From Cy Young to Mariano Rivera

The Nobel Prize

Awards are, in their simplest forms, acknowledgments of an achievement.  Meritocratic societies judge members of the collective on certain skills that are deemed important to the group.  As a global society, we have decided that the areas of Physics, Chemistry, Literature, Peace, Economics, and Medicine to be of highest importance.  Thus, those who demonstrate incredible skill, talent, dedication, and proven results in these categories receive illustrious awards known as Nobel Prizes, distinguishing them from all others who participate in the marketplace of ideas and more specifically, in the fields mentioned above. 

Sports, like Physics, Chemistry, Medicine, Literature, and the rest, cannot be described as anything other than meritocratic. In every game a winner emerges and a loser lives to play another day, but no matter what the results, one team or player always rises above the rest, claiming the title, “the best.”  Because sports often involve both team and individual activities, we recognize the feats of both groups.  Team awards are commonly seen as more glorious, thus these awards are the pinnacles of team sports.  In Baseball the team that wins the World Series remains champions for a full season, an honor in itself.  The team wins the most prestigious trophy, and of course, the recognition from everyone associated with the sport.

The Cy Young Award

Although team awards constitute the greatest of all accomplishments, individual awards also matter a great deal.  These awards consist of the Most Valuable Player Award, the Cy Young Award, Golden Gloves, Silver Sluggers, and All-Star game appearances.  Each accolade comes with it’s own set of idiosyncrasies, but I want to focus on the Cy Young Award.

First given out in in 1956, one year after the death of the award’s namesake, Cy Young.  Originally the award was given to the best pitcher in the Major Leagues, but after 1967, Major League Baseball decided to choose a winner in each league, one for the National League and one in the American League.  The Baseball Writers Association of America votes on the winner of the award.  The winner is dubbed the “Baseball’s best regular season pitcher.”  Obviously, this implies that any pitching performed in the playoffs is not considered when choosing the Cy Young Award winners. 

 Recently, I have heard and read speculation that this years National League recipient of this illustrious award should be one of two relief pitchers.  Aroldis Chapman of the Cincinnati Reds and Craig Kimbrel of the Atlanta Braves.  Both pitchers are relief pitchers, specifically known as closers.  Their job is to come in the game in the 9^th inning when their team has a lead, but no more than a 4-run lead, and get the final three outs to ensure a win.  Although my opinion of the whole structure of the modern bullpen is biased towards getting rid of the entire construct, I still believe that considering bullpen pitchers for the Cy Young Award to be ludicrous.

Closers compile a statistic that no other player does, due to the situation in the game in which they play, known as the save.  The full definition of what constitutes a save can be found here: “The Save” Saves do not mean very much when appraising a pitcher, due to the variability with which a pitcher can attain a save.  Oftentimes closers will pitch in the most high-pressure situations.  Imagine this.  Your team clings to a modest 2-run lead against your arch nemesis.  The game has been grueling, with both teams putting forth great amounts of effort.  The 9^th and final inning comes about and with your team in the lead you bring in your best relief pitcher to get the final three outs.  He comes into the game and must face the opposing team’s three most ferocious hitters, batters who strike fear in the average pitcher, and players who have already displayed their hitting prowess by belting numerous hits throughout the game.

I don’t know about you, but that seems like a pressured-filled situation to me.  I would want a pitcher in the game who could get three outs without allowing a batter to reach first base safely, let alone put the ball in play.  Pitchers who can rack up the strikeouts are often closers, and thus pitch in these situations. 

Kimbrel

Chapman

Now, here is a different situation.  Your team is playing the last place team in the league.  You have a 3-run lead going into the 9^th inning, and scheduled to hit are the 7-8-9 hitters for the opposing team.  These three batters barely produce any positive results no matter who stands opposite them on the pitching mound.  This situation lacks the depth and tension that coursed throughout the 1^st scenario.  A pitcher who ends the game in this situation receives a save equivalent to the one received if he finishes the first game. 

Saves are not good evaluators of value or even effectiveness.  They show that a pitcher is able to thrive given very specific conditions, but does not distinguish between the numerous other variables that can have a great effect on the impressiveness of the situation. 

So, Saves aren’t as amazing as pundits and coaches often think.  Surely other statistics exist that can prove that relief pitchers are worthy of the Cy Young Award.  The issue with every other statistic is that the Baseball Writer’s Association evaluates starting pitchers on the same statistics.  The major difference between starters and relievers is innings pitched.  I think that we, as fans and observers, can agree that given a larger sample size we can draw more definitive conclusions.  Innings pitched constitute the sample size for a pitcher.  If starters have more innings pitched, than we have a clearer picture into their true value and thus can better determine who is the “best pitcher in baseball.” 

Here are some statistics of crucial statistical categories used to analyze a pitcher’s performance: 

	Saves	ERA	WHIP	K/9
Chapman	28	1.26	0.68	16.74
Kimbrel	31	1.26	0.65	15.7
	SO/BB	FIP	fWAR	Innings Pitched
Chapman	7.57	1.01	3.2	57
Kimbrel	6.82	0.98	2.3	43

	Wins	ERA	WHIP	K/9
Cueto	15	2.72	1.16	9.2
Dickey	15	2.45	1	7.07
Gonzalez	14	3.32	1.14	9.83
	SO/BB	FIP	fWAR	Innings Pitched
Cueto	3.43	2.88	4.1	162.1
Dickey	4.61	3.04	4.1	161.2
Gonzalez	2.85	2.7	4.1	141

In the second of the two charts I utilized the statistics of the three top starting pitchers in the National League, Johnny Cueto of the Reds, R.A. Dickey of the Mets, and Gio Gonzalez of the Nationals.  I highlighted some particularly important statistics in red.  As you can see, all three starting pitchers’ innings pitched (our sample size) dwarf those of their relief counterparts.  Chapman and Kimbrel obviously thrive at their jobs.  With K/9 rates both higher than 15.00, these two relievers barely allow the ball to be put in play. Even more so, they do not allow many base runners, as their WHIPS perfectly indicate. 

When calculating the statistic Wins Above Replacement, innings pitched plays a vital role.  The stat is a value statistic, thus it encompasses many of the crucial aspects of, in this case, pitching.  On www.fangraphs.com, the site from which I took this data, Chapman and Kimbrel do not even qualify for the category of WAR unless you remove the restriction of a specific number of innings pitched.  Even so, all three starting pitchers mentioned, have higher WARs than Chapman and Kimbrel.

The idea of considering these two closers for the Cy Young award should be discarded as soon as possible.  The two major reasons given when considering these two pitchers for the award are that no other starting pitcher is having an outstanding enough year to distance themselves from other pitchers, and that both Chapman and Kimbrel are having historic seasons.  I can’t deny these are not true, but I can tell you that they do not and should not matter when discussing who should win the award for best pitcher. 

Just because the decision on who wins this award will be difficult, does not imply that we need to start looking outside of the box for an answer.  Trust me, this is way outside of the box.  Oh, relievers have won the Cy Young in the past, but very few of them actually deserved it.  If you read the article I linked concerning the rules governing a save, you might have noticed that a pitcher can attain a save by pitching the last three innings of a game in which their team is winning.  The number of runs separating the teams plays almost no significance other than that the pitcher’s team in question must be winning the whole time.  Find me a relief pitcher who has accrued as many saves as Kimbrel and Chapman, but did so by throwing three innings at least most of the time, and I would consider them for the Cy Young Award. 

www.baseball-reference.com, calculates a pitcher’s performance in difference situations in a game.  They dub a specific type of situation a high leverage situation.  In my opinion, even a closer who pitches only in these high leverage situations but still throws a third of the number of innings that a starting pitcher does remains undeserving of the Cy Young Award.  This has yet to happen, and might make me think twice about just giving the award to a starter, but in the end, it would not sway my opinion.  Innings pitched, a true sample size, constitutes too much importance. 

The Great Mariano Rivera

My attitude in this situation seems quite closed minded.  Under no circumstance, even a clearly hypothetical one, will I consider a relief pitcher for the Cy Young.  That seems a bit unfair.  Given that the modern bullpen schematic seems fairly permanent, I think we should create a separate award for the best relief pitcher in baseball.  We can call it the Mariano Rivera Award, named after the hands-down best relief pitcher ever to take the mound.  Rivera has never won a Cy Young Award.   

This season I would give the Mariano Rivera Award to either Aroldis Chapman or Craig Kimbrel.  They demonstrate incredible relief statistics and both deserve to be considered for this hypothetical accolade.  I don’t know exactly who should win the Cy Young Award, but it should be a starting pitcher, not a relief pitcher.  Should we change the award to mean the best starting pitcher in baseball? Yes, we should, and simultaneously we should respect the specialization of the game and create the Mariano Rivera Award. 

In a true meritocracy, we shine a light on the best.  In this case, we do not need to reconsider who qualifies for a specific award as much as we should consider expanding the entire awards process to include another prize.   

It's All In Your Head

Do the dates July 24th - July 31st mean anything to you?  They may signify a long needed vacation, an upcoming heat wave, or an important business trip to a foreign destination.  For those in Major League Baseball, this is the week leading up to the trade deadline.  July 31st marks the official non-waiver trade deadline in Major League baseball.  Once August begins, 2 months remain in the regular season, thus the league decides to restrict the trading of players at a specific point in the second half of the season.  This deadline allows teams to improve prior to the deadline and focus on playing instead or wondering if they may lose of gain a teammate.

During this frenzy of rumors, proposals, and deals, pundits, commentators, and especially fans forget about the affects trades have on the players.  During this part of the summer, front offices play the part of CIA analysts dissecting mountains of information, scouts perform necessary reconnaissance of prospects, and general managers play the role of, well, general.  If these groups execute their jobs properly trades are made, teams looking for playoff berths make improvements, and those wistfully far from the post-season build for the future.

In my opinion, the most recent successful and crafty teams have been the Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, and Texas Rangers.  These teams usually find themselves as serious buyers and sellers around the trade deadline as opposed to the off-season when free-agency is the main focus.  Mid-level or poorer teams usually relinquish players to free-agency, but during the week leading up to the trade deadline, they make more noise due to their ability to afford players received in trades even if they cannot pony up enough money to sign them to long-term contracts.  To put it a better way, the week leading up to July 31st is a free-for-all.

Instead of focusing on who may be dealt and which prospect will be moved, I want to discuss a less touched upon but vital issue embedded within the cacophony of chatter.  How do trades affect players? Physically nothing changes but their uniforms, but mentally and strategically, everything changes.

Michael Bourn

Strategically, a player traded usually moves from a bad team to a good team.  Take Michael Bourn as an example from 2011.  Bourn played most of the 2011 season with the Houston Astros, but as the deadline approached the pathetic Astros traded their speedy center fielder to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for some major league ready young players and other prospects.  Bourn's preparation for every game shouldn't change too much, except that he will face more National League East pitching instead of Central division pitching.  Instead of the meager 2011 Pirates, Cubs, and Reds pitching staffs, Bourn needed to get ready for the likes of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Jordan Zimmerman, and Anibal Sanchez.  This represents a minor strategic shift.

C.C. Sabathia

An example of a greater change in strategy due to trade is typified in a trade made between the Cleveland Indians and Milwaukee Brewers in 2008.  The Indians, in no way bound for the playoffs, traded ace lefty C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers in exchange for Matt LaPorta and other prospects.  Sabathia went from the AL Central to the NL Central.  He would now prepare for many hitters he had never faced in his career, in addition to needing to prepare to hit with no designated hitter rule in the NL.  Sabathia, like Bourn in 2011, both showed their professionalism and talent by producing very well after switching teams.

Bourn				Sabathia
Team	Astros	Braves		Team	Indians	Brewers
Avg.	0.30	0.28		rWAR	1.70	4.70
OPS	0.77	0.67		ERA	3.83	1.65
rWAR	2.10	0.90		WHIP	1.23	1.00
Stolen Bases	39	22		FIP	3.41	2.44

So, the strategic differences involved in trades do not affect players performance to a significant extent.  That leaves the psychological challenges involved in the switching of teams.  A player's team is an affiliation.  Each player has a contract that states that in exchange for services of playing baseball the player is given an annual salary.  This contract goes beyond a piece of paper, and provides a player with camaraderie and allegiance.  Each player's fellow teammates represent their second family.  According to two sports psychology studies,

The effects of changing teams on the performance of major league baseball players

Nicholson, Craig; McTeer, William;White, Philip

Journal of Sport Behavior; Mar 1998; 21, 1; ProQuest  


AND

Pers Soc Psychol Bull 1988 14: 46

Jeffrey M. Jackson, Stephen A. Buglione and David S. Glenwick

A Drive Theory Analysis

Major League Baseball Performance as a Function of Being Traded

players traded mid-season find it difficult to cope with the idea that their former team did not want them anymore.  Often times players who feel this loss will compare themselves to the bounty corralled by their former team, a mistake because often these players are prospects who are unknown commodities.  

While some players find it difficult to leave their former teams, others find psychological issues in attempting to meet or exceed the expectations placed on them by their new squad.  Fans often see a new acquisition as the key to winning and thus place lots of pressure on these new members of their team. In doing so, player will find it difficult in acclimating to their new team.  According to these articles, this is usually not the case.  More often than not players use the stress or expectations placed upon them as a challenge.  Increases in batting average and slugging percentage were seen amongst hitters after switching teams mid-season, while pitchers saw a slight decrease in productivity, but not a to a significant extent.  

So, overall, the psychological effects of mid-season trades are positive, not negative.  Players tend to outperform their statistics from the first half of the season in an attempt to exceed the expectations placed on them and sometimes because they needed a change of scenery.  Sometimes a player's family plays a part in trades.  Cubs pitcher Ryan Dempster, who has the right to reject any trade in which he is involved, recently rejected a trade to the Atlanta Braves.  He did so not because he wishes to remain in Chicago, but due to his desire to be traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers because Los Angeles is closer to his family's home in Vancouver, Canada.  Most players do not have no-trade clauses in their contracts, and thus teams freely trade them to which ever team offers the best package in return.  

Ichiro, Playing Against His Former Team

Trading is risky business, not only for the organizations involved, but for the players psyches and performance.  For team's giving up solid prospects to attain a player they think will propel their squad to the playoffs, it is important to make the transition as smooth as possible.  For example, Ichiro Suzuki recently left Seattle for the Yankees after 11 and a half season with the Mariners.  This transition is not easy, but I'm sure the Yankees made sure to have all of the necessary accommodations to make the transition as easy as a spicy tuna roll (or is it pie?).  Overall, make sure, as a fan, to remember that MLB players are people, and just like being transferred from one part of a company to another affects your life, so do trades affect Major Leaguers.  

Middle Management

A Game of Skill:

Professional football coaches, analysts, scouts, and players often use the term "skill players."  Skill positions include the quarterback, running back, wide receiver, corner back, and safety.   Players at these positions are generally leaner and faster than linemen, and must provide skills such as throwing and catching that their more bulky teammates need not showcase.  What does the term "skill position" or "skill player" have to do with America's summer pastime?  Baseball, like its cousin football, can classify certain positions as needing more adroitness than others.  For argument's sake, no doubt every position in baseball needs skills, talent, and athleticism.Yet, the architects of an MLB roster must place greater emphasis and analytic energy into filling the positions of catcher, shortstop, second base, and centerfield.  One might place pitcher into a similar category, but for the sake of brevity let's reserve that for a separate discussion.  

Looking up the Middle:

Dr. Egon Spengler

To quote Dr. Egon Spengler from the movie Ghostbusters, "What are we talking about here?" Well, doctor, that's a great question.  I, not we, mention skill positions because I argue that they truly matter when forming a winning team.  I mentioned that baseball's skill positions are those that reside up-the-middle.  If one were to stand at home plate and look directly toward centerfield the positions in direct view are classified as the up-the-middle positions.  

No one who has ever played or followed baseball would disagree with the statement "Catchers are uniquely different from any other player on a baseball field."  Catchers have the onerous duty of protecting the most coveted spot on the baseball field, home plate.  They must know everything the pitcher knows, be able to throw out runners attempting to steal a base, perform their role as receiver, and hit at least well enough to remain in the line up on a nightly basis.  

While no position is as multifaceted or has as much responsibility as the catcher, shortstops play an important role as well.  Shortstops must simultaneously cover the most ground and deal with the most plays in the infield.  More righties play baseball than lefties; thus more ground balls are hit to the left side of the field than the right.  In addition, the shortstop must have a stronger and more accurate arm than the second baseman, while also playing an important role in all attempts to steal second base.  Often overlooked but no less important, the shortstop also plays a crucial role in directing and executing cut-offs from the outfield.  This list of responsibilities only covers the defensive tasks required of an MLB shortstop; the offensive duties are vast, but vary from player to player.  Overall, the shortstop is the captain of the infield, and usually constitutes either the top defensive talent or vocal leader on the team.  

Can You Spot the Up-The-Middle Positions?

Second base, while not requiring as many tools as shortstop, has many obligations.  The second baseman combines with the shortstop on double plays, cut-off throws, covering second on stolen base attempts, and most importantly, patroling the right side of the infield.  This last responsibility can become more difficult when the first baseman must cover first base in case of a pick-off attempt.  Speed, quickness, and range, constitute only a few of the necessary tools needed to play second base.

Finally, let's talk center field.  Defensively, the center fielder covers the most ground in the outfield, and must have a good arm in order to throw out runners attempting to reach second or third base.  Communication becomes paramount when playing centerfield as the centerfielder must range towards his counterparts in right and left field often, doing so while hoping to avoid a collision.  Some of the most athletic and talented players ever have roamed centerfield including Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr., Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, and Ty Cobb.  

As in the construction of a skyscraper, a solid foundation is vital.  While every position makes up 1/9 of the starting line up for an MLB team, these 4 position players are less replaceable than the other 4 (recall we have exempted the pitcher).  We speak often of wins above replacement or the value of a replacement player, but rarely, amidst all of this talk of replacement, do we remark that certain positions are not as replaceable as others.  Skill positions require specifically skilled or multi-skilled athletes that are not often found in left field, right field, third base, and first base.  

Often times, when I analyze a team the first thing I look at is the play and statistics of the skill position players.  Think about the best teams in baseball right now.  The Rangers, Angels, Yankees, and Braves all have very good up-the-middle combinations. (For a list of every team's fWAR up-the-middle positions click HERE)  The Rangers have the highest combined fWAR of any catcher, shortstop, second base, center field composite in baseball at 11.1 fWAR.  Josh Hamilton, Elvis Andrus, and Ian Kinsler are all indevidually having solid seasons.  The amalgam of Kinsler and Andrus provide above average to stellar defense up the middle for the Rangers.  Last season Kinsler and Andrus each had a UZR (a defensive metric incorporating a player’s range ) above 7.0, and this season both have been adequate up-the-middle.  While catcher Mike Napoli is experiencing a dip in every offensive category this season, Josh Hamilton's scorching start to the year has statistically made up for the regression of the Texas catcher.  

This chart shows the mean, median, range, and standard deviation of every 2012 up-the-middle position in Major League Baseball using fWAR as the evaluating statistic.

Mean	1.62	1.37	1.37	2.10	6.51
Median	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.9	6.55
Max	5.2	3.6	4.6	6.2	11.1
Min	-0.6	-0.7	-2.1	0.1	1.9
Standard Deviation	1.39	1.01	1.51	1.66	2.36

Turning the Double Play

Using UZR as our defensive metric of choice, the best defensive shortstop in MLB is Brendan Ryan of the Seattle Mariners, and the best second baseman is Robinson Cano of the Yankees.  You may have never heard of Ryan but Cano is a household name. He will compete for American League MVP this year.  Ryan adds little offensively, but due to his defense, he has saved about 14 runs from scoring this year.  That's about twice as many as the second best defensive shortstop in the majors, Starlin Castro of the Chicago Cubs.  Ryan's value comes almost completely from his defense.  Despite being far and away the best defensive shortstop, Ryan has only a 1.7 fWAR which is just above average for all MLB shortstops.  

Center fielders have it all.  They can run, jump, hit for average, hit for power, and play a highly valued skill position.  The best players in MLB in 2012 thus far have been center fielders.  Four out of the top 10 players according to fWAR this year play centerfield.  They are Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates, the Braves Michael Bourn, the Tigers’ Austin Jackson, and Angels rookie sensation Mike Trout.  Ever heard of these guys? If you haven't, I would advise learning about them, because all 4 are now and will be the best overall players in Major League Baseball for years to come.  

Eight years, $160 million dollars.  That is the contract recently signed by Dodgers center fielder Matt Kemp. Orioles center fielder Adam Jones recently signed a 6-year $85.5 million contract and others like B.J. Upton (Rays) and Michael Bourn (Braves) will soon be far wealthier men. Why will these players be paid so much money? Production.  Center fielders not only hit for average and power, but they also play great defense, and steal bases.  These deliverables, performed at a high level, usually lead to large contracts and, occasionally, world domination.  

Two of the best defensive catchers in the majors are Yadier Molina and Carlos Ruiz.  Include Joe Mauer and Buster Posey, and you have just identified a pair of players who have already signed huge contracts, Mauer and Molina, and a pair who will soon demand large sums of money, Ruiz and Posey.  Oftentimes, teams care less about offensive production from their catchers because of the value placed on a catcher's defense.  The four aforementioned catchers all hit well in addition to playing above average defense, and thus, like the center fielders mentioned above, represent some of the most complete players in all of Major League Baseball. 

Making the Big Money

What can we conclude from all of these data? Up-the-middle positions represent the keystone of a baseball team.  The 2012 Arizona Diamondbacks, Philadelphia Phillies, Minnesota Twins, and St. Louis Cardinals all have up-the-middle combined fWARs of 8.2 or above -- at least one standard deviation above the mean -- which proves that these squads will most likely remain competitive this season and have strong foundations on which to build for years to come.  

While up-the-middle position players represent the most complete athletes in baseball, corner outfielders, third baseman, and 1st basemen get much of the publicity and money.  The top 15 largest contracts ever signed in baseball history have been as follows: 

1	Alex Rodriguez	3B
2	Alex Rodriguez	3B (Contract #2)
3	Albert Pujols	1B
4	Joey Votto	1B
5	Prince Fielder	1B
6	Derek Jeter	SS
7	Joe Mauer	C
8	Mark Texiara	1B
9	C.C. Sabathia	LHP
10	Manny Ramirez	LF
11	Matt Kemp	CF
12	Troy Tulowitzki	SS
13	Adrian Gonzalez	1B
14	Miguel Cabrera	1B/3B
15	Carl Crawford	LF

Nine of the 14 non-pitchers on the list play a corner outfield, 1st or 3rd base.  Interestingly enough, the positions getting the largest contracts are not the same as those with the highest valued players.

In the End:

Whether you are at the ballpark, watching on television, listening on the radio, or checking the scores on the internet, next time you want to evaluate a team about which you know very little, check the players at catcher, 2nd base, shortstop, and centerfield.  If those players are solid, the team may be more formidable on a game-to-game basis than perceived by the general public.  

Let's Talk Pitching

This past Sunday Americans celebrated the end of the NFL season by eating lots of fried food, cheering for the players as much as the commercials, and then passing out praying their boss is a Giants fan.  Now that the Super Bowl is over, one fact remains, only 11 days until pitchers and catchers report to spring training.

In light of the imminent arrival of pitchers and catchers to Florida and Arizona I decided to write about pitching, and more specifically, starting pitching.  As I alluded to in my previous post, every starter in a rotation has the ability to contribute as much as his fellow starters.  The designation of #1 starter or #5 starter usually tells us something about a pitcher's value, but both the #1 and #5 starter in every rotation have equal opportunities to contribute.

This off-season a number of high quality starting pitchers changed teams including C.J Wilson (Rangers to Angels), Mark Buehrle (White Sox to Marlins), Edwin Jackson (Cardinals to Nationals), Gio Gonzalez (A's to Nats), and Matt Latos (Padres to Reds).  Recently the trend in Major League Baseball has been to compile an elite set of starters in order to achieve success.  Examples include the Phillies, Giants, Braves, and Rays.  No matter how a general manager accomplishes this goal, putting together a great rotation instead of a star studded lineup has become the norm. 

No division compiled more starting pitching in the last 3 years than the National League East.  Whether by trade, free agency, or through the draft, the NL East is chock-full or great starters.

Philadelphia Phillies:  When you think of great starting pitching there is almost no better place to start then the reigning NL East champion Phillies.  With All-starts Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels topping the Phillies rotation, Philadelphia is poised to claim a 6th consecutive NL east title.  With the emergence of Vance Worley as a reliable strike-throwing starter (61.5% F-strike%) the Phillies decided to allow the now older and more injury prone Roy Oswalt to test the free agent waters.  This makes their rotation younger and less expensive, especially since both Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels will be making considerably more money in 2012 than in 2011.  Rounding out the rotation is Joe Blanton.  Blanton spent almost the entire 2011 season on the disabled list, but was integral to the Phillies' World Series runs in 2008 and 2009 and, like Worley, should provide the Phillies with 5 strike-throwing starting pitchers.  Last season the Phillies 5 starting pitchers compiled a WAR of 28.8 utilizing Fangraphs' version of WAR.  In comparison the 2011 Marlins starters compiled a measly 15.5 total WAR.  The Phillies should be pleased with their rotation going into the 2012 season as it, along with the Giants rotation, is one of the top 2 rotations in the NL.

Atlanta Braves:  To say the Braves have depth in their starting rotation is a massive understatement.   7 different starters could easily see themselves in the Braves 2012 rotation.  Most teams would turn to the witchcraft to compile a group of arms like the Braves'.  While the Braves' depth seems almost like overkill, it may prove vital to their success.  Last season only veteran sinkerballer Tim Hudson reached the 200 inning plateau with no other Braves pitcher currently in the 2012 rotation throwing for more than 152.0 innings.  Beginning the season 4/5 of the Braves rotation was born in the 1980's with two other possibilities (Randall Delgado and Julio Tehran) under the age of 23.  The Braves rotation, unlike the Phillies, is made up of a lot of "ifs".  For example, if Tommy Hanson continues his success as a big strikeout pitcher and stays healthy... and if Jair Jurrjens stays healthy and performs as stellar post-All-star break as he does before mid-season... and if Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy pitch at a more veteran level than their ages... and finally if Randall Delgado and Julio Tehran live up to their highly touted statuses... the Braves could have the best rotation in baseball.  Is this likley?  Probably not, but the Braves rotation has the potential to be incredible, which is better than most.

If the Nats are to win Strasburg is the key

Washington Nationals: This is quite possibly the most intriguing starting rotation in all of Major League Baseball.  No discussion of the Nationals starters can begin with anyone but Stephen Strasburg.  As someone who has seen Strasburg pitch in person, I can tell you that he passes the eye test for ace starter.  Strasburg demonstrates poise and presence on the mound and has 3 plus pitches.  The only knock on the Nats phenom is that his sample size isn't large enough to make any bold statements as to his greatness.  His lack of experience coupled with recent Tommy John surgery usually don't bode well for young starters, but Strasburg's talent is unmatched.  In an attempt to improve their recently weak starting rotation the Nats flexed their wallets by trading and then extending Gio Gonzalez and then signing Edwin Jackson.  Gonzalez was one of the best lefties in the AL last season, but played in pitcher friendly Oakland.  Gonzalez compiles a lot of strikeouts, but his forte is getting into and then out of trouble.  The southpaw had a WHIP of 1.32 last season but a LOB% of 77.1%.  With a projected BABIP of .302 and a friendlier hitter's ballpark Gonzalez could get burned if he tires after the first time through the lineup, but overall he's a solid addition to the Nats rotation.  The best signing of the off-season may turn out to be the one-year deal the Nats gave to Edwin Jackson.  Over the last 4 seasons Jackson's FIP and WHIP have trended in a positive direction which bodes well for him in 2012.  Rounding out the rotation is John Lannan, but with the Nats declaring their desire to move him he may be pitching elsewhere very soon.  Chin-Ming Wang and Ross Detwiler will compete for the fifth starting spot.  Neither pitcher will significantly improve the rotation, but if Wang can compile a ground ball percentage of at least 50% he could make a significant impact.

Anibal Sanchez

Florida Marlins: Like the Nats, the Marlins rotation received a makeover.  New faces include Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano.  Adding Zambrano and Buehrle to Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, and Ricky Nolasco creates a fairly formidable rotation.  They key for Johnson is to stay away from the disabled list.  When he is healthy he is arguably the best pitcher in Major League Baseball, but for this team to do well he must stay healthy.  Sanchez's recent history shows a trend towards ace status, but even if he doesn't achieve #1 type numbers his presence will be felt.  Nolasco has been solid, with his numbers showing a shift from a strikeout pitcher to one who gets outs on the ground.  If Nolasco's numbers remain similar to last season he will have done his job.  Although the Marlins probably overpaid to get Buehrle, he is a lefty with impeccable control, which is invaluable.  Zambrano is obviously the wild card of the bunch, but I expect an improvement from him because if anyone can control crazy Carlos it's the wildest manager out there, Ozzie Guillen.

Maybe Mr. Met should pitch

New York Mets:  The Mets rotation sports Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, and R.A. Dickey.  If Santana can somehow become the pitcher he was before his arm issues, the Mets can basically count on one win every five games, but the odds of him returning to his Cy Young self are slim.  Pelfrey may be one of the most frustrating pitchers in the league in that every time he looks like he has crossed the threshold into greatness he regresses back to mediocrity.  Niese, Gee, and Dickey are all #4 caliber starters, but with the Mets projected to remain cellar dwellers in the east their contributions lack importance.

Overall, the NL East could be one of if not the best pitching divisions in Major League Baseball, but nothing is certain until they play the games.  Ranking these rotations isn't easy but I'm up for a challenge.  #1 Phillies #2 Nationals #3 Braves #4 Marlins #5 Mets.  The Marlins have the most potential to move up this list while the Braves and Nats have the most potential to move down.  One fact is certain, the battle for NL East supremacy will be a fight to the finish.