It's What We Call A Win-WIn

Yesterday, former Rays center fielder B.J. Upton agreed in principle to a 5-year $75 million contract with the Atlanta Braves. Today, Upton officially signed the contract, and the Braves held a subsequent press conference officially announcing the news. After weeks of scouting, crunching numbers, and meetings, the Braves front office zeroed in on Upton as their first choice to take over for departing outfielder Michael Bourn in center field. At the same time, numerous reports came out speaking of the Phillies desire to sign Upton as well. While the Phillies may have been showing interest in Upton in order to increase the amount of money the Braves would need to pay to secure the former Ray, most in the business took the Phillies as a serious threat. It has been reported that the Phillies would not go higher than 5/55 for Upton (numerator is years/denominator is total amount of money), a sign that they either valued him less, saw some flaws that Atlanta either didn't see or overlooked, or truly want another center fielder, but couldn't be seen not going for Justin's older brother.

Nonetheless, the fact remains that Upton is now a Brave, in he'll remain a Brave for 5 more seasons. The Braves, unlike the Phillies, are not willing to spend large sums of money on free agents. An obvious and germain fact given that the contract they gave Upton is the largest ever shelled out by the Braves to a free agent. Atlanta, being a mid-market team, likes to build through the draft, and use their money to either fill in the rest of the spots on the roster or make a splash with one or two bigger names. Up till now, the team had been using the former approach as opposed to the latter. On the other hand, does this most recent signing point to a team that's going to be very active in free agency? It might, but it doesn't imply that Atlanta is focusing any less energy on building their organization from within.

I recently wrote an article about qualifying offers. Essentially, a qualifying offer is a one-year contract offered by a team to a top-50 free agent. The player then has a specific amount of time to decide whether to accept or not. If the player rejects it, hoping to score a longer more lucrative deal on the open market, his former team will now receive a compensatory pick at the end of the first round of next year's draft. The team making the qualifying offer must be willing to have the player accept the deal. This can be difficult for mid-level and small market teams because the value of this one-year deal is usually high, $13.5 million this offseason.

Now that you're caught up on qualifying offers, I can explain the genius behind the Braves recent moves. First a time line.

1) 2012 season ends, Michael Bourn and B.J. Upton head for free agency
2) The Braves make a qualifying offer to Bourn, and the Rays do the same for Upton
3) Both players reject the qualifying offers allowing them to sign with any team they desire
4) Braves sign B.J. Upton to 5-year $75 million contract

Signing Upton means that the Braves won't be resigning Michael Bourn. When Bourn signs with a different team, the Braves will receive a compensatory pick at the end of the first round to replace the first round pick they lost when they signed Upton. Okay, so the pick they will receive for Bourn won't be as high in the first round as the pick the team relinquished, but they now have a center fielder, and still have a 1st round pick. That's the definition of a win-win situation, perfect for a mid-market team.

A small market team wouldn't have the capital to spend on a free agent like Upton, so the prospect of losing a first-round draft pick doesn't exist. This situation is perfectly depicted by the Rays, who will receive a compensatory pick for losing Upton, but won't relinquish their own 1st round pick as they won't be spending money on a top-50 free agent. A big market team, say the Dodgers, have such a plethora of money to spend on free agents at any given time that the loss of a draft pick is a reasonable price to pay. Really, it isn't a good price to pay because draft picks equal capital as much as money in the bank, but big market teams have the flexibility to care less and spend more.

So, the Braves made out like bandits. They will still pick in the first round, and will have a PECOTA predicted 2+ WARP average player for the next 5 seasons. Some of this was made possible by circumstance. If the Braves hadn't had a top 50 free agent they didn't want to resign, signing Upton would have been more costly. So, while it was a win-win for the Braves, as will all things in Baseball, luck and randomness played a part. Still, let's not forget, the job of good front office personnel is to make the best out of the given situation, something Frank Wren's staff performed exceptionally well.

Now that we have correctly congratulated the Braves for a job well done, what comes next? The Phillies, who supposedly lost out on the Upton sweepstakes, still need to find the team's next center fielder. The list may have shrunk by one, but numerous options remain for Ruben Amaro and the Phillies front office. Josh Hamilton, who I argue should be moved to a corner outfield spot, the aforementioned Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan, and Shane Victorino are all still free agents looking for a home. The team could look to trade to fill the post, with Dexter Fowler, Peter Bourjos, and Denard Span rumored to be possible trade candidates, but that costs prospects, not money. More likely, the Phillies are either looking to make a big splash, something they have been prone to do in the recent history, by signing Josh Hamilton, or have something else up their sleeve. With the winer meetings coming up and Upton now a Brave, the chances of the Phillies having a new center fielder very soon has gone up considerably, only adding to the fire in the hot stove.

Exchange Rate: The Maicer Izturis Signing

Today, the Toronto Blue Jays signed former Angles infielder Maicer Izturis to a 3-year $9 million contract with a team option for a 4th year worth another $3 million. Plain and simple, the Blue Jays needed help up the middle. With Brett Lawrie and Edwin Encarnacion securing the corners of the infield, the Blue Jays knew where they needed to improve. The question is, does this move help the team heading into 2013?

Maicer Izturis has spent the last 8 seasons in Los Angeles, playing various infield positions for the Angels. Over that time he compiled 13.3 fWAR, or 1.9 fWAR per season. Let's round up and say Izturis was a 2.0 fWAR player. He did so from age 25 to 31, which doesn't leave a huge amount for someone who will be playing a premium defensive position for his new team. The Blue Jays need a second baseman more than a shortstop, so it seems like Izturis will be playing on the right side of the infield more so than the left. Here's how Izturis looks over all three types of WAR calculations.

	fWAR	rWAR	WARP
2006	2.1	1.6	2.8
2007	2	1.4	1.1
2008	1.7	1.5	0.9
2009	3.4	3.5	2.4
2010	1.2	1.2	0.6
2011	2.2	1.4	1.9
2012	0.7	0.2	-0.7
AVG	1.9	1.542857143	1.285714286
Median	2	1.4	1.1

Izturis has been fairly consistent throughout his career. He's made about $13.5 million over the course of his career, but he's been worth about $57.3 million, which shows that the Angels have been getting a great deal out of Izturis. While I congratulate the Angels, none of this information implies that the Blue Jays will end up in the same boat. Let's analyze what makes Izturis valuable because some skills tend to decline with age, while others remain more constant.

Offensively, Izturis can be described as a "just enough" type hitter. 

	wOBA	wRC+	Tav
2006	0.343	106	0.276
2007	0.332	99	0.264
2008	0.310	86	0.243
2009	0.347	109	0.287
2010	0.307	92	0.257
2011	0.318	102	0.266
2012	0.247	82	0.230

His wOBA had never dipped below .300 until this past season, which shows consistency, but as you can see from his true average, Izturis is about an average hitter, and nothing better. As far as plate discipline goes, Izturis hasn't varied at all throughout his career, proving that last seasons below career-average offensive production may be best explained by Izturis' low BABIP. The league batting average on balls put in play is always right around .300. but Izturis' career BABIP has been higher, at .337. His .320 BABIP in 2012 is a solid 17 percentage points lower than his career average, which most likely comes from his low infield hit percentage. In 2012 Izturis has a 3.4% infield hit percentage in comparison to his career 5.6% mark. Fewer infield hits could point towards his age catching up with him. Speed declines severely as a player ages, and obviously, due to the server offensive decline last season, Izturis' overall production is tied into his above average speed.

The percent of the time that Izturis swings at the pitch thrown, is about half the league average over the last 8 seasons. Combine that with a league average BB%, and it means that in order to make up for Izturis' diminishing ability to get on base when making contact, he will have to increase his ability to walk. If not, we might see a more serious decline in his offensive production.

Defensively, the story is a bit different. Since we can safely assume that Izturis will be playing primarily second base for the Jays, let's look only at his numbers as a second baseman. 

	UZR	FRAA	DRS
2006	0.4	2.8	1
2007	0.7	-1.9	-1
2008	0	2.6	1
2009	7.6	-3.1	7
2010	0.7	-0.4	1
2011	-2.7	0.9	-5
2012	4.7	-3.1	2

Since FRAA doesn't differentiate between positions, those numbers are for Izturis' total defense during the given seasons. As you can see, Izturis has been an above average second baseman, providing some significant defensive value in 2009 and 2012. He has the ability to play the position well, and has done so throughout his career. This shows that while his slight decline in speed has affected his offensive production, defensively it hasn't had an effect. Offensively, a small decline in speed led to a significant decrease, but not at all defensively. Thus, Izturis should remain a solid defender, but will need to show some improvement offensively. 

The Blue Jays owe Itzuris $3 million per season, which is equal to less than 1 fWAR per season. So, if Izturis is able to average at least 1 fWAR per season over the next 3 years, we will look back on this as a solid under-the-radar signing. Izturis replaces former Blue Jays second baseman Kelly Johnson, who outperformed Izturis since 2006, but while Johnson has been slightly better, he hasn't been as consistent as Izturis. The Blue Jays are a team looking to take the next step. They need to find a balance between young and veteran players, and Izturis is just a more veteran, consistent option at second base than Kelly Johnson. Stability is sometimes underrated in Baseball, but given a bleak market at second base, the Blue Jays have opted for consistency at a premium defensive position over volatility. 

I would give this signing a B+. The Blue Jays didn't commit too much financially towards Izturis, and also didn't lock themselves into a long-term deal. If izturis can produce at an average of 1 fWAR per season over the next three years, the Blue Jays will have gotten more value out of him than his contract warrants, which is exactly what every team looks for when making a free agent signing. On the other hand, the Blue Jays have some serious issues in their starting rotation, and need to address those problems moving forward in the offseason. If they can improve their rotation, whether it be by trade or signing free agents, this team has the potential to be in the playoff discussion in 2013. 

Two Outfield Trade Candidates: Shin-Soo Choo

Right now, Major League front offices are clamoring to compile data and information about free agents that they think would be good fits for their team heading into the 2013 season. While free agency is a great way to upgrade a club, another option exists, the trade. Already this offseason we have seen a trade between the Diamondbacks, A's, and Miami Marlins that sent Chris Young to the A's and Heath Bell to Arizona. Trades don't involve long term commitments and writing huge checks like a free agent signing, instead team's can find ways to upgrade their club, whether by addition or subtraction.

Two players whose names have been mentioned as possible trade candidates this offseason are Shin-Soo Choo of the Indians and Josh Willingham of the Twins. As far as positions go, the deepest market this offseason is in the outfield, but teams, especially in small markets, often cannot afford the price tags on free agents, but instead have assets they can trade in order to upgrade. Corner outfielders like Choo and Willingham could provide serious help to teams in need. Let's explore what these players bring to the table, and where they could end up. In this article, I will talk solely about Shin-Soo Choo, and in tomorrow's I will delve into the market for Josh Willingham.

Shin-Soo Choo: The first thing to notice about Choo's career thus far is that when he's healthy, he contributes at above replacement level, but he has been hit by the injury bug a few times. In 5 seasons with the Indians, Choo has averaged ~ 3.7 fWAR per season. That is on par with outfielders like B.J. Upton, Torii Hunter, and Ichiro Suzuki. So, we are talking about a productive player, but where does he derive this production?

Choo has put up very good wOBA and wRC+ numbers the last few seasons, proving that he is a good all around hitter.

	wOBA	wRC+
2008	0.404	150
2009	0.384	134
2010	0.386	145
2011	0.325	105
2012	0.359	131

 His best asset at the plate is his ability to get on base. Over the last 5 seasons, Choo's on base percentage has ranged from as low as .344 to as high as .401. Even in his worst season, Choo still got on base at the same rate as Josh Hamilton, Brett Gardner, and Chipper Jones, which is pretty impressive. Choo's impressive walk rate of ~ 11% per season is good enough to consistently place him in the top 30 hitters in MLB. He has batted in numerous spots in the Indians order over the years, making him quite useful to any manager. Choo is a selective hitter, something that usually does not diminish with age, a good sign for any team looking to deal for him. 

In addition to his propensity to reach base safely, Choo has shown sign of a legitimate power stroke. He has hit at least 20 home runs twice in his career, and his average ISO over the last 5 seasons has been ~ .181, a good mark for a hitter that is careful in selecting which pitch to hit. In addition, Choo has consistently had a better-than-average HR/FB%, meaning that when he hits the ball in the air, he's usually found a pitch he can drive, which fits his profile as a selective hitter. While power tends to drop with age, Choo's ability to slug the ball is a secondary trait, one that any team with the hope to land him shouldn't and most likely wouldn't count on. 

Defensively, Choo has been a bit all over the place. In his last 5 seasons he has played predominantly in right field, but has played a bit in center field as well. Here are some defensive numbers to look at:

	UZR	DRS	FRAA
2008	-2	-1	-5.7
2009	-1	2	4.2
2010	6.1	5	-4.2
2011	2	3	3.6
2012	-17	-12	0.2

 Choo has proven that he can play the outfield fairly well. In 3/5 seasons show, Choo put up positive numbers in both DRS and FRAA, while doing so only twice according to UZR. Last season, neither UZR nor DRS liked Choo's performance, but Baseball Prospectus' fielding runs above average put him as an outfielder that makes about all the plays an average outfielder does. These numbers prove that while his best defensive days may be behind him, if Choo can stay healthy, he will provide adequate enough defensive play for any team willing to acquire him. 

A team willing to trade for Choo would be taking on his current contract. Choo is in his 2nd year of arbitration eligability, which means he wouldn't become a free agent until after the 2013 season. He was awarded $4.9 million in arbitration last season, and that figure should rise somewhat this offseason, but most likely no team will end up paying him more than $10 million next season. 2011 was a down season production-wise for Choo, and according to Fangraphs he was worth just over $11 million, so a year of arbitration eligibility would be a steal for Choo. Given his age, he will turn 31 in July, 2013, a team trading for Choo would want to try to sign him to an extension. If I were a front office, having recently traded for Choo, I would offer him a contract extension in the neighborhood of 3 years and $35 million. That implies he will put up on average about 2.5 fWAR per season, which at his age, and given his past production shouldn't be a problem. 

Teams that should seriously consider trading for Choo include the Pirates, Phillies, Blue Jays, and Orioles. The Indians would most likely want a solid pitching prospect in return for the outfielder. Their asking price can't be too high as Choo is set to reach free agency in 2014 and the current market is flush for outfielders. A trade would give the Indians some more money to throw at possible free agent targets of their own while gaining some more depth in their farm system, which is never a bad thing for a mid-market team.

The Phillies traded Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino before the trade deadline this past season to make room for youngsters Domonic Brown and John Mayberry Jr. while simultaneously replenishing some of their recently depleted farm system. While the team is actively looking to sign a center fielder this offseason, trading for a hitter like Choo might be more cost effective, and would provide more hitters in their lineup to get on base for guys like Howard and Utley to knock in. 

The Pirates have a stud center fielder in Andrew McCutchen, but have had some issues with their corner outfield spots. Youngster Starling Marte looked good, and he, Jose Tabata, and Garrett Jones will vy for the two corner outfield spots heading into 2013. On the other hand, if Neal Huntington, who has said the team does not intend to spend a lot this offseason, traded for Choo, the Buccos could start Choo and Marte alongside McCutchen, making a fairly formidable outfield trio. Their team OBP last season was .304. Choo would come in and have the 2nd highest OBP on the team, and that is using his worst OBP mark from the last 5 years. 

The Blue Jays don't need Shin-Soo Choo, but he could be a good acquisition anyway. If the team were to add Choo, their outfield would sport Colby Rasmus, Jose Bautista, and Choo. He would instantly become in the top 3 on the team in OBP, and it would allow the team to move Bautista to left field, giving them at least an average glove in all three outfield spots. The team has many prospects, but has other areas of improvement to focus on prior to trading for an outfielder, so while this trade would be beneficial, and the team could easily deal a prospect, this trade wouldn't be high on Alex Anthopoulos' offseason priority list.

The Baltimore Orioles represent a dark horse candidate. The team his Nick Markakis in right field, but adding Choo and moving him to left field would give the Orioles a very solid outfield for 2013. This is a team that made the playoffs despite poor overall hitting. Choo would be a great upgrade in the lineup, as he and Markakis had similar lines of production last season, except that Choo scored more runs and stole 20 more bases than Markakis. An outfield of Choo, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis, even for just one season, might be worth giving up someone like Brian Matusz. Pitching wasn't the Orioles issue last season, it was hitting, and adding Choo would definitely bolster their offensive output. 

So, what will happen? I don't know. There is a solid chance that the Indians attempt to sign Choo to a contract extension this offseason, locking him down through 2014 when he is eligible for free agency. On the other hand, if they cannot agree on an extension, a trade is very likely. The Pirates and Orioles make the most sense, but the overall winner of the possible Choo sweepstakes will be determined by the Indians' asking price. Shin-Soo Choo is a solid player whose name has gone under the radar because of the good outfield market this offseason. No free agent outfielder has signed a deal yet, but we have seen the Diamondbacks shed extra outfield weight through a trade, making the possible trade of Choo a little more likely. If the Indians fail to extend their right fielder, look for a possible deal to happen during the Winter Meetings in Nashville in the first week of December.