Call to The Pen

Last season, the Orioles shocked the Baseball world by turning the tables on the usual suspects in the AL East by winning 93 games, nabbing second place in the AL East, and one of the two wild card spots. The O's made the playoffs in 2013, making their way back to the post season for the first time in 1997. After making quick work of the Texas Rangers in the wild card play-in game, the Orioles ran into the Bronx Bombers in the ALDS. The Yankees outlasted the O's, beating them in a decisive game 5 to move on to the League Championship Series.

Since then, the AL East has undergone a make over. The Red Sox ridded themselves of big contracts like Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, as well as distractions like Josh Beckett. The Sox have since replaced that trio with a group of veterans like Shane Victorino, David Ross, Ryan Dempster, Jonny Gomes, Mike Napoli, and Stephen Drew. General Manager Ben Cherington prudently signed no players tied to draft pick compensation, and predominantly went after players considered "sure things" as opposed to big names and thus big risks.

Across the border, Blue Jays made the deal of the offseason, acquiring Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, Josh Johnson, and Mark Buehrle from the Miami Marlins in exchange for a bus load of prospects. After  years of prospect cultivation and development, the Blue Jays decided to use some young talent as currency in order to make a run at the playoffs. The Jays added the cherry on top of the sundae by making a second deal, this one for the reigning NL Cy Young award winner, knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. With this infusion of talent and experience, especially in the rotation, the Blue Jays are prime to make the playoffs for the first time since 1993.

The Rays, that scrappy young club from St. Petersburg, continued to rake in the young, talented, cheap, and team controlled players by trading veteran pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis to Kansas City. In Return the Rays received stud prospect Wil Myers along with pitcher Jake Odorizzi. While this deal didn't compare in size or impact to the dealings of the Blue Jays, the Rays secured one of the top MLB-ready talents in the minors without trading AL Cy Young award winner David Price, who's expensive arbitration years just kicked in. While this move might set the Rays back at first, with prospects like Chris Archer and youngsters like Jeremy Hellickson and Alex Cobb vying for places in the Rays rotation, Tampa looks to remain relevant in 2013 as well as the foreseeable future.

The Yankees offseason involved signing a number of older veteran players to short-term contracts, plugging holes, in order to stay under the luxury tax, but also not fall into the cellar of the AL East. The Yanks brought back Ichiro, Andy Pettitte, and Hiroki Kuroda, while adding veteran Kevin Youkilis to man the hot corner at 3rd. While these moves seem a bit desperate on the surface, the Yankees made shrewd moves that should keep them germane in the AL East in 2013. The only hole in the Yankees roster seems to be behind the plate, but the team has all spring training to figure out their backstop issues.

So, with every team in the AL East realistically eyeing the playoffs for the first time in years, what aspect might separate one from the rest of the pack? Last season, the Orioles used their brilliant bullpen to push them just past the Rays into the playoffs, and it seems as though the relief core may be the key to the east once again. In 2013, the O's bullpen put up a combined 6.4 fWAR, which ranked 3rd in the American League behind only the Royals and the Rays. Orioles relievers made quick work of the final innings of a game not by utilizing the strikeout, but instead by inducing more ground balls than any other AL East pen. In addition, the O's gave out few free passes, ranking second, behind only the Rangers, in BB/9.

Team	K/9	BB/9	LOB%	GB%	FIP	WAR
Rays	9.33	2.88	77.10%	46.40%	3.19	6.7
Orioles	7.49	2.87	78.50%	49.10%	3.68	6.4
Yankees	8.92	3.2	77.60%	44.90%	3.62	5.5
Red Sox	8.31	3.38	74.80%	45.10%	3.91	4.6
Blue Jays	8.58	3.51	74.10%	43.10%	4.21	2.5

The Orioles didn't have the best offense, nor stellar starting pitching, but Buck Showalter's bullpen kept the team in every game, making the Orioles a deadly foe in close games. Unfortunately for Baltimore, their incredible winning percentage in 1-run games and extra inning games came halted in the ALDS in which 4 out of the 5 games played ended with a margin of victory of just 1 run. Given that the Orioles bullpen became their key to success, and the growing parity in the AL East, what have Baltimore's rivals been up to?

David Robertson

The Yankees lost a key part of their 2012 bullpen, righty Raphael Soriano, but they were able to parlay his success into an additional draft pick by offering him a qualifying offer that he didn't accept. Instead, once Soriano signed with his new club, the Washington Nationals, the Yankees picked up a compensatory pick, which turns out to be the 32nd pick in this summers upcoming draft. The Yankees willingly parted with their 2012 bullpen anchor given Soriano's desire for a lucrative multi-year contract, the ability to obtain a draft pick in return, and most importantly knowing that future Hall-Of-Famer Mariano Rivera would return in 2013 to fill the hole left by Soriano. In addition to Rivera's return, the Yankees still have Nate Robertson, the strikeout machine, who has posted a 12.20 K/9, 2.70 FIP, and accumulated 6.0 fWAR since 2009. Between Robertson, Rivera, and a mix of Boone Logan from the left side, the Yankees bullpen should hold up late in games.

Roberto Hernandez

The Rays made some minor changes to their bullpen, but given their recent success, these changes should prove fruitful. Tampa traded ground ball specialist Burk Badenhop to the Brewers, replacing him with Roberto Hernandez, the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona. Carmona, like Badenhop throws from the right side, and more importantly throws a hard sinker that induces a great number of ground balls. Since becoming a regular in the Majors, Hernandez has posted a ridiculous 58.4 ground ball percentage, good enough for a 2.26 GB/FB ratio. Hernandez did most of his previous work from the starting rotation, and while the Rays may ask him to spot start in a pinch, his role will be out of the bullpen where Joe Madden expects him to induce ground ball after ground ball. The Rays also resigned Joel Peralta while retaining the services of All-Star closer Fernando Rodney by picking up the 2013 team option attached to his contract. Add those names to lefty fire baller Jake McGee, and the Rays bullpen looks ready to buttress their young starting pitching for another season.

Koji Uehara

The Red Sox made headlines by signing lots of free agents this offseason, including a few in the bullpen. The Sox signed southpaw, and well traveled, Craig Breslow, now onto his 7th MLB franchise, to a conservative 2-year $6.25 million contract, added former Ranger's righty Koji Uehara for 1-year and $4.25 million, and traded for former Pirates closer Joel Hanrahan. In addition, the Sox will benefit from the return of Andrew Bailey from an injury marred 2012 campaign, especially since Bailey's 2013 will determine how much money the reliever will get paid in his 3rd year of arbitration. Oliver, a projection system created by Hardball Times' Brian Cartwright, projects good numbers from the Red Sox bullpen, especially from Uehara, who I think represents the keystone to success for this relief core. Also, don't forget about Daniel Bard, who many at spring training say is progressing nicely and might fit into the Sox pen around after All-Star break if the team moves a pitcher a the trade deadline.

Name	ERA	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Koji Uehara	2.99	10.15	1.39	2.74
Joel Hanrahan	3.64	9.90	3.93	3.08
Andrew Bailey	3.99	8.25	3.20	3.12
Junichi Tazawa	3.77	8.67	2.89	3.28
Craig Breslow	3.75	7.93	3.32	3.51
Alfredo Aceves	4.35	7.10	3.44	3.86
Andrew Miller	5.17	8.58	6.34	4.10
Total	3.95	8.65	3.50	3.38

The 2013 Blue Jays bullpen looks eerily similar to the 2012 pen that ranked middle of the road in some statistical categories and poor in others amongst AL teams. They coaxed lefty Darren Oliver to return, and remain hopeful that Sergio Santos can overcome shoulder surgery to return to his level of nastiness by June. The Jays put a lot of faith in their starting rotation, stocking it with work horses like R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle, as well as possible ace Josh Johnson. These three starters should lessen the load on the Blue Jays pen, but given Johnson's injury history and Buehrle's age, the Jays may need to call on their relievers in 2013 more often than they expect.

Darren O'Day

How about those Orioles? Did the organization with the golden bullpen do anything to improve on 2012? Instead of adding or subtracting, the Orioles did their best to keep their 2012 bullpen in tact for 2013. The O's avoided arbitration with Jim Johnson and Darren O'Day, two of the most utilized and important parts of their 2012 relief prosperity. The team returns Luis Ayala, Tommy Hunter, lefty Brian Matusz, and Troy Patton, all of whom they hope will continue to perform at a high level. While the O's may not have "upgraded" their bullpen, the team expects to add one if not two highly touted starting pitching prospects in mid-season, Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman. With the addition of these young stars to an already solid starting pitching staff, the Orioles have no need to tinker with a bullpen that already promises to keep men off base, and to induce lots of double plays late in games.

The AL East is a free for all in 2013, with no one team looking like the current favorite. Given that fact, each team has done their best to ensure that their bullpen won't be the one to falter in 2013. Most of a team's success derives from hitting and starting pitching, but with 5 teams so close to each other in talent and projected wins, it may come down to which relief core can hold the lead in the latter third of the game. While we can only attempt to predict which bullpen will be the most valuable in 2013, it is safe to say that the competition for the, most-likely, 2 playoff spots in the AL East should be fierce.

The Perfect Trade That Won't Happen

It's been a busy week on the hot stove of MLB's offseason. It began with the Blue Jays signing Maicer Izturis to a three-year deal, which was followed by the Marlins/Blue Jays mega-trade resulting in Toronto acquiring shortstop Jose Reyes, pitcher Josh Johnson, and pitcher Mark Buehrle. Next came the Tigers signing Torii Hunter to a two-year contract, and the Braves repairing their platoon at catcher by signing Gerald Laid to a 2-year contract. Following all of that came the Blue Jays signing of PED ridden Melky Cabrera to a 2-year contract.

What can we gather from all of these transactions? The Blue Jays have switched lanes from the middle, to the fast-paced left lane. The Blue Jays have positioned themselves to be the new player in the AL East, joining the Yankees, Rays, Orioles, and Red Sox. Wait, isn't that every team in the AL East? Yep, you got that right. The Blue Jays haven't made the playoffs since 1993, the longest drought in the AL East. More importantly, the team has finished fourth out of fifth in the division in each of the last 5 seasons. The organization thought they had it figured out with J.P. Ricciardi at the helm, but it fell apart, and the team moved on to Alex Anthopoulos. Anthopoulos changed the way the team did business. He built up their international scouting department, changed the way they drafted players, traded off top MLB players for heaps of young prospects, and lowered the team's payroll by 25%.

Last season the Jays had some bright spots and some sore ones. They saw their entire starting pitching staff collapse, including the usually solid Rickey Romero. Hitting wise, things were somewhat more improved. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion showed great power strokes, along with solid contributions from Rajai Davis and rookie Brett Lawrie. Anthopoulos, and his entire front office, knew they had specific areas in which they needed to improve in order to compete with the likes of the Yankees and the Rays. Signing Izturis, trading for Reyes, Johnson, and Buehrle, and signing Melky Cabrera fill a lot of holes, but I don't think the Blue Jays are done. According to sources like Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, the Jays want to continue to upgrade their starting pitching. If reports like Rosenthal's are correct, and I think they are, the Jays need to look either at the free agent market or look to make another trade to acquire help in their starting rotation.

Free agent wise, the Jays have some options. Even though their payroll recently rose, the team can afford to take on more money because they have one of the richest owners in Baseball, and are making the push to win now. The best options out there are Anibal Sanchez, Edwin Jackson, Kyle Lohse, and Dan Haren. Both have issues. Sanchez is looking for $100 million deal, and although his stats have been consistently good, I'm not sure he's worth that much money. Jackson is looking to return to the Nationals, but if the Blue Jays are willing to give the nomadic Jackson a multi-year deal, it might entice him to sign with the team to the north. Lohse might fit in Toronto, but, given the market for pitching, his asking price is inflated, and the Blue Jays may be spending money right now, but since AA became the GM, they spend money judiciously, not superfluously. The most interesting free agent possibility is Haren, but my guess is the Blue Jays want more of a "sure thing" than Haren, but I wouldn't count this out as a possibility.

If not free agency, then why not a trade? The Blue Jays aren't averse to making trades, evidenced by their recent acquisition of almost the entire Marlins 2012 starting lineup. I searched through teams that are in need of something the Blue Jays are willing to trade. Toronto has a stockpile of catchers. J.P. Arencibia, John Buck, and Travis D'arnaud are all trade possibilities, but the issue is finding a team in need of a catcher. The one team that desperately needs an upgrade behind the plate is the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have an abundance of young talented pitching, which is exactly what the Blue Jays are looking for. Here's the problem, this trade will never happen.

Since Andrew Friedman, the Rays General Manager, became the leader of Tampa Bay's front office in 2006, the Rays have only made 10 trades. That's only a little more than 1 trade per season. This lack of trading is due to the fact that the Rays have built their team from their farm system, and that they cannot afford to take on contracts negotiated elsewhere. Still, the reason the Rays and Jays won't make a deal that would so obviously benefit both squads has nothing to do with the Rays financial woes. The reason is that both play in the same division. Interdivisional trades are rare because no team wants to possibly help a team vying for the same spot in the postseason. This becomes magnified in the AL East because even if both wild card spots were to come from the AL East, 2 teams still wouldn't get in.

Just for the fun of it, let's look at what a trade between the Jays and Rays would look like. The Rays current backstop is Jose Molina, brother of Bengie and Yadier. The Rays owe him $1.5 million for 2013, after which he is set to become a free agent. Molina has never been able to combine hitting success with more than 100 games played in a season, but has proven his worth in gold behind the plate. Baseball Prospectus' Ben Lindbergh wrote about how many runs Molina has possibly saved with his play behind the plate. In the end, the Jays would love to platoon a better hitting catcher with Molina, and more importantly, find a catcher for the future, one that hits well and fields well.

Despite trading away top prospects like Adieny Hechavarria and Jake Marisnick to the Marlins, the Jays still have lots of young talent. Last year, J.P. Arencibia and former Jay Jeff Mathis platooned to combine for 2.1 fWAR for Toronto. Neither was a hitting wizard, but Arencibia provided some power hitting 18 home runs, while Mathis showed replacement level hitting stats. Mathis went to Miami in the aforementioned mega-deal, but the Blue Jays acquired former Marlins catcher John Buck. Buck put up a 1.2 fWAR last season providing his value through his ability to walk, and some solid defense. The Rays don't need a defensively minded catcher, so the obvious choice here has to be Arencibia. He hits for power at a young age, and if he can cut down on his strikeouts, might prove to be a solid all-around hitter in the future. On the other hand, the Rays are not going to trade a pitcher like Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, or Jeff Niemann for J.P. Arencibia. The Rays are all about arbitrage, and an Arencibia for Hellickson deal would be a net loss for the Rays.

Travis D'arnaud

So, what's the solution? The answer is Travis D'arnaud. D'arnaud is a soon-to-be 24 year old stud catcher who hasn't played a game in the Major Leagues. The Blue Jays acquired D'arnaud from the Philadelphia Phillies in the deal that send Roy Halladay to Philly. He has matured as a hitter with the ability to hit for power as well as for average. Last year, D'arnaud hit incredibly well in the hot hitting Pacific Coast League, sporting a 147 wRC+, .262 ISO, .415 wOBA, and improved sub 20% strikeout percentage. Behind the plate, D'Arnaud has shown great athleticism combined with a strong arm. He throws runners out well, and if he improves his footwork a bit, he could become quite an adept defender. The overall message is this: Travis D'arnaud would be a perfect fit for the Rays, as their catcher of the future.

A trade of Jeremy Hellickson for D'arnaud would work well for both sides. Hellickson is under contract for cheap in 2013. He'll be arbitration eligible for the first time in 2014, making him most likely affordable for the next 4 seasons. The Blue Jays could also make him a contract extension offer that would cover his arbitration years. Due to D'arnaud's significant upside the Blue Jays would want to lock up any pitcher they received for their top catching prospect. The Rays would lose a proven young pitcher, but they have a number of young pitchers, some proven, some unproven. The Rays would have a young catcher who could start 75 games for them next season, learn from Jose Molina, and get used to MLB pitching. If he shows sparks of greatness the team could perform their favorite magic trick; the one where the Rays lock up a great young player for cheap early in their career (See Evan Longoria and Matt Moore's contracts for more information).

Another possible trade would be Travis D'arnaud and Rajai Davis for Matt Moore. Moore already has a very team friendly contract, and has shown his talent, as well as his ability to improve on the go. Because Moore has a higher upside, and has a very team friendly contract, the Rays might want a little more from the Jays in exchange for Moore. Rajai Davis is owed $2.5 million next season, a very reasonable price tag, even for the Rays, and he projects to steal 40+ bases next season while playing above average defense (according to Baseball Prospectus' projections for 2013). He could assist the Rays in the outfield, especially with the loss of B.J. Upton to free agency, and as a proven MLB player, he would better justify trading Matt Moore for a prospect who hasn't caught one inning in the majors.

More than personel fits, this is a trade between two teams that need to make acquisitions like these in order to compete. Neither team plays in a huge market, and thus cannot attract top tier free agents. This means that trades are great ways to acquire talent. So, let's see what the Blue Jays rotation would look like was the team to deal D'arnaud for a Ray pitcher.

Rays Lefty Matt Moore

Spot	Name	Lefty/Righty
1	Josh Johnson	RHP
2	Mark Buehrle	LHP
3	Brandon Morrow	RHP
4	Rickey Romero	LHP
5	Jeremy Hellickson	RHP
Spot	Name	Lefty/Righty
1	Josh Johnson	RHP
2	Mark Buehrle	LHP
3	Brandon Morrow	RHP
4	Rickey Romero	LHP
5	Matt Moore	LHP

Both of those rotations are formidable, even in the AL East.

A deal between the Rays and Blue Jays would help both teams, solidifying the Jays starting rotation, and giving the Rays a catcher of the future. Oh, but just in case you forgot, it'll never happen. Neither team wants to help the other, even if it means getting exactly what they want. Instead, the Jays will probably sign a free agent pitcher like Dan Haren, and the Rays will look to pursue players like Justin Upton or Josh Willingham. It's too bad, but it is reality.