Line by Line, Brick by Brick

Giancarlo Stanton

In order for a building to stand without wavering, it must have support from the bottom all the way to the top. Often times when a structure seems unstable, it's time to knock it down and start from scratch. Sometimes that is the most cost effective way to solve the problem. Being able to spot an issue of instability before it comes to the surface can save time, money, and aggravation. The Miami Marlins had a number of motivations behind clearing their team of almost every big contract, even though the team signed 3 of those contracts not one year ago. Sure, some of the motivation is that Marlins owner, Jeffry Loria, wants to continue to collect his revenue sharing checks without paying money to his players in order to gain the largest profit margin possible. To Loria, his team can either profit from the fans that come out to see a winning team, the motivation behind signing Reyes, Buehrle, and Bell last offseason, or through revenue sharing and a minuscule payroll.

While Loria may be stuffing his pockets, while Major League Baseball looks the other way, the Marlins have traded away their best, and most expensive, players before and become winners once again. We've seen this movie, read this script, and know the way it works. (If you want a more detailed description of this process, read this article I wrote here) The Marlins recently traded Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, and Jose Reyes to the Blue Jays in exchange for a solid catch of prospects. In lieu of this so-called "mega deal", numerous writers, pundits, and fans expect the Marlins to look into trading Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton is still signed to his Minor League contract, so he's fairly cheap for a player who'se put up over 13 fWAR in his first 3 seasons in the Major Leagues. Oh, and did I mention he's only 23 years old?

Stanton is a true talent. He's the prototypical power hitting, middle of the order, masher who'se mere presence in the lineup can change the entire opposing team's game plan. He is big, fast, strong, and can hit the ball a mile, but he remains a Marlin. The Marlins have no need to trade Stanton because he's inexpensive, and by far their best current Major League player. On the other hand, following the trade between the Marlins and Blue Jays, Stanton remarked that given the fire sale, he wants to leave the Marlins as soon as he can. Basically, unless the Marlins can put a winning product out on the field in the next 2-3 seasons, Stanton won't even consider signing an extension, let alone, re-signing with the team when he becomes a free agent in 2017. From Stanton's point of view, this is not only reasonable, but necessary. Stanton wants to win and make heaps of cash, but due to his current contract, he won't that kind of money for a few years.

In my opinion, since the Marlins hold all of the cards in this situation, I don't see the team trading Stanton unless GM Michael Hill is blown away by the package in return. Since the team is currently rebuilding, Hill would want to receive top level prospects, at least one of whom is close to MLB ready. Any team that could successfully trade for Stanton would receive a player under team control for the next 4 seasons, who, according to PECOTA, is expected to produce an annual output of 4.1 WARP per season. Since 1 WARP is worth about $7 million dollars, any team paying Stanton under $28 million would be getting solid value.

To get a look at just how good Giancarlo Stanton has been, consider these facts. Since 1945 only three players have hit more home runs in seasons they played in which they were 20-22 years old than Stanton. They are Frank Robinson, Eddie Matthews, and Alex Rodriguez. Only 6 players had a higher wRC+ in the same seasons, and only 16 players had a higher total fWAR than Stanton in those seasons. Most impressively, Stanton had the highest isolated power of any player since 1945 in their 20 year old, 21 year old, and 22 year old seasons combined. Isolated power is slugging percentage minus batting average, and it usually peaks around 25 to 26 years old. At 23 years old, it isn't unreasonable to conclude that Stanton's power numbers could increase, and his high strikeout rate will decrease, making him quite the formidable hitter. Overall, the only current player with whom Stanton is similar is the Braves Jason Heyward, another young bright talent.

So far, the teams that have been linked to Stanton are the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies, and Chicago Cubs. Each team would likely need to give up its top prospect, as well as 2 others. So, here's what I think these teams would have to give up to procure Stanton from the Marlins.

Yankees: The Yankees traded Jesus Montero to the Mariners, but retain a strong and youthful Minor League system, ripe with a number of top prospects. Mason Williams and Manny Banuelos are probably the top hitting and pitching prospects respectively in the Yankees system. Catcher Gary Sanchez might be their top position player, but Williams should be ready to play in the big leagues before the young backstop. Banuelos is coming off of arm surgery, which drops a team's desire to trade for him, but his talent and productivity this far in the minors still makes him a great pickup. Even trading Williams and Banuelos wouldn't get the Marlins to give up Stanton, the Yankees would most likely have to add in a third prospect like Adam Warren, a solid pitching talent who has already thrown a few pitched in the Majors. If the Marlins asked for Brett Gardner, I'm sure the Yankees would have to think twice, but might trade Gardner too. The acquisition of Stanton would give the Yankees incredible meat in their order, and might give them offensive firepower equivalent, if not better than the Angels, Tigers, or Rangers. I'd ballpark the chances the Yankees have of acquiring Stanton at 1:25.

Red Sox: The Red Sox, like the Marlins are rebuilding, but in a different way. The Red Sox are willing to spend money, are always looking to win, and would love to solidify the middle of their order for years to come by trading for Giancarlo Stanton. If the Red Sox were to lose some top prospects, the team could fill those spots via free agency, or look towards winning in the near future rather than the distant one. The Sox system has some talent, especially after trading away some big contracts to the Dodgers in exchange for mostly prospects. A reasonable trade for Stanton would have to include Matt Barnes, Jackie Bradley, and Ruby De La Rosa, if not more. The only reason I'm not putting Xander Bogaerts, the Red Sox top prospect, in the deal is that the Marlins just received a top middle infield prospect in Adeiny Hechavarria from the Blue Jays, which makes Bogaerts less valuable. Even a package like the one I'm proposing might not be enough to sway the Marlins, but those three players could all become above average to dynamic MLB players. I would give the Red Sox 1:30 odds of landing Stanton.

Baltimore Orioles: This situation is vastly different from the first two. The Orioles have recently become viable in the AL East, want to continue that competitiveness, but count on their young players to help, making it more difficult to part with them. For example, the O's brought up top hitting prospect Manny Machado towards the end of 2012 to fill in at third base even though many thought Machado wouldn't be ready for another year. The Orioles currently have the top-pitching prospect in all of Minor League Baseball, Dylan Bundy. His stock will probably never be higher than it is now, but the Orioles would rather bring him up to become the ace of their rotation for the future than trade him. On the other hand, the O's won more than 90 games last season with a mediocre pitching staff, and adding Stanton would give them the power bat they so desperately need in their order. A package of Dylan Bundy and Jason Espisito might coax Miami into moving Stanton, but if the Orioles aren't willing to give up Bundy, they could also offer Jon Schoop, Kevin Gausman, LJ Hoes, and Bobby Bundy, but I doubt even that package would pry Stanton from Miami. If the Orioles are willing to trade Bundy their odds are good, 1:10, but if not, I'd say 1:60 they can acquire Giancarlo.

Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies used their top prospects a few years ago to obtain Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee (the first time), Roy Oswalt, and Hunter Pence, so their farm system is somewhat depleted. On the other hand, the Phillies have the potential to put together an enticing enough package. Stanton would give the Phillies a power right-handed bat in their small park at a small cost. Stanton plus the Phillies pitching staff could put the Phillies in a good position to win another championship. The Phillies have two ways of compiling the necessary goods to get Stanton. One possible trade would be top pitching prospects Trevor May and Jessie Biddle along with outfielder Zach Collier. Neither Biddle nor May are #1 starter material, but both have #2 potential, while Collier is a young, talented, but inexperienced outfielder who has the potential to be a 20 home run, 20 stolen base type player. Another option would be to trade Domonic Brown along with Trevor May and Austin Hyatt. The Phillies don't have the flashy, toolsy, top level prospect the Marlins would be looking for, but could fill out Miami's pitching prospects, a valuable commodity. I'd make their odds of landing Stanton 1:40.

Chicago Cubs: The Cubs are a team unlike any of those that I've already mentioned. This is a team that is also in complete rebuilding mode. Acquiring Stanton would be a nice coup, would secure sell outs at Wrigley, and might even get the Cubs closer to contending in the NL Central than the team is right now. Since many of the players the Marlins might want already play in the Majors, the Cubs do have more to lose than the O's, Yankees, Red Sox, or Phillies, but shouldn't be considered out of the running. A package deal of Brett Jackson, Jeff Samardzija, and Matt Zczur could do the trick. Jackson is ready to play right now, has shown he can hit MLB pitching, and could fill Stanton's spot in the Marlins order. Samardzija is already a very good MLB pitcher with the sky as his limit. He's also only 27 years old. The only players I could see Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer holding onto no matter what would be recently signed Cuban outfielder Jorge Solar and first baseman Anthony Rizzo, everyone else is on the table. Chances the Cubs get Stanton: 1:30.

Overall, I don't think the Marlins are going to trade Giancarlo Stanton this offseason, but given their recent moves, nothing is impossible when it comes to the fish. A dark horse candidate for acquiring Stanton could be the Tampa Bay Rays, given their amount of young pitching, but add in the recent contract extension given to Evan Longoria with Stanton's incoming arbitration eligibility, and the Rays might not be able to afford the right fielder. Also, don't count out the Rangers or Pirates. Stanton has a legitimate reason for requesting a one-way ticket out of Miami, but he's not in a great bargaining position. On the other hand, the Marlins could complete their rebuilding process by trading Stanton and acquiring 3-4 more prospects. One thing is for sure, never say never when dealing with the Marlins.

Two Outfield Trade Candidates: Josh Willingham

Yesterday I wrote about a good candidate to be traded this offseason in Cleveland Indians outfielder Shin-Soo Choo. Today I am going to perform a similar analysis on another outfielder who could be traded, the Minnesota Twins' Josh Willingham. Willingham, or "The Hammer", is a 33 year old left fielder who signed a 3-year $21 million contract with the Twins last offseason. He has two years remaining on his current deal, which is set to pay him $7 million per season. Let's find out a little more about Josh.

Willingham began his career with the Florida Marlins, but in 2008 the Marlins traded him to the Washington Nationals. On average, since 2009, Willingham has proven to be a worth more than 2.5 fWAR.

	fWAR	rWAR	WARP
2009	2.5	2.3	3.2
2010	3	2.6	2.1
2011	2	2.1	2.9
2012	3.9	2.9	4.5

 As you can see, while Willingham does not provide all-star caliber numbers every season, he is consistently solid. Other outfielders with similar fWAR numbers since 2009 include Andre Ethier, Cory Hart, and Adam Jones. The next logical question is, how does Willingham provide value? What would a team, willing to trade for him, be getting?

Josh Willingham has never, and will most likely never be a great defender. He isn't very fast, and won't steal many bases. Most of what he provides a team comes from his offensive abilities. Take a look at these numbers. 

	Tav	wOBA	wRC+
2009	0.296	0.375	129
2010	0.299	0.375	132
2011	0.305	0.350	122
2012	0.312	0.380	143

Tav stands for true average, which is Baseball Prospectus' way of improving the statistic of batting average. It is scaled similarly, but incorporates other aspects like reaching base by error when calculating the average. It is a linearly weighted average, and adjustments are made in the calculation to factor for parks and league. Willingham has been consistently great at producing runs. He has high Tav, wOBA, and wRC+ showing a well-rounded approach at plate. As you can see below, Willingham produces both by getting on base as well as hitting for power. 

	HR	R	OBP	ISO
2009	24	70	0.367	0.237
2010	16	54	0.389	0.192
2011	29	69	0.332	0.232
2012	35	85	0.366	0.264

In the last 4 seasons Willingham ranks 12th amongst all outfielders in wOBA, a metric that does a great job portraying a players' overall offensive contribution. His 104 home runs since 2009 rank him 9th amongst all outfielders, just behind 2012 free agents Josh Hamilton (110) and Nick Swisher (105). In addition, he ranks 12th amongst outfielders in BB%, while striking out at about an average rate. From a hitting perspective, Willingham, despite his age, is a jewel. Due to his versatility to both get on base and hit for power, Willingham can bat in any spot in the order from 2nd all the way to 6th and be productive from each spot. 

Defensively, Willingham plays a low-key position. Amongst the three outfield positions, center field and right field are deemed as more defensively difficult positions to play. Players who are great defenders are put in center field, those with slightly less defensive ability but still good arms are put in right field, while outfielders who hit far better than they field usually end up in left field. That isn't to say that left field is similar to the designated hitter, but it isn't as important to be a superb defender when playing left field. Here are some of Willingham's defensive numbers since 2009.

	UZR	DRS	FRAA
2009	-5.7	-4	1.9
2010	-1.9	1	-9.2
2011	-5.4	0	-3
2012	-7.9	-13	4.8

 From a range perspective, Willingham fails due to his lack of speed. He can't cover nearly as much ground as better fast fielders so bloop hits fall in front of him, gappers get by him, and he isn't jumping over the wall to take away home runs. On the other hand, Willingham has a decent arm, and Baseball Prosepctus' defensive metric FRAA has twice in the last 4 seasons shown him to be above average at making the plays necessary to make in left field. In addition, it is important to note that in 2011 and 2012 Willingham played in big ballparks in Oakland and Minnesota, which can be tougher for outfielders who that slower. This may have contributed to his consistently negative UZR numbers. 

Since 2009 Willingham has earned just over $20 million dollars, but according to Fangraphs, he has been worth four times that amount. Outperforming one's contract by 4x is incredible, it shows that Willingham has continued to exceed expectations, a sign of a player who continues to work on his craft, a quality that cannot be underemphasized. If Willingham puts up between 4-6 fWAR over the next two seasons, he would be worth between $18-$27 million but, he is only set to be paid $14 million over the next two seasons combined. In addition, if Willingham's production drops, any team that trades for him will be rid of him by 2015, a reasonable bargain.  

So, now that we know what he brings to a team, and that he has been quite undervalued throughout his career, we have to ask ourselves one important question. Why would the Twins want to trade Josh Willingham? Well, the Twins haven't been a very good team the last two seasons, and they signed Willingham to a deal last winter partially hoping that if they continued to lose more than they won, he would be a perfect trade candidate. The Twins need to rebuild with young players, and they especially need pitching. So, any team willing to give up a B level pitching prospect or two could swipe Willingham and his affordable contract without an issue. 

Teams that should seriously consider trading for Willingham include the Phillies, Braves, Rays, Orioles, and Reds. 

As I articulated yesterday, the Phillies need outfield help, whether it be at a corner outfield spot or in center field. Domonic Brown will most likely play in one spot, but the other two are uncertain. Trading for Willingham would give the Phillies a power hitting right-handed bat that gets on base who can protect slugger Ryan Howard. In addition, he would break up the lefties in the middle of the Phillies order so if opposing teams bring in lefty specialists to get them, they would have to deal with Willingham and his .384 wOBA off of lefties last season. They don't have much in the farm system, but if Ruben Amaro wants to win next season, Willingham would be a great low cost, high reward player. He is a better version of Pat Burrell at a much lower cost.

Chipper Jones has retired. It opens up a hole at third base for the Atlanta Braves. If the Braves want to, they can fill this hole by moving 2012 left fielder Martin Prado to third base. He has played there before, and, especially in the current market, it is easier to find a replacement in the outfield than at third. The Braves, have three young pitchers that the Twins would want including Julio Tehran, Randall Delgado, and Mike Minor. My guess is that Minor is off limits, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Braves would be willing to part with Delgado or Tehran in order to claim Willingham. The Braves need to replace Jones' offensive production, especially given Brian McCann's recent offensive woes, and Willingham could do just that.

The Tampa Bay Rays are the perfect fit for Josh Willingham. The Rays have phenomenal pitching, and they have a bunch of it. The team recently brought back James Shields, and continues to produce great young pitchers like Alex Cobb and Matt Moore. Most importantly, the Rays need to upgrade their meek offense, but as usual, do so at a low cost. A trade that sent Rays righty Jeremy Hellickson to the Twins for Josh Willingham might be exactly what both teams need. Hellickson is a pitch-to-contact righty who is young, has MLB experience, and even won the AL rookie of the year award in 2011. He would be perfect pitching in Target Field, and the would immediately upgrade the Twins rotation at very little cost. The Rays have a need for Willingham and the necessary trade pieces to make this deal happen. Willingham's $7 million/season contract is a bit on the high side for a team like the Rays, but if they simultaneously dealt lefty David Price, it could lead to some serious payroll relief.

The argument for the Orioles is simple. The team needs better offensive production. They cannot count on Chris Davis to be as hot from the plate as he was towards the end of last season, and Willingham would provide a steady presence in their lineup. An outfield consisting of Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Josh Willingham would give the O's stability in the middle of their order, and another solid veteran presence on a young team. Willingham has played in the area before, and might like a change of scenery from cold Minnesota to warmer Baltimore. 

The Reds two best hitters are both lefties. Joey Votto and Jay Bruce provide a lot of umph in the middle of the Reds order, but if the Reds were to add Willingham to the bunch, it would allow Dusty Baker to split the two lefties up in the lineup. Ryan Ludwick was a revelation for the team last season, but he has been very up and down the last few seasons, and cannot be counted on to have a repeat performance. Home run friendly Great American Ballpark would be an upgrade for Willingham. He was able to 35 home runs in the much bigger Target Field, so his production should go up playing more in the warmer air and smaller confines of Great American Ballpark. The issue here is if the Reds have what it takes to land Willingham. They recently traded prospects to get Mat Latos, Jonathan Broxton, etc... so while Willingham makes sense in Cincinnati, I'm not sure they can pony up enough to acquire him.

In the end, I think Willingham ends up in Tampa Bay. The Rays almost make too much sense here. They need a low cost power bat, have exactly what the Twins are looking for in return, and due to cost concerns have little choice to upgrade vio free agency. This deal would make sense for both teams. The Rays have so much good young pitching, I can see three possible deals unfolding. 

Deal 1) Twins send Josh Willingham and $2 million to the Rays in exchange for RHP Jeremy Hellickson

Deal 2) Twins send Josh Willingham to the Rays in exchange for RHP Wade Davis

Deal 3) Twins send Josh Willingham to the Rays in exchange for RHP Chris Archer

If the Twins are serious about rebuilding, they need to trade players like Josh Willingham, and do so before he becomes less attractive. Teams like the Rays, Phillies, and Braves need someone like him, so watch out for an upcoming deal. Most importantly, remember that in this offseason where more than 100 free agents will sign new contracts, sometimes it's better to upgrade via trade. 

Santana on the Move

This is a short post about a recent offseason move. Since the 2012 MLB season has officially concluded, and the offseason has begun, I will mix in short posts that concern the day-to-day activities going on in Major League Baseball as well as continue to write longer more feature pieces. 

Today the Kansas City Royals, a team that finished 2013 3rd in the AL Central with a 72-90 record, acquired right-handed pitcher Ervin Santana. Santana has played his entire career with the Angels, progressing well from a middle-of-the-rotation starter to a reliable #2 pitcher until last year's abysmal performance. Santana has compiled at least a 2.0 fWAR every season in which he threw at least 200 innings, showing signs that last season may have been an anomaly. Last season, in 178.0 innings pitched, Santana compiled a -0.9 fWAR, a 6.72 K/9, awful 1.97 HR/9, and an FIP of 5.63. Santana’s changeup percentage (the percent of his pitches that were changeups) rose from 3.2% to 7.3%. In addition, his fastball is not rated well, so he relied on his above average slider to get him out of trouble, but the pitch is more of a strikeout pitch meant to make batter miss. Hitters would sit on his slider, and if it was in the zone crush it, as it came in at about 83 mph. Overall, Santana was plagued by not adapting. His walk rate, WHIP, and hits per 9 innings were close to his career average, but his home run rate rose drastically. Santana stopped getting lucky, got hit hard pitching in a very good division in 2012, and could not change his pitching to combat the hitters success.

The Royals were quite obvious in their intentions for the offseason, stating that the starting rotation would be their focus. The team has built a strong young core of hitters including Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, Eric Hosmer, and Mike Moustakas, but needed upgrades in their starting rotations, as a number of young arms haven’t panned out, or took steps back last season. Mike Montgomery cough, cough. In return for Santana, the Angels received left-handed prospect Brandon Sisk. He has developed well in the minors as a lefty specialist out of the bullpen, but might not have won a spot in KC’s pen in 2013. The Angels bullpen was their Achilles’ heel last season, and with so many large contracts to pay out, the Angels welcome a young, cheap lefty meant for relief pitching. For a more detailed scouting report of Sisk, click here.

Santana joins a rotation that included such pitchers as Jeremy Guthrie, Luke Hochevar, Luis Mendoza, Felipe Paulino, and Bruce Chen. This staff combined for a 7.7 fWAR and a 4.59 FIP, making this move a cost-effective way for Dayton Moore and the Royals to upgrade their pitching staff. The common maxim is to buy low and sell high, and the Royals did just that, trading for Santana when his stock couldn’t be any lower. More importantly, in a fairly weak division that saw the no team win 90 games, smaller acquisitions like this might make more of a difference in the long run. Santana will earn $13 million in 2013, which will most likely exceed his worth. The fact that the Royals will most likely overpay Santana is the price they pay for giving up such a minor prospect. It’s possible that Santana may have needed a change in venue to get his career back on track. After signing C.J. Wilson, resigning Jared Weaver, and trading for Zack Greinke, the Angels rotation was stock full of good arms, leaving Santana as “just another pitcher”. Oftentimes this can derail a younger less mature pitcher to not work as hard. Now that Santana will be featured in the front of the Royals rotation, his work ethic, desire, and ability to adjust should improve.

Overall this is a good move for both sides. The Angels free up some money to further improve their bullpen, as well as add a solid young arm at a low cost to compete for a spot in the 2013 pen. The Royals add a proven starter to their rotation and give up very little. This is a better move than trading for Jonathan Sanchez, a move the Royals made last offseason.