The Newest Tribesman

Michael Bourn

Yesterday the Indians announced that they had come to an agreement with free agent outfielder Michael Bourn on a 4-year contract worth $48 million, or $12 million AAV. The contract has a vesting option for a 5th year worth $12 million pending Bourn reaches 550 plate appearances in the final year of his contract at which he will be 34 years old. When the offseason began, writers, pundits, and experts ranked Bourn as one of the top free agents. On my own big board of top-50 free agents, I had Bourn ranked as the fourth best free agent behind only Zack Greinke, B.J. Upton, and Josh Hamilton. The Dodgers signed Greinke to a 6-year $159 million deal, Upton got 5 years and $75.25 million from the Braves, while Hamilton inked a 5-year $125 million deal with the Angels. Of the top 4 free agents on my list, Bourn received the fewest years and least amount of money. For more on how Bourn compared to free agent center fielders check out my article from earlier this offseason. For more on Bourn's value, check out this recent Summerpastime article.

Essentially, Bourn is a speedy player. Every positive aspect of his game relies on his wheels. He has a good on-base percentage, but to continue as a dominant leadoff hitter past the age of 30, his walk rate needs to rise. Here's a snapshot look at some of the better leadoff hitters from 2012 and where Bourn ranks:

Name	Team	R	SB	BB%	OBP	fWAR
Mike Trout	Angels	129	49	10.50%	0.399	10
Michael Bourn	Braves	96	42	10.00%	0.348	6.4
Austin Jackson	Tigers	103	12	10.90%	0.377	5.5
Jose Reyes	Marlins	86	40	8.80%	0.347	4.5

So, given the information we know about Bourn, was this deal a success from his position? Going into the offseason Bourn and agent Scott Boras wanted a contract that totaled higher than $100 million with at least 5 guaranteed years. Instead of that mega-deal he signed for less than half that amount of money, but was able to find 4 guaranteed years with the possibility of a 5th. From this we can garner that getting more years was more important to Bourn than getting the highest AAV possible. Prior to Bourn's new contract agreement, many speculated that he might look for a one-year deal, in the hope that he might find better luck next offseason. I think teams in need of outfielders looked at Bourn as an upgrade, a great defender, a threat on the base paths, but not a player built to sustain such qualities by even age 33. Fortunately, free agents willing to take less money have a better chance of finding a deal because it allows teams with less money to become involved in negotiations. The Indians fit that mold perfectly. Jose Reyes received more money and more years, but he signed his contract at a younger age, he switch hits, and has shown more power than Bourn has. So, the answer to the original question is that this contract wasn't a success by Bourn's original standards, but by any realistic set of criterion $12 million AAV is the perfect fit for a player like Michael Bourn. 

From the players perspective this is the best available option, and he took it, but what about from the Indians' perspective. In 2012 Cleveland lost 94 games, and the last time the team went to the playoffs was 2007, remember the bugs? 

The Indians haven't been trending well of recent, which resulted in the firing of manager Manny Acta, the hiring of Terry Francona, and the release of former big-time players like Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore. The Indians of 2013 won't look anything like the team that stormed to the ALCS in 2007, but given the weaknesses in the American League and particularly the AL Central, and the addition of the 2nd wild card spot, the Indians 2013 season outlook continues to improve. 

Since one player cannot turn a 94 loss team into a playoff primed squad, what else have the Indians been up to improve? Chris Antonetti, the GM of the Indians, started his offseason by getting rid of dead weight like Hafner and Sizemore, which allowed him to move on from those well known, but injury hampered, names. Next, Antonetti inserted the Indians into a three-way trade involving the Diamondbacks and the Cincinnati Reds. In exchange for parting with soon-to-be free agent Shin-Soo Choo, the Indians received outfielder Drew Stubbs from the Reds and high-level pitching prospect Trevor Bauer from Arizona. While Bauer is far from a proven commodity, he is young, under team control at a cheap price, and most importantly, loaded with talent and upside. Given the Indians mediocre farm system, Keith Law ranked them 19/30 MLB teams, adding an MLB ready top of the rotation starter like Bauer made the Indians the clear winners of the three-team trade.

Nick Swisher

Next, the Indians made a few minor moves like signing Brett Myers to a 1-year deal as a starter, not a reliever. In addition, Mark Reynolds joined the club to mix in at 1st base and DH. Next the Indians made their biggest splash of the offseason by signing Nick Swisher a 4-year $56 million contract. Swisher has Ohio connections, will make $14 million AAV, and provides a great upgrade in the Indians lineup. With the addition of Bourn, about 32% of the Indians 2013 payroll will go to Swisher and Bourn, but even for a mid-market team, the proportions could be worse. Swisher does every thing the Indians needed, he gets on base, switch hits, has power, and can play both outfield and 1st base. With the addition of Bourn, the Indians have a top of the lineup that could do some serious damage to opposing pitchers, causing them to work harder, throw more pitches, and possibly give up more runs in the process. Given Cleveland's project lineup, 5 starters are projected by PECOTA to have higher .328 OBPs in 2013. Cleveland's new lineup will strikeout more than the average team, but it will also produce more homeruns, a higher on-base percentage, and more stolen bases than it has in the previous 4 seasons.

From a hitting standpoint, Bourn adds run production. With Asdrubal Cabrera, Jason Kipnis, Nick Swisher, Carlos Santana, and Mark Reynolds/Jason Giambi hitting behind Bourn, the Indians and their fans can expect the club to score a lot more runs than they have been accustomed to in recent years. Defensively, the Indians have more options now than before. If Terry Francona, Chris Antonetti, and others want, the team now has the ability to move Drew Stubbs or Michael Brantley for an upgrade elsewhere. On the other hand, a defensive outfield of Brantley, Stubbs, and Bourn would be a vacuum for fly balls.
(2010-2012)

Name	Inn	DRS	UZR	UZR/150
Michael Bourn	3888.2	51	35.3	11.9
Nick Swisher	3201	-5	11.5	4.7
Drew Stubbs	3666	-3	4.8	2
Michael Brantley	2833.2	-10	-12.4	-6.4

Don't be dissuaded by Brantley's poor numbers, he plays a much better left field (8 DRS & 3.4 UZR in 2012) than he does center field. An outfield with Stubbs and Brantley in the corners and Bourn in the middle would have a lot of range, which cuts down on hitters turning doubles in to triples and singles into doubles. Over the course of 162 games, such range could benefit the Indians in a subtle yet vital manner. From the numbers above, Swisher doesn't seem like a bad outfielder, so why relegate him to first base? First, playing a less demanding defensive position might cut down on the possibility of injury. Second, Swisher has average range at 1st base, and has posted a positive DRS (3) since 2010. So, moving Swisher to 1st doesn't hurt in the infield, and it improves the team's overall defense in the outfield. While moving Brantley or Stubbs could help, keeping both might give the Indians the best chance to compete for a playoff spot in 2013.

In Baseball, like all other aspects of life, timing often dictates success or failure. In this case, the timing of the Indians interest in Bourn makes me see this signing as a big win for Cleveland. With spring training approaching and few teams catering to the type of contract Bourn originally wanted, the Indians swept in offered Bourn the security he wanted and snatched him up for a reasonable AAV. While Bourn got the best available deal, the Indians made a smart, savvy, and productive move to improve their club now. Cleveland may not be a hot destination for free agents, but it's considered more highly valued than Kansas City, another AL Central team that improved this winter, albeit through controversial means. This puts Cleveland into the conversation for a playoff spot, a turnaround that 94 loss teams rarely expect. While the two wildcards seem the most likely possibility for Cleveland, I think that the AL West and East are too powerful, and that the best chance the Tribe has of reaching the postseason will be by unexpectedly winning the AL Central. Knocking off the Tigers, who are vastly better than their divisional opponents won't be easy, but given the uncertainty of injuries and other unaccountable factors, the Indians now have a chance. Despite the fact that Bourn rejected a qualifying offer from the Braves, Cleveland won't have to relinquish their first-round pick in the draft as it is protected due to the Indians' abysmal record in 2012. The Indians lost their second-round pick when they signed Swisher, and the acquisition of Bourn causes the team to lose their competitive balance pick, which would have been the 71st overall pick.

The Indians made a great deal here. Most sabermetricians will tell you that Bourn's production will decline in the next few years, and I stand with them, but the Indians are only on the hook for a guaranteed 4 years, and given their lack of other stars, paying Bourn $12 million AAV should be worth it. At the very least, even if the Indians don't make the playoffs in 2013, they should be more exciting to watch, win more games, and thus bring more fans to Progressive Field. On the bright side, Bourn could burn out just around age 34-35, meaning the Indians got the most out of him while they could, another sign that Antonetti made a sly deal. Cleveland got their man, Bourn finally found a team, the rest remains unknown, but that's the fun. 

Upton, Upton and Away

Justin Upton

Since June 2012, www.mlbtraderumors.com has put out 30+ articles with the words Justin Upton rumors in the title. This isn't just a blind fasciation with a specific player; the Diamondbacks have done everything but see Upton on the plane out of Phoenix. Arizona hasn't offered Upton an extension or publicly supported him; instead the team has shopped him all over the league hoping to get the best package in return. Upton still has three affordable years left on his current contract, is the ripe young age of 25 years old, and has compiled 17.1 fWins in his 6 MLB seasons, a combination usually destined for stardom. Upton has numerous skills and few deficiencies, and he's entering the most productive years of his career, and now he has a new team.

Justin Upton the Player:

Who is Justin Upton? Over the last few months we've taken to see him as a commodity, and not a player. Maybe familiarizing ourselves with him will give us greater insight into the Diamondbacks' decision to trade him and the Braves' desire to acquire him.

First of all, Upton is 6 foot 2 inches tall and weighs 205 pounds, a prototypical athlete's build. This is something a scout would say, but many well skilled in analytics would say that it isn't indicative of success. Both the scout and the numbers guy are correct. Not all athletic players are great and not all great players are athletic, but players with the combination of athleticism and the numbers to back it up generally make cases for Cooperstown. Upton's build aids in his ability to stay healthy and his raw combination of speed, power, and agility.

Offensively, Upton has had ups and downs in his career, but never a bad season, so we can safely assume that he won't drop off, and that the numbers we have are reliable. From a power hitting perspective, Upton fits the bill as a middle-of-the-order hitter. While Upton's home run totals have ranged from 17 to 31, he has a total of 2 more home runs in his career than fellow young talented outfielder Adam Jones, signifying a high probability that he will continue to pump out somewhere between 20 and 30 home runs per season for the duration of his prime years.

HR ISO SLG 2007 2 0.143 0.364 2008 15 0.213 0.463 2009 26 0.232 0.532 2010 17 0.17 0.442 2011 31 0.24 0.529 2012 17 0.15 0.43

Upton is a right-handed batter, meaning he might have a problem with right-handed pitching, but as you can see from his platoon splits, Upton hits both righty and lefty pitchers fairly equally.  

PLATOON	AVG	OBP	SLG	TAv
vs L (Multi)	0.278	0.387	0.480	0.294
vs R (Multi)	0.283	0.349	0.460	0.285
Split (Multi)	0.005	-0.038	-0.02	-0.009

Upton's platoon split numbers show an ability to hit righties and lefties, but it also shows a lack of patience or an inability to see right-handed pitching as opposed to left-handed pitching well. Looking at his BB/K ratio splits, 1.04 vs. LHP and 0.37 vs. RHP, further proves this point. So, Upton goes from being a good hitter against righties to a very good hitter against lefties, typical for right-handed hitters.

Defensively, Upton is suited for his position, corner outfield. Using defensive runs saved and ultimate zone rating, it's fairly obvious that Upton is just above average in right field, to the point that he is a defensive asset in comparison to an average right fielder. Given that the Braves have stud right fielder Jason Heyward patrolling right field, Upton will be moved to left-field, a least demanding outfield position, where his defensive numbers will most-likely improve even more. While defense does begin a descent as players age, Upton is only 25, so moving him to left field won't allow any defensive deficiencies to pop up for the near future. 

Upton also presents as an above average baserunner. He has posted a positive, if not above average UBR in each of his 6 seasons in the league, showing both speed and base running acumen. 

2007	BsR
2008	1.1
2009	1.5
2010	3.5
2011	0.7
2012	4.5

Justin Upton the Acquisition:

Martin Prado

So, it turns out to be true, Justin Upton is worth the price of a trade, but what about this specific deal with the Braves? The Braves sent 3B/OF Martin Prado, RHP Randall Delgado, SS Nick Ahmed, RHP Zeke Spruill, and 1B/3B and Brandon Drury. Prado has been a great player, in that he is above average defensively at third base, left field, and previously at 2nd base, while posting career .341 wOBA, 111 wRC+, and .345 OBP. Prado makes his living by swinging. He doesn't walk often, career 7.0 BB%, swings a lot, career 90.1 contact percentage, but still produces 11% more offense than a replacement level player. 

Randall Delgado is the swing player in this deal. I say "swing player" because Delgado is on the cusp of becoming a full-time Major League pitcher. Delgado has a great deal of talent and upside given the impressive comments from scouts, but he hasn't replicated his Minor League success in the big leagues just yet. Delgado is 23, so if he is destined to blossom, it should happen within the next 3 seasons. He's cheap, under team control, and has a mid-90's fastball, sinker/change up combination that induces ground balls. On the other hand, he also has issues with his control, posting a 3.95 BB/9 rate in his career. In addition to his high walk rate, Delgado, despite his power four-seamer, posted a 50.2 GB% last season showing a pitcher who isn't going to post high strikeout numbers, but has a power sinker that has serious movement. That serious movement probably causes some of his wildness, so if Diamondbacks pitching coach Charles Nagy can work on keeping Delgado calm on the mound, and confident in his abilities, his walk numbers should come down a bit as the velocity on his fastball comes down. Fausto Carmona went through a similar situation when pitching in Cleveland.

As for the other three players in this deal, all three are prospects. Nick Ahmed is a polished shortstop that does everything well, but isn't exceptional in any category. He plays solid defense, has good speed, makes good contact, but doesn't project as more than a replacement level shortstop. Given most teams' lack of depth in up-the-middle position prospects, Ahmed becomes more valuable than his numbers/skills indicate. Look for the Diamondbacks to either move Ahmed for another pitcher, the rumor mill seems to think the Tigers' Rick Porcello, or to keep him to compete with Didi Gregorius as the future shortstop in Arizona. Spruill is an interesting prospect. He's similar to Delgado, but has no MLB experience under his belt. He's a righty with speed and multiple useable pitches, and has received positive scouting reports noting him as a future #3 type starter. This gives the Diamondbacks 4 young near MLB-ready or MLB-ready pitchers, one more than they had going into the offseason. While Trevor Bauer has the possibility to be a top-15 starting pitcher in the Majors for the next 10 years, Spruill isn't too far off, and he represents only 1/5 of the package the Dbacks received for Upton. 

Who Got the Best Deal:

GM Frank Wren

In this case, I'm going to say that it's a tie. In the short term, the Braves won. In fact, I think the Braves won this deal for the next 3 seasons. Once Upton's current contract expires and he is looking at a contract worth approximately $150 million, the Braves won't be able to afford him. Sure, his brother B.J. is signed on with Atlanta for 5 seasons, but that won't be enough to persuade brother Justin from leaving for the big money.  Upton is a stud, but not a star. Stardom comes with consistency, so when Justin Upton shows true consistency, we can dub him a star, but for now he is just a stud. On the other hand, I would say fellow Braves outfielders Jason Heyward and B.J. Upton are also studs. The Braves look like they traded a lot for Upton, but given his age, and previous experience, Justin is worth it. Oh, and there's the added bonus that the Diamondbacks also sent third baseman Chris Johnson to Atlanta. This is a downgrade from Prado, but when you add Johnson's projected numbers to Upton's projections, then subtract Prado's projections, the Braves have made a serious offensive upgrade. The Braves had to make a move like this if they wanted to have a chance to win the NL East since the Nationals, at least on paper, look to be the favorites to win the east for a second consecutive season. 

Braves Grade: A- (The Braves should continue to draft well, so replenishing the farm system won't be difficult. Given that they made a significant upgrade at a time when they had to in order to compete for the playoffs, makes me like this trade a lot.)

GM Kevin Towers

The Diamondbacks might regret this move for a season or two, but in the long run I expect them to be declared the winners of this deal. Every player they acquired other than Martin Prado is under team control at a cheap price for a minimum of 5 years. That being said, the Diamondbacks are reportedly looking to finalize a contract extension with Prado. In addition, if Kevin Towers moves Ahmed and another piece to Detroit for Rick Porcello, the Diamondbacks will have incredible pitching and outfield depth as well as great young hitters at catcher, 2nd base, and 1st base. The Diamondbacks are a middle market team, meaning they aren't usually blessed with options, yet this franchise is full of them. Towers has given himself flexibility where it counts. Outfielders can switch positions and lend themselves easily to platoon splitting while pitchers are oft-injured, so having a stock piling of players at both positions gives the Diamondbacks enough backup options to keep them contending with the newly strengthen NL West for years to come. The one possible move that some say will happen and some say shouldn't is a trade of Jason Kubel. Kubel provides a great power bat against right-handed pitching as well as a propensity to hit lots of home runs and doubles in the big alleys at Chase Field. In my opinion, the Diamondbacks should keep Kubel, since even the acquisition of Martin Prado doesn't make up for the offense lost with Upton's relocation. 

Diamondbacks Grade: A (They have everything they want, and more importantly, the options to further improve. If Upton becomes the next Hank Aaron Towers will be pissed, but this trade allows the Dbacks to compete in 2013 as well as 2014-2018.

My Grade: A

Winter Meetings: Day 2

Baseball's Winter Meetings in Nashville, Tennessee got off to a quick start yesterday with a number of free agent signings including Mike Napoli, Joakim Soria, Angel Pagan, and James Loney. No contract was signed that totaled more than $40 million, but each contract signing improved the club involved, and made the players involved all rich men with secure jobs, something the average American cannot claim. So, what happend in day 2?

Dan Haren

Washington Nationals sign Dan Haren to 1-year $13 million contract: The Nationals are always making headlines with their pitching. Most recently, the club traded young fireballer Alex Meyer to the Twins in exchange for center fielder Denard Span. That move opened up a lot of moves for the Nats involving position players, but while tons of rumors have been flying concerning Adam LaRoche and Michael Morse, it was the Nats rotation that got a boost on day 2. Haren, most recently rumored to have been traded from the Angels to the Cubs, should be happy about this deal. He has a chance to bounce back and prove he deserves a longer term deal going into 2014, while simultaneously making $13 million for one year's work. Haren's numbers last year were not good, and combined with a hip injury, he didn't look like a player who could garner more than $10 million for one season going into 2013. Haren projects well according to PECOTA due in large part to his recent history, which has been very good. Harne's drop in fastball velocity isn't a good sign, but the better pitcher learn to get around drops in velocity by throwing more strikes on the corners, and outsmarting hitters using pitch selection and movement. Here's the best part of this deal, Haren doesn't have the pressure on him that he could have had elsewhere. The Nationals may be a playoff contendor, but Haren isn't the 1st, 2nd, or even 3rd starter for D.C.'s team, he's 4th at best. If Haren can post the 3.51 FIP Bill James expects him to, he'll provide plenty of value to the Nats. The Nationals are paying a steep price here for someone trending the wrong way, but it's only for one year, and the Nationals, while built to win now, are also built to win in 2 years.
My Grade: B

Shane Victorino

Red Sox sign Shane Victorino to a 3-year $39 million contract: First of all, congrats to Shane on this contract. Victorino will receive 30% more money per season over the course of his deal with the Red Sox than Angel Pagan will receive in his deal with the Giants. So did the Red Sox overpay? The first reaction on Twitter was that this deal won't work out well for the Red Sox. Much of this reaction is based on Victorino's 2012 performance. After 4 straight seasons over 100 wRC+, Victorino managed only a 94 in that category. In addition, Vicctorino's .310 wOBA, .128 ISO, and 8.0% BB rate were all 5 year lows for the Flyin' Hawaiian. On the other hand, Vic stole 39 bases last season, and hit left-handed pitchers to the tune of a .391 wOBA. Shane's defense and base running remained fixtures of his overall value last season posting a 2.3 UBR, 2 DRS, and 4.4 UZR last season splitting time between the Phillies and the Dodgers. The reason this deal works well for the Red Sox isn't necessarily clear on the surface, so let's look deeper. Victorino hits better from the right side than the left, and what sits so obtrusively in left field at Fenway Park? If you guess the Green Monster, you would be correct. In order to get on base at Fenway, all a hitter needs to do is hit a ball off of the Green Monster, which is located only 320 or so feet away from home plate. Once Shane gets on base he is a threat to steal, allowing bigger bats like Johnny Gomes, David Ortiz, and Mike Napoli to knock him in. Defensively Victorino can play right field, and if the Red Sox decide to move Ellsbury at the trade deadline, Shane can move from right to center field. The Red Sox signed Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino for 3 years at a combined total of $78 million. B.J. Upton recently signed a 5-year $75.25 million contract. So the Sox get two older players for about the same amount of money as the Braves got Upton. Looks bad, but Victorino and Napoli are more projectable, whereas Upton was signed based a lot on unproven talent. Seems like the Red Sox are making smart signings, not flashy ones.
My Grade: B+ (Sure, this might not turn out the way the Red Sox want it to, but it gives them enough options to make me think it will work out well for both sides.)

As usual, hundreds of rumors for all sorts of players were thrown around today. Some included Diamondbacks young studs Tyler Skaggs and Trevor Bauer, while others concerned R.A. Dickey and Justin Upton. From what I can tell, the second that Zack Greinke works out a deal with either the Dodgers or the Rangers (currently the two likeliest candidates), we will see a lot more signings. The other interesting factoid is that Michael Bourn remains unsigned. A Scott Boras client, Bourn, like Prince Fielder last season could go another month without signing a contract, but my guess is that he ends up with a contract in the next 2 weeks. For more on the Winter Meetings, check out the Summerpastime Facebook page at www.facebook.com/SummerPastime or check out the Summerpastime Twitter feed at @summerpastime.

A Game of Dominoes

Denard Span

First the Braves signed B.J. Upton to a 5-year contract worth $75 million. Now the Nationals have traded for now former Twins center fielder Denard Span. Dave Cameron does a great job summing up the trade at Fangraphs, so I'll spare you the gory details. One thing Cameron makes note of is that the acquisition of Span means the Nationals now have surplus of outfielders. Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper will retain their spots, with Harper shifting to a corner spot, but it leaves no room for Michael Morse. Morse, who was acquired by the Nationals from the Mariners for Ryan Langerhans, has blossomed into a legitimate right-handed masher.

Michael Morse:

	Games Played	ISO	wRC+	wOBA	fWAR
2010	98	0.229	134	0.377	1.1
2011	146	0.247	148	0.390	3.3
2012	102	0.180	113	0.340	0.1

Michael Morse

Not only has Morse become a power bat, he's under team control for 2013 at a price of $6.75 million, an undervalued price if he puts up numbers similar to his recent past. The Nationals don't want to get rid of Morse, but now there is no room for him. Well, maybe not so fast. Morse has played 123 games at first base, and the Nationals currently have no first baseman.

	2012
	OF	1B
UZR	-21.9	0.5
DRS	-4	0

Looking at these numbers from 2012, from a fielding standpoint, Morse not only stops hurting a team when he plays first base instead of outfield, he helps the cause. So, what can we conclude? The simple answer here is, move Morse to first and move on to the next problem.

Nationals fans might be saying, "What about Adam LaRoche?" LaRoche played first base for the National last season, and he did it with extreme proficiency. At the plate, LaRoche posted a 3.8 fWAR that breaks down into a .361 wOBA, 127 wRC+, and a 6.1 UZR. LaRoche is a free agent with whom the Nationals have been in discussions with for a possible contract, but recently those discussions have begun to turn sour. In addition, the most recent news has the Red Sox in talks with LaRoche, another sign pointing towards the Nationals removing themselves from contention to sign him, and to simply move Morse to first permanently to replace the departed LaRoche. 

PECOTA sees LaRoche's 2012 as a bad predictor of his future numbers. According to the system developed by Nate Silver, LaRoche will post something close to 0.7 WARP over the next 3 seasons, with some wiggle room on either side. While LaRoche could be better than PECOTA predicts, he also present injury concerns, and at age 33 he isn't getting any younger. Also, first basemen are very replaceable given the relative ease that comes with playing the position, and the number of power hitters that occupy 1st base. 

So, what will be the next domino to fall? Upton's signing begot the trade for Span, and the acquisition of Span will beget something else. So, let's speculate. The Phillies are thought to be the next team to sign or make a deal for a center fielder in order to keep up with the Braves in the NL East, so could they be involved in the next deal? It would seem as though the options are dwindling for the Fightin' Phillies, but as a team with money to spend, the Phillies still have lots of options. The Phillies could spend big and pay for Josh Hamilton, spend less to acquire Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan, or Shane Victorino, make a trade for a center fielder like Peter Bourjos or Dexter Fowler, or acquire a player at a different position like third base, forcing the team to platoon John Mayberry Jr. and Nate Schierholtz in center field. 

The Braves made a clever and efficient move by grabbing the guy they want at a reasonable price, while the Nationals made a smart move by trading for a center fielder to solve a problem in center field as well as first base, now it's time to see what the Phillies can do to counter. Recently, I postulated that the Phillies should fill the void in center field by trading for the Rockies Dexter Fowler. As of now, I would expand that list to include Angels' outfielder Peter Bourjos. By filling the hole via trade, the Phillies should then sign Nick Swisher to a reasonable contract. Swisher, Fowler/Bourjos, and Domonic Brown roaming the confines of Citizens Bank Park's outfield would be the counterpunch. 

Peter Bourjos

How do Trevor May and Zach Collier for Peter Bourjos sound? On paper it isn't a bad deal for either the Phillies or the Angels. Bourjos is essentially Denard Span, but a little younger, and slightly less expensive. The Angels have a center fielder named Mike Trout; maybe you've heard of him, who makes Bourjos expendable. If the Angels can't can't sign Zack Greinke, having another young pitching prospect in the form of Trevor May can't hurt. The Angels clear more payroll, the Phillies get a solid defensive center fielder with speed who projects to put up and average of 1.7 WARP over the next 4 seasons, and the Phillies have found the proper retaliatory response to the Nats and Braves' moves. 

The offseason can be a mix of a chess match, boxing match, and poker hand all at once. The number of influences on a team that can manipulate the decisions made are vast, and always growing, putting every team on higher alert every successive year. With the winter meetings coming up, a number of free agents are set to sign deals, and many more trades are prime to come about, hopefully including a response from the Phillies.  

It's What We Call A Win-WIn

Yesterday, former Rays center fielder B.J. Upton agreed in principle to a 5-year $75 million contract with the Atlanta Braves. Today, Upton officially signed the contract, and the Braves held a subsequent press conference officially announcing the news. After weeks of scouting, crunching numbers, and meetings, the Braves front office zeroed in on Upton as their first choice to take over for departing outfielder Michael Bourn in center field. At the same time, numerous reports came out speaking of the Phillies desire to sign Upton as well. While the Phillies may have been showing interest in Upton in order to increase the amount of money the Braves would need to pay to secure the former Ray, most in the business took the Phillies as a serious threat. It has been reported that the Phillies would not go higher than 5/55 for Upton (numerator is years/denominator is total amount of money), a sign that they either valued him less, saw some flaws that Atlanta either didn't see or overlooked, or truly want another center fielder, but couldn't be seen not going for Justin's older brother.

Nonetheless, the fact remains that Upton is now a Brave, in he'll remain a Brave for 5 more seasons. The Braves, unlike the Phillies, are not willing to spend large sums of money on free agents. An obvious and germain fact given that the contract they gave Upton is the largest ever shelled out by the Braves to a free agent. Atlanta, being a mid-market team, likes to build through the draft, and use their money to either fill in the rest of the spots on the roster or make a splash with one or two bigger names. Up till now, the team had been using the former approach as opposed to the latter. On the other hand, does this most recent signing point to a team that's going to be very active in free agency? It might, but it doesn't imply that Atlanta is focusing any less energy on building their organization from within.

I recently wrote an article about qualifying offers. Essentially, a qualifying offer is a one-year contract offered by a team to a top-50 free agent. The player then has a specific amount of time to decide whether to accept or not. If the player rejects it, hoping to score a longer more lucrative deal on the open market, his former team will now receive a compensatory pick at the end of the first round of next year's draft. The team making the qualifying offer must be willing to have the player accept the deal. This can be difficult for mid-level and small market teams because the value of this one-year deal is usually high, $13.5 million this offseason.

Now that you're caught up on qualifying offers, I can explain the genius behind the Braves recent moves. First a time line.

1) 2012 season ends, Michael Bourn and B.J. Upton head for free agency
2) The Braves make a qualifying offer to Bourn, and the Rays do the same for Upton
3) Both players reject the qualifying offers allowing them to sign with any team they desire
4) Braves sign B.J. Upton to 5-year $75 million contract

Signing Upton means that the Braves won't be resigning Michael Bourn. When Bourn signs with a different team, the Braves will receive a compensatory pick at the end of the first round to replace the first round pick they lost when they signed Upton. Okay, so the pick they will receive for Bourn won't be as high in the first round as the pick the team relinquished, but they now have a center fielder, and still have a 1st round pick. That's the definition of a win-win situation, perfect for a mid-market team.

A small market team wouldn't have the capital to spend on a free agent like Upton, so the prospect of losing a first-round draft pick doesn't exist. This situation is perfectly depicted by the Rays, who will receive a compensatory pick for losing Upton, but won't relinquish their own 1st round pick as they won't be spending money on a top-50 free agent. A big market team, say the Dodgers, have such a plethora of money to spend on free agents at any given time that the loss of a draft pick is a reasonable price to pay. Really, it isn't a good price to pay because draft picks equal capital as much as money in the bank, but big market teams have the flexibility to care less and spend more.

So, the Braves made out like bandits. They will still pick in the first round, and will have a PECOTA predicted 2+ WARP average player for the next 5 seasons. Some of this was made possible by circumstance. If the Braves hadn't had a top 50 free agent they didn't want to resign, signing Upton would have been more costly. So, while it was a win-win for the Braves, as will all things in Baseball, luck and randomness played a part. Still, let's not forget, the job of good front office personnel is to make the best out of the given situation, something Frank Wren's staff performed exceptionally well.

Now that we have correctly congratulated the Braves for a job well done, what comes next? The Phillies, who supposedly lost out on the Upton sweepstakes, still need to find the team's next center fielder. The list may have shrunk by one, but numerous options remain for Ruben Amaro and the Phillies front office. Josh Hamilton, who I argue should be moved to a corner outfield spot, the aforementioned Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan, and Shane Victorino are all still free agents looking for a home. The team could look to trade to fill the post, with Dexter Fowler, Peter Bourjos, and Denard Span rumored to be possible trade candidates, but that costs prospects, not money. More likely, the Phillies are either looking to make a big splash, something they have been prone to do in the recent history, by signing Josh Hamilton, or have something else up their sleeve. With the winer meetings coming up and Upton now a Brave, the chances of the Phillies having a new center fielder very soon has gone up considerably, only adding to the fire in the hot stove.

Hamilton Wants The Benjamins

Today, via the Dallas Morning News, it was reported that Josh Hamilton and his agent will seek a 7-year contract worth approximately $175 million. Hamilton was the 2010 American League MVP, and since joining the Rangers in 2008 has averaged ~ 4.5 fWAR per season. Hamilton is 31 years old and only getting older, so let's assume that in a 7 year contract he will average 4.5 WAR for 4 years and 2.5 WAR for 3 years. That would mean that he would accumulate 25.5 WAR. According to the current $$/WAR estimates, Hamilton would be worth between $115 and $120 million.

So, Hamilton is seeking a contract that is roughly $55 million more than he will be worth over the next 7 seasons. Now, this is merely a prediction on my part, I didn't factor in inflation, the fact that $/WAR goes up every season, and the value he provides a team in ticket sales, merchandise sales, and overall fan interest. So, given all of that, it's quite possible that were a team to sign Hamilton to a 7-year $175 million contract, they may only end up overpaying him by about $3 million per season, a reasonable figure in the long run. In addition, if the team that signs Hamilton moves him, as it should, to a corner outfield spot, his chances of getting injured should drop, thus allowing his offensive production to pick up. It could make him more valuable, thus justifying the money just a bit more.

Hamilton, who has made it known that he would like to remain in Texas, will allow the Rangers to match any offer made to him throughout the offseason. Jon Daniels and his baseball operations department love to give prospects a chance, and have been known to use the trade, rather than free agent signings, to add to the Rangers roster. On the other hand, Hamilton has been a fan favorite and fixture in Texas since bursting onto the scene there in 2008. If he were to sign elsewhere, Daniels and his staff would need to replace his presence with another big name like Zack Greinke or B.J. Upton. To add one more caveat, the Rangers have tendered Hamilton a qualifying offer, which he could still accept. If so, he would make $13.3 million next year, and would become a free agent after the 2013 season. If he declines the offer, any team that signs Hamilton will forfeit their 1st round draft pick to the Rangers, but most likely, any team willing to give Hamilton a contract is willing to give up their 1st round pick.

Hamilton's asking price is high, but why shouldn't he ask for as much as he can? As a free agent his job is to agree to the most money possible, it is the job of the team that signs him to determine everything else. Hamilton's major issue this past season was his increased tendency to strikeout. He had a career high K% of 25.5%, which is well above the AL average of 19.3%. Also, Hamilton's overall production any return if he was to stop trying to hit home runs. His fly ball percentage rose from 37.6% in 2011 to 41.1% 2012 while his line drive percentage remained the same. Hamilton's home run total was the highest of his career in 2012, but his tendency to hit more fly balls may have led to fewer overall hits. This is proven through Hamilton's drop in his infield hit percentage which went down from 9.0% to 6.5% from 2011 to 2012. Moving Hamilton from center field to a corner outfield spot, and working with him to hit the ball in the air a bit less often could increase his production to a 6.0 WAR player, which would justify a contract of $25 million per season for 7 years.

The Supermarket of Center Fielders

Slugger Josh Hamilton

A center fielder here, a center fielder there, center fielders everywhere. I know it sounds silly, but that little ditty describes the 2012-2013 free agent market with remarkable accuracy. Not only is this winter's market chock full of center fielders, but it's full of valuable ones. While there are very weak options at numerous other positions, outfield, and specifically center field has a number of great options. Some are flashy big name candidates like Josh Hamilton and Michael Bourn, and others are solid options with the potential for more like B.J. Upton and Angel Pagan.

Here is some general information on these 4 players:

	Age	Bats/Throws	Experience
Hamilton	31	L/L	6 Years
Upton	28	R/R	7 years
Bourn	29	L/R	6 Years
Pagan	31	S/R	7 Years

All 4 of these players are about the same age, and they have all played about the same number of MLB seasons. Angel Pagan offers the most versatility because he can hit from both sides of the plate, but rarely does sidedness change a team's decision on whether to sign a player or not. Let's go a little more in depth.

Best hitter: The best overall hitter amongst these players is Josh Hamilton. This shouldn't come as a surprise. Hamilton was the American league most valuable player in 2010. He is the only true power hitter of the bunch, notching the highest wRC+ at 140, and hitting for the highest wOBA at .387. Hamilton is a slugger, averaging about 33 home runs per season over the last three years. He easily has the highest ISO of this foursome at .292. Hamilton is the pure hitter of the bunch, and honestly, any team that signs him should seriously consider making him a corner outfielder that takes some reps as a designated hitter (pending he remains in the AL). Not only does Hamilton hit well, but he also gets on base, sporting the 2nd best BB% of these four at 9.4%. None of this is all that surprising. Hamilton is a middle-of-the-order hitter, Pagan and Bourn are best as leadoff hitters, and Upton is the lone enigma, sporting the best potential to hit both for power and to use his speed.

Michael Bourn

Best Fielder:

	FRAA	UZR	DRS
Hamilton	-1.5	-12.6	-9
Upton	-6.5	-2.4	-4
Bourn	0.4	22.4	24
Pagan	10.9	0.1	-6

When looking into fielding, metrics only tell some of the story. On the other hand, I've seen all four of these outfielders play, and the three distinct fielding metrics seen above tell the story very well. Michael Bourn is without a doubt the best fielder of this bunch. Bourn, along with Jason Heyward and Martin Prado made for the best combined defensive outfield in MLB last season. Atlanta is a larger than average sized park, giving Bourn a great deal of room to cover. Bourn's incredible speed, above average arm, and very good instincts make him the best current defensive center fielder, but speed diminishes quickly, and any team that signs Bourn to a long-team contract should know that Bourn probably won't be able to keep up this production in center field in the long-term. Interestingly, Baseball Prospectus' preferred defensive metric FRAA, values Angel Pagan higher than Michael Bourn. Fielding runs above average is not a zone-based metric, instead if looks at the plays made by the average defender at the given position and compares it to the plays made by the given player. Pagan's 10.9 is considered excellent, while Bourn's 0.4 puts him at about average. Due to the difference in calculation between these defensive metrics, a team looking to upgrade their defense in center field might see Pagan as a better short-term option as he combines average defense in terms of range and an excellent defender in terms of play-by-play comparison. 

Most Potential: The player with the most potential is definitely B.J. Upton. Upton is the youngest player of these four, with a great set of tools. Many think that Upton needs a change of scenery, as the Rays drafted him hoping for superstar potential, but he never lived up to the hype. Upton has averaged a 3.9 fWAR over his last 6 seasons, all leading up his prime years (27-32 years old). Upton has a very strong arm, great speed, and has shown the ability to hit for power. Upton's issues revolve around his high strikeout rate, ranging from 28.1% to 21.2% combined with his low walk rate, which has ranged from as low as 7% to as high as 15.2%. Josh Hamilton and Michael Bourn are clearly flashier candidates, but due to those two, Upton has the chance to fly under the radar. His relative youth, skill set, and consistently moderate productivity make him the player with the best chance to break out and become a star.

Angel Pagan

Best Value: 

	WARP	fWAR	rWAR
Hamilton	3.9	4.4	3.4
Upton	2.1	3.3	2.6
Bourn	3.7	6.4	6.0
Pagan	4.7	4.8	4.0

So, Josh Hamilton is the best hitter, Michael Bourn the best defender, and B.J. Upton has the most upside, but the best value at centerfield has to be Angel Pagan. Obviously, if a team is in need of a power hitter, the only choice is Hamilton, but looking at all four players objectively; Pagan provides the best overall package. From a hitting perspective, Pagan's .334 wOBA and 113 wRC+ put him second amongst these four players in both categories, and his .152 ISO was at league average for 2012. Pagan is a versatile player; he is a switch hitter, but can also bat in many spots in the batting order. He provides above average defense, and has proven he can play well in one of the largest parks in the Majors in San Fancisco. Pagan is 31 years old, so a long-term deal would not make sense, but he might provide the best overall value over the next 3 seasons in comparison to Hamilton, Bourn, and Upton. Upton is an unknown, Hamilton is one-dimensional and has had substance abuse problems in the past, while Bourn's game is based around speed, which diminishes rapidly as age increases. 

Best Fits:

Josh Hamilton is set to make a boatload of money. From the team perspective, his best value is in a 3 to 4-year contract, but with Hamilton looking of something more in the range of 7-8 seasons, it minimizes the number of good pairings. Teams that make the most sense for Hamilton are mid-major teams like Seattle, Baltimore, and Milwaukee. All three teams would most likely attempt to move him to a corner outfield spot, but that would be a solid career move for Hamilton to accept. 

Michael Bourn is a speedster, who will immediately upgrade a team's defense in the outfield, and solidify any team's leadoff spot in the batting order. Teams that make sense for Bourn are the Yankees, Nationals, Giants, and Dodgers. 

B.J. Upton

B.J. Upton is the most difficult player on this list to place. The biggest difficulty in signing Upton will be that any team to do so will most likely end up overpaying him. If we project Upton to continue to put up ~ 4.0 fWAR over the next 4 seasons, he would be worth about $80 million. On the other hand, insider Jon Heyman of CBS Sports projects Upton to sign a contract in the 5-year $60 million range. Teams that would fit Upton include the Phillies, Nationals, Rangers, Braves, and Dodgers.

Lastly, let's consider Angel Pagan. Pagan is a solid all around player. The only knock on him is that unlike these other 4 players, Pagan has only put up really good numbers in two out of his 7 seasons in MLB. Otherwise, Pagan is a great option, due to his offensive flexibility, defensive abilities, and experience. Unlike these other four center fielders, any deal Pagan signs will most likely be shorter-term and less expensive, thus he becomes a good option to a team looking to upgrade in center field without spending a lot of money. In addition, the Giants didn't make a qualifying offer to Pagan, meaning any team that signs him won't lose their first round draft selection. A good contract for both Pagan and the team that signs him would be in the area of 4 years worth about $45 million. Teams that make sense include the Phillies, Giants, Dodgers, Rangers, Braves, and Nationals. 

In the end, all four players are solid outfield options. The only things we truly know are that all four players will become very rich men, and, going into the 2013 season, four teams will have new center fielders.