Patience

Chris Perez

Today, the Cleveland Indians announced that they had avoided arbitration with closer Chris Perez, settling on a 1-year $7.3 million contract. This was Perez's second year of arbitration, having qualified as a "super 2" player. MLB players with 3 years of service in the big leagues become eligible for arbitration. Arbitration lasts for 3 seasons, unless the player in question has almost three years of service (say 2 year 200 days) at the end of a season. In this case, MLB awards them "super 2" status, which allows the player to be eligible for arbitration for 4 years instead of the usual 3. Some teams have tried to use this to keep young players under team control for extra time, but the league recently changed the necessary dates of service time to make it more difficult for teams to exploit the apparent loophole.

Perez, a right-handed bullpen pitcher has served as the Indians closer since 2010. Ever since conforming Perez to the ninth inning role combined with his "super 2" status, has made Perez ever-increasingly expensive. Relievers are overvalued in the current MLB market; sometimes more often by arbitrators who weight saves as more important than true markers of success for bullpen pitchers. This combination has led to Perez's new 1-year contract of $7.3 million, which equates to about 1.33 fWins. Perez is young, and entering what can be the most fruitful years of a pitcher's career, meaning that he should be able to pitch up to, or at least close to, his annual average value. Since becoming the closer, Perez has accrued 1.6 fWins in 3 seasons for an average Fwins/season of 0.5 fWins. 0.5 Fwins is worth only $2.75 million, which is 38% of what he will be paid this year. Well, if it's so obvious that Perez won't be worth his 2013 contract based on his past performance, so is he set to improve to the point that he will?

As you can see from the graph to the left, Perez's strikeout numbers have fluctuated ending in a K/9 that ranked 51st amongst all 2012 qualified relievers. On a different note, Perez has consistently lowered his BB/9 numbers to end the season 39th amongst all relief pitchers. Essentially, Perez has been a decent bullpen pitcher, one that has improved in some areas, but not enough to make him one of the 20 best relief pitchers in Baseball. His numbers might cause some to wonder why he has been dubbed as the pitcher to throw in supposedly the most crucial situation for the Indians late in games. Maybe if he performed exceptionally well in the clutch, it might justify his AAV as well as his standing in the Cleveland bullpen. Unfortunately for Perez, his WPA/LI, which measures how well a player performs in high leverage situations in comparison to an average leverage situation, and Perez hasn't performed exceptionally well. His WPA/LI has been below 1.0 every year of his career, not a good sign, seeing as the top echelon of relievers (30 best), has a WPA/LI over 1.0 with names like Rodney, Chapman, and Kimbrel all hovering around 2.0 or greater WPA/LI.

Given that we have now proven that Perez's $7.3 million salary is quite inflated, even assuming some improvement, the next question to ask is why have the Indians not considered trading Perez. The Indians, while improving their status this offseason, haven't made significant enough improvements to put them in the discussion for possible playoff team. This fact only adds to my confusion as to why Indians GM Chris Antonetti didn't make a deal to move Perez before coming to a 1-year deal. Now, it is completely possible that the Indians decide to trade Perez now, after setting a definite price tag to him, but that possibility is logically outweighed by the chance that that the Indians go into 2013 with Perez in their bullpen. Given Perez's soft numbers, it's possible that Antonetti wants to wait and see if Perez's stock rises before flipping him so as to receive the best possible package in return.

League

Hanrahan

According to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, as of January 6th, the Indians were still considering trade offers for Perez, but wouldn't budge unless they could receive a similar package to the one the team swindled for outfielder Shin-Soo Choo. Choo brought back outfielder Drew Stubbs and pitcher Trevor Bauer. Given that the Indians have set an asking price, maybe we should take a look at recent trades for relievers of similar or better caliber to get a sense of what the Indians might expect in return for Perez. So far this offseason two comparable relievers were moved. The Red Sox traded Jerry Sands, Stolmy Pimentel, and Mark Melancon to the Pirates in exchange for Joel Hanrahan and Brock Holt. Hanrahan represents the comparable reliever. Most thought that this trade broke down to Hanrahan for Melancon, which pundits quickly dubbed a victory for the Pirates. Hanrahan had a very lucky season last year given his peripherals while Melancon fought off a tough start to put together solidly underrated numbers. Melancon is younger and under team control for more years, making him slightly more valuable than Hanrahan. The other trade this offseason was between the Astros and Rockies. The Astros dealt reliever Wilton Lopez to the Rockies for minor league pitchers Alex White and Alex Gillingham. Both prospects are starting pitchers, each with enough deficiencies to label them both as projects. So, so far we have one reliever exchanged for another reliever of slightly better standing and the 2nd acquired for 2 project prospects. These aren't lofty hauls.

During the 2012 season 2 other "big time" relievers swapped teams, Jonathan Broxton and Brandon League. League went to LA for 2 prospects, one an outfielder with some upside and the other a relief pitcher who made double A last season, but struggles with his control. Broxton was moved in exchange for Donnie Joseph and J.C. Sulbaran. Josepth is a lefty specialist out of the bullpen who has put up very good numbers in AA and AAA, leading the Royals to put him on their 40-man roster heading into 2013. Sulbaran projects as a 4 or 5 starter who has the build to be an innings eater and the numbers to back it up. Both Broxton and League were under less team control than Perez, but both performed better than Perez prior to being traded. In 2011, 3 comparable relievers were traded midseason and 2 in the offseason, all yielding similar packages in return with the exception of the swap between the Rangers and the Blue Jays. In that deal, which was made in the offseason, the Blue Jays sent catcher Mike Napoli to the Rangers in exchange for reliever Frank Francisco. This was just prior to Napoli's power surge, making the deal very skewed in Texas' favor.

Overall, this analysis of previous trades gives us a sense of Perez's realistic trade value. Teams that are in the market for Perez's services include the San Francisco Giants, Detroit Tigers, Toronto Blue Jays, and possibly the Cincinnati Reds. On the other hand, by the time the 2013 trade deadline roles around, that list may have grown to almost twice the size. Simple economics teach us that it is best to buy low and sell high. So, the Indians want to wait until Perez is at his highest demand before flipping him, which might be now, or could be in 6 months. At the moment I'd be surprised if the Indians could get more than a similar deal to the one that Astros got for Wilton Lopez. Lopez was a far better reliever than Perez in 2012, but he comes with some injury concerns (Just ask the Phillies), so his stock was about the same as Perez's is now. I expect the Indians would much rather receive one top 6 prospect than 2 high ceiling/low floor prospects like the Astros got for Lopez. This leads me to believe that Perez, if moved, won't call a new city home until June or July. Recently, with the Nationals' signing of Rafael Soriano, the pattern of NL teams polishing their rosters by stacking their bullpens has emerged. This advent has made Perez look more and more like a very likely future trade candidate, so watch out for teams like the Pirates, Phillies, and Reds to come calling looking for relief help midseason.

In the offseason, MLB lovers grasp onto anything to quell their desire for Baseball given the lack of games being played. This includes looking for a trade wherever possible, and over-analyzing every move made from the flashiest to the most diminutive. Anyone who works in an MLB front office has to be immune to such temptations because oftentimes it is not skill, guile, or competitiveness that leads to the best results, but good timing. MLB General Managers and their staff's have to act as stock traders, timing the market at the precise time so as to cash in for the best possible return. Antonetti and the Indians seem to be waiting patiently, asking for too much and fending off lesser offers for Perez now, hoping to time the market perfectly later to and get the high caliber prospect they are looking for in return for Perez. Such patience should be admired, as some GM's due to pressure from all sorts of sources often jump the gun and make a hasty trade that backfires with ease. The Mariners recent trade for Michael Morse marks a good example of such a move. The Indians know Perez is not worth the money they are paying him right now, but in due time, he may reap benefits they hadn't even though possible.

Recent Movement: Part 1

Baseball's Winter Meetings may be over, but it doesn't mean the shopping has stopped. We are only a few weeks away from the biggest gift giving time of the year, and it seems like Baseball's general managers have gotten the message. Recently, a number of big names have found new homes, and I have taken it upon myself to evaluate these deals. So, let's get started.

Greinke In Dodger Blue

Dodgers sign Zack Greinke to a 6-year $147 million contract: Yes, the moment we were all waiting for. Greinke represented the largest domino out there; once he signed, we would see every other pitcher on the market begin signing contracts. Greinke's contract makes him the highest paid right-handed pitcher ever, and the contract's average annual value of $24.5 million surpasses the C.C. Sabathia's $24.4 million AAV as the record for a pitcher on a multiyear contract. The Dodgers had money to spend, and they went for the gold. Greinke joins Josh Beckett and Clayton Kershaw atop the Dodgers rotation, giving them a solid 1-2-3- punch that every playoff team needs. Greinke's contract will take him through his age 34 season, which means the Dodgers will get Greinke's production before it begins to seriously slip due to age. PECOTA forecasts Greinke's future value as such:

	WARP
2013	3.5
2014	3.5
2015	3.4
2016	3.1
2017	2.9
2018	2.6
Average	3.17
Median	3.25

If we extrapolate those forecasts to value in dollars, this deal should benefit both Greinke and the Dodgers. Greinke has proven he can pitch in both the American League (Kansas City Royals and LA Angels) and the National League (Milwaukee Brewers). There is little to say about Greinke's production or this contract, as it seems as though both sides accomplished their respective goals. Greinke becomes a very very rich man who will be in annual contention to make the playoffs, and the Dodgers acquired the top-tier starting pitcher they needed to complement fellow ace Clayton Kershaw, making a big splash with their newfound deep pockets. The Dodgers and Rangers were both vying for Greinke's services, but the Dodgers came out on top. Choosing LA over Texas makes sense for Greinke given that Dodger Stadium ranks tied for the 25th least hitter friendly park in the majors (Park factor of 0.867) while the Ballpark in Arlington ranks as the 4th most hitter friendly park in the league (Park factor of 1.183).

My Grade: A (Greinke and the Dodgers both wanted this union. The Dodgers look to have paid a reasonable amount, while Greinke made a solid career choice, choosing a more hitter friendly home park over the exact opposite.)

Pirates sign RHP Jason Grilli to a 2-year $6.75 million contract: The most fascinating part of this deal is that former MLB outfielder Gary Sheffield represents Jason Grilli. Apart from that aesthetic aspect of this deal, the Pirates sured up their bullpen by bringing back the 33rd best reliever in MLB in 2012 according to Fangraphs calculation of Wins Above Replacement. For comparison's sake, let's look at both Jonathan Broxton and Raphael Soriano, who ranked just better than Grilli last season. Soriano remains a free agent, but he did turn down a qualifying offer ($13.5 million/1 season) to test the waters for more money, showing that he thinks his services are worth more than $13.5 million per season. Broxton recently signed a 3-year $21 million contract with the Reds, which puts his worth at about $7 million per season. Grilli's new contract will net him about $7 million over two years. See the difference? The Pirates made out great here.

	IP	K/9	BB/9	LOB%	FIP	WAR
Jonathan Broxton	58	6.98	2.64	79.2%	3.03	1.3
Rafael Soriano	67.2	9.18	3.19	88.0%	3.32	1.2
Jason Grilli	58.2	13.81	3.38	82.8%	2.8	1.1

The pirates retain a veteran back end of the bullpen pitcher who strikes out hitters at a great rate, and does a good job of keeping base runners from scoring. Grilli is durable, putting up the same number of innings pitched as Broxton who is 8 years Grilli's junior.

My Grade: A- (The Pirates are taking a chance on an older reliever who has never posted K/9 numbers like he did in 2012. It probably points toward some regression, but even still, this is a very team friendly contract. Given the Pirates young arms in the rotation, giving Clint Hurdle a reliable righty in the pen is a solid move.)

Twins sign RHP Kevin Correia to a 2-year $10 million contract: This deal isn't a blockbuster, but I'm sure we can find something interesting here. Correia is a replacement level pitcher who has the ability to "eat innings". Correia was lucky to get a 2-year contract given his less than stellar production over the last few years, but if any team were to sign the veteran, the Twins make some sense. While many of us think of Target Field as a pitcher's park, in reality it is the 10 best hitter's park in the Majors. This means that Correia's numbers could take even a greater turn for the worse in Minnesota. He'll be pitching in a hitter friendly park while simultaneously moving from the NL to the AL. This deal heavily favors Correia since he'll be getting paid an AAV of $5 million, which equates to about 0.9 wins per season, a number, that given his recent production, will prove difficult for Correia to achieve.  On the other hand, if Correia puts up solid first half numbers in 2013, he could be a perfect trade deadline candidate as he has a team friendly deal with a full year of control for 2014. If his production continues to decline, the Twins have essentially signed a place holder until recently acquired young pitchers like Trevor May and Alex Meyer are ready to play big-league ball.

My Grade: C- (A lot of ifs are involved here. He could turn out to be a valuable asset, but too much of the evidence points towards the opposite. Correia is making way more money than he's likely to be worth, so from his side, this deal is an A.)

Kevin Youkilis

Yankees sign 3B Kevin Youkilis to a 1-year $12 million contract: It was no surprise to anyone when the rumors came in about the Yankees being in hot pursuit of Kevin Youkilis. Youkilis represented the best free agent option at third base, and with Yankees 3B Alex Rodriguez out for at least the first half of 2013, the Yankees would settle for nothing less than the best available option. Last season the Red Sox replaced Youkilis with a younger model, but shipped him off to the Windy City. In Chicago, Youkilis got back on track, returning from an injury to post solid numbers (109 wRC+, .339 wOBA, and .188 ISO). PECOTA projects Youkilis to return to his former self, 3.9 WARP, .303 TAv, and .374 OBP. Youk, known as the "Greek God of Walks", has always provided value by getting on base at well above average rates, while providing enough power to compensate for his utter lack of speed. The Yankees gain a versatile veteran who gets on base, and might produce more value than a healthy A-rod would. Youkilis is looking to show the league that he hasn't lost a step despite a down year in 2012, hoping to net himself a multi-year contract beginning in 2014. 

My Grade: B+ (This deal works for both sides. Honestly, the Yankees should have made a longer commitment to Youkilis. A-rod is as close to a sunk cost as a player can get, and if Youkilis can replace Rodriguez for the next 3 seasons, it might seriously benefit the Yanks. This deal gives the Bronx Bombers some options, as Cashman and company can let Youkilis go after 2013 and either make a deal for another third baseman, or risk going with A-Rod in the future. Youkilis gets a healthy contract, looking to justify a multi-year deal going into 2014.)

Ichiro Suzuki

Yankees sign OF Ichiro Suzuki to 2-year $13 million contract: At 39 years old, Ichiro is not the superstar he once was, but he's still a viable MLB outfielder. After performing miserably at the plate in Seattle last year, Ichiro resurrected his hitting production in NYC, going from a .261/.288/.353 slash line as a Mariner to a .322/.340/.454 slash line in pinstripes. The biggest difference in Ichiro's approach to the plate between his time in Seattle and New York in 2012 was that in NYC, Ichiro became more selective. His swing percentage dropped from 49.8% to 46.6%, which caused an increase in hitter's counts. By becoming more selective, Ichiro saw more fastballs, and thus began to put the ball in play in places that allowed him to reach base safely. He his more home runs in New York (thank you short porch), and hit the ball on the ground more often, causing his infield hit percentage to double. The biggest drop off between his play on the west coast and his play on the east was Ichiro's defense. He posted a +13 DRS in Seattle while compiling a well below average -7 DRS playing in the New York outfield. This is a wild swing in defensive abilities, but given the difference in total plays made between Ichiro in Seattle and in New York, the difference in defensive efficiency can be explained by a massive difference in sample size. In the few plays Ichiro made in New York, he didn't perform well, but had he made 4 times as many plays, his top-notch defense would have shown through. The Yankees don't have a proven lead off hitter, but the combination of Brett Gardner, Derek Jeter, and now Ichiro Suzuki should serve as suitable fill-ins. The most surprising part of the deal is that Ichiro found a contract offer for more than 1-year, but after rumors surfaced that the Phillies has offered Ichiro a similar contract, the Yankees were forced to pony up an extra year in order to retain Ichiro's services.

My Grade: B (The Yankees get a cheap option to play the outfield well who uses his speed and savvy to get on base and create runs. Ichiro got the ever illusive 2nd year despite being 29 years old. This isn't a perfect deal since Ichiro's age points towards a decrease in future production, and the Yankees have other needs to fill.)

Reds sign 3B Jack Hannahan to a 2-year $4 million contract: This isn't a biggie, but it is worth noting. The Reds recently acquired Shin-Soo Choo from the Indians via trade, but with the likelihood of the Indians bringing back Scott Rolen decreasing by the second, Hannahan makes a find replacement. Hannahan is a solid defender at third base, putting up a positive DRS in all 5 of his MLB seasons. On the other hand, FRAA, used by Baseball Prospectus, shows that Hannahan has always been a top defender, posting a 16.1 and 10.9 FRAA in 2011 and 2012 respectively. As far as back-up infielders go, Hannahan will serve the Reds well. Hannahan's splits show a huge disparity between his ability to hit right-handed pitching over left-handed pitching. Hannahan posted a 100 wRC+ vs. RHP last season, but an abysmal 40 wRC+ against left-handers. Look for the Reds to put Hannahan in the starting lineup when the Reds run up against right-handers. 

My Grade: B+ (I like this deal for both sides. Hannahan was essentially left out to dry by the Indians, but Cleveland is all about rebuilding at the moment, and a solid platoon third baseman would only take up a roster spot for the Indians. For the Reds, Hannahan represents half the answer at the hot corner. Hannahan will platoon with Todd Frazier, an up and comer for the Reds on the left-side of the infield.)

That's all for this edition of free-agent frenzy, join us next time when we discuss the Josh Hamilton signing, as well as others. 

Two Outfield Trade Candidates: Josh Willingham

Yesterday I wrote about a good candidate to be traded this offseason in Cleveland Indians outfielder Shin-Soo Choo. Today I am going to perform a similar analysis on another outfielder who could be traded, the Minnesota Twins' Josh Willingham. Willingham, or "The Hammer", is a 33 year old left fielder who signed a 3-year $21 million contract with the Twins last offseason. He has two years remaining on his current deal, which is set to pay him $7 million per season. Let's find out a little more about Josh.

Willingham began his career with the Florida Marlins, but in 2008 the Marlins traded him to the Washington Nationals. On average, since 2009, Willingham has proven to be a worth more than 2.5 fWAR.

	fWAR	rWAR	WARP
2009	2.5	2.3	3.2
2010	3	2.6	2.1
2011	2	2.1	2.9
2012	3.9	2.9	4.5

 As you can see, while Willingham does not provide all-star caliber numbers every season, he is consistently solid. Other outfielders with similar fWAR numbers since 2009 include Andre Ethier, Cory Hart, and Adam Jones. The next logical question is, how does Willingham provide value? What would a team, willing to trade for him, be getting?

Josh Willingham has never, and will most likely never be a great defender. He isn't very fast, and won't steal many bases. Most of what he provides a team comes from his offensive abilities. Take a look at these numbers. 

	Tav	wOBA	wRC+
2009	0.296	0.375	129
2010	0.299	0.375	132
2011	0.305	0.350	122
2012	0.312	0.380	143

Tav stands for true average, which is Baseball Prospectus' way of improving the statistic of batting average. It is scaled similarly, but incorporates other aspects like reaching base by error when calculating the average. It is a linearly weighted average, and adjustments are made in the calculation to factor for parks and league. Willingham has been consistently great at producing runs. He has high Tav, wOBA, and wRC+ showing a well-rounded approach at plate. As you can see below, Willingham produces both by getting on base as well as hitting for power. 

	HR	R	OBP	ISO
2009	24	70	0.367	0.237
2010	16	54	0.389	0.192
2011	29	69	0.332	0.232
2012	35	85	0.366	0.264

In the last 4 seasons Willingham ranks 12th amongst all outfielders in wOBA, a metric that does a great job portraying a players' overall offensive contribution. His 104 home runs since 2009 rank him 9th amongst all outfielders, just behind 2012 free agents Josh Hamilton (110) and Nick Swisher (105). In addition, he ranks 12th amongst outfielders in BB%, while striking out at about an average rate. From a hitting perspective, Willingham, despite his age, is a jewel. Due to his versatility to both get on base and hit for power, Willingham can bat in any spot in the order from 2nd all the way to 6th and be productive from each spot. 

Defensively, Willingham plays a low-key position. Amongst the three outfield positions, center field and right field are deemed as more defensively difficult positions to play. Players who are great defenders are put in center field, those with slightly less defensive ability but still good arms are put in right field, while outfielders who hit far better than they field usually end up in left field. That isn't to say that left field is similar to the designated hitter, but it isn't as important to be a superb defender when playing left field. Here are some of Willingham's defensive numbers since 2009.

	UZR	DRS	FRAA
2009	-5.7	-4	1.9
2010	-1.9	1	-9.2
2011	-5.4	0	-3
2012	-7.9	-13	4.8

 From a range perspective, Willingham fails due to his lack of speed. He can't cover nearly as much ground as better fast fielders so bloop hits fall in front of him, gappers get by him, and he isn't jumping over the wall to take away home runs. On the other hand, Willingham has a decent arm, and Baseball Prosepctus' defensive metric FRAA has twice in the last 4 seasons shown him to be above average at making the plays necessary to make in left field. In addition, it is important to note that in 2011 and 2012 Willingham played in big ballparks in Oakland and Minnesota, which can be tougher for outfielders who that slower. This may have contributed to his consistently negative UZR numbers. 

Since 2009 Willingham has earned just over $20 million dollars, but according to Fangraphs, he has been worth four times that amount. Outperforming one's contract by 4x is incredible, it shows that Willingham has continued to exceed expectations, a sign of a player who continues to work on his craft, a quality that cannot be underemphasized. If Willingham puts up between 4-6 fWAR over the next two seasons, he would be worth between $18-$27 million but, he is only set to be paid $14 million over the next two seasons combined. In addition, if Willingham's production drops, any team that trades for him will be rid of him by 2015, a reasonable bargain.  

So, now that we know what he brings to a team, and that he has been quite undervalued throughout his career, we have to ask ourselves one important question. Why would the Twins want to trade Josh Willingham? Well, the Twins haven't been a very good team the last two seasons, and they signed Willingham to a deal last winter partially hoping that if they continued to lose more than they won, he would be a perfect trade candidate. The Twins need to rebuild with young players, and they especially need pitching. So, any team willing to give up a B level pitching prospect or two could swipe Willingham and his affordable contract without an issue. 

Teams that should seriously consider trading for Willingham include the Phillies, Braves, Rays, Orioles, and Reds. 

As I articulated yesterday, the Phillies need outfield help, whether it be at a corner outfield spot or in center field. Domonic Brown will most likely play in one spot, but the other two are uncertain. Trading for Willingham would give the Phillies a power hitting right-handed bat that gets on base who can protect slugger Ryan Howard. In addition, he would break up the lefties in the middle of the Phillies order so if opposing teams bring in lefty specialists to get them, they would have to deal with Willingham and his .384 wOBA off of lefties last season. They don't have much in the farm system, but if Ruben Amaro wants to win next season, Willingham would be a great low cost, high reward player. He is a better version of Pat Burrell at a much lower cost.

Chipper Jones has retired. It opens up a hole at third base for the Atlanta Braves. If the Braves want to, they can fill this hole by moving 2012 left fielder Martin Prado to third base. He has played there before, and, especially in the current market, it is easier to find a replacement in the outfield than at third. The Braves, have three young pitchers that the Twins would want including Julio Tehran, Randall Delgado, and Mike Minor. My guess is that Minor is off limits, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Braves would be willing to part with Delgado or Tehran in order to claim Willingham. The Braves need to replace Jones' offensive production, especially given Brian McCann's recent offensive woes, and Willingham could do just that.

The Tampa Bay Rays are the perfect fit for Josh Willingham. The Rays have phenomenal pitching, and they have a bunch of it. The team recently brought back James Shields, and continues to produce great young pitchers like Alex Cobb and Matt Moore. Most importantly, the Rays need to upgrade their meek offense, but as usual, do so at a low cost. A trade that sent Rays righty Jeremy Hellickson to the Twins for Josh Willingham might be exactly what both teams need. Hellickson is a pitch-to-contact righty who is young, has MLB experience, and even won the AL rookie of the year award in 2011. He would be perfect pitching in Target Field, and the would immediately upgrade the Twins rotation at very little cost. The Rays have a need for Willingham and the necessary trade pieces to make this deal happen. Willingham's $7 million/season contract is a bit on the high side for a team like the Rays, but if they simultaneously dealt lefty David Price, it could lead to some serious payroll relief.

The argument for the Orioles is simple. The team needs better offensive production. They cannot count on Chris Davis to be as hot from the plate as he was towards the end of last season, and Willingham would provide a steady presence in their lineup. An outfield consisting of Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Josh Willingham would give the O's stability in the middle of their order, and another solid veteran presence on a young team. Willingham has played in the area before, and might like a change of scenery from cold Minnesota to warmer Baltimore. 

The Reds two best hitters are both lefties. Joey Votto and Jay Bruce provide a lot of umph in the middle of the Reds order, but if the Reds were to add Willingham to the bunch, it would allow Dusty Baker to split the two lefties up in the lineup. Ryan Ludwick was a revelation for the team last season, but he has been very up and down the last few seasons, and cannot be counted on to have a repeat performance. Home run friendly Great American Ballpark would be an upgrade for Willingham. He was able to 35 home runs in the much bigger Target Field, so his production should go up playing more in the warmer air and smaller confines of Great American Ballpark. The issue here is if the Reds have what it takes to land Willingham. They recently traded prospects to get Mat Latos, Jonathan Broxton, etc... so while Willingham makes sense in Cincinnati, I'm not sure they can pony up enough to acquire him.

In the end, I think Willingham ends up in Tampa Bay. The Rays almost make too much sense here. They need a low cost power bat, have exactly what the Twins are looking for in return, and due to cost concerns have little choice to upgrade vio free agency. This deal would make sense for both teams. The Rays have so much good young pitching, I can see three possible deals unfolding. 

Deal 1) Twins send Josh Willingham and $2 million to the Rays in exchange for RHP Jeremy Hellickson

Deal 2) Twins send Josh Willingham to the Rays in exchange for RHP Wade Davis

Deal 3) Twins send Josh Willingham to the Rays in exchange for RHP Chris Archer

If the Twins are serious about rebuilding, they need to trade players like Josh Willingham, and do so before he becomes less attractive. Teams like the Rays, Phillies, and Braves need someone like him, so watch out for an upcoming deal. Most importantly, remember that in this offseason where more than 100 free agents will sign new contracts, sometimes it's better to upgrade via trade.