The Marlin or the Trout

In the 2010 movie The Social Network, Sean Parker proclaims some sage advice on the future of Facebook.   He said, in the words of Aaron Sorkin's award winning script, "When you go fishing you can catch a lot of fish, or you can catch a big fish. You ever walk into a guy's den and see a picture of him standing next to fourteen trout?" Apart from the obvious aquamarine references, this vignette perfectly depicts the current mindset of the Miami Marlins.  

Last night, while watching MLB Network's coverage of the two latest major trades, Ken Rosenthal claimed that the Marlins are looking to sell a number of their talented players in order to build a core if different and younger players.  The Marlins hopes for making the playoffs continue to dwindle as they find themselves 10 games back of the Washington Nationals in the National League East and 7.5 games back in the wild card hunt.  The Marlins, like every team want to catch the big fish, a world series trophy.  This franchise knows how to accomplish this goal, as the have won the same number of world series in the 19 years of the franchise has existed, as the Philadelphia Phillies have won in their 122 years of existence.  

In the past, the Marlins have built a winning team by cultivating young, talented, and most importantly, cheap players through the draft and trades.  They bring these youngster up to the Major Leagues, allowing them to "get their feet (or fins) wet" and gain some experience.  Then, as if struck by lightning, management decides that "this year" is the year to win.  Next, the front office makes a few brilliant and strategic trades to bring in some veteran players to fill the gaps.  Between the young talent and experienced veterans, the Marlins manage to win the wild card, and bing, bang, boom they win the World Series.  This series of events has already occurred twice in less than 20 years, and still the Marlins find it difficult to fill their stadium on a nightly basis.  Oh, and don't forget that after winning the World Series, Marlins management proceeds to trade off all of their talent in order to, once again, plant their farm system with seeds of young prospects.

After years of radio silence in the off season free-agent market, the Marlins finally made a splash.  An organization notorious for never spending a dime, put it's money to good use by snatching up free-agent shortstop Jose Reyes, righty closer Heath Bell, and lefty Mark Buehrle (whose last name I would continuously mispel if not for spell check).  These additions, and a beautiful new retractable roof stadium, were supposed to attract hoards of fans to come roaring through the ticket gates and bring in much needed revenue.  The fish even made a trade for veteran Carlos Lee in the hopes he could help them to the promised land, but El Caballo could not right this forlorn team.  Unfortunately, possibly by not sticking to the old yet proven method of winning, the Marlins find themselves below .500, and barely clinging to the hope that they will turn it around.  

In lieu of this disappointing season, the Marlins seem to be taking, not the road less traveled nor the road most frequented, but a middle path.  A number of, still young, and highly talented players remain on the Marlins squad.  Many of these players came up through their farm system or were traded to Miami just as their Major League careers began.  Yesterday, the Marlins traded right-handed pitcher Anibal Sanchez and second baseman Omar Infante to the Detroit Tigers for a package of prospects including coveted righty Jacob Turner.  This move, in addition to rumors currently swirling, show that the Marlins are not shopping for veteran talent to complement young stars, but instead searching for young talent to partner with their newly acquired veteran free-agents.  

Anibal Sanchez, Hanely Ramirez, Josh Johnson, and Ricky Nolasco are all considered prize assets on the open market, and it seems as though the Marlins are willing to sell.  If the combination of Sanchez and Omar Infante could fetch a package deal including Jacob Turner and Rob Brantly, I can only imagine what the Marlins could get by dangling Ramirez and Johnson as bait.  Nolasco is an interesting prize as well, due to his consistency and proven ability to keep right handed batters from reaching base (.296 OBP against vs righties in his career).  Nolasco is under club control for 2013, which means any team trading for him would be trading for at least a year and a half of service, a more valuable commodity than a half-year rental.   

It isn't often we see underachieving, yet talented, teams such as the 2012 Marlins looking to trade some of their better assets in order to put together a team that could win over a longer stretch of time.  Usually such teams put all of their efforts into righting the ship by buying and not selling at the deadline.  Teams like the Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians, and St. Louis Cardinals fall into that category in 2012, but those three squads have been linked to buying, not selling.  I commend the Marlins for their strategy, although it must be easier to pursue such a game plan when the team only ranks 18th in attendance after building a totally new stadium (See http://espn.go.com/mlb/attendance for more information)  

Nolasco is a nice trade piece, as is Heath Bell, and the talented yet enigmatic Hanley Ramirez, but the true prize is Josh Johnson.  Johnson has a year left on his current contract, and despite recent injuries and struggles, has bounced back this season.  Baseball Prospectus predicts he will finish the year with a 2.8 WARP.  More importantly, according to BP's 10 year predictor metrics, the team that possesses Johnson can expect a >3.0 WARP pitcher through the 2018 season.  His upside is undeniable and with Rangers, Angels, and Red Sox scouts reported to be at his most recent strong start, there exists proof to back up the rumors that the Marlins will trade him by the July 31st trade deadline.  

With a wealth of abundant talent on their current MLB squad, the Marlins can expect the equivalent of stock options in return for the rare jewels in their tank.  These prospects may not become the players the Marlins hope them to be, but some of them will be the fish of the future, a future the Marlins hope will be bright and full of wins.  So, does this spectacle deserve the name fire sale, or is it merely a mirage?  Hanley Ramirez, although a stellar talent, has had attitude problems, and while Josh Johnson has extreme talent, he has been oft injured.  The Marlins have twice outsmarted every other Major League team by sneaking into the playoffs and winning the World Series as a franchise sans money.  Is this the beginning of another shadowy run at a title?  Maybe not this season, but I wouldn't say 2014 is out of the question.  

Let's Talk Pitching

This past Sunday Americans celebrated the end of the NFL season by eating lots of fried food, cheering for the players as much as the commercials, and then passing out praying their boss is a Giants fan.  Now that the Super Bowl is over, one fact remains, only 11 days until pitchers and catchers report to spring training.

In light of the imminent arrival of pitchers and catchers to Florida and Arizona I decided to write about pitching, and more specifically, starting pitching.  As I alluded to in my previous post, every starter in a rotation has the ability to contribute as much as his fellow starters.  The designation of #1 starter or #5 starter usually tells us something about a pitcher's value, but both the #1 and #5 starter in every rotation have equal opportunities to contribute.

This off-season a number of high quality starting pitchers changed teams including C.J Wilson (Rangers to Angels), Mark Buehrle (White Sox to Marlins), Edwin Jackson (Cardinals to Nationals), Gio Gonzalez (A's to Nats), and Matt Latos (Padres to Reds).  Recently the trend in Major League Baseball has been to compile an elite set of starters in order to achieve success.  Examples include the Phillies, Giants, Braves, and Rays.  No matter how a general manager accomplishes this goal, putting together a great rotation instead of a star studded lineup has become the norm. 

No division compiled more starting pitching in the last 3 years than the National League East.  Whether by trade, free agency, or through the draft, the NL East is chock-full or great starters.

Philadelphia Phillies:  When you think of great starting pitching there is almost no better place to start then the reigning NL East champion Phillies.  With All-starts Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels topping the Phillies rotation, Philadelphia is poised to claim a 6th consecutive NL east title.  With the emergence of Vance Worley as a reliable strike-throwing starter (61.5% F-strike%) the Phillies decided to allow the now older and more injury prone Roy Oswalt to test the free agent waters.  This makes their rotation younger and less expensive, especially since both Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels will be making considerably more money in 2012 than in 2011.  Rounding out the rotation is Joe Blanton.  Blanton spent almost the entire 2011 season on the disabled list, but was integral to the Phillies' World Series runs in 2008 and 2009 and, like Worley, should provide the Phillies with 5 strike-throwing starting pitchers.  Last season the Phillies 5 starting pitchers compiled a WAR of 28.8 utilizing Fangraphs' version of WAR.  In comparison the 2011 Marlins starters compiled a measly 15.5 total WAR.  The Phillies should be pleased with their rotation going into the 2012 season as it, along with the Giants rotation, is one of the top 2 rotations in the NL.

Atlanta Braves:  To say the Braves have depth in their starting rotation is a massive understatement.   7 different starters could easily see themselves in the Braves 2012 rotation.  Most teams would turn to the witchcraft to compile a group of arms like the Braves'.  While the Braves' depth seems almost like overkill, it may prove vital to their success.  Last season only veteran sinkerballer Tim Hudson reached the 200 inning plateau with no other Braves pitcher currently in the 2012 rotation throwing for more than 152.0 innings.  Beginning the season 4/5 of the Braves rotation was born in the 1980's with two other possibilities (Randall Delgado and Julio Tehran) under the age of 23.  The Braves rotation, unlike the Phillies, is made up of a lot of "ifs".  For example, if Tommy Hanson continues his success as a big strikeout pitcher and stays healthy... and if Jair Jurrjens stays healthy and performs as stellar post-All-star break as he does before mid-season... and if Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy pitch at a more veteran level than their ages... and finally if Randall Delgado and Julio Tehran live up to their highly touted statuses... the Braves could have the best rotation in baseball.  Is this likley?  Probably not, but the Braves rotation has the potential to be incredible, which is better than most.

If the Nats are to win Strasburg is the key

Washington Nationals: This is quite possibly the most intriguing starting rotation in all of Major League Baseball.  No discussion of the Nationals starters can begin with anyone but Stephen Strasburg.  As someone who has seen Strasburg pitch in person, I can tell you that he passes the eye test for ace starter.  Strasburg demonstrates poise and presence on the mound and has 3 plus pitches.  The only knock on the Nats phenom is that his sample size isn't large enough to make any bold statements as to his greatness.  His lack of experience coupled with recent Tommy John surgery usually don't bode well for young starters, but Strasburg's talent is unmatched.  In an attempt to improve their recently weak starting rotation the Nats flexed their wallets by trading and then extending Gio Gonzalez and then signing Edwin Jackson.  Gonzalez was one of the best lefties in the AL last season, but played in pitcher friendly Oakland.  Gonzalez compiles a lot of strikeouts, but his forte is getting into and then out of trouble.  The southpaw had a WHIP of 1.32 last season but a LOB% of 77.1%.  With a projected BABIP of .302 and a friendlier hitter's ballpark Gonzalez could get burned if he tires after the first time through the lineup, but overall he's a solid addition to the Nats rotation.  The best signing of the off-season may turn out to be the one-year deal the Nats gave to Edwin Jackson.  Over the last 4 seasons Jackson's FIP and WHIP have trended in a positive direction which bodes well for him in 2012.  Rounding out the rotation is John Lannan, but with the Nats declaring their desire to move him he may be pitching elsewhere very soon.  Chin-Ming Wang and Ross Detwiler will compete for the fifth starting spot.  Neither pitcher will significantly improve the rotation, but if Wang can compile a ground ball percentage of at least 50% he could make a significant impact.

Anibal Sanchez

Florida Marlins: Like the Nats, the Marlins rotation received a makeover.  New faces include Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano.  Adding Zambrano and Buehrle to Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, and Ricky Nolasco creates a fairly formidable rotation.  They key for Johnson is to stay away from the disabled list.  When he is healthy he is arguably the best pitcher in Major League Baseball, but for this team to do well he must stay healthy.  Sanchez's recent history shows a trend towards ace status, but even if he doesn't achieve #1 type numbers his presence will be felt.  Nolasco has been solid, with his numbers showing a shift from a strikeout pitcher to one who gets outs on the ground.  If Nolasco's numbers remain similar to last season he will have done his job.  Although the Marlins probably overpaid to get Buehrle, he is a lefty with impeccable control, which is invaluable.  Zambrano is obviously the wild card of the bunch, but I expect an improvement from him because if anyone can control crazy Carlos it's the wildest manager out there, Ozzie Guillen.

Maybe Mr. Met should pitch

New York Mets:  The Mets rotation sports Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, and R.A. Dickey.  If Santana can somehow become the pitcher he was before his arm issues, the Mets can basically count on one win every five games, but the odds of him returning to his Cy Young self are slim.  Pelfrey may be one of the most frustrating pitchers in the league in that every time he looks like he has crossed the threshold into greatness he regresses back to mediocrity.  Niese, Gee, and Dickey are all #4 caliber starters, but with the Mets projected to remain cellar dwellers in the east their contributions lack importance.

Overall, the NL East could be one of if not the best pitching divisions in Major League Baseball, but nothing is certain until they play the games.  Ranking these rotations isn't easy but I'm up for a challenge.  #1 Phillies #2 Nationals #3 Braves #4 Marlins #5 Mets.  The Marlins have the most potential to move up this list while the Braves and Nats have the most potential to move down.  One fact is certain, the battle for NL East supremacy will be a fight to the finish.

Going, Going, Gone Forever

             On December 4^th, the Miami Marlins once against stoked the fire of the Major League Baseball hot stove.  The Marlins, who recently signed closer Heath Bell, reportedly inked former Mets shortstop Jose Reyes to a 6-year $106 million contract. Matt Kemp recently signed a $160 million contract with the Dodgers, making Reyes’ recent signing the second 9-figure deal made this off-season.

             The Phillies should have signed Jose Reyes.  The hole between second base and shortstop remains void with Jimmy Rollins currently a free agent.  Most, if not many, believe Rollins’ eventual destination will be a return to Philadelphia.  Despite Rollins’ hometown hero status, the Phillies made a mistake making him their top priority in filling their need at shortstop.

            Reyes’ contract will pay him $17.67 million per season, and if you need convincing as to the frugality of the deal see Dave Cameron’s article on Fangraphs.com [insert hyperlink here].  Reyes commanded a great deal of money on the open market, becoming the second highest paid free agent shortstop ever.  In 2011 Reyes compiled a 6.1 WAR, his third posting of at least a WAR of 6.0 in his 9 MLB seasons.  In this, his contract year, Reyes displayed his true brilliance.  He hit .337 with a .384 on base percentage and scored 107 runs.  His batting average on balls in play was a career high .353 and his strikeout percentage was a career low 7.0%.  For a leadoff hitter, these numbers show greatness.  Reyes’ game is predicated on his speed on the base paths.  He annoys pitchers, forcing them to take their attention off of the hitter and put some effort into preventing Reyes from running.  Reyes proved a pest running the bases, stealing 39 of 46 bases he attempted, good enough for an 85% success rate, which shows patience and intelligence when stealing. 

            Despite his outstanding statistics, Jose Reyes’ name always sparks a conversation about his health.  Reyes has never played in 162 games, and has play in 160 games only twice in his career.  This past season Reyes experienced similar injury problems that forced him to visit the disabled list twice.  Reyes played only 126 games in 2011, a fact that worried many teams when they considered signing him, but given his statistic in 2011 also showed his potential brilliance at age 28. 

             Jimmy Rollins has been the Phillies everyday shortstop since 2001.  He won the national league MVP in 2007 and helped the Phillies win the 2008 World Series.  During his time in Philadelphia Rollins has become an icon, team leader, and fan favorite despite a decline in his production.  Rollins showed some minor improvements in batting average (.268), BABIP (.275), and OBP (.338) but still pales in comparison to Reyes’ numbers.  One consistent criticism of Rollins has been his inability to walk and his tendency to swing early in the count and constantly hit pop-ups instead of line drives.  Rollins’ walk percentage was 9.2% in 2011, the third best of his career, but even still, his on base percentage ranked 9^th in MLB for shortstops.  Rollins continued his penchant for popping the ball up, posting an abysmal .95 ground ball to fly ball ratio.  In addition, Rollins compiled a 41% fly ball percentage on batted balls and only a 7.7% home run to fly ball percentage.  Thus, Rollins, as the Phillies leadoff hitter, continued to hit the ball in the air too often without showing the power he provided earlier in his career. 

            Rollins, at age 32, is looking for a 4-5 year contract.  Such a deal would constitute another addition to bad contracts given out to aging players by Ruben Amaro.  Rollins’ numbers show a decline in every area, even defensively, which is seen as his greatest on-the-field attribute.  Reyes received a 6-year contract from the Marlins, which would end when he is 34 years old, while a 4 year contract for J-Roll would leave him a Phillie until age 36.  Over that span of time, barring any major injuries, Reyes will most likely be a better player.  Thus far this off-season the Phillies biggest splash was the signing of Jonathan Papelbon to a 5-year $50 million contract.  Instead of giving a relief pitcher $10 million per season, the Phillies should have used that money to sign Jose Reyes.  Despite the growing market for closers, set up men, and lefty specialists, these players till only play in about 60 games per year while even an injured Jose Reyes contributes in at least 100 games per season.  Imagine for a second a lineup that included Jose Reyes.  It might look like this:

1	Jose Reyes	SS
2	Shane Victorino	CF
3	Chase Utley	2B
4	Hunter Pence	RF
5	Jim Thome	1B
6	John Mayberry Jr.	LF
7	Placido Polanco	3B
8	Carlos Ruiz	C
9	Roy Halladay	SP

With Reyes at the top of lineup, the Phillies, even without Ryan Howard, do not look offensively challenged.  With Rollins leading off, that story changes greatly.  The combined OBP of Reyes, Victorino, and Utley from 2011 was 1.083 while the combined OBP of Rollins, Victorino, and Utley in 2011 was 1.037.  With outstanding starting pitching the Phillies do not need to score huge numbers of runs, but with Reyes they might have scored enough to push them back into the World Series, while with Rollins they may continue to decline.  Finally, financially, the Phillies already possess the largest NL payroll, so I ask, if the Phillies are willing to spend money, why not do so efficiently by signing players like Jose Reyes and David Dejesus, and not Jonathan Papelbon and Jimmy Rollins. 

            So, should the Phillies have signed Jose Reyes?  I think Reyes provides a great upgrade to Rollins, and had they not wasted money on Papelbon, signing Reyes was financially feasible.  Rollins will most likely be the opening day shortstop for the Phillies in 2012, but that decision, coupled with Reyes’ new contract in Miami, may prove to be a missed opportunity.