Call to The Pen

Last season, the Orioles shocked the Baseball world by turning the tables on the usual suspects in the AL East by winning 93 games, nabbing second place in the AL East, and one of the two wild card spots. The O's made the playoffs in 2013, making their way back to the post season for the first time in 1997. After making quick work of the Texas Rangers in the wild card play-in game, the Orioles ran into the Bronx Bombers in the ALDS. The Yankees outlasted the O's, beating them in a decisive game 5 to move on to the League Championship Series.

Since then, the AL East has undergone a make over. The Red Sox ridded themselves of big contracts like Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, as well as distractions like Josh Beckett. The Sox have since replaced that trio with a group of veterans like Shane Victorino, David Ross, Ryan Dempster, Jonny Gomes, Mike Napoli, and Stephen Drew. General Manager Ben Cherington prudently signed no players tied to draft pick compensation, and predominantly went after players considered "sure things" as opposed to big names and thus big risks.

Across the border, Blue Jays made the deal of the offseason, acquiring Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, Josh Johnson, and Mark Buehrle from the Miami Marlins in exchange for a bus load of prospects. After  years of prospect cultivation and development, the Blue Jays decided to use some young talent as currency in order to make a run at the playoffs. The Jays added the cherry on top of the sundae by making a second deal, this one for the reigning NL Cy Young award winner, knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. With this infusion of talent and experience, especially in the rotation, the Blue Jays are prime to make the playoffs for the first time since 1993.

The Rays, that scrappy young club from St. Petersburg, continued to rake in the young, talented, cheap, and team controlled players by trading veteran pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis to Kansas City. In Return the Rays received stud prospect Wil Myers along with pitcher Jake Odorizzi. While this deal didn't compare in size or impact to the dealings of the Blue Jays, the Rays secured one of the top MLB-ready talents in the minors without trading AL Cy Young award winner David Price, who's expensive arbitration years just kicked in. While this move might set the Rays back at first, with prospects like Chris Archer and youngsters like Jeremy Hellickson and Alex Cobb vying for places in the Rays rotation, Tampa looks to remain relevant in 2013 as well as the foreseeable future.

The Yankees offseason involved signing a number of older veteran players to short-term contracts, plugging holes, in order to stay under the luxury tax, but also not fall into the cellar of the AL East. The Yanks brought back Ichiro, Andy Pettitte, and Hiroki Kuroda, while adding veteran Kevin Youkilis to man the hot corner at 3rd. While these moves seem a bit desperate on the surface, the Yankees made shrewd moves that should keep them germane in the AL East in 2013. The only hole in the Yankees roster seems to be behind the plate, but the team has all spring training to figure out their backstop issues.

So, with every team in the AL East realistically eyeing the playoffs for the first time in years, what aspect might separate one from the rest of the pack? Last season, the Orioles used their brilliant bullpen to push them just past the Rays into the playoffs, and it seems as though the relief core may be the key to the east once again. In 2013, the O's bullpen put up a combined 6.4 fWAR, which ranked 3rd in the American League behind only the Royals and the Rays. Orioles relievers made quick work of the final innings of a game not by utilizing the strikeout, but instead by inducing more ground balls than any other AL East pen. In addition, the O's gave out few free passes, ranking second, behind only the Rangers, in BB/9.

Team	K/9	BB/9	LOB%	GB%	FIP	WAR
Rays	9.33	2.88	77.10%	46.40%	3.19	6.7
Orioles	7.49	2.87	78.50%	49.10%	3.68	6.4
Yankees	8.92	3.2	77.60%	44.90%	3.62	5.5
Red Sox	8.31	3.38	74.80%	45.10%	3.91	4.6
Blue Jays	8.58	3.51	74.10%	43.10%	4.21	2.5

The Orioles didn't have the best offense, nor stellar starting pitching, but Buck Showalter's bullpen kept the team in every game, making the Orioles a deadly foe in close games. Unfortunately for Baltimore, their incredible winning percentage in 1-run games and extra inning games came halted in the ALDS in which 4 out of the 5 games played ended with a margin of victory of just 1 run. Given that the Orioles bullpen became their key to success, and the growing parity in the AL East, what have Baltimore's rivals been up to?

David Robertson

The Yankees lost a key part of their 2012 bullpen, righty Raphael Soriano, but they were able to parlay his success into an additional draft pick by offering him a qualifying offer that he didn't accept. Instead, once Soriano signed with his new club, the Washington Nationals, the Yankees picked up a compensatory pick, which turns out to be the 32nd pick in this summers upcoming draft. The Yankees willingly parted with their 2012 bullpen anchor given Soriano's desire for a lucrative multi-year contract, the ability to obtain a draft pick in return, and most importantly knowing that future Hall-Of-Famer Mariano Rivera would return in 2013 to fill the hole left by Soriano. In addition to Rivera's return, the Yankees still have Nate Robertson, the strikeout machine, who has posted a 12.20 K/9, 2.70 FIP, and accumulated 6.0 fWAR since 2009. Between Robertson, Rivera, and a mix of Boone Logan from the left side, the Yankees bullpen should hold up late in games.

Roberto Hernandez

The Rays made some minor changes to their bullpen, but given their recent success, these changes should prove fruitful. Tampa traded ground ball specialist Burk Badenhop to the Brewers, replacing him with Roberto Hernandez, the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona. Carmona, like Badenhop throws from the right side, and more importantly throws a hard sinker that induces a great number of ground balls. Since becoming a regular in the Majors, Hernandez has posted a ridiculous 58.4 ground ball percentage, good enough for a 2.26 GB/FB ratio. Hernandez did most of his previous work from the starting rotation, and while the Rays may ask him to spot start in a pinch, his role will be out of the bullpen where Joe Madden expects him to induce ground ball after ground ball. The Rays also resigned Joel Peralta while retaining the services of All-Star closer Fernando Rodney by picking up the 2013 team option attached to his contract. Add those names to lefty fire baller Jake McGee, and the Rays bullpen looks ready to buttress their young starting pitching for another season.

Koji Uehara

The Red Sox made headlines by signing lots of free agents this offseason, including a few in the bullpen. The Sox signed southpaw, and well traveled, Craig Breslow, now onto his 7th MLB franchise, to a conservative 2-year $6.25 million contract, added former Ranger's righty Koji Uehara for 1-year and $4.25 million, and traded for former Pirates closer Joel Hanrahan. In addition, the Sox will benefit from the return of Andrew Bailey from an injury marred 2012 campaign, especially since Bailey's 2013 will determine how much money the reliever will get paid in his 3rd year of arbitration. Oliver, a projection system created by Hardball Times' Brian Cartwright, projects good numbers from the Red Sox bullpen, especially from Uehara, who I think represents the keystone to success for this relief core. Also, don't forget about Daniel Bard, who many at spring training say is progressing nicely and might fit into the Sox pen around after All-Star break if the team moves a pitcher a the trade deadline.

Name	ERA	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Koji Uehara	2.99	10.15	1.39	2.74
Joel Hanrahan	3.64	9.90	3.93	3.08
Andrew Bailey	3.99	8.25	3.20	3.12
Junichi Tazawa	3.77	8.67	2.89	3.28
Craig Breslow	3.75	7.93	3.32	3.51
Alfredo Aceves	4.35	7.10	3.44	3.86
Andrew Miller	5.17	8.58	6.34	4.10
Total	3.95	8.65	3.50	3.38

The 2013 Blue Jays bullpen looks eerily similar to the 2012 pen that ranked middle of the road in some statistical categories and poor in others amongst AL teams. They coaxed lefty Darren Oliver to return, and remain hopeful that Sergio Santos can overcome shoulder surgery to return to his level of nastiness by June. The Jays put a lot of faith in their starting rotation, stocking it with work horses like R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle, as well as possible ace Josh Johnson. These three starters should lessen the load on the Blue Jays pen, but given Johnson's injury history and Buehrle's age, the Jays may need to call on their relievers in 2013 more often than they expect.

Darren O'Day

How about those Orioles? Did the organization with the golden bullpen do anything to improve on 2012? Instead of adding or subtracting, the Orioles did their best to keep their 2012 bullpen in tact for 2013. The O's avoided arbitration with Jim Johnson and Darren O'Day, two of the most utilized and important parts of their 2012 relief prosperity. The team returns Luis Ayala, Tommy Hunter, lefty Brian Matusz, and Troy Patton, all of whom they hope will continue to perform at a high level. While the O's may not have "upgraded" their bullpen, the team expects to add one if not two highly touted starting pitching prospects in mid-season, Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman. With the addition of these young stars to an already solid starting pitching staff, the Orioles have no need to tinker with a bullpen that already promises to keep men off base, and to induce lots of double plays late in games.

The AL East is a free for all in 2013, with no one team looking like the current favorite. Given that fact, each team has done their best to ensure that their bullpen won't be the one to falter in 2013. Most of a team's success derives from hitting and starting pitching, but with 5 teams so close to each other in talent and projected wins, it may come down to which relief core can hold the lead in the latter third of the game. While we can only attempt to predict which bullpen will be the most valuable in 2013, it is safe to say that the competition for the, most-likely, 2 playoff spots in the AL East should be fierce.

Who Get's The Big Fish?

Prince Fielder

Baseball fans rejoice. We've almost made of through the long, difficult, and trying winter with little to no live Baseball to watch. Free agency merely gives the most dedicated and starving Baseball fan a bit of respite, but it only satisfies us enough to bridge the gap of the offseason until Spring Training facilities open and Baseball is officially deemed "open for business". 4 days remain until pitchers and catcher's report to either Florida or Arizona, and another few weeks until their teammates join them. While most players have had their plane reservations booked for weeks, some players' destinations continue to remain unknown. Free agency doesn't stop just because Baseball fans, players, coaches, and executives can see the Promised Land from across the Jordan River. No, instead agents, front offices, and owners work diligently to find the last missing piece to the puzzle.

Recently the Oakland Athletics deal Chris Carter, Brad Peacock, and Max Stassi to the Astros in exchange for Jed Lowrie an a bullpen pitcher. So, not only does Free Agency continue up to the start of the season, but team's will always be looking to improve by exchange. While predicting a trade is virtually impossible without, and sometimes even with inside information, speculating on the possible destinations for the remaining free agents becomes more and more fascinating every minute we move closer and closer to the promised land that is Opening Day.

Michael Bourn:

Michael Bourn

Since the October, numerous pundits have predicted that Bourn would be the Prince Fielder of the 2013 offseason. Last year, Fielder, one of the top 3 free agents of 2012, remained unsigned until January 26th, when the Detroit Tigers and Dave Dombrowski moved their chips, $214 million worth to be exact, into the pot. The Tigers landed Fielder, which not only helped Miguel Cabrera become the first player to win the Triple Crown since 1967, but made Detroit a power house team. The Tigers reached the World Series, and while they lost, few Baseball people would bash that massive contract due to Fielder's predicted value, current value, and the huge push he gave the franchise as a whole.

Is Michael Bourn Prince Fielder? No, I think we can all categorically say the two are quite different. Fielder is a bull of a man with incredible power to all fields while Bourn is a small scrappy contact hitter with lightning fast speed. Power doesn't diminish into a player's 30's as quickly as speed does, making teams even more wary in the face of a long-term high price tag deal with Bourn. In addition, the market this offseason was stocked with talented outfielders making negotiations for a contract difficult, and causing teams to use prospect instead of cash to attain outfield help. The Nationals traded for Denard Span, the Phillies for Ben Revere, and the Braves for Justin Upton. So, where does that leave Michael Bourn? Bourn is a player completely built around his speed and ability to get on base. In addition he brings superb defense in the outfield, closing on balls with great speed, combined with a very good first step, solid leaping ability, and an above average arm.

	OBP	SB	SB %	DRS	UZR
2009	0.354	61	83.5%	11	9.9
2010	0.341	52	81.3%	30	19.4
2011	0.349	61	81.3%	-3	-6.4
2012	0.348	42	76.4%	24	22.4

As you can see from this chart, Bourn gets on base with regularity, consistently putting up numbers above the league average (.315 in 2012). Bourn recently turned 30 years old, generally a harbinger of an attrition of production, which accelerates if built on speed rather than power.

It's possible that Bourn could still attain the type of contract that he and mega agent Scott Boras wanted in November, something in the neighborhood of 5+ seasons and $100 million, that possibility dwindles every second we get closer to Spring Training. More reasonable figures being reported recently have put Bourn in a 3-year deal with an AAV of $15 million or so. Most sabermetricians and pundits would tell you that, for example, a contract of 3-years $46 million with a vesting option for a 4th year that would be worth $16 Million, and a buyout of $3 million would be reasonable to acquire Michael Bourn. So, in essence, the player, in this case Bourn, overvalued himself in a saturated market, and now that there is a definite time frame established, the player is adapting to the market in order to come to a conclusion. This is market economics, it's one reason of having no salary cap enhances Baseball's image as opposed to making the players look greedy and overpaid. Bourn turned down the Braves' qualifying offer in November, making him less appealing to teams that would be forced to lose a draft pick as part of acquiring the speedy outfielder. It also makes teams more likely to want to negotiate a multi-year deal with Bourn, so as to get more out of him, making up for the future of a lost 1st-round draft pick. So, while some reports have team's looking to sign Bourn to a 1-year deal, I don't see it as likely unless said team wouldn't be forced to give up a draft pick.

Team's that could still be fits for Bourn include the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles, and Seattle Mariners. The Mets have no legitimate outfielders currently on the roster. While the team has worked hard to build up depth in the infield and starting rotation, the outfield has been untended to, unless you count Jason Bay, but that attempt officially failed when the Mets dropped Bay from their roster. While Bourn fits a big need for the Mets, he would likely not boost them into a playoff spot, so spending a high AAV even for 2-3 seasons may not be worth it for Sandy Alderson and his bunch. There is still a slight possibility the Mets will be allowed to retain their first round pick even if they were to ink Bourn to a deal, but MLB has yet to rule on the situation. Most likely, the Mets would have to forfeit that pick, making them even less likely to go after Bourn.

 The Phillies have many more reasons to like Bourn. Ruben Amaro finds himself with a high payroll, older team, and 2 platoons at the corner outfield spot. He also sees a division that just got tougher, due to recent acquisitions made by the Nationals and Braves, and a team on the cusp of the playoffs in the Phillies. The Phillies already have a leadoff type hitter in Ben Revere, as well as an aging but still viable Jimmy Rollins, so, you might be asking yourself, why the Phillies would want another speedy player. Adding Bourn would give the Phillies the "2003 Juan Pierre/Luis Castillo" look at the top of their lineup, essentially providing the muscle in the lineup with more and more opportunities to hit with runners on base and in scoring position. In addition, Bourn's defense would make playing inept defenders like Delmon Young and Darin Ruf in the outfield. Bourn came up with the Phillies, knows the organization well and would be a valuable asset to the Phillies. The question all comes down to money. If Ruben Amaro is willing to pay a higher AAV in order to get Bourn to agree to a shorter deal, it would be worth signing him, giving up their first round pick, but if Bourn demands more than 3 years, the Phillies should continue to use restraint.

The Rangers lost Josh Hamilton this offseason to rival LA. Hamilton may not have played much longer in centerfield had he stayed in Texas, meaning that the team was always willing to go with the combination of Craig Gentry and Leonys Martin in centerfield. If Jon Daniels signed Bourn, he would most likely play the majority in center field in 2013, and even 2014, but moved to a corner spot not long after the All-Star break in 2014. Bourn doesn't have power, so he won't benefit from Arlington's home run tendencies, but the combination of Bourn, Elvis Andrus and, eventually Jurickson Profar in the 9-1-2 spots would be incredibly difficult to stop, and would neutralize ground ball innings eaters like the ones recently signed by the Angels. The Rangers have money to spend, and given the state of their farm system, losing a draft pick wouldn't cause too much strife. In the end here, it comes down to the price tag. If Bourn is willing to lessen some standards the Rangers could be on board, but otherwise I wouldn't bet on Daniels blinking first.

The Orioles have the ability to benefit greatly from an acquisition involving Michael Bourn. While the Orioles already have a talented young center fielder in Adam Jones, Bourn would buttress Baltimore's defensive outfield by playing in right, moving Nick Markakis to platoon with Nolan Reimold in left field. For a team many think will regress in 2013, adding Bourn could keep them in contention for longer, possibly long enough to return to the playoffs. Fangraphs recently released the Steamer projections for 2013. An outfield with Bourn, Jones, and a platoon of Markakis and Reimold is project to look like this:

	HR	SB	wOBA
Bourn	6	35	0.309
Jones	28	9	0.347
Markakis	17	4	0.351
Reimold	16	6	0.332
Total	67	54	0.335

While the platoon in left would cause both Markakis' and Reimold's numbers to decrease a little due to less playing time, the DH spot allows for manager Buck Showalter to keep them in the lineup even if they don't have a spot in the field. The combination of a full year in the majors for Manny Machado, the prospect of Dylan Bundy coming up to the big club mid-season, and the addition of Bourn to the outfield would be the perfect counter punch to the Rays' trade for Will Myers, and Red Sox flurry of signings, and the Blue Jays Miami buying extravaganza.

The Mariners are a fit for Bourn because they are without a good lineup, and Bourn might put some more fans butts in seats. GM Jack Zduriencik had made some questionable decisions of recent, but no one would blame him for trying to sign Bourn. Seattle can spend some money, and Bourn might provide the young Mariners hitters with a runner on base more often when they hit. Bourn might only consider a long-term deal with the Mariners since so much of their success is tied up in their core young players. The Mariners aren't winning anything in 2013 with or without Bourn, so signing him all comes down to pressure from ownership, and to a much lesser extent to look active and not portray an air of dejection. 

Kyle Lohse:

Kyle Lohse

Then there's Kyle Lohse. Lohse is the best starting pitcher left on the market, but unlike Bourn, many predicted Lohse would have trouble finding a team. For more on why teams might be wary to sign Lohse read Glenn DuPaul's editorial on the issue here. Lohse looks to regress heavily in 2013, is asking for a hefty sized AAV, and will cost the team that signs him a draft pick having turned down the Cardinals qualifying offer. He's a solid pitcher, with a solid track record, but he's already undergone serious arm surgery in his career, is in his 30's, and doesn't have a power arm. Lohse constitutes the definition of a player who is the "last piece" to a team. Raphael Soriano, recently signed by the Nats constituted he same. Both are expensive cars that a guy would never buy until he's older, rich, and already enjoying life. He's the "cherry on top", not the foundational ice cream. So, where could he land? 

According to multiple projections systems, Lohse's 2013 numbers should look in the neighborhood of these numbers: 

	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA	FIP
2013	194	5.67	2.04	0.91	3.85	3.86

While those numbers may not be worth $10 million AAV and the loss of a draft pick, to a playoff team hoping to put themselves in the preseason conversation of World Series possibility, Lohse could very well be worth it. Teams like that include the Rangers and Cardinals with the Pirates and Brewers also in the conversation. 

The Rangers are a team that many thought would be active this offseason, but have continued to lie in wait until they pounce. Still, Lohse could make sense for the Rangers. Signing Lohse would allow the team to trade prospect Martin Perez, a player many teams would be interested in acquiring. If the Rangers could use Perez to get an outfielder like Dexter Fowler, or with a better set of prospects, Carlos Gonzalez, the Rangers could move back into a better position in the AL West. Lohse might not fair incredibly well in Arlington, but half a team's games are played on the road, and Lohse would be the 4th starter, a veteran presence, but not an ace. 

The Cardinals recently found out that they have lost Chris Carpenter for the season, and he still may retire. The cardinals have the best farm system in the Majors, and have no need to fill Carp's spot with a free agent. Trevor Rosenthal, Joe Kelly, Shelby Miller, and Lance Lynn would compete for the 4th and 5th spots with Carpenter gone. In addition, Jaime Garcia may not be ready for Opening Day, so those four pitchers could compete for 3 Opening Day rotation slots. The Cardinals have a lot of internal and cheap options, but re-signing Lohse could work for them. Lohse liked playing in St. Louis, which most consider to be a desirable place to play. The Cardinals don't need him, but adding Lohse could better their odds of winning the NL Central. 

The Pirates don't need Kyle Lohse, but his addition could prove fruitful. The Pirates have been on the cusp of making the playoffs for the last 2 seasons. They have the talent to play like a playoff team for 3/4 of the season, but not all of it, causing the Buccos to be on the outside looking in in October. With Gerrit Cole expected to make his debut this season, and the possible addition of Lohse, the Pirates could put themselves squarely ahead of the Brewers and right in the wheelhouse of the Reds/Cardinals for 2013 and more likely 2014. The Pirates probably don't want to increase payroll, especially after recently adding Francisco Liriano and Jonathan Sanchez, but If Neal Huntington wanted to take a risk it might be worth it here. I wouldn't count on this happening, but it is good to see the Buccos in a position to possibly win something.

The Brewers recently lost Cory Hart, due to injury, for the first part of the 2013 season. They have almost the least amount of pitching depth in the starting rotation of any NL team, and they have had a quiet offseason. In addition, the team is in danger of falling into 4th in the Central this season, and that is without the awful Astros to make them look better. Lohse would provide them with someone to go behind Yovani Gallardo, but it would be a patch up job with potential issues all over the place. Doug Melvin isn't a GM to sign a guy just to sign him; the Brewers only go after Lohse if they make an ancillary move. This team needs their 1st round draft pick too much to make a serious contract to Kyle Lohse. 

Both Bourn and Lohse come with more risk attached to them than any other free agent, making GM's circumspect when evaluating them as possible acquisitions. Boras found Prince Fielder $200+ million on January 26th, but neither Bourn nor Lohse have the value that Prince Fielder did. Given their lesser status, I predict Bourn to sign within the next next 2 weeks at 3-4 years and a contract between $50-65 million. Lohse a few days after Bourn for 3 years and $24 million. Recently I've been having an inner conflict between my hear and my brain concerning free agent signings, so to appease both body parts I'll report both outcomes. My brain says Bourn goes to Texas while my heart says he fits best in Baltimore. As for Mr. Lohse, my brain says the Cardinals re-sign him, but my heart thinks he fits best in Pittsburgh. These are the two top players left on the market, they represent the scraps of Baseball we continue to cling to until very soon, Baseball officially returns, and all Baseball fans can emerge from their torpor. Opening Day is coming; we just have to have a little more patience. 

Morse Code

Adam LaRoche

Yesterday, the Washington Nationals re-signed free agent first baseman Adam LaRoche to a 2-year $24 million contract with $22 million slated to be salary for the first two years and the other $2 million as a buyout in the third year if LaRoche's mutual option doesn't vest. Immediately, this move secures the Nationals a veteran first baseman who has performed well lately in D.C. and showed images of brilliance at pitcher friendly Turner Field in Atlanta. LaRoche, who recently turned 33 years old, brings a multi-faceted game to the Nationals, as well as a left-handed bat in the middle of the order to complement righties Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, and Ian Desmond. Some may poo poo LaRoche's age, but this contract is short term, 2 years, and LaRoche plays a relatively effortless defensive position that has allowed older players with power to continue to produce impressive stats.

Here's a look at LaRoche's 2012 season, which is essentially the sole reason for getting ~ $12 million AAV, more than the qualifying offer the Nationals offered LaRoche a few months ago.

	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	HR
2012	0.271	0.343	0.510	0.361	127	33

LaRoche's overall hitting production derived from his power numbers. The 33 home runs, a spike, led to a slugging percentage over .500, placing him 11th in the Major Leagues. No one denies that LaRoche has always been able to hit, but what has contributed to his inconsistent production? LaRoche's approach to the plate may have been altered slightly during the 2012 season in comparison to those that came before. LaRoche continued to swing more often than the average hitter, make contact less often than the average hitter, but increased his swing percentage on pitches in the strike zone while laying off pitches out of the zone. This alteration shows a better eye at the plate. This was a hitter looking to swing more at strikes, but more importantly crushing the ball when getting pitches in the strike zone.

While LaRoche's offensive game has been up and down throughout his career, Adam's defensive prowess has not wavered. While it took a year or so for his defensive abilities to become apparent, since then, LaRoche has proven he will flash the leather and corral every semi-arrant thrown at the far right side of the infield. Here are his numbers using more advanced metrics:

Year	UZR	DRS	FRAA
2004	-0.6	2	-7.4
2005	-18.2	-13	-2.5
2006	-4.6	-11	5.5
2007	7.6	2	10.3
2008	-6.5	-5	0.4
2009	0.2	-2	6.3
2010	4.8	6	9.7
2011	13.4	5	3
2012	5.7	8	10.8

Range at 1st base can often show itself more once a player has gained more experience, since speed is less necessary at 1st base than proper form and instinct. Without a doubt, LaRoche's defense ranks far higher than the Nationals other possibility at the position, Michael Morse. Morse's career -2.7 UZR and -5 DRS in a little over 800 career innings at 1st base pales in comparison to LaRoches consistent success at the position. LaRoche provides leadership both in the young infield as well as on a young team sporting Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Danny Espinosa, and Ian Desmond. In addition, the Nats third baseman Ryan Zimmerman has had issue throwing from third base, which puts a premium on having a skilled defensive first baseman. To cap off the reasons why the Nationals will most likely enjoy the services of LaRoche for the next two seasons without remorse is his projections for 2013. PECOTA projects him to put up about 1.3 WARP next season with 19 home runs and a .321 OBP. Bill James' projections have LaRoche putting up a slash line of .256/.334/.471. While this production doesn't stack up to Adam's 2012, LaRoche is a candidate for some regression, but the damage doesn't seem to be that bad.

Michael Morse

So, since, LaRoche will occupy 1st base for the Nats for at least the next 2 seasons, the club is heavy by one player, Michael Morse. Immediately after the news came down concerning the LaRoche's new deal with Washington, the rumors began to fly concerning a possible trade involving Michael Morse. Morse is a righty with experience in the outfield and at 1st base, who has recently figured it out at the plate. Morse has become more than a big guy crushing pitches, hitting for a solid batting average, above-average on base percentage, and doing it against both righties and southpaws. Over the last three seasons, Morse has figured it out at the plate, dealing with some injury problems in 2012, while LaRoche had a big year. 

Year	Games Played	fWAR	rWAR	WARP
2010	98	1.1	1.2	1.5
2011	146	3.3	3.1	3.4
2012	102	0.3	0.6	0.1

Morse doesn't have the resume of consistency that LaRoche brings to the tabel. In addition, Morse is under control for only one season, and bats from the right side of the plate as opposed to the left. Morse provides less defense prowess despite the position he plays. Despite the appeal of LaRoche, Morse provides solid plate discipline, constant doubles power to both gaps, and a hitter with very few deficiencies at the plate. He isn't abysmal in the field, making him a trade candidate to both AL and NL teames. The main issue with Morse is his contract. A team that trades for him might decide to invest in the slugger by signing him to an extension, while some may offer less to the Nats knowing full well they will only have Morse in the lineup for 1 season. Teams that have been linked to the Morse and the Nats include the Yankees, Orioles, Mariners, Rangers, Phillies, and Rays. 

Yankees: According to an article in the New York Daily News, the Yankees will send rookie catcher Austin Romine, who missed most of last season due to injury, back to triple A, and that the team is focused on finding a right-handed hitting outfielder. Given that the Yankees have already resigned Ichiro, and have both Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson returning, the team isn't looking to trade for a player like Michael Morse who is better suited for first base and hits well against both righty and lefty pitchers. The Yankees may see how little they can trade in exchange for Morse, but Brian Cashman would rather sign Scott Hairston but remain in on the Morse talks to drive the price up in case the Orioles/Rays remain serious contenders for Morse's services.

Orioles: The Orioles farm system is currently top heavy, and I doubt Dan Duquette is willing to trade any of his top prospects for one year of Michael Morse. If the Orioles forgo a trade for Morse, their most likely option at either DH or 1st base will be lefty Chris Davis. Davis came on strong following the trade deadline in 2012, ending the season with more than 30 home runs, while playing in the outfield and at 1st base.

	True Avg	HR	wOBA	wRC+
Morse	0.294	9	0.363	127
Davis	0.267	13	0.322	100

Take a look at this comparison between Morse and Davis. All numbers are either their career percentage or in the case of home runs, home runs per season. Morse has less power but may be the better overall hitter, while Davis is a known commodity that is under team control for fairly cheap until 2016. The Orioles plan to use Nolan Reimold in left field, allowing Chris Davis to occupy 1st base and fill in at DH along with Matt Weiters. While Morse might help the Orioles, he isn't a huge upgrade, the Orioles are a regional rival of the Nats, and the few players they would be willing to trade could be used elsewhere. If the O's were to deal for Morse the trade might look like this:
Orioles trade Brian Matusz and minor leaguer Branden Kline for Michael Morse. It is more likely the Orioles continue to shop J.J. Hardy for a 3rd baseman in an effort to move Many Machado to shortstop.

Mariners: The Mariners recently made a move to acquire Kendrys Morales, bolstering their abundance of prospective designated hitters. Morse originally played in the Seattle organization, and would most likely take over at 1st base for the awful Justin Smoak. The Mariners would rather find a long-term option at 1st base instead of a one-year rental, but if they could work out an extension with Morse, Jack Zduriencik could be persuaded to deal for Morse. If the Mariners make this move, you might see more pieces than just Morse moving as the Mariners might also try to clear space a position in which they have a prospect ready to make the leap to the big show. For example, the Mariners could look to trade shortstop Brendan Ryan and pitcher James Paxton to the Nationals in return for Michael Morse and Ian Desmond. The Nationals would replace the hole left when they treaded prospect Alex Meyer to the Twins with an almost MLB ready player in Paxton while upgrading defensively at shortstop. The Mariners would have a shortstop 3 years of arbitration with Desmond, which consequently makes prospect Nick Franklin expendable. Since the market for young MLB ready shortstops has been high (see the Didi Gregorius deal). More likely, the Mariners refrain from a trade altogether.

Rangers: The Rangers just signed a designated hitter in Lance Berkman, but would love to add a right-handed first baseman to platoon with Mitch Moreland. Moreland has been decent, but as a lefty, he performs much better against righties than versus lefties. His career true average against southpaws is a low .232, but that number goes up to .274 against righties. In addition, Moreland has thus far been inconsistent in his defense at 1st with 2 subpar seasons and a rebound year in 2012. Platooning Moreland and Morse could be valuable for a team probably not looking to resign Morse, but hoping to get the most out of him in 2013. If the Rangers make a deal for Morse, don't look for them to send back a well-known prospect. Two names that could be apart of negotiations could be pitchers Miguel De Los Santos, and Codie Buckle.

Phillies: Recently we've heard some competing reports coming from Philadelphia. Ken Rosenthal has noted that the Phillies are still looking for outfield help, especially of the right-handed persuasion, while others have noted that Ruben Amaro is done dealing. My guess is that Amaro will look to upgrade only if the right deal falls into his lap. Otherwise he'll go with platoons in the corner outfield spots including Domonic Brown, John Mayberry Jr., Darrin Ruf, and Laynce Nix. I would say that there is a popsicles chance in hell that these two teams consummate a deal. The Nationals are the reigning NL East champs with the Phillies claiming the top spot in the division the 5 seasons prior to 2012. Due to these teams' status as divisional rivals, there is no way Michael Morse ends up in a Phillies uniform.

Rays: If the Rays trade for Morse it'll for sure only for the 2013 season. 2014 marks Morses' first chance in the free agent pool, and the Rays definitely don't have the money to sign Morse. Given that his potential service time in Tampa would be for only 1 season, don't look for the Rays to give up anything special in return. My guess is the Nationals will ask for a possibly oft-injured and young high ceiling prospect in an attempt to replenish their system with a less likely to make it Alex Meyer. The Rays still don't have a DH, so if Tampa trades for Morse, he'll most likely spend his time hitting but not fielding. So, what could the Rays move in exchange for Morse? Maybe a pitcher like Jeff Ames. Ames was drafted a few times, and eventually fell from junior college to the Rays in a supplemental first round. He's got a mid-90's fastball making him a possible late-innings reliever in the majors or possible a back of the rotation starter if he develops some secondary pitches. He'll be 22 in 2013, but if his role becomes cemented to the bullpen, he could move through the minors quickly.

Mets: I didn't mention the Mets before, but they could be a sleeper team for Morse's services. The Mets need outfield help, both for now and the future. Morse looks to only help the Mets out now given his contract, but if he performs well in NYC in 2013, the Mets could look to either extend him or trade him at the deadline. While the Mets have the same issue as the Phillies, this potential intra-divisional trade is more likely than one between the Nats and the Phillies. The Mets are not likely to be in contention next season, so a trade remains a possibility. The Mets could look to deal a pitching prospect like Jacob DeGrom who throws hard and is coming off of an injury-plagued season along with a position player like Lukas Duda. Duda is a power-hitting lefty who could be the Nats new left-handed option off the bench for Davey Johnson. The Mets would only go in on this type of deal if they were sure they could either find value for Morse at the trade deadline, or could extend Morse on a deal in the neighborhood of 3 years and $33 million. Either way I don't see this deal happening, but don't count the Mets out of it.

Adam LaRoche was the last part to the Nationals puzzle. he solidifies a position that was up in the air, and does so for a finite amount of time. Although the Nationals loved Michael Morse, he becomes expendable. Morse wants to play in order to improve his dollar value heading into 2014 free agency, so sticking it out on the National's bench would definitely make him unhappy. My guess is that he will take the first ticket out of town, with no particular penchant for one city over another. Due to Morse's recent renaissance, recent injury, defensive liabilities, and the brevity with which his free agency comes, he probably won't fetch that much in a trade. If the Nationals aren't looking for much, a deal could be made soon, but if the Nats want something more significant, it either implies a multi-player trade possibility to the chance that Morse remains for the start of 2013. If I had to guess, I'd say Morse gets traded, possibly in a three-way deal involving the Padres or a simple 2-team deal involving either the Yankees or Rangers. With LaRoche gone, Michael Bourn headlines the remaining position players on the free agent market, but look for Scott Boras to hold off until he finds what he wants, similar to Prince Fielder's situation last offseason.  

Non-Tenders

Recently I expounded on the idea of the qualifying offer. Baseball's offseason has so many intricacies, terms, and ideas that even an adept Baseball fan may not understand. The qualifying offer being one such term, and non-tendering being another. Recently teams made public the names of players that would be non-tendered, thus ending the relationship between the given team and those players, effectively making those players free agents.

Tendering a contract literally means offering a contract. So, a team that offers Zack Greinke, a free agent this offseason, a contract could be tendering him a contract. Players who have played out the first few years of their original contract (the one the player signed when drafted) become arbitration eligible. Essentially, in order to attempt to properly compensate young players who find themselves still years away from free agency, MLB put in a system in which the player and team present information to a third party who decided what that player's contract will be for the next season. It is done on a season-to-season basis, and some players can go through 4 years worth of arbitration before becoming eligible for free agency. Any player who is arbitration eligible must be tendered a contract by a specific date, which happens to be December 2nd this year. Any arbitration eligible player not tendered a contract becomes a free agent. Arbitration can be an expensive process for teams. Especially when a previously productive player is coming off of a less productive season because that player will most likely make more money in arbitration, due to his past performance. A team might want to retain that player, but not at the expected arbitration salary, so the team non-tenders the player, allowing him to become a free agent, then offer him a separate deal for less money.

The process can be complicated, especially given the fact that the arbitration process has many flaws incorporated into it. Since it is complicated, here is a simple rule. Teams non-tender players when the team would rather risk losing the player to another team than possibly pay them an exorbitant amount of money through arbitration.

Non-tendering a player can prove fruitful or fruitless. Sometimes the player in question will sign with another club and perform very well whereas other times non-tendering a player can be the best way to dump a declining or injury-prone player. Some names that came out on the non-tender list this offseason include John Lannan, Mark Reynolds, Ian Stewart, Jair Jurrjens, Jeff Karstans, and Brian Wilson. The common themes amongst these players are injuries, Karstans, Wilson, and Jurrjens, and declines in productivity, Lannan and Sterwart. If you want a more comprehensive list, and way to track players who have been non-tendered, tendered, et cetera, check out MLBtraderumors page here.

John Lannan

Where might some of these non-tendered players wind up? Between 2008-2011 John Lannan averaged 1.3 fwins (stands for fWAR), which is worth between $6-7 million on this years free agent market. Lannan was set to make about $5.5 million dollars in arbitration. The Nationals don't need Lannan in their rotation, and would rather use that money to fill a void elsewhere on the team. Between 08' and 11', Lannan was incredibly consistent, putting up FIPs between 4.20 and 4.80, BB % around 8%, and most importantly the 13th best ground ball percentage in the league. Lannan strikes out very few hitters, but makes up for his lack of swing-and-miss ability with pitches that cause lots of ground balls. Lannan throws four pitchers, a fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup. According to pitch f/x data, his changeup and curveball are solid to above average pitches, causing the ground balls, while Lannan's fastball and slider leave something to be desired. Combine Lannan with a good infield defense, and he could be worth anywhere from 1 win to 3 wins. Any team hoping to find a more suitable fifth starter should take a serious look at John Lannan. The Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies, and San Diego Padres could all be solid destinations for Lannan. Toronto has been rumored to be looking for an upgrade for J.A. Happ, while the Phillies might want a more experienced pitcher than Tyler Cloyd, and the Padres could turn Lannan into a great trade piece at the trade deadline.

Brian Wilson, known as "The Beard", put up a few productive years out of the San Francisco bullpen. With Sergio Romo taking his spot in the back end of the Giants bullpen, combined with Wilson's recent Tommy John surgery made Wilson an obvious non-tender candidate. Wilson is very valuable, but not in the typical way. Any team with money that is in need of a veteran cog in the bullpen could take a chance on Wilson, given his low cost, and Wilson's desire to prove himself. A team that might not be in contention next season could look to sign Wilson in order to flip him for prospects at the trade deadline in July. According to PECOTA, Wilson could be worth one WARP per season for the next three years. Any team that can sign Wilson to a one-year deal worth no more than $6 million could end up with a solid bargain. Look for the big clubs like Boston, Baltimore, Los Angeles (both LA teams), and Detroit to take a chance on Wilson.

Mark Reynolds

Finally, there's Mark Reynolds. Reynolds hit some big home runs for the Orioles last season, but with arbitration money in the realm of $10 million or more coming to him, the Orioles wisely non-tendered Reynolds. The issue with Reynolds isn't his incredibly high strikeout totals, but finding him a place to play. Reynolds rarely plays good defense at third base, his original position, and is below average at first base. Obviously, the American League offers an alternative to this, the designated hitter, but there are only 15 DH spots in the majors. The most logical spot would be Houston, a team moving from the NL to the AL, and thus in need of a designated hitter. On the other hand, it isn't difficult to find a hitter with pop who can't play defense, so instead of spending money on Reynolds, the obvious solution is to put a prospect in the DH role who costs far less money. Reynolds might be a possibility for the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays need a first baseman, and are not shy to put a home run hitter who strikes out often in that spot. Also, the Rays could DH Reynolds to take away from him negatively affecting their infield defense. Some team will take a chance on Reynolds, his power is undeniable, but whichever team does, would never have gotten that chance had the non-tender rule not been in place.

Now that you have a full understanding of non-tendering, when this time comes about next season you might be able to point to specific players who make good non-tender candidates and other that don't. Remember, oftentimes the most important pieces to a 25-man roster can come from the most remote of places, like the jungle of non-tendered players. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilsobr01.shtml