The Newest Tribesman

Michael Bourn

Yesterday the Indians announced that they had come to an agreement with free agent outfielder Michael Bourn on a 4-year contract worth $48 million, or $12 million AAV. The contract has a vesting option for a 5th year worth $12 million pending Bourn reaches 550 plate appearances in the final year of his contract at which he will be 34 years old. When the offseason began, writers, pundits, and experts ranked Bourn as one of the top free agents. On my own big board of top-50 free agents, I had Bourn ranked as the fourth best free agent behind only Zack Greinke, B.J. Upton, and Josh Hamilton. The Dodgers signed Greinke to a 6-year $159 million deal, Upton got 5 years and $75.25 million from the Braves, while Hamilton inked a 5-year $125 million deal with the Angels. Of the top 4 free agents on my list, Bourn received the fewest years and least amount of money. For more on how Bourn compared to free agent center fielders check out my article from earlier this offseason. For more on Bourn's value, check out this recent Summerpastime article.

Essentially, Bourn is a speedy player. Every positive aspect of his game relies on his wheels. He has a good on-base percentage, but to continue as a dominant leadoff hitter past the age of 30, his walk rate needs to rise. Here's a snapshot look at some of the better leadoff hitters from 2012 and where Bourn ranks:

Name	Team	R	SB	BB%	OBP	fWAR
Mike Trout	Angels	129	49	10.50%	0.399	10
Michael Bourn	Braves	96	42	10.00%	0.348	6.4
Austin Jackson	Tigers	103	12	10.90%	0.377	5.5
Jose Reyes	Marlins	86	40	8.80%	0.347	4.5

So, given the information we know about Bourn, was this deal a success from his position? Going into the offseason Bourn and agent Scott Boras wanted a contract that totaled higher than $100 million with at least 5 guaranteed years. Instead of that mega-deal he signed for less than half that amount of money, but was able to find 4 guaranteed years with the possibility of a 5th. From this we can garner that getting more years was more important to Bourn than getting the highest AAV possible. Prior to Bourn's new contract agreement, many speculated that he might look for a one-year deal, in the hope that he might find better luck next offseason. I think teams in need of outfielders looked at Bourn as an upgrade, a great defender, a threat on the base paths, but not a player built to sustain such qualities by even age 33. Fortunately, free agents willing to take less money have a better chance of finding a deal because it allows teams with less money to become involved in negotiations. The Indians fit that mold perfectly. Jose Reyes received more money and more years, but he signed his contract at a younger age, he switch hits, and has shown more power than Bourn has. So, the answer to the original question is that this contract wasn't a success by Bourn's original standards, but by any realistic set of criterion $12 million AAV is the perfect fit for a player like Michael Bourn. 

From the players perspective this is the best available option, and he took it, but what about from the Indians' perspective. In 2012 Cleveland lost 94 games, and the last time the team went to the playoffs was 2007, remember the bugs? 

The Indians haven't been trending well of recent, which resulted in the firing of manager Manny Acta, the hiring of Terry Francona, and the release of former big-time players like Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore. The Indians of 2013 won't look anything like the team that stormed to the ALCS in 2007, but given the weaknesses in the American League and particularly the AL Central, and the addition of the 2nd wild card spot, the Indians 2013 season outlook continues to improve. 

Since one player cannot turn a 94 loss team into a playoff primed squad, what else have the Indians been up to improve? Chris Antonetti, the GM of the Indians, started his offseason by getting rid of dead weight like Hafner and Sizemore, which allowed him to move on from those well known, but injury hampered, names. Next, Antonetti inserted the Indians into a three-way trade involving the Diamondbacks and the Cincinnati Reds. In exchange for parting with soon-to-be free agent Shin-Soo Choo, the Indians received outfielder Drew Stubbs from the Reds and high-level pitching prospect Trevor Bauer from Arizona. While Bauer is far from a proven commodity, he is young, under team control at a cheap price, and most importantly, loaded with talent and upside. Given the Indians mediocre farm system, Keith Law ranked them 19/30 MLB teams, adding an MLB ready top of the rotation starter like Bauer made the Indians the clear winners of the three-team trade.

Nick Swisher

Next, the Indians made a few minor moves like signing Brett Myers to a 1-year deal as a starter, not a reliever. In addition, Mark Reynolds joined the club to mix in at 1st base and DH. Next the Indians made their biggest splash of the offseason by signing Nick Swisher a 4-year $56 million contract. Swisher has Ohio connections, will make $14 million AAV, and provides a great upgrade in the Indians lineup. With the addition of Bourn, about 32% of the Indians 2013 payroll will go to Swisher and Bourn, but even for a mid-market team, the proportions could be worse. Swisher does every thing the Indians needed, he gets on base, switch hits, has power, and can play both outfield and 1st base. With the addition of Bourn, the Indians have a top of the lineup that could do some serious damage to opposing pitchers, causing them to work harder, throw more pitches, and possibly give up more runs in the process. Given Cleveland's project lineup, 5 starters are projected by PECOTA to have higher .328 OBPs in 2013. Cleveland's new lineup will strikeout more than the average team, but it will also produce more homeruns, a higher on-base percentage, and more stolen bases than it has in the previous 4 seasons.

From a hitting standpoint, Bourn adds run production. With Asdrubal Cabrera, Jason Kipnis, Nick Swisher, Carlos Santana, and Mark Reynolds/Jason Giambi hitting behind Bourn, the Indians and their fans can expect the club to score a lot more runs than they have been accustomed to in recent years. Defensively, the Indians have more options now than before. If Terry Francona, Chris Antonetti, and others want, the team now has the ability to move Drew Stubbs or Michael Brantley for an upgrade elsewhere. On the other hand, a defensive outfield of Brantley, Stubbs, and Bourn would be a vacuum for fly balls.
(2010-2012)

Name	Inn	DRS	UZR	UZR/150
Michael Bourn	3888.2	51	35.3	11.9
Nick Swisher	3201	-5	11.5	4.7
Drew Stubbs	3666	-3	4.8	2
Michael Brantley	2833.2	-10	-12.4	-6.4

Don't be dissuaded by Brantley's poor numbers, he plays a much better left field (8 DRS & 3.4 UZR in 2012) than he does center field. An outfield with Stubbs and Brantley in the corners and Bourn in the middle would have a lot of range, which cuts down on hitters turning doubles in to triples and singles into doubles. Over the course of 162 games, such range could benefit the Indians in a subtle yet vital manner. From the numbers above, Swisher doesn't seem like a bad outfielder, so why relegate him to first base? First, playing a less demanding defensive position might cut down on the possibility of injury. Second, Swisher has average range at 1st base, and has posted a positive DRS (3) since 2010. So, moving Swisher to 1st doesn't hurt in the infield, and it improves the team's overall defense in the outfield. While moving Brantley or Stubbs could help, keeping both might give the Indians the best chance to compete for a playoff spot in 2013.

In Baseball, like all other aspects of life, timing often dictates success or failure. In this case, the timing of the Indians interest in Bourn makes me see this signing as a big win for Cleveland. With spring training approaching and few teams catering to the type of contract Bourn originally wanted, the Indians swept in offered Bourn the security he wanted and snatched him up for a reasonable AAV. While Bourn got the best available deal, the Indians made a smart, savvy, and productive move to improve their club now. Cleveland may not be a hot destination for free agents, but it's considered more highly valued than Kansas City, another AL Central team that improved this winter, albeit through controversial means. This puts Cleveland into the conversation for a playoff spot, a turnaround that 94 loss teams rarely expect. While the two wildcards seem the most likely possibility for Cleveland, I think that the AL West and East are too powerful, and that the best chance the Tribe has of reaching the postseason will be by unexpectedly winning the AL Central. Knocking off the Tigers, who are vastly better than their divisional opponents won't be easy, but given the uncertainty of injuries and other unaccountable factors, the Indians now have a chance. Despite the fact that Bourn rejected a qualifying offer from the Braves, Cleveland won't have to relinquish their first-round pick in the draft as it is protected due to the Indians' abysmal record in 2012. The Indians lost their second-round pick when they signed Swisher, and the acquisition of Bourn causes the team to lose their competitive balance pick, which would have been the 71st overall pick.

The Indians made a great deal here. Most sabermetricians will tell you that Bourn's production will decline in the next few years, and I stand with them, but the Indians are only on the hook for a guaranteed 4 years, and given their lack of other stars, paying Bourn $12 million AAV should be worth it. At the very least, even if the Indians don't make the playoffs in 2013, they should be more exciting to watch, win more games, and thus bring more fans to Progressive Field. On the bright side, Bourn could burn out just around age 34-35, meaning the Indians got the most out of him while they could, another sign that Antonetti made a sly deal. Cleveland got their man, Bourn finally found a team, the rest remains unknown, but that's the fun. 

The Wheels Keep Turning

While many Americans will enjoy their mandatory occupational relief on on December 25th, the hot stove of the Major League Baseball offseason continues to burn, not unlike the ever burning yule log. With a number of the big name free agents no longer claiming unemployment, many of the contracts being currently negotiated, are the glue guys, not the big bricks. Every team needs players who fill the cracks, solidifying a team's roster, at least on paper. While these players don't command the same amount of media frenzy as say Josh Hamilton or Zack Greinke, oftentimes this lesser signings prove fruitful for teams once summer comes a callin'.

Rays Sign Roberto Hernandez (formerly Fausto Carmona) to a 1-year $3.25 million contract:
This is largest free agent contract ever tendered to a pitcher by the Rays. You might be saying to yourself, "Three and a quarter million dollars is the largest free agent contract given out to a pitcher by Tampa Bay, that figure has to be close to what Josh Hamilton will pay in taxes next year." Such a sentiment wouldn't be out of line, except that the Rays have found that the formula for success in a small market is to grow talent in expensive areas like pitching, and spend the little capital they have on positions players. The Rays' robust success since 2007 shows that their formula works. Moreover, the fact that the Pirates, Mariners, Twins, and Athletics have all employed a similar strategy seals the deal on the Rays' strategy. So, why would the Rays spend the most money they ever have on a pitcher on Roberto Hernandez, a righty sinker-baller who most recently took a year sabbatical due to immigration issues. Hernandez, formerly known as Fausto Carmona, is a tall righty who throws a hard sinker that has led to a career 58.5 ground ball percentage. The Rays recently traded a pitcher with similar numbers to Hernandez, Burke Badenhop. Badenhop sports a career 55.3 GB%, doing so mostly out of a bullpen roll, as opposed to Hernandez who has pitched almost exclusively from the starting rotation. Even after trading James Shields the Rays remain well stocked in the starting pitching department, thus, I expect Hernandez to replace Badenhop in the bullpen. His splits show an ability to force ground balls against both righties and lefties, and with his drop in free passes given out, Carmona has brought his WHIP to a reasonable level for a pitcher who plays to contact (1.36 avg WHIP 2010+2011). He should be an upgrade for the Rays, but it surprises me they would hand out so much money for a bullpen pitcher, which leads me to believe that he may be a quasi-relief pitcher throwing multiple innings per outing.
My Grade: B (Knowing the Rays, they will use Hernandez in such a way to maximize his value, we just don't know how they will play out.)

Cubs sign Carlos Villanueva to a 2-year $10 million contract:
The Cubs are stocking their roster full of starting pitchers that are prime to perform better in 2013 than they did in 2012: Scott Feldman, Scott Baker and now Carlos Villanueva. For a club that doesn't project to be a winning club for another few seasons, these moves make the Cubs out to be akin to a rehab facility. Pitchers with past problems come to the Cubs and leave reinvigorated, rejuvenated, and prime candidates to be moved at the mid-season trade deadline. The Cubs sign these pitchers to contracts that are just high enough to entice them to sign in the Windy City but low enough that teams with a need for starting pitching will be willing to negotiate a trade. Glenn DuPaul of Beyond the Box Score recently published his thoughts on predictive pitching statistics, pointing towards kwERA as a solid predictor despite it's simplicity. Using DePaul's formula for kwERA, I calculated Villanueva's 2012 kwERA to be 3.65, but his ERA was higher, coming in at 4.16. Given that split, it isn't unreasonable to assume that Villanueva should see some improvement in 2013. Since any team trading for the righty would get him for 1.5 seasons, and would take on only a minimal amount of salary, Villanueva projects as a very tradeable pitcher come July 2013.
My Grade: A- (The Cubs didn't make a large monetary commitment to the Dominican native, and should be able to parlay him for a return of prospects at the trade deadline. In the meantime, Villanueva has job security, a sizeable increase in salary from the $2,770,500 million he made last season, and the possibility to moving to a winning team by the latter part of the summer.)
  
Brewers sign LHP Tom Gorzelanny to a 2-year $5.7 million contract:
Finally, the Brewers sign a free agent. Up to this point, the biggest move the Brewers front office had pushed through was trading Raul Mondesi Jr. to the Rays in exchange for righty reliever Burke Badenhop. This move also improves the Brewer bullpen, but instead of giving up a very young toolsy prospect, Brewers GM Doug Melvin has committed just under $6 million over two seasons to land Gorzelanny. Gorzelanny hasn't been anything special as far as pitchers go, but since moving to the bullpen, his production has improved. As a reliever, Gorzelanny has posted a 3.76 FIP despite a lower BABIP, which comes from an increase in strikeouts and a decrease in home runs. While Gorzelanny sports better numbers against lefties than righties, the only difference is that he gives up fewer walks to lefties. Is he more confident against lefties? Does he get more calls from umpires? Maybe it's the types of pitches he throws. Either way, in order to justify his salary, Gorzelanny needs to post ~ 0.5 fWins per season. Since moving permanently to the bullpen, Gorzelanny has posted 0.9 fWins in 2 years. Using PECOTA's as a forecasting model, Gorzelanny should play up to his contract. The Brewers haven't addressed their lack of depth in their projected 2013 starting rotation, but have improved their abysmal bullpen, which should buttress their already explosive offense well.
My Grade: B- (Gorzelanny isn't a great bullpen pitcher, but he comes cheap, and even as a league average pitcher, represents an upgrade to the Brewers bullpen. If Gorzelanny can lower his walk rate and induce some more ground balls, he could provide extra value.)

Marlins sign 3B Placido Polanco to a 1-year $2.75 million contract:
This signing defines uninteresting. The Phillies made the easy decision to decline the $5.5 million option on Polanco, allowing him to become a free agent. Polanco spent much of 2012 on the disabled list. When in the lineup, he produced little offensively, but did provide continued above average defense at third base (2 DRS, 4.1 UZR, 5.2 FRAA). Polanco is a contact hitter that rarely strikes out. The key to his success at the plate is to reach base safely, sporting a career .344 on base percentage, but in 2012, Polanco's OBP dropped to a below-average .302. While much of this may have been due to a lower back injury that sidelined him for all but 90 games in 2012, if it is purely a decline in production, Polanco's career may be nearing an abrupt end. If he can put up the .279/.332/.368 slash line that Bill James projects him to produce, than Polanco might be rewarded by a mid-season trade to a contendor, or even another 1-year deal, for more money, in 2014. For the Marlins, this allows the team to either platoon the righty Polanco with lefty prospect Zack Cox, leave Cox in triple A for the year, or some combination of the two. Polanco hails from Miami, so signing there makes a lot of sense for him, in spite of the fact that Miami may compete with the Astros for worst record in MLB in 2013.
My Grade: A (This deal is good for everyone involved.)

Cubs sign RHP Edwin Jackson to a 4-year $52 million contract:

Edwin Jackson

2013 will mark Edwin Jackson's 7th full season in Major League Baseball. In 7 seasons, Jackson has played for 6 different teams, having been traded 5 times. Last year he signed a 1-year deal with the Washington Nationals. Jackson has become a "just better than average" starting pitcher. He sports a K%, BB%, and FIP that lie just above the league average. In 2012, Jackson experienced a drop in opponents BABIP (.278), signifying a regression toward the mean (.293) in 2013, but simultaneously saw a spike in his HR/9 (1.09 in 2012 0.72 in 2011). This spike in home runs could be due to pitching half of his games in Washington D.C., which ranks 13th out of 30th in most home runs surrendered by stadium, or it could point to some bad luck. Either way, using Jackson's kwERA and xFIP from 2012 (3.73, 3.79), it would seem that Jackson should put up better numbers in 2013. PECOTA doesn't like Jackson, forecasting him to put up under 1 WARP/season over the course of his new contract. Jackson, like most pitchers, does better after going up 0-1 in an at bat rather than starting the at bat with a ball. Jackson is at the point in his career at which intelligence and adaptability become more important than talent. If E-Jax can learn how to get ahead of hitters more often, combined with the switch to Wrigley Field, he could justify his $13 million AAV (2.6 fWins/season). This contract differs from most that the Cubs have tendered to players of recent in that it is a multi-year deal for a considerable AAV. It signifies that the Cubs are looking a little further down the road, locking up a better-than-average starting pitcher for 4 years. If the price for an "Edwin Jackson" type starter increases in the next 3 years as it most likely will, than by 2015 this deal could look like a steal. In addition, it isn't unreasonable to think that that Cubs will be in contention by 2015-2016, which could make Jackson a valuable and cheapish asset to have under control.
My Grade: B+ (Jackson gets an A for finally getting some job security and the highest AAV he's ever had, while the Cubs get a B. The Cubs are taking a chance, albeit not a huge one, so I can't say this is a slam-dunk.)

Rangers sign C A.J. Pierzynski to a 1-year $7.5 million contract:
After not signing Greinke or Hamilton, and failing to trade for Justin Upton, the Rangers finally make a move. Texas has signed veteran catcher A.J. Pierzynski to a 1-year contract at $7.5 million. Pierzynski put up great numbers in 2012, headed by a major power surge. Pierzynski hit a career high 27 home runs in 2012, leading to a .223 ISO. U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago has long been a hitter park, but it took Pierzynski until 2012 to take advantage of the home-run friendly nature of his home field. According to fielding metrics for catchers, Pierzynski has always been just below average, which is another way of saying playable. Pierzynski had massive splits between lefties and righties in 2012, hitting for a .369 wOBA versus righties last year but only .293 versus lefties last year. He'll be platooning at the catcher position for the Rangers in 2013 with fellow backstop Geovany Soto, making a solid hitting duo at the plate. Pierzynski isn't the long-term solution for the Rangers behind the plate, but since they need to look to upgrade at other positions as well, nailing down the catcher position at a pretty inexpensive price tag works well for Texas. Since the Ballpark in Arlington is as hitter-friendly, if not more hitter-friendly, than U.S. Cellular Field, Pierzynski should expect some attrition in his power numbers, but not by as much as Bill James projects (.223 ISO in 2012, .153 projected 2013 ISO).
My Grade: A- (Pierzynski might have wanted a multi-year deal, but given his age this has to be the best he could do. The Rangers are set at catcher for 2012, and add a veteran presence to their team at a good price.)

Francisco Liriano

Pirates sign LHP Francisco Liriano to a 2-year $12.75 million contract:
Remember kwERA? Well, Francisco Liriano put up a 4.01 kwERA and 5.34 ERA in 2012. While neither number points towards great pitching, the 1.33 difference is one of the highest in MLB last year, pointing towards a bounce back year for Liriano. Combine that with his move from Chicago's hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field to pitcher-friendly PNC Park, points towards 2013 as a year of improvement for Liriano. Add in some better defense behind Liriano, and he becomes a similar pitcher to Edwin Jackson. Jackson has been more consistent than Liriano, hence the difference in AAV and number of years in this contract in comparison to the one the Cubs gave to E-Jax. This is Liriano's first free agent contract, and at the end of it, he'll still be only 30 years old, allowing him to find another multi-year deal. Pittsburgh needed to upgrade it's starting rotation, becoming the 2nd southpaw of the bunch. PECOTA projects Liriano to put up 1.7 and 1.8 WARP respectively in 2013 and 2014, which would be a significant increase from his 2011/2012 production (0.7/0.0). I also expect Liriano to improve, but the best thing he can do is lower his walk rate. If Liriano can go from a 5.00 BB/9 to a 4.00 BB/9, he might go from being a 1-2 fWin player to a 3-4 fWin player. Given the Pirates recent improvements, and the significant young talent knocking at the MLB door (Gerrit Cole, Jamison Taillon, and Starling Marte), pitchers like Francisco Liriano could help them compete for a Wild Card spot in 2013/2014.
My Grade: A (From what I've seen, the Pirates are positioning themselves perfectly to make a splash in 2013/2014. The Liriano signing is prudent, justified, and a solid pecuniary decision. For Liriano, this is great because it's for more than 1 season, and allows him to pursue more money his next go around on the open market.)

Indians sign Nick Swisher to a 4-year $56 million contract:

Nick Swisher

The 2012 offseason market for outfielders was vast, but has diminished in size due to a mix of signings and trades. Overall, those many moves made Nick Swisher a hot commodity. Swisher plays both the corner outfield spots as well as 1st base, provides average defensive ability, almost no speed on the bases, and strikes out at an above-average rate. On the other hand, Swisher is an on-base machine, posting the 14th best on base percentage amongst all MLB outfielders in 2012. He hits for power, posting a .201 ISO, 24 home runs, and collects an extra base hit every 2.5 games. Research has shown that players with good plate discipline tend to age better than those without it. Since Swisher's contract with the Indians will cover his age 32-35 seasons, we can expect Swisher's impressive on-base numbers to hover right around .360. Swisher has had very consistent success from a power-hitting perspective, but given players' tendency to lose some power as they age, we can't expect Swisher to hit 25 home runs per season throughout the course of his newly minted contract. Still, Swisher should remain a valuable player over the next few years, and the forecasting system PECOTA backs me up on this assumption.

	Projected WARP	Projected Worth in $(Million)
2013	2.2	$18.04
2014	2	$16.40
2015	1.7	$13.94
2016	1.2	$9.84

Now that we've asserted and, for the most part, confirmed that Swisher is a successful player, let's analyze his new destination. Cleveland made a splash earlier this winter when GM Chris Antonetti traded OF Shin-Soo Choo to the Reds in a 3-team trade, and received Trevor Bauer and Drew Stubbs in return. Stubbs joins Michael Brantley as options to play center field, but the Indians continued to need corner outfielders. With Swisher projecting as the Indians opening day right fielder, it allows Terry Francona to set up a a very good defensive outfield with Brantley, Stubbs, and Swisher playing in left, center, and right field respectively. Here's the problem. Swisher is a veteran who would make a good team into a potential playoff team, but the Indians are a bad team that, even with the addition of Swisher, most likely won't make the playoffs in 2013. Swisher could contribute to playoff pushes for he Indians in 2015 and 2016, but by that point he'll be older and thus less productive. Swisher won a World Series with the Yankees in 2009, but his AAV has broke $10 million for the first time in 2012. This shows he was looking for the team that would give him the highest AAV for the longest term. In addition, Swisher has roots in Ohio as he attended Ohio State University for college before becoming a professional Baseball player. Even though numerous teams were reportedly courting Swisher, Nick took the deal that fit him best.

My Grade: B+ (A+ for Swisher who looks to have gotten everything he wanted out of this deal. The Indians get a C-C+ for the move because while Swisher is an upgrade, the move makes little sense in 2013 because the Indians aren't making the playoffs in 2013 and probably not in 2014 either. It could prove fruitful in 2015 and 2016, but by then Swisher won't be the player he is now. Still, Swisher is an upgrade, plain and simple, both in 2013 and beyond.)

Getting Younger, Well, Not Exactly

Michael Young

Today, the Philadelphia Phillies acquired Texas Rangers 3rd baseman Michael Young in exchange for right-handed pitcher Josh Lindblom and minor league reliever Lisalverto Bonilla. Supposedly, this deal was made 2-3 days ago, but the teams had to wait to make it official due to Young's no-trade clause. Today, Young waived the clause, after negotiating $1.2 million more on top of his contract, to compensate for the state tax difference between Texas and Pennsylvania. The Phillies have Young signed for 2013 but not beyond that. The Rangers seriously wanted Young gone, which is unsurprising given Young's recent complains concerning the loss of his starting job. The Rangers will pay $10 million of Young's $16 million salary for 2013 so he can play third base for the Phillies.

So, what are the Phillies getting in this deal? Is it the Michael Young who had 5 consecutive 200+ hit seasons, the comeback kid who compiled 213 hits as a 34 year old, or last season's -1.4 win player who seemed to have fall off the age curve cliff? Young has spent his entire career in Texas, and leaves the team as the franchise leader in hits, games played, and doubles. Fortunately for the Phillies, Citizens Bank Park and the Ballpark in Arlington are two of the most hitter friendly parks in Major League Baseball, thus Young shouldn't experience any drop off due to a park change. Young's career has been built on his ability to hit for average, but unfortunately, not much else. Young's .147 career ISO has more to do with his ability to hit doubles rather than any significant home run power, and he has a below average career BB% at 6.6% compared to the 2012 league average of 8.0%. On the other hand, Young consistently racks up the hits, and unless there is a significant drop off in swing speed or the ability to make contact with pitches in the zone, the hits should continue to come.

	Young	League Avg
Contact %	79.90%	85.90%
SwStr%	9.10%	7.10%
Z-Contact%	87.20%	89.80%

As you can see, even in his worst season in the big leagues, Young continued to make well above average contact, make better than average contact on pitches in the strike zone, and accumulate as many swinging strikes as the average player in 2012. So what went wrong? Young's 2012 season marked his lowest in terms of BB%, batting average on balls in play, and OPS+. Given Young's consistently below average BB% throughout his career, seeing him walk even less isn't something to worry about, but his .299 BABIP could be an issue. The low BABIP derived from his increased ground ball percentage coupled with an attrition in his fly ball percentage. If Young can get a bit more lift on the ball this year, Phillies fans shouldn't be surprised to see him return to some semblance of his 2011 self. It might be unreasonable to assume or even forecast Young's power to return, but getting the ball in the air more can lead to more extra-base hits.

Other than Young's on-field production, this move makes a lot of sense for the Phillies.  The Phillies have most of their payroll wrapped up in 4 players (Howard, Halladay, Lee, and Hamels), and while many thought Ruben Amaro would spend frivolously on free agents, instead he has adroitly acquired necessary parts via trades. In doing so, the Phillies retain the ability to make a move on the free agents who remain. This move opens up options for RAJ; allowing him to go after a corner outfielder like Cody Ross or Nick Swisher as well as top of the line bullpen help like Peter Moylan, Jon Rauch, or Mike Adams. In addition, it allows the Phillies to go after a high-risk high reward starting pitcher like Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jair Jurrjens, or John Lannan. Young isn't perfect, but he shouldn't be as bad as last season. Combining his skills at the plate with Kevin Frandsen's slightly above-averaged fielding will make for a viable option at third base, and a suitable replacement for the departing Placido Polanco, while waiting for prospect Cody Asche to mature.

The Rangers have a good young prospect in Mike Olt primed to take over the hot corner, which made Young expendable. Couple Young's age, diminishing production, and desire to start together and you get the perfect candidate for a trade. The Rangers picked up two relief pitchers from the Phillies. Josh Lindblom, who the Phillies received from Los Angeles in the trade that made Shane Victorino a Dodger, and all Lindblom did was finish dead last in wins amongst all Major League Relievers (-1.1). Lindblom's high BB/9 of 4.44, low GB% at 35.8%, and high HR/FB % of 15.7% show that he can't keep the ball in in the strike zone, but when he does, it has a tendency to fly out of the park. These stats show a pitcher who won't give up solo home runs, but instead will allow 2-run and 3-run home runs due to his propensity to allow base runners. While all of these are correctable, Lindblom now enters an even more home run friendly park, which doesn't bode well for the young righty.

Lisalverto Bonilla

The scouting report on Lisalverto Bonilla is that he has performed much better as a reliever than as a starter. Even since moving the bullpen Bonilla's FIP has fallen due to more strikeouts and fewer home runs. He still walks too many hitters, which means that if Rangers see an increase in home runs given up they will also see worse overall results from Bonilla. According to the scouting report at Phuture Phillies, Bonilla has a good fastball with great changeup, giving him a good pitch combination for a late inning reliever who can get out righties with regularity. At 22 years old, if Bonilla can put up similar numbers over twice the number of innings, he could become a full-time big leaguer by 2014.

Overall, from the Phillies side, this trade was slightly reassuring. Michael Young isn't the answer long-term, and he might not even be the full-time answer at third base this season, but given the abysmal market for third baseman this offseason, Amaro should feel proud of this move. He has many options as far as what to do next, but going after either Nick Swisher or Cody Ross seems logical. PECOTA expects Young to put up 1.2 wins next season, which would be worth about $9 million, 33% more than what the Phillies will pay Young in 2013. The Bill James projections also see a return to semi-normalcy for Young, predicting a .330 wOBA, 176 hits, and a .343 on base percentage.
My Grade: A- (Phillies now have an option at third, and didn't increase payroll, while the Rangers get a possible future set-up man and clear room for Mike Olt at 3rd)

A Game of Dominoes

Denard Span

First the Braves signed B.J. Upton to a 5-year contract worth $75 million. Now the Nationals have traded for now former Twins center fielder Denard Span. Dave Cameron does a great job summing up the trade at Fangraphs, so I'll spare you the gory details. One thing Cameron makes note of is that the acquisition of Span means the Nationals now have surplus of outfielders. Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper will retain their spots, with Harper shifting to a corner spot, but it leaves no room for Michael Morse. Morse, who was acquired by the Nationals from the Mariners for Ryan Langerhans, has blossomed into a legitimate right-handed masher.

Michael Morse:

	Games Played	ISO	wRC+	wOBA	fWAR
2010	98	0.229	134	0.377	1.1
2011	146	0.247	148	0.390	3.3
2012	102	0.180	113	0.340	0.1

Michael Morse

Not only has Morse become a power bat, he's under team control for 2013 at a price of $6.75 million, an undervalued price if he puts up numbers similar to his recent past. The Nationals don't want to get rid of Morse, but now there is no room for him. Well, maybe not so fast. Morse has played 123 games at first base, and the Nationals currently have no first baseman.

	2012
	OF	1B
UZR	-21.9	0.5
DRS	-4	0

Looking at these numbers from 2012, from a fielding standpoint, Morse not only stops hurting a team when he plays first base instead of outfield, he helps the cause. So, what can we conclude? The simple answer here is, move Morse to first and move on to the next problem.

Nationals fans might be saying, "What about Adam LaRoche?" LaRoche played first base for the National last season, and he did it with extreme proficiency. At the plate, LaRoche posted a 3.8 fWAR that breaks down into a .361 wOBA, 127 wRC+, and a 6.1 UZR. LaRoche is a free agent with whom the Nationals have been in discussions with for a possible contract, but recently those discussions have begun to turn sour. In addition, the most recent news has the Red Sox in talks with LaRoche, another sign pointing towards the Nationals removing themselves from contention to sign him, and to simply move Morse to first permanently to replace the departed LaRoche. 

PECOTA sees LaRoche's 2012 as a bad predictor of his future numbers. According to the system developed by Nate Silver, LaRoche will post something close to 0.7 WARP over the next 3 seasons, with some wiggle room on either side. While LaRoche could be better than PECOTA predicts, he also present injury concerns, and at age 33 he isn't getting any younger. Also, first basemen are very replaceable given the relative ease that comes with playing the position, and the number of power hitters that occupy 1st base. 

So, what will be the next domino to fall? Upton's signing begot the trade for Span, and the acquisition of Span will beget something else. So, let's speculate. The Phillies are thought to be the next team to sign or make a deal for a center fielder in order to keep up with the Braves in the NL East, so could they be involved in the next deal? It would seem as though the options are dwindling for the Fightin' Phillies, but as a team with money to spend, the Phillies still have lots of options. The Phillies could spend big and pay for Josh Hamilton, spend less to acquire Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan, or Shane Victorino, make a trade for a center fielder like Peter Bourjos or Dexter Fowler, or acquire a player at a different position like third base, forcing the team to platoon John Mayberry Jr. and Nate Schierholtz in center field. 

The Braves made a clever and efficient move by grabbing the guy they want at a reasonable price, while the Nationals made a smart move by trading for a center fielder to solve a problem in center field as well as first base, now it's time to see what the Phillies can do to counter. Recently, I postulated that the Phillies should fill the void in center field by trading for the Rockies Dexter Fowler. As of now, I would expand that list to include Angels' outfielder Peter Bourjos. By filling the hole via trade, the Phillies should then sign Nick Swisher to a reasonable contract. Swisher, Fowler/Bourjos, and Domonic Brown roaming the confines of Citizens Bank Park's outfield would be the counterpunch. 

Peter Bourjos

How do Trevor May and Zach Collier for Peter Bourjos sound? On paper it isn't a bad deal for either the Phillies or the Angels. Bourjos is essentially Denard Span, but a little younger, and slightly less expensive. The Angels have a center fielder named Mike Trout; maybe you've heard of him, who makes Bourjos expendable. If the Angels can't can't sign Zack Greinke, having another young pitching prospect in the form of Trevor May can't hurt. The Angels clear more payroll, the Phillies get a solid defensive center fielder with speed who projects to put up and average of 1.7 WARP over the next 4 seasons, and the Phillies have found the proper retaliatory response to the Nats and Braves' moves. 

The offseason can be a mix of a chess match, boxing match, and poker hand all at once. The number of influences on a team that can manipulate the decisions made are vast, and always growing, putting every team on higher alert every successive year. With the winter meetings coming up, a number of free agents are set to sign deals, and many more trades are prime to come about, hopefully including a response from the Phillies.  

Phixing Philadelphia

By all accounts, 2012 was a disappointing season for the Philadelphia Phillies. After 5 consecutive 1st place finishes in the NL East, the team finished third, with an 81-81 record. Fans spent 5 seasons packing Citizens Bank Park, cheering on their team, getting used to the idea of a winning baseball team in Philadelphia. This past season changed things a bit. The team dealt with multiple injuries to key players like Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Roy Halladay, and Carlos Ruiz. Combine injuries with an aging team that traded many young and talented players in the hopes of upgrading the squad heading into the playoffs, and fans were left with a team that struggled to win.

So, how did the 2012 team differ from Phillies teams prior?

Batting:

	Runs/Game	wRC+	wOBA	SLG%	OBP
2010	4.77	99	0.327	0.413	0.332
2011	4.40	96	0.315	0.395	0.323
2012	4.22	93	0.311	0.400	0.317

Fielding:

	UZR	DRS	PADE
2010	-5.9	0	1.36
2011	-10	-59	0.75
2012	-8.3	-8	-0.45

Base running:

	BsR	BRR
2010	4.4	-6.2
2011	-1.4	-9.5
2012	4.5	-9.7

Pitching:

	FIP	ERA	K%	BB%
2010	3.93	3.68	19.4%	6.8%
2011	3.24	3.02	21.4%	6.7%
2012	3.72	3.86	22.8%	6.7%

From a hitting perspective, the Phillies have consistently been moving down the charts. Their rate of decline isn't steep by any standard, but for a team that has leaned so heavily on its pitching, even minute drops in hitting production can have significant effects. The Phillies have never been one for considering on base percentage a top priority, but even still, a team that gets on base at a .317 clip probably isn't making the playoffs. In fact, the Tampa Bay Rays had an identical team OBP to the Phillies in 2012, but the reason the Rays won more games is that the Rays had the best pitching in the American League.

Defensively, the Phillies have also fallen by the wayside. Okay, so no one is falling off the impending fiscal cliff to their defensive demise, but the team has consistently become worse and worse in the field. The reason for this is simple. The Phillies have aged, which takes away from range, and certain players weren't good fielders to begin with, like Ryan Howard, anyone who has played left field, and Hunter Pence. Filling holes in their team this offseason should upgrade their defensive efficiency, something important to bolster a pitching staff that still sports numerous aces.

Cole Hamels

The pitching has not changed drastically over the last three seasons. 2011 was a particularly spectacular season for Phillies pitchers as it was the season of the daunting 4 aces, Halladay, Lee, Hamels, and Oswalt. The 2012 Phillies pitched more similarly to the 2010 Phillies, but with pitchers like Halladay and Lee getting older, some regression is possible. On the other hand, the team signed lefty Cole Hamels to a long-term contract, which will keep him pitching in Philadelphia for many more years.

Now that we have looked at the team's past, what about the present and the future? Going into the 2012-2013 offseason the front office has some work to do. After trading center fielder Shane Victorino and right fielder Hunter Pence, the team needs to find replacements for 2 outfield spots, as well as one at third base due to the void left by Placido Polanco. In addition, the team could use to add at least one or two veteran arms in the bullpen to complement the numerous younger possibilities at the team's disposal.

The market this offseason for center fielders is vast. Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, Josh Hamilton, and Angel Pagan are all options, as well as trade candidates Dexter Fowler and Denard Span. Given the the Phillies recent depletion in their farm system, a trade is less likely than a free agent signing. The team seems to be focused on filling the center field spot, with rumors that they are most enamored by the youngest option of the bunch, B.J. Upton. Hamilton is probably too expensive, and will have to be moved to a corner outfield spot in the very near future, while Pagan's age, and desire to return to San Francisco, may turn off the Phillies. Bourn remains a possibility, but his value is wrapped up in his base running and defense, two factors that diminish quickly with age.

While this free agent crop is filled with center fielders, it is devoid of third basemen. The biggest name is Kevin Youkilis,but after that, there isn't much. In times like these, teams need to find value. Interestingly, the Youkilis is a actually a great option for the Phillies. He may be a bit older, but he's a right-handed bat that can hit for power (.174 ISO), but most importantly, he gets on base (career OBP .384). While Phillies GM Ruben Amaro should consider Youkilis his first option, many other teams will also be clamoring to sign Youk, which will make it more difficult. A lesser known, but valuable option is Jeff Keppinger. Keppinger has bounced around from team to team during his career, but he gets on base (.337 career OBP), and has averaged an fWAR of ~ 1 for the last 5 seasons. Last year he added 2.8 wins to the Rays, playing 1st, 2nd, and 3rd base all at an above average rate. He would cost less than Youkilis, and would allow the Phillies to concentrate money on other spots.

From the bullpen perspective, the Phillies have numerous options. The 2012 Phillies pen was one of the league's best at getting strikeouts (10.05 K/9), but had a below average ground ball percentage. In addition, the team could do a better job getting lefties out. Two pitchers the Phillies should look into are Koji Uehara and Kyle Farnsworth. For a righty, Uehara is surprisingly good at getting left-handed batters out. This is probably due to his devastating changeup that acts similarly to a slow splitter, diving away from lefties. Farnsworth has dealt with injuries, but refashioned himself with a 2-seam fastball that moves and causes many more ground balls. Uahara is more sought after, so his price tag is higher, but both pitchers would fit well into the Phillies 2013 bullpen, and neither would cost too much money.

My best fit, perfect world solution for the Phillies looks like this:

Nick Swisher

1) Use capitol to sign outfielder Nick Swisher. He's a bit expensive, and due to the qualifying offer the Yankees gave him, the Phillies would be forced to surrender their 1st round draft pick to the Yankees. This is a risk, but Swisher does many things well that the Phillies need. A contract in the range of 5 years and $75 million would pay Swisher $15 million per season, a reasonable sum for both sides.

2) Trade pitcher Jonathan Pettibone and shortstop Freddie Galvis to the Colorado Rockies for center fielder Dexter Fowler. The Rockies are looking for pitching and, due to their cluster of outfielders, adding the defensively minded infielder Galvis into the deal could be the key to plucking Fowler. Fowler is entering arbitration years, thus he is under financial control, and provides speed and explosiveness from center field. Platooning Fowler with John Mayberry Jr., who only hits well off of lefties, could be quite productive.

3) Sign infielder Jeff Keppinger to a 2-year contract worth $17 million with a team option for 2015 worth $9 million. He's serviceable, can play all over the infield, and keeps third base warm until prospect Cody Asche improves a bit more on his way to the Majors.

4) Sign Koji Uehara to a 2-year $8 million deal and sign Kyle Farnsworth to a 1-year $3 million contract. Both veteran bullpen arms will do well complementing Papelbon, Bastardo, Aumont, De Fratus, etc... in the bullpen.

Those transactions yield a starting lineup of:

Catcher	Carlos Ruiz
1st Base	Ryan Howard
2nd Base	Chase Utley
Shortstop	Jimmy Rollins
Third Base	Jeff Keppinger
Left Field	Domonic Brown
Center Field	Dexter Fowler
Right Field	Nick Swisher

Amaro would have added about $31 million to the 2013 payroll, which is pretty affordable for the additions of 5 players. No, these moves don't have the snap, crackle, and pop of flashy moves like signing Josh Hamilton or trading for David Wright, but given the Phillies great pitching staff, it would add value in particularly important areas. Some of those moves aren't completely realistic. Nick Swisher may cost more money, and the Rockies may ask for more to acquire Dexter Fowler, but Amaro should look into fixing the Phillies' problems more with patching than with shiny, fancy new parts. Given the Phillies .500 record in 2012, the team could easily rebound to contend once again for the NL East crown, but needs a bit of work to do so.