Phixing Philadelphia

By all accounts, 2012 was a disappointing season for the Philadelphia Phillies. After 5 consecutive 1st place finishes in the NL East, the team finished third, with an 81-81 record. Fans spent 5 seasons packing Citizens Bank Park, cheering on their team, getting used to the idea of a winning baseball team in Philadelphia. This past season changed things a bit. The team dealt with multiple injuries to key players like Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Roy Halladay, and Carlos Ruiz. Combine injuries with an aging team that traded many young and talented players in the hopes of upgrading the squad heading into the playoffs, and fans were left with a team that struggled to win.

So, how did the 2012 team differ from Phillies teams prior?

Batting:

	Runs/Game	wRC+	wOBA	SLG%	OBP
2010	4.77	99	0.327	0.413	0.332
2011	4.40	96	0.315	0.395	0.323
2012	4.22	93	0.311	0.400	0.317

Fielding:

	UZR	DRS	PADE
2010	-5.9	0	1.36
2011	-10	-59	0.75
2012	-8.3	-8	-0.45

Base running:

	BsR	BRR
2010	4.4	-6.2
2011	-1.4	-9.5
2012	4.5	-9.7

Pitching:

	FIP	ERA	K%	BB%
2010	3.93	3.68	19.4%	6.8%
2011	3.24	3.02	21.4%	6.7%
2012	3.72	3.86	22.8%	6.7%

From a hitting perspective, the Phillies have consistently been moving down the charts. Their rate of decline isn't steep by any standard, but for a team that has leaned so heavily on its pitching, even minute drops in hitting production can have significant effects. The Phillies have never been one for considering on base percentage a top priority, but even still, a team that gets on base at a .317 clip probably isn't making the playoffs. In fact, the Tampa Bay Rays had an identical team OBP to the Phillies in 2012, but the reason the Rays won more games is that the Rays had the best pitching in the American League.

Defensively, the Phillies have also fallen by the wayside. Okay, so no one is falling off the impending fiscal cliff to their defensive demise, but the team has consistently become worse and worse in the field. The reason for this is simple. The Phillies have aged, which takes away from range, and certain players weren't good fielders to begin with, like Ryan Howard, anyone who has played left field, and Hunter Pence. Filling holes in their team this offseason should upgrade their defensive efficiency, something important to bolster a pitching staff that still sports numerous aces.

Cole Hamels

The pitching has not changed drastically over the last three seasons. 2011 was a particularly spectacular season for Phillies pitchers as it was the season of the daunting 4 aces, Halladay, Lee, Hamels, and Oswalt. The 2012 Phillies pitched more similarly to the 2010 Phillies, but with pitchers like Halladay and Lee getting older, some regression is possible. On the other hand, the team signed lefty Cole Hamels to a long-term contract, which will keep him pitching in Philadelphia for many more years.

Now that we have looked at the team's past, what about the present and the future? Going into the 2012-2013 offseason the front office has some work to do. After trading center fielder Shane Victorino and right fielder Hunter Pence, the team needs to find replacements for 2 outfield spots, as well as one at third base due to the void left by Placido Polanco. In addition, the team could use to add at least one or two veteran arms in the bullpen to complement the numerous younger possibilities at the team's disposal.

The market this offseason for center fielders is vast. Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, Josh Hamilton, and Angel Pagan are all options, as well as trade candidates Dexter Fowler and Denard Span. Given the the Phillies recent depletion in their farm system, a trade is less likely than a free agent signing. The team seems to be focused on filling the center field spot, with rumors that they are most enamored by the youngest option of the bunch, B.J. Upton. Hamilton is probably too expensive, and will have to be moved to a corner outfield spot in the very near future, while Pagan's age, and desire to return to San Francisco, may turn off the Phillies. Bourn remains a possibility, but his value is wrapped up in his base running and defense, two factors that diminish quickly with age.

While this free agent crop is filled with center fielders, it is devoid of third basemen. The biggest name is Kevin Youkilis,but after that, there isn't much. In times like these, teams need to find value. Interestingly, the Youkilis is a actually a great option for the Phillies. He may be a bit older, but he's a right-handed bat that can hit for power (.174 ISO), but most importantly, he gets on base (career OBP .384). While Phillies GM Ruben Amaro should consider Youkilis his first option, many other teams will also be clamoring to sign Youk, which will make it more difficult. A lesser known, but valuable option is Jeff Keppinger. Keppinger has bounced around from team to team during his career, but he gets on base (.337 career OBP), and has averaged an fWAR of ~ 1 for the last 5 seasons. Last year he added 2.8 wins to the Rays, playing 1st, 2nd, and 3rd base all at an above average rate. He would cost less than Youkilis, and would allow the Phillies to concentrate money on other spots.

From the bullpen perspective, the Phillies have numerous options. The 2012 Phillies pen was one of the league's best at getting strikeouts (10.05 K/9), but had a below average ground ball percentage. In addition, the team could do a better job getting lefties out. Two pitchers the Phillies should look into are Koji Uehara and Kyle Farnsworth. For a righty, Uehara is surprisingly good at getting left-handed batters out. This is probably due to his devastating changeup that acts similarly to a slow splitter, diving away from lefties. Farnsworth has dealt with injuries, but refashioned himself with a 2-seam fastball that moves and causes many more ground balls. Uahara is more sought after, so his price tag is higher, but both pitchers would fit well into the Phillies 2013 bullpen, and neither would cost too much money.

My best fit, perfect world solution for the Phillies looks like this:

Nick Swisher

1) Use capitol to sign outfielder Nick Swisher. He's a bit expensive, and due to the qualifying offer the Yankees gave him, the Phillies would be forced to surrender their 1st round draft pick to the Yankees. This is a risk, but Swisher does many things well that the Phillies need. A contract in the range of 5 years and $75 million would pay Swisher $15 million per season, a reasonable sum for both sides.

2) Trade pitcher Jonathan Pettibone and shortstop Freddie Galvis to the Colorado Rockies for center fielder Dexter Fowler. The Rockies are looking for pitching and, due to their cluster of outfielders, adding the defensively minded infielder Galvis into the deal could be the key to plucking Fowler. Fowler is entering arbitration years, thus he is under financial control, and provides speed and explosiveness from center field. Platooning Fowler with John Mayberry Jr., who only hits well off of lefties, could be quite productive.

3) Sign infielder Jeff Keppinger to a 2-year contract worth $17 million with a team option for 2015 worth $9 million. He's serviceable, can play all over the infield, and keeps third base warm until prospect Cody Asche improves a bit more on his way to the Majors.

4) Sign Koji Uehara to a 2-year $8 million deal and sign Kyle Farnsworth to a 1-year $3 million contract. Both veteran bullpen arms will do well complementing Papelbon, Bastardo, Aumont, De Fratus, etc... in the bullpen.

Those transactions yield a starting lineup of:

Catcher	Carlos Ruiz
1st Base	Ryan Howard
2nd Base	Chase Utley
Shortstop	Jimmy Rollins
Third Base	Jeff Keppinger
Left Field	Domonic Brown
Center Field	Dexter Fowler
Right Field	Nick Swisher

Amaro would have added about $31 million to the 2013 payroll, which is pretty affordable for the additions of 5 players. No, these moves don't have the snap, crackle, and pop of flashy moves like signing Josh Hamilton or trading for David Wright, but given the Phillies great pitching staff, it would add value in particularly important areas. Some of those moves aren't completely realistic. Nick Swisher may cost more money, and the Rockies may ask for more to acquire Dexter Fowler, but Amaro should look into fixing the Phillies' problems more with patching than with shiny, fancy new parts. Given the Phillies .500 record in 2012, the team could easily rebound to contend once again for the NL East crown, but needs a bit of work to do so. 

Let's Talk Pitching

This past Sunday Americans celebrated the end of the NFL season by eating lots of fried food, cheering for the players as much as the commercials, and then passing out praying their boss is a Giants fan.  Now that the Super Bowl is over, one fact remains, only 11 days until pitchers and catchers report to spring training.

In light of the imminent arrival of pitchers and catchers to Florida and Arizona I decided to write about pitching, and more specifically, starting pitching.  As I alluded to in my previous post, every starter in a rotation has the ability to contribute as much as his fellow starters.  The designation of #1 starter or #5 starter usually tells us something about a pitcher's value, but both the #1 and #5 starter in every rotation have equal opportunities to contribute.

This off-season a number of high quality starting pitchers changed teams including C.J Wilson (Rangers to Angels), Mark Buehrle (White Sox to Marlins), Edwin Jackson (Cardinals to Nationals), Gio Gonzalez (A's to Nats), and Matt Latos (Padres to Reds).  Recently the trend in Major League Baseball has been to compile an elite set of starters in order to achieve success.  Examples include the Phillies, Giants, Braves, and Rays.  No matter how a general manager accomplishes this goal, putting together a great rotation instead of a star studded lineup has become the norm. 

No division compiled more starting pitching in the last 3 years than the National League East.  Whether by trade, free agency, or through the draft, the NL East is chock-full or great starters.

Philadelphia Phillies:  When you think of great starting pitching there is almost no better place to start then the reigning NL East champion Phillies.  With All-starts Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels topping the Phillies rotation, Philadelphia is poised to claim a 6th consecutive NL east title.  With the emergence of Vance Worley as a reliable strike-throwing starter (61.5% F-strike%) the Phillies decided to allow the now older and more injury prone Roy Oswalt to test the free agent waters.  This makes their rotation younger and less expensive, especially since both Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels will be making considerably more money in 2012 than in 2011.  Rounding out the rotation is Joe Blanton.  Blanton spent almost the entire 2011 season on the disabled list, but was integral to the Phillies' World Series runs in 2008 and 2009 and, like Worley, should provide the Phillies with 5 strike-throwing starting pitchers.  Last season the Phillies 5 starting pitchers compiled a WAR of 28.8 utilizing Fangraphs' version of WAR.  In comparison the 2011 Marlins starters compiled a measly 15.5 total WAR.  The Phillies should be pleased with their rotation going into the 2012 season as it, along with the Giants rotation, is one of the top 2 rotations in the NL.

Atlanta Braves:  To say the Braves have depth in their starting rotation is a massive understatement.   7 different starters could easily see themselves in the Braves 2012 rotation.  Most teams would turn to the witchcraft to compile a group of arms like the Braves'.  While the Braves' depth seems almost like overkill, it may prove vital to their success.  Last season only veteran sinkerballer Tim Hudson reached the 200 inning plateau with no other Braves pitcher currently in the 2012 rotation throwing for more than 152.0 innings.  Beginning the season 4/5 of the Braves rotation was born in the 1980's with two other possibilities (Randall Delgado and Julio Tehran) under the age of 23.  The Braves rotation, unlike the Phillies, is made up of a lot of "ifs".  For example, if Tommy Hanson continues his success as a big strikeout pitcher and stays healthy... and if Jair Jurrjens stays healthy and performs as stellar post-All-star break as he does before mid-season... and if Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy pitch at a more veteran level than their ages... and finally if Randall Delgado and Julio Tehran live up to their highly touted statuses... the Braves could have the best rotation in baseball.  Is this likley?  Probably not, but the Braves rotation has the potential to be incredible, which is better than most.

If the Nats are to win Strasburg is the key

Washington Nationals: This is quite possibly the most intriguing starting rotation in all of Major League Baseball.  No discussion of the Nationals starters can begin with anyone but Stephen Strasburg.  As someone who has seen Strasburg pitch in person, I can tell you that he passes the eye test for ace starter.  Strasburg demonstrates poise and presence on the mound and has 3 plus pitches.  The only knock on the Nats phenom is that his sample size isn't large enough to make any bold statements as to his greatness.  His lack of experience coupled with recent Tommy John surgery usually don't bode well for young starters, but Strasburg's talent is unmatched.  In an attempt to improve their recently weak starting rotation the Nats flexed their wallets by trading and then extending Gio Gonzalez and then signing Edwin Jackson.  Gonzalez was one of the best lefties in the AL last season, but played in pitcher friendly Oakland.  Gonzalez compiles a lot of strikeouts, but his forte is getting into and then out of trouble.  The southpaw had a WHIP of 1.32 last season but a LOB% of 77.1%.  With a projected BABIP of .302 and a friendlier hitter's ballpark Gonzalez could get burned if he tires after the first time through the lineup, but overall he's a solid addition to the Nats rotation.  The best signing of the off-season may turn out to be the one-year deal the Nats gave to Edwin Jackson.  Over the last 4 seasons Jackson's FIP and WHIP have trended in a positive direction which bodes well for him in 2012.  Rounding out the rotation is John Lannan, but with the Nats declaring their desire to move him he may be pitching elsewhere very soon.  Chin-Ming Wang and Ross Detwiler will compete for the fifth starting spot.  Neither pitcher will significantly improve the rotation, but if Wang can compile a ground ball percentage of at least 50% he could make a significant impact.

Anibal Sanchez

Florida Marlins: Like the Nats, the Marlins rotation received a makeover.  New faces include Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano.  Adding Zambrano and Buehrle to Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, and Ricky Nolasco creates a fairly formidable rotation.  They key for Johnson is to stay away from the disabled list.  When he is healthy he is arguably the best pitcher in Major League Baseball, but for this team to do well he must stay healthy.  Sanchez's recent history shows a trend towards ace status, but even if he doesn't achieve #1 type numbers his presence will be felt.  Nolasco has been solid, with his numbers showing a shift from a strikeout pitcher to one who gets outs on the ground.  If Nolasco's numbers remain similar to last season he will have done his job.  Although the Marlins probably overpaid to get Buehrle, he is a lefty with impeccable control, which is invaluable.  Zambrano is obviously the wild card of the bunch, but I expect an improvement from him because if anyone can control crazy Carlos it's the wildest manager out there, Ozzie Guillen.

Maybe Mr. Met should pitch

New York Mets:  The Mets rotation sports Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, and R.A. Dickey.  If Santana can somehow become the pitcher he was before his arm issues, the Mets can basically count on one win every five games, but the odds of him returning to his Cy Young self are slim.  Pelfrey may be one of the most frustrating pitchers in the league in that every time he looks like he has crossed the threshold into greatness he regresses back to mediocrity.  Niese, Gee, and Dickey are all #4 caliber starters, but with the Mets projected to remain cellar dwellers in the east their contributions lack importance.

Overall, the NL East could be one of if not the best pitching divisions in Major League Baseball, but nothing is certain until they play the games.  Ranking these rotations isn't easy but I'm up for a challenge.  #1 Phillies #2 Nationals #3 Braves #4 Marlins #5 Mets.  The Marlins have the most potential to move up this list while the Braves and Nats have the most potential to move down.  One fact is certain, the battle for NL East supremacy will be a fight to the finish.