%	45.10%	3.91	4.6
Blue Jays	8.58	3.51	74.10%	43.10%	4.21	2.5

The Orioles didn't have the best offense, nor stellar starting pitching, but Buck Showalter's bullpen kept the team in every game, making the Orioles a deadly foe in close games. Unfortunately for Baltimore, their incredible winning percentage in 1-run games and extra inning games came halted in the ALDS in which 4 out of the 5 games played ended with a margin of victory of just 1 run. Given that the Orioles bullpen became their key to success, and the growing parity in the AL East, what have Baltimore's rivals been up to?

David Robertson

The Yankees lost a key part of their 2012 bullpen, righty Raphael Soriano, but they were able to parlay his success into an additional draft pick by offering him a qualifying offer that he didn't accept. Instead, once Soriano signed with his new club, the Washington Nationals, the Yankees picked up a compensatory pick, which turns out to be the 32nd pick in this summers upcoming draft. The Yankees willingly parted with their 2012 bullpen anchor given Soriano's desire for a lucrative multi-year contract, the ability to obtain a draft pick in return, and most importantly knowing that future Hall-Of-Famer Mariano Rivera would return in 2013 to fill the hole left by Soriano. In addition to Rivera's return, the Yankees still have Nate Robertson, the strikeout machine, who has posted a 12.20 K/9, 2.70 FIP, and accumulated 6.0 fWAR since 2009. Between Robertson, Rivera, and a mix of Boone Logan from the left side, the Yankees bullpen should hold up late in games.

Roberto Hernandez

The Rays made some minor changes to their bullpen, but given their recent success, these changes should prove fruitful. Tampa traded ground ball specialist Burk Badenhop to the Brewers, replacing him with Roberto Hernandez, the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona. Carmona, like Badenhop throws from the right side, and more importantly throws a hard sinker that induces a great number of ground balls. Since becoming a regular in the Majors, Hernandez has posted a ridiculous 58.4 ground ball percentage, good enough for a 2.26 GB/FB ratio. Hernandez did most of his previous work from the starting rotation, and while the Rays may ask him to spot start in a pinch, his role will be out of the bullpen where Joe Madden expects him to induce ground ball after ground ball. The Rays also resigned Joel Peralta while retaining the services of All-Star closer Fernando Rodney by picking up the 2013 team option attached to his contract. Add those names to lefty fire baller Jake McGee, and the Rays bullpen looks ready to buttress their young starting pitching for another season.

Koji Uehara

The Red Sox made headlines by signing lots of free agents this offseason, including a few in the bullpen. The Sox signed southpaw, and well traveled, Craig Breslow, now onto his 7th MLB franchise, to a conservative 2-year $6.25 million contract, added former Ranger's righty Koji Uehara for 1-year and $4.25 million, and traded for former Pirates closer Joel Hanrahan. In addition, the Sox will benefit from the return of Andrew Bailey from an injury marred 2012 campaign, especially since Bailey's 2013 will determine how much money the reliever will get paid in his 3rd year of arbitration. Oliver, a projection system created by Hardball Times' Brian Cartwright, projects good numbers from the Red Sox bullpen, especially from Uehara, who I think represents the keystone to success for this relief core. Also, don't forget about Daniel Bard, who many at spring training say is progressing nicely and might fit into the Sox pen around after All-Star break if the team moves a pitcher a the trade deadline.

Name	ERA	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Koji Uehara	2.99	10.15	1.39	2.74
Joel Hanrahan	3.64	9.90	3.93	3.08
Andrew Bailey	3.99	8.25	3.20	3.12
Junichi Tazawa	3.77	8.67	2.89	3.28
Craig Breslow	3.75	7.93	3.32	3.51
Alfredo Aceves	4.35	7.10	3.44	3.86
Andrew Miller	5.17	8.58	6.34	4.10
Total	3.95	8.65	3.50	3.38

The 2013 Blue Jays bullpen looks eerily similar to the 2012 pen that ranked middle of the road in some statistical categories and poor in others amongst AL teams. They coaxed lefty Darren Oliver to return, and remain hopeful that Sergio Santos can overcome shoulder surgery to return to his level of nastiness by June. The Jays put a lot of faith in their starting rotation, stocking it with work horses like R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle, as well as possible ace Josh Johnson. These three starters should lessen the load on the Blue Jays pen, but given Johnson's injury history and Buehrle's age, the Jays may need to call on their relievers in 2013 more often than they expect.

Darren O'Day

How about those Orioles? Did the organization with the golden bullpen do anything to improve on 2012? Instead of adding or subtracting, the Orioles did their best to keep their 2012 bullpen in tact for 2013. The O's avoided arbitration with Jim Johnson and Darren O'Day, two of the most utilized and important parts of their 2012 relief prosperity. The team returns Luis Ayala, Tommy Hunter, lefty Brian Matusz, and Troy Patton, all of whom they hope will continue to perform at a high level. While the O's may not have "upgraded" their bullpen, the team expects to add one if not two highly touted starting pitching prospects in mid-season, Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman. With the addition of these young stars to an already solid starting pitching staff, the Orioles have no need to tinker with a bullpen that already promises to keep men off base, and to induce lots of double plays late in games.

The AL East is a free for all in 2013, with no one team looking like the current favorite. Given that fact, each team has done their best to ensure that their bullpen won't be the one to falter in 2013. Most of a team's success derives from hitting and starting pitching, but with 5 teams so close to each other in talent and projected wins, it may come down to which relief core can hold the lead in the latter third of the game. While we can only attempt to predict which bullpen will be the most valuable in 2013, it is safe to say that the competition for the, most-likely, 2 playoff spots in the AL East should be fierce.

Non-Tenders

Recently I expounded on the idea of the qualifying offer. Baseball's offseason has so many intricacies, terms, and ideas that even an adept Baseball fan may not understand. The qualifying offer being one such term, and non-tendering being another. Recently teams made public the names of players that would be non-tendered, thus ending the relationship between the given team and those players, effectively making those players free agents.

Tendering a contract literally means offering a contract. So, a team that offers Zack Greinke, a free agent this offseason, a contract could be tendering him a contract. Players who have played out the first few years of their original contract (the one the player signed when drafted) become arbitration eligible. Essentially, in order to attempt to properly compensate young players who find themselves still years away from free agency, MLB put in a system in which the player and team present information to a third party who decided what that player's contract will be for the next season. It is done on a season-to-season basis, and some players can go through 4 years worth of arbitration before becoming eligible for free agency. Any player who is arbitration eligible must be tendered a contract by a specific date, which happens to be December 2nd this year. Any arbitration eligible player not tendered a contract becomes a free agent. Arbitration can be an expensive process for teams. Especially when a previously productive player is coming off of a less productive season because that player will most likely make more money in arbitration, due to his past performance. A team might want to retain that player, but not at the expected arbitration salary, so the team non-tenders the player, allowing him to become a free agent, then offer him a separate deal for less money.

The process can be complicated, especially given the fact that the arbitration process has many flaws incorporated into it. Since it is complicated, here is a simple rule. Teams non-tender players when the team would rather risk losing the player to another team than possibly pay them an exorbitant amount of money through arbitration.

Non-tendering a player can prove fruitful or fruitless. Sometimes the player in question will sign with another club and perform very well whereas other times non-tendering a player can be the best way to dump a declining or injury-prone player. Some names that came out on the non-tender list this offseason include John Lannan, Mark Reynolds, Ian Stewart, Jair Jurrjens, Jeff Karstans, and Brian Wilson. The common themes amongst these players are injuries, Karstans, Wilson, and Jurrjens, and declines in productivity, Lannan and Sterwart. If you want a more comprehensive list, and way to track players who have been non-tendered, tendered, et cetera, check out MLBtraderumors page here.

John Lannan

Where might some of these non-tendered players wind up? Between 2008-2011 John Lannan averaged 1.3 fwins (stands for fWAR), which is worth between $6-7 million on this years free agent market. Lannan was set to make about $5.5 million dollars in arbitration. The Nationals don't need Lannan in their rotation, and would rather use that money to fill a void elsewhere on the team. Between 08' and 11', Lannan was incredibly consistent, putting up FIPs between 4.20 and 4.80, BB % around 8%, and most importantly the 13th best ground ball percentage in the league. Lannan strikes out very few hitters, but makes up for his lack of swing-and-miss ability with pitches that cause lots of ground balls. Lannan throws four pitchers, a fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup. According to pitch f/x data, his changeup and curveball are solid to above average pitches, causing the ground balls, while Lannan's fastball and slider leave something to be desired. Combine Lannan with a good infield defense, and he could be worth anywhere from 1 win to 3 wins. Any team hoping to find a more suitable fifth starter should take a serious look at John Lannan. The Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies, and San Diego Padres could all be solid destinations for Lannan. Toronto has been rumored to be looking for an upgrade for J.A. Happ, while the Phillies might want a more experienced pitcher than Tyler Cloyd, and the Padres could turn Lannan into a great trade piece at the trade deadline.

Brian Wilson, known as "The Beard", put up a few productive years out of the San Francisco bullpen. With Sergio Romo taking his spot in the back end of the Giants bullpen, combined with Wilson's recent Tommy John surgery made Wilson an obvious non-tender candidate. Wilson is very valuable, but not in the typical way. Any team with money that is in need of a veteran cog in the bullpen could take a chance on Wilson, given his low cost, and Wilson's desire to prove himself. A team that might not be in contention next season could look to sign Wilson in order to flip him for prospects at the trade deadline in July. According to PECOTA, Wilson could be worth one WARP per season for the next three years. Any team that can sign Wilson to a one-year deal worth no more than $6 million could end up with a solid bargain. Look for the big clubs like Boston, Baltimore, Los Angeles (both LA teams), and Detroit to take a chance on Wilson.

Mark Reynolds

Finally, there's Mark Reynolds. Reynolds hit some big home runs for the Orioles last season, but with arbitration money in the realm of $10 million or more coming to him, the Orioles wisely non-tendered Reynolds. The issue with Reynolds isn't his incredibly high strikeout totals, but finding him a place to play. Reynolds rarely plays good defense at third base, his original position, and is below average at first base. Obviously, the American League offers an alternative to this, the designated hitter, but there are only 15 DH spots in the majors. The most logical spot would be Houston, a team moving from the NL to the AL, and thus in need of a designated hitter. On the other hand, it isn't difficult to find a hitter with pop who can't play defense, so instead of spending money on Reynolds, the obvious solution is to put a prospect in the DH role who costs far less money. Reynolds might be a possibility for the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays need a first baseman, and are not shy to put a home run hitter who strikes out often in that spot. Also, the Rays could DH Reynolds to take away from him negatively affecting their infield defense. Some team will take a chance on Reynolds, his power is undeniable, but whichever team does, would never have gotten that chance had the non-tender rule not been in place.

Now that you have a full understanding of non-tendering, when this time comes about next season you might be able to point to specific players who make good non-tender candidates and other that don't. Remember, oftentimes the most important pieces to a 25-man roster can come from the most remote of places, like the jungle of non-tendered players. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilsobr01.shtml

Line by Line, Brick by Brick

Giancarlo Stanton

In order for a building to stand without wavering, it must have support from the bottom all the way to the top. Often times when a structure seems unstable, it's time to knock it down and start from scratch. Sometimes that is the most cost effective way to solve the problem. Being able to spot an issue of instability before it comes to the surface can save time, money, and aggravation. The Miami Marlins had a number of motivations behind clearing their team of almost every big contract, even though the team signed 3 of those contracts not one year ago. Sure, some of the motivation is that Marlins owner, Jeffry Loria, wants to continue to collect his revenue sharing checks without paying money to his players in order to gain the largest profit margin possible. To Loria, his team can either profit from the fans that come out to see a winning team, the motivation behind signing Reyes, Buehrle, and Bell last offseason, or through revenue sharing and a minuscule payroll.

While Loria may be stuffing his pockets, while Major League Baseball looks the other way, the Marlins have traded away their best, and most expensive, players before and become winners once again. We've seen this movie, read this script, and know the way it works. (If you want a more detailed description of this process, read this article I wrote here) The Marlins recently traded Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, and Jose Reyes to the Blue Jays in exchange for a solid catch of prospects. In lieu of this so-called "mega deal", numerous writers, pundits, and fans expect the Marlins to look into trading Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton is still signed to his Minor League contract, so he's fairly cheap for a player who'se put up over 13 fWAR in his first 3 seasons in the Major Leagues. Oh, and did I mention he's only 23 years old?

Stanton is a true talent. He's the prototypical power hitting, middle of the order, masher who'se mere presence in the lineup can change the entire opposing team's game plan. He is big, fast, strong, and can hit the ball a mile, but he remains a Marlin. The Marlins have no need to trade Stanton because he's inexpensive, and by far their best current Major League player. On the other hand, following the trade between the Marlins and Blue Jays, Stanton remarked that given the fire sale, he wants to leave the Marlins as soon as he can. Basically, unless the Marlins can put a winning product out on the field in the next 2-3 seasons, Stanton won't even consider signing an extension, let alone, re-signing with the team when he becomes a free agent in 2017. From Stanton's point of view, this is not only reasonable, but necessary. Stanton wants to win and make heaps of cash, but due to his current contract, he won't that kind of money for a few years.

In my opinion, since the Marlins hold all of the cards in this situation, I don't see the team trading Stanton unless GM Michael Hill is blown away by the package in return. Since the team is currently rebuilding, Hill would want to receive top level prospects, at least one of whom is close to MLB ready. Any team that could successfully trade for Stanton would receive a player under team control for the next 4 seasons, who, according to PECOTA, is expected to produce an annual output of 4.1 WARP per season. Since 1 WARP is worth about $7 million dollars, any team paying Stanton under $28 million would be getting solid value.

To get a look at just how good Giancarlo Stanton has been, consider these facts. Since 1945 only three players have hit more home runs in seasons they played in which they were 20-22 years old than Stanton. They are Frank Robinson, Eddie Matthews, and Alex Rodriguez. Only 6 players had a higher wRC+ in the same seasons, and only 16 players had a higher total fWAR than Stanton in those seasons. Most impressively, Stanton had the highest isolated power of any player since 1945 in their 20 year old, 21 year old, and 22 year old seasons combined. Isolated power is slugging percentage minus batting average, and it usually peaks around 25 to 26 years old. At 23 years old, it isn't unreasonable to conclude that Stanton's power numbers could increase, and his high strikeout rate will decrease, making him quite the formidable hitter. Overall, the only current player with whom Stanton is similar is the Braves Jason Heyward, another young bright talent.

So far, the teams that have been linked to Stanton are the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies, and Chicago Cubs. Each team would likely need to give up its top prospect, as well as 2 others. So, here's what I think these teams would have to give up to procure Stanton from the Marlins.

Yankees: The Yankees traded Jesus Montero to the Mariners, but retain a strong and youthful Minor League system, ripe with a number of top prospects. Mason Williams and Manny Banuelos are probably the top hitting and pitching prospects respectively in the Yankees system. Catcher Gary Sanchez might be their top position player, but Williams should be ready to play in the big leagues before the young backstop. Banuelos is coming off of arm surgery, which drops a team's desire to trade for him, but his talent and productivity this far in the minors still makes him a great pickup. Even trading Williams and Banuelos wouldn't get the Marlins to give up Stanton, the Yankees would most likely have to add in a third prospect like Adam Warren, a solid pitching talent who has already thrown a few pitched in the Majors. If the Marlins asked for Brett Gardner, I'm sure the Yankees would have to think twice, but might trade Gardner too. The acquisition of Stanton would give the Yankees incredible meat in their order, and might give them offensive firepower equivalent, if not better than the Angels, Tigers, or Rangers. I'd ballpark the chances the Yankees have of acquiring Stanton at 1:25.

Red Sox: The Red Sox, like the Marlins are rebuilding, but in a different way. The Red Sox are willing to spend money, are always looking to win, and would love to solidify the middle of their order for years to come by trading for Giancarlo Stanton. If the Red Sox were to lose some top prospects, the team could fill those spots via free agency, or look towards winning in the near future rather than the distant one. The Sox system has some talent, especially after trading away some big contracts to the Dodgers in exchange for mostly prospects. A reasonable trade for Stanton would have to include Matt Barnes, Jackie Bradley, and Ruby De La Rosa, if not more. The only reason I'm not putting Xander Bogaerts, the Red Sox top prospect, in the deal is that the Marlins just received a top middle infield prospect in Adeiny Hechavarria from the Blue Jays, which makes Bogaerts less valuable. Even a package like the one I'm proposing might not be enough to sway the Marlins, but those three players could all become above average to dynamic MLB players. I would give the Red Sox 1:30 odds of landing Stanton.

Baltimore Orioles: This situation is vastly different from the first two. The Orioles have recently become viable in the AL East, want to continue that competitiveness, but count on their young players to help, making it more difficult to part with them. For example, the O's brought up top hitting prospect Manny Machado towards the end of 2012 to fill in at third base even though many thought Machado wouldn't be ready for another year. The Orioles currently have the top-pitching prospect in all of Minor League Baseball, Dylan Bundy. His stock will probably never be higher than it is now, but the Orioles would rather bring him up to become the ace of their rotation for the future than trade him. On the other hand, the O's won more than 90 games last season with a mediocre pitching staff, and adding Stanton would give them the power bat they so desperately need in their order. A package of Dylan Bundy and Jason Espisito might coax Miami into moving Stanton, but if the Orioles aren't willing to give up Bundy, they could also offer Jon Schoop, Kevin Gausman, LJ Hoes, and Bobby Bundy, but I doubt even that package would pry Stanton from Miami. If the Orioles are willing to trade Bundy their odds are good, 1:10, but if not, I'd say 1:60 they can acquire Giancarlo.

Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies used their top prospects a few years ago to obtain Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee (the first time), Roy Oswalt, and Hunter Pence, so their farm system is somewhat depleted. On the other hand, the Phillies have the potential to put together an enticing enough package. Stanton would give the Phillies a power right-handed bat in their small park at a small cost. Stanton plus the Phillies pitching staff could put the Phillies in a good position to win another championship. The Phillies have two ways of compiling the necessary goods to get Stanton. One possible trade would be top pitching prospects Trevor May and Jessie Biddle along with outfielder Zach Collier. Neither Biddle nor May are #1 starter material, but both have #2 potential, while Collier is a young, talented, but inexperienced outfielder who has the potential to be a 20 home run, 20 stolen base type player. Another option would be to trade Domonic Brown along with Trevor May and Austin Hyatt. The Phillies don't have the flashy, toolsy, top level prospect the Marlins would be looking for, but could fill out Miami's pitching prospects, a valuable commodity. I'd make their odds of landing Stanton 1:40.

Chicago Cubs: The Cubs are a team unlike any of those that I've already mentioned. This is a team that is also in complete rebuilding mode. Acquiring Stanton would be a nice coup, would secure sell outs at Wrigley, and might even get the Cubs closer to contending in the NL Central than the team is right now. Since many of the players the Marlins might want already play in the Majors, the Cubs do have more to lose than the O's, Yankees, Red Sox, or Phillies, but shouldn't be considered out of the running. A package deal of Brett Jackson, Jeff Samardzija, and Matt Zczur could do the trick. Jackson is ready to play right now, has shown he can hit MLB pitching, and could fill Stanton's spot in the Marlins order. Samardzija is already a very good MLB pitcher with the sky as his limit. He's also only 27 years old. The only players I could see Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer holding onto no matter what would be recently signed Cuban outfielder Jorge Solar and first baseman Anthony Rizzo, everyone else is on the table. Chances the Cubs get Stanton: 1:30.

Overall, I don't think the Marlins are going to trade Giancarlo Stanton this offseason, but given their recent moves, nothing is impossible when it comes to the fish. A dark horse candidate for acquiring Stanton could be the Tampa Bay Rays, given their amount of young pitching, but add in the recent contract extension given to Evan Longoria with Stanton's incoming arbitration eligibility, and the Rays might not be able to afford the right fielder. Also, don't count out the Rangers or Pirates. Stanton has a legitimate reason for requesting a one-way ticket out of Miami, but he's not in a great bargaining position. On the other hand, the Marlins could complete their rebuilding process by trading Stanton and acquiring 3-4 more prospects. One thing is for sure, never say never when dealing with the Marlins.

The Perfect Trade That Won't Happen

It's been a busy week on the hot stove of MLB's offseason. It began with the Blue Jays signing Maicer Izturis to a three-year deal, which was followed by the Marlins/Blue Jays mega-trade resulting in Toronto acquiring shortstop Jose Reyes, pitcher Josh Johnson, and pitcher Mark Buehrle. Next came the Tigers signing Torii Hunter to a two-year contract, and the Braves repairing their platoon at catcher by signing Gerald Laid to a 2-year contract. Following all of that came the Blue Jays signing of PED ridden Melky Cabrera to a 2-year contract.

What can we gather from all of these transactions? The Blue Jays have switched lanes from the middle, to the fast-paced left lane. The Blue Jays have positioned themselves to be the new player in the AL East, joining the Yankees, Rays, Orioles, and Red Sox. Wait, isn't that every team in the AL East? Yep, you got that right. The Blue Jays haven't made the playoffs since 1993, the longest drought in the AL East. More importantly, the team has finished fourth out of fifth in the division in each of the last 5 seasons. The organization thought they had it figured out with J.P. Ricciardi at the helm, but it fell apart, and the team moved on to Alex Anthopoulos. Anthopoulos changed the way the team did business. He built up their international scouting department, changed the way they drafted players, traded off top MLB players for heaps of young prospects, and lowered the team's payroll by 25%.

Last season the Jays had some bright spots and some sore ones. They saw their entire starting pitching staff collapse, including the usually solid Rickey Romero. Hitting wise, things were somewhat more improved. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion showed great power strokes, along with solid contributions from Rajai Davis and rookie Brett Lawrie. Anthopoulos, and his entire front office, knew they had specific areas in which they needed to improve in order to compete with the likes of the Yankees and the Rays. Signing Izturis, trading for Reyes, Johnson, and Buehrle, and signing Melky Cabrera fill a lot of holes, but I don't think the Blue Jays are done. According to sources like Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, the Jays want to continue to upgrade their starting pitching. If reports like Rosenthal's are correct, and I think they are, the Jays need to look either at the free agent market or look to make another trade to acquire help in their starting rotation.

Free agent wise, the Jays have some options. Even though their payroll recently rose, the team can afford to take on more money because they have one of the richest owners in Baseball, and are making the push to win now. The best options out there are Anibal Sanchez, Edwin Jackson, Kyle Lohse, and Dan Haren. Both have issues. Sanchez is looking for $100 million deal, and although his stats have been consistently good, I'm not sure he's worth that much money. Jackson is looking to return to the Nationals, but if the Blue Jays are willing to give the nomadic Jackson a multi-year deal, it might entice him to sign with the team to the north. Lohse might fit in Toronto, but, given the market for pitching, his asking price is inflated, and the Blue Jays may be spending money right now, but since AA became the GM, they spend money judiciously, not superfluously. The most interesting free agent possibility is Haren, but my guess is the Blue Jays want more of a "sure thing" than Haren, but I wouldn't count this out as a possibility.

If not free agency, then why not a trade? The Blue Jays aren't averse to making trades, evidenced by their recent acquisition of almost the entire Marlins 2012 starting lineup. I searched through teams that are in need of something the Blue Jays are willing to trade. Toronto has a stockpile of catchers. J.P. Arencibia, John Buck, and Travis D'arnaud are all trade possibilities, but the issue is finding a team in need of a catcher. The one team that desperately needs an upgrade behind the plate is the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have an abundance of young talented pitching, which is exactly what the Blue Jays are looking for. Here's the problem, this trade will never happen.

Since Andrew Friedman, the Rays General Manager, became the leader of Tampa Bay's front office in 2006, the Rays have only made 10 trades. That's only a little more than 1 trade per season. This lack of trading is due to the fact that the Rays have built their team from their farm system, and that they cannot afford to take on contracts negotiated elsewhere. Still, the reason the Rays and Jays won't make a deal that would so obviously benefit both squads has nothing to do with the Rays financial woes. The reason is that both play in the same division. Interdivisional trades are rare because no team wants to possibly help a team vying for the same spot in the postseason. This becomes magnified in the AL East because even if both wild card spots were to come from the AL East, 2 teams still wouldn't get in.

Just for the fun of it, let's look at what a trade between the Jays and Rays would look like. The Rays current backstop is Jose Molina, brother of Bengie and Yadier. The Rays owe him $1.5 million for 2013, after which he is set to become a free agent. Molina has never been able to combine hitting success with more than 100 games played in a season, but has proven his worth in gold behind the plate. Baseball Prospectus' Ben Lindbergh wrote about how many runs Molina has possibly saved with his play behind the plate. In the end, the Jays would love to platoon a better hitting catcher with Molina, and more importantly, find a catcher for the future, one that hits well and fields well.

Despite trading away top prospects like Adieny Hechavarria and Jake Marisnick to the Marlins, the Jays still have lots of young talent. Last year, J.P. Arencibia and former Jay Jeff Mathis platooned to combine for 2.1 fWAR for Toronto. Neither was a hitting wizard, but Arencibia provided some power hitting 18 home runs, while Mathis showed replacement level hitting stats. Mathis went to Miami in the aforementioned mega-deal, but the Blue Jays acquired former Marlins catcher John Buck. Buck put up a 1.2 fWAR last season providing his value through his ability to walk, and some solid defense. The Rays don't need a defensively minded catcher, so the obvious choice here has to be Arencibia. He hits for power at a young age, and if he can cut down on his strikeouts, might prove to be a solid all-around hitter in the future. On the other hand, the Rays are not going to trade a pitcher like Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, or Jeff Niemann for J.P. Arencibia. The Rays are all about arbitrage, and an Arencibia for Hellickson deal would be a net loss for the Rays.

Travis D'arnaud

So, what's the solution? The answer is Travis D'arnaud. D'arnaud is a soon-to-be 24 year old stud catcher who hasn't played a game in the Major Leagues. The Blue Jays acquired D'arnaud from the Philadelphia Phillies in the deal that send Roy Halladay to Philly. He has matured as a hitter with the ability to hit for power as well as for average. Last year, D'arnaud hit incredibly well in the hot hitting Pacific Coast League, sporting a 147 wRC+, .262 ISO, .415 wOBA, and improved sub 20% strikeout percentage. Behind the plate, D'Arnaud has shown great athleticism combined with a strong arm. He throws runners out well, and if he improves his footwork a bit, he could become quite an adept defender. The overall message is this: Travis D'arnaud would be a perfect fit for the Rays, as their catcher of the future.

A trade of Jeremy Hellickson for D'arnaud would work well for both sides. Hellickson is under contract for cheap in 2013. He'll be arbitration eligible for the first time in 2014, making him most likely affordable for the next 4 seasons. The Blue Jays could also make him a contract extension offer that would cover his arbitration years. Due to D'arnaud's significant upside the Blue Jays would want to lock up any pitcher they received for their top catching prospect. The Rays would lose a proven young pitcher, but they have a number of young pitchers, some proven, some unproven. The Rays would have a young catcher who could start 75 games for them next season, learn from Jose Molina, and get used to MLB pitching. If he shows sparks of greatness the team could perform their favorite magic trick; the one where the Rays lock up a great young player for cheap early in their career (See Evan Longoria and Matt Moore's contracts for more information).

Another possible trade would be Travis D'arnaud and Rajai Davis for Matt Moore. Moore already has a very team friendly contract, and has shown his talent, as well as his ability to improve on the go. Because Moore has a higher upside, and has a very team friendly contract, the Rays might want a little more from the Jays in exchange for Moore. Rajai Davis is owed $2.5 million next season, a very reasonable price tag, even for the Rays, and he projects to steal 40+ bases next season while playing above average defense (according to Baseball Prospectus' projections for 2013). He could assist the Rays in the outfield, especially with the loss of B.J. Upton to free agency, and as a proven MLB player, he would better justify trading Matt Moore for a prospect who hasn't caught one inning in the majors.

More than personel fits, this is a trade between two teams that need to make acquisitions like these in order to compete. Neither team plays in a huge market, and thus cannot attract top tier free agents. This means that trades are great ways to acquire talent. So, let's see what the Blue Jays rotation would look like was the team to deal D'arnaud for a Ray pitcher.

Rays Lefty Matt Moore

Spot	Name	Lefty/Righty
1	Josh Johnson	RHP
2	Mark Buehrle	LHP
3	Brandon Morrow	RHP
4	Rickey Romero	LHP
5	Jeremy Hellickson	RHP
Spot	Name	Lefty/Righty
1	Josh Johnson	RHP
2	Mark Buehrle	LHP
3	Brandon Morrow	RHP
4	Rickey Romero	LHP
5	Matt Moore	LHP

Both of those rotations are formidable, even in the AL East.

A deal between the Rays and Blue Jays would help both teams, solidifying the Jays starting rotation, and giving the Rays a catcher of the future. Oh, but just in case you forgot, it'll never happen. Neither team wants to help the other, even if it means getting exactly what they want. Instead, the Jays will probably sign a free agent pitcher like Dan Haren, and the Rays will look to pursue players like Justin Upton or Josh Willingham. It's too bad, but it is reality.

Exchange Rate: The Maicer Izturis Signing

Today, the Toronto Blue Jays signed former Angles infielder Maicer Izturis to a 3-year $9 million contract with a team option for a 4th year worth another $3 million. Plain and simple, the Blue Jays needed help up the middle. With Brett Lawrie and Edwin Encarnacion securing the corners of the infield, the Blue Jays knew where they needed to improve. The question is, does this move help the team heading into 2013?

Maicer Izturis has spent the last 8 seasons in Los Angeles, playing various infield positions for the Angels. Over that time he compiled 13.3 fWAR, or 1.9 fWAR per season. Let's round up and say Izturis was a 2.0 fWAR player. He did so from age 25 to 31, which doesn't leave a huge amount for someone who will be playing a premium defensive position for his new team. The Blue Jays need a second baseman more than a shortstop, so it seems like Izturis will be playing on the right side of the infield more so than the left. Here's how Izturis looks over all three types of WAR calculations.

	fWAR	rWAR	WARP
2006	2.1	1.6	2.8
2007	2	1.4	1.1
2008	1.7	1.5	0.9
2009	3.4	3.5	2.4
2010	1.2	1.2	0.6
2011	2.2	1.4	1.9
2012	0.7	0.2	-0.7
AVG	1.9	1.542857143	1.285714286
Median	2	1.4	1.1

Izturis has been fairly consistent throughout his career. He's made about $13.5 million over the course of his career, but he's been worth about $57.3 million, which shows that the Angels have been getting a great deal out of Izturis. While I congratulate the Angels, none of this information implies that the Blue Jays will end up in the same boat. Let's analyze what makes Izturis valuable because some skills tend to decline with age, while others remain more constant.

Offensively, Izturis can be described as a "just enough" type hitter. 

	wOBA	wRC+	Tav
2006	0.343	106	0.276
2007	0.332	99	0.264
2008	0.310	86	0.243
2009	0.347	109	0.287
2010	0.307	92	0.257
2011	0.318	102	0.266
2012	0.247	82	0.230

His wOBA had never dipped below .300 until this past season, which shows consistency, but as you can see from his true average, Izturis is about an average hitter, and nothing better. As far as plate discipline goes, Izturis hasn't varied at all throughout his career, proving that last seasons below career-average offensive production may be best explained by Izturis' low BABIP. The league batting average on balls put in play is always right around .300. but Izturis' career BABIP has been higher, at .337. His .320 BABIP in 2012 is a solid 17 percentage points lower than his career average, which most likely comes from his low infield hit percentage. In 2012 Izturis has a 3.4% infield hit percentage in comparison to his career 5.6% mark. Fewer infield hits could point towards his age catching up with him. Speed declines severely as a player ages, and obviously, due to the server offensive decline last season, Izturis' overall production is tied into his above average speed.

The percent of the time that Izturis swings at the pitch thrown, is about half the league average over the last 8 seasons. Combine that with a league average BB%, and it means that in order to make up for Izturis' diminishing ability to get on base when making contact, he will have to increase his ability to walk. If not, we might see a more serious decline in his offensive production.

Defensively, the story is a bit different. Since we can safely assume that Izturis will be playing primarily second base for the Jays, let's look only at his numbers as a second baseman. 

	UZR	FRAA	DRS
2006	0.4	2.8	1
2007	0.7	-1.9	-1
2008	0	2.6	1
2009	7.6	-3.1	7
2010	0.7	-0.4	1
2011	-2.7	0.9	-5
2012	4.7	-3.1	2

Since FRAA doesn't differentiate between positions, those numbers are for Izturis' total defense during the given seasons. As you can see, Izturis has been an above average second baseman, providing some significant defensive value in 2009 and 2012. He has the ability to play the position well, and has done so throughout his career. This shows that while his slight decline in speed has affected his offensive production, defensively it hasn't had an effect. Offensively, a small decline in speed led to a significant decrease, but not at all defensively. Thus, Izturis should remain a solid defender, but will need to show some improvement offensively. 

The Blue Jays owe Itzuris $3 million per season, which is equal to less than 1 fWAR per season. So, if Izturis is able to average at least 1 fWAR per season over the next 3 years, we will look back on this as a solid under-the-radar signing. Izturis replaces former Blue Jays second baseman Kelly Johnson, who outperformed Izturis since 2006, but while Johnson has been slightly better, he hasn't been as consistent as Izturis. The Blue Jays are a team looking to take the next step. They need to find a balance between young and veteran players, and Izturis is just a more veteran, consistent option at second base than Kelly Johnson. Stability is sometimes underrated in Baseball, but given a bleak market at second base, the Blue Jays have opted for consistency at a premium defensive position over volatility. 

I would give this signing a B+. The Blue Jays didn't commit too much financially towards Izturis, and also didn't lock themselves into a long-term deal. If izturis can produce at an average of 1 fWAR per season over the next three years, the Blue Jays will have gotten more value out of him than his contract warrants, which is exactly what every team looks for when making a free agent signing. On the other hand, the Blue Jays have some serious issues in their starting rotation, and need to address those problems moving forward in the offseason. If they can improve their rotation, whether it be by trade or signing free agents, this team has the potential to be in the playoff discussion in 2013.