Call to The Pen

Last season, the Orioles shocked the Baseball world by turning the tables on the usual suspects in the AL East by winning 93 games, nabbing second place in the AL East, and one of the two wild card spots. The O's made the playoffs in 2013, making their way back to the post season for the first time in 1997. After making quick work of the Texas Rangers in the wild card play-in game, the Orioles ran into the Bronx Bombers in the ALDS. The Yankees outlasted the O's, beating them in a decisive game 5 to move on to the League Championship Series.

Since then, the AL East has undergone a make over. The Red Sox ridded themselves of big contracts like Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, as well as distractions like Josh Beckett. The Sox have since replaced that trio with a group of veterans like Shane Victorino, David Ross, Ryan Dempster, Jonny Gomes, Mike Napoli, and Stephen Drew. General Manager Ben Cherington prudently signed no players tied to draft pick compensation, and predominantly went after players considered "sure things" as opposed to big names and thus big risks.

Across the border, Blue Jays made the deal of the offseason, acquiring Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, Josh Johnson, and Mark Buehrle from the Miami Marlins in exchange for a bus load of prospects. After  years of prospect cultivation and development, the Blue Jays decided to use some young talent as currency in order to make a run at the playoffs. The Jays added the cherry on top of the sundae by making a second deal, this one for the reigning NL Cy Young award winner, knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. With this infusion of talent and experience, especially in the rotation, the Blue Jays are prime to make the playoffs for the first time since 1993.

The Rays, that scrappy young club from St. Petersburg, continued to rake in the young, talented, cheap, and team controlled players by trading veteran pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis to Kansas City. In Return the Rays received stud prospect Wil Myers along with pitcher Jake Odorizzi. While this deal didn't compare in size or impact to the dealings of the Blue Jays, the Rays secured one of the top MLB-ready talents in the minors without trading AL Cy Young award winner David Price, who's expensive arbitration years just kicked in. While this move might set the Rays back at first, with prospects like Chris Archer and youngsters like Jeremy Hellickson and Alex Cobb vying for places in the Rays rotation, Tampa looks to remain relevant in 2013 as well as the foreseeable future.

The Yankees offseason involved signing a number of older veteran players to short-term contracts, plugging holes, in order to stay under the luxury tax, but also not fall into the cellar of the AL East. The Yanks brought back Ichiro, Andy Pettitte, and Hiroki Kuroda, while adding veteran Kevin Youkilis to man the hot corner at 3rd. While these moves seem a bit desperate on the surface, the Yankees made shrewd moves that should keep them germane in the AL East in 2013. The only hole in the Yankees roster seems to be behind the plate, but the team has all spring training to figure out their backstop issues.

So, with every team in the AL East realistically eyeing the playoffs for the first time in years, what aspect might separate one from the rest of the pack? Last season, the Orioles used their brilliant bullpen to push them just past the Rays into the playoffs, and it seems as though the relief core may be the key to the east once again. In 2013, the O's bullpen put up a combined 6.4 fWAR, which ranked 3rd in the American League behind only the Royals and the Rays. Orioles relievers made quick work of the final innings of a game not by utilizing the strikeout, but instead by inducing more ground balls than any other AL East pen. In addition, the O's gave out few free passes, ranking second, behind only the Rangers, in BB/9.

Team	K/9	BB/9	LOB%	GB%	FIP	WAR
Rays	9.33	2.88	77.10%	46.40%	3.19	6.7
Orioles	7.49	2.87	78.50%	49.10%	3.68	6.4
Yankees	8.92	3.2	77.60%	44.90%	3.62	5.5
Red Sox	8.31	3.38	74.80%	45.10%	3.91	4.6
Blue Jays	8.58	3.51	74.10%	43.10%	4.21	2.5

The Orioles didn't have the best offense, nor stellar starting pitching, but Buck Showalter's bullpen kept the team in every game, making the Orioles a deadly foe in close games. Unfortunately for Baltimore, their incredible winning percentage in 1-run games and extra inning games came halted in the ALDS in which 4 out of the 5 games played ended with a margin of victory of just 1 run. Given that the Orioles bullpen became their key to success, and the growing parity in the AL East, what have Baltimore's rivals been up to?

David Robertson

The Yankees lost a key part of their 2012 bullpen, righty Raphael Soriano, but they were able to parlay his success into an additional draft pick by offering him a qualifying offer that he didn't accept. Instead, once Soriano signed with his new club, the Washington Nationals, the Yankees picked up a compensatory pick, which turns out to be the 32nd pick in this summers upcoming draft. The Yankees willingly parted with their 2012 bullpen anchor given Soriano's desire for a lucrative multi-year contract, the ability to obtain a draft pick in return, and most importantly knowing that future Hall-Of-Famer Mariano Rivera would return in 2013 to fill the hole left by Soriano. In addition to Rivera's return, the Yankees still have Nate Robertson, the strikeout machine, who has posted a 12.20 K/9, 2.70 FIP, and accumulated 6.0 fWAR since 2009. Between Robertson, Rivera, and a mix of Boone Logan from the left side, the Yankees bullpen should hold up late in games.

Roberto Hernandez

The Rays made some minor changes to their bullpen, but given their recent success, these changes should prove fruitful. Tampa traded ground ball specialist Burk Badenhop to the Brewers, replacing him with Roberto Hernandez, the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona. Carmona, like Badenhop throws from the right side, and more importantly throws a hard sinker that induces a great number of ground balls. Since becoming a regular in the Majors, Hernandez has posted a ridiculous 58.4 ground ball percentage, good enough for a 2.26 GB/FB ratio. Hernandez did most of his previous work from the starting rotation, and while the Rays may ask him to spot start in a pinch, his role will be out of the bullpen where Joe Madden expects him to induce ground ball after ground ball. The Rays also resigned Joel Peralta while retaining the services of All-Star closer Fernando Rodney by picking up the 2013 team option attached to his contract. Add those names to lefty fire baller Jake McGee, and the Rays bullpen looks ready to buttress their young starting pitching for another season.

Koji Uehara

The Red Sox made headlines by signing lots of free agents this offseason, including a few in the bullpen. The Sox signed southpaw, and well traveled, Craig Breslow, now onto his 7th MLB franchise, to a conservative 2-year $6.25 million contract, added former Ranger's righty Koji Uehara for 1-year and $4.25 million, and traded for former Pirates closer Joel Hanrahan. In addition, the Sox will benefit from the return of Andrew Bailey from an injury marred 2012 campaign, especially since Bailey's 2013 will determine how much money the reliever will get paid in his 3rd year of arbitration. Oliver, a projection system created by Hardball Times' Brian Cartwright, projects good numbers from the Red Sox bullpen, especially from Uehara, who I think represents the keystone to success for this relief core. Also, don't forget about Daniel Bard, who many at spring training say is progressing nicely and might fit into the Sox pen around after All-Star break if the team moves a pitcher a the trade deadline.

Name	ERA	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Koji Uehara	2.99	10.15	1.39	2.74
Joel Hanrahan	3.64	9.90	3.93	3.08
Andrew Bailey	3.99	8.25	3.20	3.12
Junichi Tazawa	3.77	8.67	2.89	3.28
Craig Breslow	3.75	7.93	3.32	3.51
Alfredo Aceves	4.35	7.10	3.44	3.86
Andrew Miller	5.17	8.58	6.34	4.10
Total	3.95	8.65	3.50	3.38

The 2013 Blue Jays bullpen looks eerily similar to the 2012 pen that ranked middle of the road in some statistical categories and poor in others amongst AL teams. They coaxed lefty Darren Oliver to return, and remain hopeful that Sergio Santos can overcome shoulder surgery to return to his level of nastiness by June. The Jays put a lot of faith in their starting rotation, stocking it with work horses like R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle, as well as possible ace Josh Johnson. These three starters should lessen the load on the Blue Jays pen, but given Johnson's injury history and Buehrle's age, the Jays may need to call on their relievers in 2013 more often than they expect.

Darren O'Day

How about those Orioles? Did the organization with the golden bullpen do anything to improve on 2012? Instead of adding or subtracting, the Orioles did their best to keep their 2012 bullpen in tact for 2013. The O's avoided arbitration with Jim Johnson and Darren O'Day, two of the most utilized and important parts of their 2012 relief prosperity. The team returns Luis Ayala, Tommy Hunter, lefty Brian Matusz, and Troy Patton, all of whom they hope will continue to perform at a high level. While the O's may not have "upgraded" their bullpen, the team expects to add one if not two highly touted starting pitching prospects in mid-season, Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman. With the addition of these young stars to an already solid starting pitching staff, the Orioles have no need to tinker with a bullpen that already promises to keep men off base, and to induce lots of double plays late in games.

The AL East is a free for all in 2013, with no one team looking like the current favorite. Given that fact, each team has done their best to ensure that their bullpen won't be the one to falter in 2013. Most of a team's success derives from hitting and starting pitching, but with 5 teams so close to each other in talent and projected wins, it may come down to which relief core can hold the lead in the latter third of the game. While we can only attempt to predict which bullpen will be the most valuable in 2013, it is safe to say that the competition for the, most-likely, 2 playoff spots in the AL East should be fierce.

From Cy Young to Mariano Rivera

The Nobel Prize

Awards are, in their simplest forms, acknowledgments of an achievement.  Meritocratic societies judge members of the collective on certain skills that are deemed important to the group.  As a global society, we have decided that the areas of Physics, Chemistry, Literature, Peace, Economics, and Medicine to be of highest importance.  Thus, those who demonstrate incredible skill, talent, dedication, and proven results in these categories receive illustrious awards known as Nobel Prizes, distinguishing them from all others who participate in the marketplace of ideas and more specifically, in the fields mentioned above. 

Sports, like Physics, Chemistry, Medicine, Literature, and the rest, cannot be described as anything other than meritocratic. In every game a winner emerges and a loser lives to play another day, but no matter what the results, one team or player always rises above the rest, claiming the title, “the best.”  Because sports often involve both team and individual activities, we recognize the feats of both groups.  Team awards are commonly seen as more glorious, thus these awards are the pinnacles of team sports.  In Baseball the team that wins the World Series remains champions for a full season, an honor in itself.  The team wins the most prestigious trophy, and of course, the recognition from everyone associated with the sport.

The Cy Young Award

Although team awards constitute the greatest of all accomplishments, individual awards also matter a great deal.  These awards consist of the Most Valuable Player Award, the Cy Young Award, Golden Gloves, Silver Sluggers, and All-Star game appearances.  Each accolade comes with it’s own set of idiosyncrasies, but I want to focus on the Cy Young Award.

First given out in in 1956, one year after the death of the award’s namesake, Cy Young.  Originally the award was given to the best pitcher in the Major Leagues, but after 1967, Major League Baseball decided to choose a winner in each league, one for the National League and one in the American League.  The Baseball Writers Association of America votes on the winner of the award.  The winner is dubbed the “Baseball’s best regular season pitcher.”  Obviously, this implies that any pitching performed in the playoffs is not considered when choosing the Cy Young Award winners. 

 Recently, I have heard and read speculation that this years National League recipient of this illustrious award should be one of two relief pitchers.  Aroldis Chapman of the Cincinnati Reds and Craig Kimbrel of the Atlanta Braves.  Both pitchers are relief pitchers, specifically known as closers.  Their job is to come in the game in the 9^th inning when their team has a lead, but no more than a 4-run lead, and get the final three outs to ensure a win.  Although my opinion of the whole structure of the modern bullpen is biased towards getting rid of the entire construct, I still believe that considering bullpen pitchers for the Cy Young Award to be ludicrous.

Closers compile a statistic that no other player does, due to the situation in the game in which they play, known as the save.  The full definition of what constitutes a save can be found here: “The Save” Saves do not mean very much when appraising a pitcher, due to the variability with which a pitcher can attain a save.  Oftentimes closers will pitch in the most high-pressure situations.  Imagine this.  Your team clings to a modest 2-run lead against your arch nemesis.  The game has been grueling, with both teams putting forth great amounts of effort.  The 9^th and final inning comes about and with your team in the lead you bring in your best relief pitcher to get the final three outs.  He comes into the game and must face the opposing team’s three most ferocious hitters, batters who strike fear in the average pitcher, and players who have already displayed their hitting prowess by belting numerous hits throughout the game.

I don’t know about you, but that seems like a pressured-filled situation to me.  I would want a pitcher in the game who could get three outs without allowing a batter to reach first base safely, let alone put the ball in play.  Pitchers who can rack up the strikeouts are often closers, and thus pitch in these situations. 

Kimbrel

Chapman

Now, here is a different situation.  Your team is playing the last place team in the league.  You have a 3-run lead going into the 9^th inning, and scheduled to hit are the 7-8-9 hitters for the opposing team.  These three batters barely produce any positive results no matter who stands opposite them on the pitching mound.  This situation lacks the depth and tension that coursed throughout the 1^st scenario.  A pitcher who ends the game in this situation receives a save equivalent to the one received if he finishes the first game. 

Saves are not good evaluators of value or even effectiveness.  They show that a pitcher is able to thrive given very specific conditions, but does not distinguish between the numerous other variables that can have a great effect on the impressiveness of the situation. 

So, Saves aren’t as amazing as pundits and coaches often think.  Surely other statistics exist that can prove that relief pitchers are worthy of the Cy Young Award.  The issue with every other statistic is that the Baseball Writer’s Association evaluates starting pitchers on the same statistics.  The major difference between starters and relievers is innings pitched.  I think that we, as fans and observers, can agree that given a larger sample size we can draw more definitive conclusions.  Innings pitched constitute the sample size for a pitcher.  If starters have more innings pitched, than we have a clearer picture into their true value and thus can better determine who is the “best pitcher in baseball.” 

Here are some statistics of crucial statistical categories used to analyze a pitcher’s performance: 

	Saves	ERA	WHIP	K/9
Chapman	28	1.26	0.68	16.74
Kimbrel	31	1.26	0.65	15.7
	SO/BB	FIP	fWAR	Innings Pitched
Chapman	7.57	1.01	3.2	57
Kimbrel	6.82	0.98	2.3	43

	Wins	ERA	WHIP	K/9
Cueto	15	2.72	1.16	9.2
Dickey	15	2.45	1	7.07
Gonzalez	14	3.32	1.14	9.83
	SO/BB	FIP	fWAR	Innings Pitched
Cueto	3.43	2.88	4.1	162.1
Dickey	4.61	3.04	4.1	161.2
Gonzalez	2.85	2.7	4.1	141

In the second of the two charts I utilized the statistics of the three top starting pitchers in the National League, Johnny Cueto of the Reds, R.A. Dickey of the Mets, and Gio Gonzalez of the Nationals.  I highlighted some particularly important statistics in red.  As you can see, all three starting pitchers’ innings pitched (our sample size) dwarf those of their relief counterparts.  Chapman and Kimbrel obviously thrive at their jobs.  With K/9 rates both higher than 15.00, these two relievers barely allow the ball to be put in play. Even more so, they do not allow many base runners, as their WHIPS perfectly indicate. 

When calculating the statistic Wins Above Replacement, innings pitched plays a vital role.  The stat is a value statistic, thus it encompasses many of the crucial aspects of, in this case, pitching.  On www.fangraphs.com, the site from which I took this data, Chapman and Kimbrel do not even qualify for the category of WAR unless you remove the restriction of a specific number of innings pitched.  Even so, all three starting pitchers mentioned, have higher WARs than Chapman and Kimbrel.

The idea of considering these two closers for the Cy Young award should be discarded as soon as possible.  The two major reasons given when considering these two pitchers for the award are that no other starting pitcher is having an outstanding enough year to distance themselves from other pitchers, and that both Chapman and Kimbrel are having historic seasons.  I can’t deny these are not true, but I can tell you that they do not and should not matter when discussing who should win the award for best pitcher. 

Just because the decision on who wins this award will be difficult, does not imply that we need to start looking outside of the box for an answer.  Trust me, this is way outside of the box.  Oh, relievers have won the Cy Young in the past, but very few of them actually deserved it.  If you read the article I linked concerning the rules governing a save, you might have noticed that a pitcher can attain a save by pitching the last three innings of a game in which their team is winning.  The number of runs separating the teams plays almost no significance other than that the pitcher’s team in question must be winning the whole time.  Find me a relief pitcher who has accrued as many saves as Kimbrel and Chapman, but did so by throwing three innings at least most of the time, and I would consider them for the Cy Young Award. 

www.baseball-reference.com, calculates a pitcher’s performance in difference situations in a game.  They dub a specific type of situation a high leverage situation.  In my opinion, even a closer who pitches only in these high leverage situations but still throws a third of the number of innings that a starting pitcher does remains undeserving of the Cy Young Award.  This has yet to happen, and might make me think twice about just giving the award to a starter, but in the end, it would not sway my opinion.  Innings pitched, a true sample size, constitutes too much importance. 

The Great Mariano Rivera

My attitude in this situation seems quite closed minded.  Under no circumstance, even a clearly hypothetical one, will I consider a relief pitcher for the Cy Young.  That seems a bit unfair.  Given that the modern bullpen schematic seems fairly permanent, I think we should create a separate award for the best relief pitcher in baseball.  We can call it the Mariano Rivera Award, named after the hands-down best relief pitcher ever to take the mound.  Rivera has never won a Cy Young Award.   

This season I would give the Mariano Rivera Award to either Aroldis Chapman or Craig Kimbrel.  They demonstrate incredible relief statistics and both deserve to be considered for this hypothetical accolade.  I don’t know exactly who should win the Cy Young Award, but it should be a starting pitcher, not a relief pitcher.  Should we change the award to mean the best starting pitcher in baseball? Yes, we should, and simultaneously we should respect the specialization of the game and create the Mariano Rivera Award. 

In a true meritocracy, we shine a light on the best.  In this case, we do not need to reconsider who qualifies for a specific award as much as we should consider expanding the entire awards process to include another prize.