Upton, Upton and Away

Justin Upton

Since June 2012, www.mlbtraderumors.com has put out 30+ articles with the words Justin Upton rumors in the title. This isn't just a blind fasciation with a specific player; the Diamondbacks have done everything but see Upton on the plane out of Phoenix. Arizona hasn't offered Upton an extension or publicly supported him; instead the team has shopped him all over the league hoping to get the best package in return. Upton still has three affordable years left on his current contract, is the ripe young age of 25 years old, and has compiled 17.1 fWins in his 6 MLB seasons, a combination usually destined for stardom. Upton has numerous skills and few deficiencies, and he's entering the most productive years of his career, and now he has a new team.

Justin Upton the Player:

Who is Justin Upton? Over the last few months we've taken to see him as a commodity, and not a player. Maybe familiarizing ourselves with him will give us greater insight into the Diamondbacks' decision to trade him and the Braves' desire to acquire him.

First of all, Upton is 6 foot 2 inches tall and weighs 205 pounds, a prototypical athlete's build. This is something a scout would say, but many well skilled in analytics would say that it isn't indicative of success. Both the scout and the numbers guy are correct. Not all athletic players are great and not all great players are athletic, but players with the combination of athleticism and the numbers to back it up generally make cases for Cooperstown. Upton's build aids in his ability to stay healthy and his raw combination of speed, power, and agility.

Offensively, Upton has had ups and downs in his career, but never a bad season, so we can safely assume that he won't drop off, and that the numbers we have are reliable. From a power hitting perspective, Upton fits the bill as a middle-of-the-order hitter. While Upton's home run totals have ranged from 17 to 31, he has a total of 2 more home runs in his career than fellow young talented outfielder Adam Jones, signifying a high probability that he will continue to pump out somewhere between 20 and 30 home runs per season for the duration of his prime years.

HR ISO SLG 2007 2 0.143 0.364 2008 15 0.213 0.463 2009 26 0.232 0.532 2010 17 0.17 0.442 2011 31 0.24 0.529 2012 17 0.15 0.43

Upton is a right-handed batter, meaning he might have a problem with right-handed pitching, but as you can see from his platoon splits, Upton hits both righty and lefty pitchers fairly equally.  

PLATOON	AVG	OBP	SLG	TAv
vs L (Multi)	0.278	0.387	0.480	0.294
vs R (Multi)	0.283	0.349	0.460	0.285
Split (Multi)	0.005	-0.038	-0.02	-0.009

Upton's platoon split numbers show an ability to hit righties and lefties, but it also shows a lack of patience or an inability to see right-handed pitching as opposed to left-handed pitching well. Looking at his BB/K ratio splits, 1.04 vs. LHP and 0.37 vs. RHP, further proves this point. So, Upton goes from being a good hitter against righties to a very good hitter against lefties, typical for right-handed hitters.

Defensively, Upton is suited for his position, corner outfield. Using defensive runs saved and ultimate zone rating, it's fairly obvious that Upton is just above average in right field, to the point that he is a defensive asset in comparison to an average right fielder. Given that the Braves have stud right fielder Jason Heyward patrolling right field, Upton will be moved to left-field, a least demanding outfield position, where his defensive numbers will most-likely improve even more. While defense does begin a descent as players age, Upton is only 25, so moving him to left field won't allow any defensive deficiencies to pop up for the near future. 

Upton also presents as an above average baserunner. He has posted a positive, if not above average UBR in each of his 6 seasons in the league, showing both speed and base running acumen. 

2007	BsR
2008	1.1
2009	1.5
2010	3.5
2011	0.7
2012	4.5

Justin Upton the Acquisition:

Martin Prado

So, it turns out to be true, Justin Upton is worth the price of a trade, but what about this specific deal with the Braves? The Braves sent 3B/OF Martin Prado, RHP Randall Delgado, SS Nick Ahmed, RHP Zeke Spruill, and 1B/3B and Brandon Drury. Prado has been a great player, in that he is above average defensively at third base, left field, and previously at 2nd base, while posting career .341 wOBA, 111 wRC+, and .345 OBP. Prado makes his living by swinging. He doesn't walk often, career 7.0 BB%, swings a lot, career 90.1 contact percentage, but still produces 11% more offense than a replacement level player. 

Randall Delgado is the swing player in this deal. I say "swing player" because Delgado is on the cusp of becoming a full-time Major League pitcher. Delgado has a great deal of talent and upside given the impressive comments from scouts, but he hasn't replicated his Minor League success in the big leagues just yet. Delgado is 23, so if he is destined to blossom, it should happen within the next 3 seasons. He's cheap, under team control, and has a mid-90's fastball, sinker/change up combination that induces ground balls. On the other hand, he also has issues with his control, posting a 3.95 BB/9 rate in his career. In addition to his high walk rate, Delgado, despite his power four-seamer, posted a 50.2 GB% last season showing a pitcher who isn't going to post high strikeout numbers, but has a power sinker that has serious movement. That serious movement probably causes some of his wildness, so if Diamondbacks pitching coach Charles Nagy can work on keeping Delgado calm on the mound, and confident in his abilities, his walk numbers should come down a bit as the velocity on his fastball comes down. Fausto Carmona went through a similar situation when pitching in Cleveland.

As for the other three players in this deal, all three are prospects. Nick Ahmed is a polished shortstop that does everything well, but isn't exceptional in any category. He plays solid defense, has good speed, makes good contact, but doesn't project as more than a replacement level shortstop. Given most teams' lack of depth in up-the-middle position prospects, Ahmed becomes more valuable than his numbers/skills indicate. Look for the Diamondbacks to either move Ahmed for another pitcher, the rumor mill seems to think the Tigers' Rick Porcello, or to keep him to compete with Didi Gregorius as the future shortstop in Arizona. Spruill is an interesting prospect. He's similar to Delgado, but has no MLB experience under his belt. He's a righty with speed and multiple useable pitches, and has received positive scouting reports noting him as a future #3 type starter. This gives the Diamondbacks 4 young near MLB-ready or MLB-ready pitchers, one more than they had going into the offseason. While Trevor Bauer has the possibility to be a top-15 starting pitcher in the Majors for the next 10 years, Spruill isn't too far off, and he represents only 1/5 of the package the Dbacks received for Upton. 

Who Got the Best Deal:

GM Frank Wren

In this case, I'm going to say that it's a tie. In the short term, the Braves won. In fact, I think the Braves won this deal for the next 3 seasons. Once Upton's current contract expires and he is looking at a contract worth approximately $150 million, the Braves won't be able to afford him. Sure, his brother B.J. is signed on with Atlanta for 5 seasons, but that won't be enough to persuade brother Justin from leaving for the big money.  Upton is a stud, but not a star. Stardom comes with consistency, so when Justin Upton shows true consistency, we can dub him a star, but for now he is just a stud. On the other hand, I would say fellow Braves outfielders Jason Heyward and B.J. Upton are also studs. The Braves look like they traded a lot for Upton, but given his age, and previous experience, Justin is worth it. Oh, and there's the added bonus that the Diamondbacks also sent third baseman Chris Johnson to Atlanta. This is a downgrade from Prado, but when you add Johnson's projected numbers to Upton's projections, then subtract Prado's projections, the Braves have made a serious offensive upgrade. The Braves had to make a move like this if they wanted to have a chance to win the NL East since the Nationals, at least on paper, look to be the favorites to win the east for a second consecutive season. 

Braves Grade: A- (The Braves should continue to draft well, so replenishing the farm system won't be difficult. Given that they made a significant upgrade at a time when they had to in order to compete for the playoffs, makes me like this trade a lot.)

GM Kevin Towers

The Diamondbacks might regret this move for a season or two, but in the long run I expect them to be declared the winners of this deal. Every player they acquired other than Martin Prado is under team control at a cheap price for a minimum of 5 years. That being said, the Diamondbacks are reportedly looking to finalize a contract extension with Prado. In addition, if Kevin Towers moves Ahmed and another piece to Detroit for Rick Porcello, the Diamondbacks will have incredible pitching and outfield depth as well as great young hitters at catcher, 2nd base, and 1st base. The Diamondbacks are a middle market team, meaning they aren't usually blessed with options, yet this franchise is full of them. Towers has given himself flexibility where it counts. Outfielders can switch positions and lend themselves easily to platoon splitting while pitchers are oft-injured, so having a stock piling of players at both positions gives the Diamondbacks enough backup options to keep them contending with the newly strengthen NL West for years to come. The one possible move that some say will happen and some say shouldn't is a trade of Jason Kubel. Kubel provides a great power bat against right-handed pitching as well as a propensity to hit lots of home runs and doubles in the big alleys at Chase Field. In my opinion, the Diamondbacks should keep Kubel, since even the acquisition of Martin Prado doesn't make up for the offense lost with Upton's relocation. 

Diamondbacks Grade: A (They have everything they want, and more importantly, the options to further improve. If Upton becomes the next Hank Aaron Towers will be pissed, but this trade allows the Dbacks to compete in 2013 as well as 2014-2018.

My Grade: A

Recent Movement: Part II

Free agency and the MLB offseason stop for no one. Following the usually bustling Winter Meetings, numerous free agents have signed with teams and trades have been consummated. In our first installment, I looked at contracts signed by Zack Greinke, Kevin Youkilis, Ichiro Suzuki, and others. In this follow up post I'll look at some of the contracts signed in the last three days including big names like Josh Hamilton and Anibal Sanchez as well as minor ones like Mike Adams and John Lannan. So, without further adieu, let's begin.

Josh Hamilton in Halo Red

LA Angels sign OF Josh Hamilton to a 5-year $125 million contract: With Zack Greinke safely secure in a Dodgers jersey, the next biggest name remaining unsigned until now was Josh Hamilton. According to sources, prior to signing this multi-year deal with the Angels, Hamilton's suitors included the Texas Rangers, Philadelphia Phillies, and Seattle Mariners. Notice how I didn't mention the Angels as a team noted to be interested in Hamilton. No one saw the Angels coming, but LA has a history of swooping in as a mystery team to sign big name free agents. Last offseason Jerry Dipoto and Arte Moreno made a big splash by signing Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson to multi-year deals. This offseason, the Angels revamped their pitching staff, but no one suspected them of needing another outfielder. Nonetheless, Hamilton is now a halo, staying in the same division, but moving a bit further west.

So, what does Hamilton bring to the table? Hamilton is a top hitter. While in Texas, Hamilton put up great offensive numbers including both power numbers and hitting for average.

	wOBA	wRC+	HR	ISO	fWAR
2008	0.384	132	32	0.226	4.1
2009	0.321	85	10	0.158	1.4
2010	0.445	175	32	0.274	8.4
2011	0.369	126	25	0.238	4.1
2012	0.387	140	43	0.292	4.4

As you can see, Hamilton is the prototypical middle of the order hitter, He creates runs at above average rates, hits home runs regularly, and in 4 out of the last 5 seasons he has been an overall offensive juggernaut. In the field, Hamilton has shown to be adequate, posting solid UZR numbers in every season in Texas other than 2012. With the impending move from the more demanding position of center field to a corner outfield spot, Hamilton's defensive numbers should return to above average rates. Hamilton brings the entire package to Los Angeles. The Angels made a bold move here. They are a wealthy team, with major money coming in from a big TV deal, but most though the Angels were done spending after picking up Pujols and Wilson. Instead, Hamilton joins Pujols and Mike Trout as a three-headed monster in the Angels lineup. 

Interestingly, the Angels signing of Hamilton fits well with the other moves the team has made this offseason. The team ridded themselves of the talented underachieving Ervin Santana as well as Dan Haren replacing the two starters with Joe Blanton and Tommy Hanson. Hanson and Blanton are solid innings eaters, but without a solid offense, these two pitchers won't make the difference between Angels wins and losses. Well, with the addition of Hamilton, the Angels added the cog that will help the Angels win games despite average pitching. With Trout, Hamilton, and Pujols making up 3 of the first 4 spots in the Angels batting order, opposing pitchers will have to tread carefully. 

My Grade: A- (Okay, so no one saw this coming, but it actually makes a lot of sense for both the Angels and Hamilton. Hamilton moves away from Texas, but joins a team with one of the best managers in baseball, and most importantly a team willing to give him more than a 4-year contract. Hamilton wanted stability, but most teams saw him as volatile given his off the field problems with substance abuse. The Angels needed another big bat in their lineup to provide value in place of the departing Zack Greinke. It's odd to think that the Angels could replace Greinke's production on the mound with a bat, but value is value, and instead of giving up fewer runs, the Angels are just going to score more. Both lead to more victories.)

Red Sox sign RHP Ryan Dempster to a 2-year $26.5 million contract: You might be asking yourself, do the Red Sox have a thing for players making $13 million AAV? Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, and now Ryan Dempster will all make ~ $13 million per season over the course of their contracts with the Sox. Victorino and Napoli aside, let's focus on Dempster's recent deal. Dempster is somewhat of a phenomenon in that his career took off after crossing age 30 threshold. Ever since Dempster turned 30, he has posted an average fWAR of 3.6 per season as opposed to an average fWAR of 0.8 in the 5 years prior to turning 30. This portrays a pitcher who has always had talent, but figured it out later in his career. That type of turnaround only comes from someone who has the intelligence to adapt towards falling velocity on his fastball, and the acumen to learn how to fool hitters by locating and mixing up his pitches. PECOTA projects Dempster to put up 1.7 and 1.2 WARP in 2013 and 2014 respectively, making him worth just about the amount of money he will be paid in those years. The Red Sox are definitely not stupid, and whether Dempster ends up becoming a trade candidate at he 2013 deadline or a solid #3 starter for a contending Sox team, Ben Cherington and company can be assured to get a solid value out of Dempster. Dempster gets outs by throwing a hard sinker that has a solid pitch value, enough to consistently get Dempster GB% numbers above 43%. Combine those numbers with a K/9 rate of ~ 8.00, and you've got a pitcher that keeps the ball in the ballpark, but misses plenty of bats as well. As long as Dempster continues to pound the strike zone, keeping his BB/9 low, he should provide the value that PECOTA forecasts he will.

My Grade: B+ (The Red Sox should get solid value out of Dempster, with the key to his deal being the length of the contract, not the dollar amount. If the Red Sox are contenders in 2013, Dempster will surely be a significant component, but if they falter, he would be the perfect trade candidate at the 2013 trade deadline. Most teams in contention would love a right-handed veteran who gets ground balls at a reasonable salary and with one year of control under his belt.)

Anibal Sanchez

Tigers sign RHP Anibal Sanchez to a 5-year $80 million contract: So what do we have here? Every big name free agent on the 2012-2013 market has changed teams. Greinke went from the Angels to the Dodgers, Hamilton switched AL West teams going from Texas to LA, and B.J. Upton moved from Tampa to Atlanta. Finally, a top free agent who decided to stay with his 2012 team for the future. As this article shows, Greinke and Sanchez compare fairly favorably, except that Greinke has shown glimpses of ace status pitching, while Sanchez seems to top out at a #2 starter. Still, Sanchez's new $80 million contract bests C.J. Wilson's deal deal from last offseason, so how did this deal get done? It was reported that the Cubs had offered Sanchez a deal similar to the one Wilson got last season from the Angels, until Sanchez decided to give the Tigers a last shot at besting the Cubs' offer. The Tigers swooped in, and signed Sanchez, effectively stealing him from the Cubs. Sanchez obviously wanted to return to Detroit, but then why would he want to leave? The Tigers are contenders who need Sanchez to solidify their rotation behind Justin Verlander. Sanchez is young (28 years old), durable (3 straight seasons with at least 195 innings pitched), keeps the ball in the park (.92 HR/9 in 2012), and most importantly, projects well in the future. At $16 million AAV, Sanchez will need to continue his > 3 win success in order to justify the money coming his way. Whether he can accomplish this feat is unknown, but given the Tigers' other option, this was probably the best decision for the franchise. 

My Grade: B (A+ for Sanchez seeing as he's probably getting more money than he's worth, but only a C+ for the Tigers. Theoretically they could have spent that money more wisely because Sanchez isn't a sure thing. It'll be interesting to see if Sanchez lives up to this deal, or becomes an overpaid #4 starter.)

Mike Adams

Phillies sign RHP Mike Adams to a 2-year $12 million contract: Ruben Amaro continues to stupefy Phillies fans by making prudent, intelligent, and understated moves. First he traded for Ben Revere instead of paying boatloads of money for Josh Hamilton or Michael Bourn, next he traded for Michael young instead of signing Kevin Youkilis, and now he's making smart decisions to upgrade the bullpen. Mike Adams is about as solid of a bullpen pitcher as is out there. Adams won't blow you away, but he throws a very good cutter and curveball that fool hitters from both sides of the plate, forcing them to hit the ball on the ground, but more importantly keeping the ball in the park. Adams, even in home run friendly Texas, kept his HR/FB % below 8%, which is an incredible feat. Since 2006 only three Texas relievers have kept their HR/FB % below 8%, and they are all considered top of the line relief pitchers (Joaquin Benoit, Neftali Feliz, and Darren Oliver). Adams has been durable, providing an average of ~ 59.0 innings pitcher per season since 2008, doing so in San Diego and Texas. It is important for late inning relievers to be able to pitch in higher-pressure situations, and Adams does just that, posting positive WP/LI numbers in his last 5 seasons as well as a 1.27 clutch in 2012. At age 35, it makes sense that Adams is looking for a veteran team with playoff hopes as well as a multi-year contract. The Phillies must have been thrilled to keep Adam's annual salary to an average of $6 million, willingly giving the righty pen pitcher more than a single year deal. Adding Adams to lefty Antonio Bastardo, righty Philippe Aumont, and closer Jonathan Papelbon makes a lot of sense, and solidifies the Phillies bullpen.

My Grade: A (There is little to be said against this deal. The Phillies aren't paying a lot for a solid late inning reliever with experience, and an inability to give up home runs, which is a must in home run friendly Citizens Bank Park. Adams gets the security of a 2-year deal, something most relievers over the age of 35 get.)

Phillies sign LHP John Lannan to a 1-year $2.5 million contract: Ruben Amaro continues to impress. The Phillies trade of Vance Worley and Trevor May to the Twins in exchange for Ben Revere left the Phillies with a hole in their rotation. This is precisely the hole that the Phillies expect John Lannan to fill. Lannan spent most of his time in triple A last season due to the plethora of pitchers the Nationals had on their roster including Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Edwin Jackson, etc... So, why would the Phillies want a pitcher who couldn't even crack an opening day roster in 2012? Well, John Lannan is a very specific type of pitcher. He, like Mike Adams, keeps the ball in the ballpark, and more importantly keeps the ball on the ground. In his career, Lannan has put up some abysmal strikeout numbers (career 4.71 K/9), but has compensated for his inability to miss bats by posting a career GB% of 53%. While Lannan will give up his share of base runners, with runners on base, he has a 50% ground ball percentage, showing his ability to keep runners from scoring by forcing hitters to ground into double plays. The Phillies have solid up-the-middle defense in the combination of Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley, a duo that should make Lannan look very good. In looking at a comparison between the departed Worley and Lannan we see a two pitchers who produce similar value but do so in completely different ways. Worley combined solid K/9 rates with good left on base % to keep his ERA down, while Lannan uses the ground ball to get most of his outs. So the equation for this deal is as follows: Ben Revere + John Lannan = Vance Worley + Trevor May. Does this make sense? Well, it probably does. The Phillies have a group of young pitchers all close to being able to compete for the 5th spot in their rotation including Jonathan Pettibone and Brody Colvin, so signing Lannan to fill that spot for one season makes a lot of sense. Here's what PECOTA projects for the Phillies 2013 rotation: 

	2013 WARP
Roy Halladay	4.2
Cliff Lee	3.6
Cole Hamels	3.6
John Lannan	0
Kyle Kendrick	-0.3
Total	11.1

My Grade: B (Now the Phillies sport three ground ball pitchers in their rotation to go along with strikeout gurus Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee. Lannan is a cheap replacement for Vance Worley, and he's only under contract for one year. For Lannan, this contract means an chance at redemption. A chance to show every team that he can still pitch, and that the Nationals were fools for relegating him to triple A. Citizens Bank park is a home run friendly venue, but doesn't lend itself to lots of other extra base hits, so if Lannan can keep the ball on the ground and in the park, he should perform well in 2013)

The free agent market looks to be shaping up. With Hamilton off of the market it is only a matter of time before Nick Swisher, Cody Ross, and Michael Bourn have new contracts. Multiple teams still need outfielders and those are three very good ones. Pitching-wise, with Greinke and Sanchez signing contracts, teams will begin to scramble to complete their starting rotations with those pitchers left on the market. In my next column, I'll look at the two, and soon to be three big trades made since the end of Baseball's Winter Meetings. 

Recent Movement: Part 1

Baseball's Winter Meetings may be over, but it doesn't mean the shopping has stopped. We are only a few weeks away from the biggest gift giving time of the year, and it seems like Baseball's general managers have gotten the message. Recently, a number of big names have found new homes, and I have taken it upon myself to evaluate these deals. So, let's get started.

Greinke In Dodger Blue

Dodgers sign Zack Greinke to a 6-year $147 million contract: Yes, the moment we were all waiting for. Greinke represented the largest domino out there; once he signed, we would see every other pitcher on the market begin signing contracts. Greinke's contract makes him the highest paid right-handed pitcher ever, and the contract's average annual value of $24.5 million surpasses the C.C. Sabathia's $24.4 million AAV as the record for a pitcher on a multiyear contract. The Dodgers had money to spend, and they went for the gold. Greinke joins Josh Beckett and Clayton Kershaw atop the Dodgers rotation, giving them a solid 1-2-3- punch that every playoff team needs. Greinke's contract will take him through his age 34 season, which means the Dodgers will get Greinke's production before it begins to seriously slip due to age. PECOTA forecasts Greinke's future value as such:

	WARP
2013	3.5
2014	3.5
2015	3.4
2016	3.1
2017	2.9
2018	2.6
Average	3.17
Median	3.25

If we extrapolate those forecasts to value in dollars, this deal should benefit both Greinke and the Dodgers. Greinke has proven he can pitch in both the American League (Kansas City Royals and LA Angels) and the National League (Milwaukee Brewers). There is little to say about Greinke's production or this contract, as it seems as though both sides accomplished their respective goals. Greinke becomes a very very rich man who will be in annual contention to make the playoffs, and the Dodgers acquired the top-tier starting pitcher they needed to complement fellow ace Clayton Kershaw, making a big splash with their newfound deep pockets. The Dodgers and Rangers were both vying for Greinke's services, but the Dodgers came out on top. Choosing LA over Texas makes sense for Greinke given that Dodger Stadium ranks tied for the 25th least hitter friendly park in the majors (Park factor of 0.867) while the Ballpark in Arlington ranks as the 4th most hitter friendly park in the league (Park factor of 1.183).

My Grade: A (Greinke and the Dodgers both wanted this union. The Dodgers look to have paid a reasonable amount, while Greinke made a solid career choice, choosing a more hitter friendly home park over the exact opposite.)

Pirates sign RHP Jason Grilli to a 2-year $6.75 million contract: The most fascinating part of this deal is that former MLB outfielder Gary Sheffield represents Jason Grilli. Apart from that aesthetic aspect of this deal, the Pirates sured up their bullpen by bringing back the 33rd best reliever in MLB in 2012 according to Fangraphs calculation of Wins Above Replacement. For comparison's sake, let's look at both Jonathan Broxton and Raphael Soriano, who ranked just better than Grilli last season. Soriano remains a free agent, but he did turn down a qualifying offer ($13.5 million/1 season) to test the waters for more money, showing that he thinks his services are worth more than $13.5 million per season. Broxton recently signed a 3-year $21 million contract with the Reds, which puts his worth at about $7 million per season. Grilli's new contract will net him about $7 million over two years. See the difference? The Pirates made out great here.

	IP	K/9	BB/9	LOB%	FIP	WAR
Jonathan Broxton	58	6.98	2.64	79.2%	3.03	1.3
Rafael Soriano	67.2	9.18	3.19	88.0%	3.32	1.2
Jason Grilli	58.2	13.81	3.38	82.8%	2.8	1.1

The pirates retain a veteran back end of the bullpen pitcher who strikes out hitters at a great rate, and does a good job of keeping base runners from scoring. Grilli is durable, putting up the same number of innings pitched as Broxton who is 8 years Grilli's junior.

My Grade: A- (The Pirates are taking a chance on an older reliever who has never posted K/9 numbers like he did in 2012. It probably points toward some regression, but even still, this is a very team friendly contract. Given the Pirates young arms in the rotation, giving Clint Hurdle a reliable righty in the pen is a solid move.)

Twins sign RHP Kevin Correia to a 2-year $10 million contract: This deal isn't a blockbuster, but I'm sure we can find something interesting here. Correia is a replacement level pitcher who has the ability to "eat innings". Correia was lucky to get a 2-year contract given his less than stellar production over the last few years, but if any team were to sign the veteran, the Twins make some sense. While many of us think of Target Field as a pitcher's park, in reality it is the 10 best hitter's park in the Majors. This means that Correia's numbers could take even a greater turn for the worse in Minnesota. He'll be pitching in a hitter friendly park while simultaneously moving from the NL to the AL. This deal heavily favors Correia since he'll be getting paid an AAV of $5 million, which equates to about 0.9 wins per season, a number, that given his recent production, will prove difficult for Correia to achieve.  On the other hand, if Correia puts up solid first half numbers in 2013, he could be a perfect trade deadline candidate as he has a team friendly deal with a full year of control for 2014. If his production continues to decline, the Twins have essentially signed a place holder until recently acquired young pitchers like Trevor May and Alex Meyer are ready to play big-league ball.

My Grade: C- (A lot of ifs are involved here. He could turn out to be a valuable asset, but too much of the evidence points towards the opposite. Correia is making way more money than he's likely to be worth, so from his side, this deal is an A.)

Kevin Youkilis

Yankees sign 3B Kevin Youkilis to a 1-year $12 million contract: It was no surprise to anyone when the rumors came in about the Yankees being in hot pursuit of Kevin Youkilis. Youkilis represented the best free agent option at third base, and with Yankees 3B Alex Rodriguez out for at least the first half of 2013, the Yankees would settle for nothing less than the best available option. Last season the Red Sox replaced Youkilis with a younger model, but shipped him off to the Windy City. In Chicago, Youkilis got back on track, returning from an injury to post solid numbers (109 wRC+, .339 wOBA, and .188 ISO). PECOTA projects Youkilis to return to his former self, 3.9 WARP, .303 TAv, and .374 OBP. Youk, known as the "Greek God of Walks", has always provided value by getting on base at well above average rates, while providing enough power to compensate for his utter lack of speed. The Yankees gain a versatile veteran who gets on base, and might produce more value than a healthy A-rod would. Youkilis is looking to show the league that he hasn't lost a step despite a down year in 2012, hoping to net himself a multi-year contract beginning in 2014. 

My Grade: B+ (This deal works for both sides. Honestly, the Yankees should have made a longer commitment to Youkilis. A-rod is as close to a sunk cost as a player can get, and if Youkilis can replace Rodriguez for the next 3 seasons, it might seriously benefit the Yanks. This deal gives the Bronx Bombers some options, as Cashman and company can let Youkilis go after 2013 and either make a deal for another third baseman, or risk going with A-Rod in the future. Youkilis gets a healthy contract, looking to justify a multi-year deal going into 2014.)

Ichiro Suzuki

Yankees sign OF Ichiro Suzuki to 2-year $13 million contract: At 39 years old, Ichiro is not the superstar he once was, but he's still a viable MLB outfielder. After performing miserably at the plate in Seattle last year, Ichiro resurrected his hitting production in NYC, going from a .261/.288/.353 slash line as a Mariner to a .322/.340/.454 slash line in pinstripes. The biggest difference in Ichiro's approach to the plate between his time in Seattle and New York in 2012 was that in NYC, Ichiro became more selective. His swing percentage dropped from 49.8% to 46.6%, which caused an increase in hitter's counts. By becoming more selective, Ichiro saw more fastballs, and thus began to put the ball in play in places that allowed him to reach base safely. He his more home runs in New York (thank you short porch), and hit the ball on the ground more often, causing his infield hit percentage to double. The biggest drop off between his play on the west coast and his play on the east was Ichiro's defense. He posted a +13 DRS in Seattle while compiling a well below average -7 DRS playing in the New York outfield. This is a wild swing in defensive abilities, but given the difference in total plays made between Ichiro in Seattle and in New York, the difference in defensive efficiency can be explained by a massive difference in sample size. In the few plays Ichiro made in New York, he didn't perform well, but had he made 4 times as many plays, his top-notch defense would have shown through. The Yankees don't have a proven lead off hitter, but the combination of Brett Gardner, Derek Jeter, and now Ichiro Suzuki should serve as suitable fill-ins. The most surprising part of the deal is that Ichiro found a contract offer for more than 1-year, but after rumors surfaced that the Phillies has offered Ichiro a similar contract, the Yankees were forced to pony up an extra year in order to retain Ichiro's services.

My Grade: B (The Yankees get a cheap option to play the outfield well who uses his speed and savvy to get on base and create runs. Ichiro got the ever illusive 2nd year despite being 29 years old. This isn't a perfect deal since Ichiro's age points towards a decrease in future production, and the Yankees have other needs to fill.)

Reds sign 3B Jack Hannahan to a 2-year $4 million contract: This isn't a biggie, but it is worth noting. The Reds recently acquired Shin-Soo Choo from the Indians via trade, but with the likelihood of the Indians bringing back Scott Rolen decreasing by the second, Hannahan makes a find replacement. Hannahan is a solid defender at third base, putting up a positive DRS in all 5 of his MLB seasons. On the other hand, FRAA, used by Baseball Prospectus, shows that Hannahan has always been a top defender, posting a 16.1 and 10.9 FRAA in 2011 and 2012 respectively. As far as back-up infielders go, Hannahan will serve the Reds well. Hannahan's splits show a huge disparity between his ability to hit right-handed pitching over left-handed pitching. Hannahan posted a 100 wRC+ vs. RHP last season, but an abysmal 40 wRC+ against left-handers. Look for the Reds to put Hannahan in the starting lineup when the Reds run up against right-handers. 

My Grade: B+ (I like this deal for both sides. Hannahan was essentially left out to dry by the Indians, but Cleveland is all about rebuilding at the moment, and a solid platoon third baseman would only take up a roster spot for the Indians. For the Reds, Hannahan represents half the answer at the hot corner. Hannahan will platoon with Todd Frazier, an up and comer for the Reds on the left-side of the infield.)

That's all for this edition of free-agent frenzy, join us next time when we discuss the Josh Hamilton signing, as well as others. 

Winter Meetings: Day 4

Ahhhh, the end of the week. Time to kick back, relax, maybe knock back a few. Well, maybe for most people. Those who remain in Nashville, Tennessee for Baseball's Winter Meetings see Thursday and Friday of this week as crunch time. Remember though, last year we were a bit spoiled. Huge names moved at last year's winter meetings, but this year the opposite happened. Josh Hamilton, still a free agent. Zack Greinke, still a free agent. Michael Bourn, still a free agent. Nonetheless, every day multiple moves were made, teams satisfied, players happy, and fans left shaking their heads. Let's check in on day 4 and see what went down.

"Big" Joe Blanton

Los Angeles Angels sign Joe Blanton to 2-year $15 million contract: This deal came in late last night. The immediate reaction on Twitter was that this deal was stupid, ineffective, and most likely an overpay. Blanton is what we in the business call an innings eater. He is effectively league average, but isn't injury prone, and doesn't implode to the point at which he has to be rushed off the field lest an arrant piece of flying fruit from an angry fan hits him in the face. Blanton throws strikes, plays to contact, and gets sneaky strikeouts with pitches like tailing fastballs and circle change ups. Given Blanton's makeup, there is one particular statistic to watch. That is BB/9. When Blanton isn't walking hitters, but instead pounding the strike zone, he provides his team much more value. Sure, he'll probably give up some more home runs, but a solo home run here or there isn't a bad thing when compared to 3-run home runs due to back-to-back walks. Blanton's title is back of the rotation starter, and with Jared Weaver and C.J. Wilson at the top of the Halos staff, that's all Jerry Dipoto is looking for from Big Joe. $7.5 million per season is a little steep, so I can't say the Angels did a sneaky-good job here, but if Blanton can put up better numbers than either Dan Haren or Ervin Santana, this deal will look a lot better 10 months from now.
My Grade: B (No, not B for Blanton, but B for average, which is the exact title this signing entails)

Cubs sign Nate Schierholtz to 1-year 2.25 million contract: I won't spend much time on this other than to say that my gut is telling me that Nate Schieholtz won't be a Cub come August, 2013. Nate was non-tendered by the Phillies after they received him in the Hunter Pence Deal. The Phillies need outfielders and didn't resign him, but did so to the chagrin of the Cubs. According to both PECOTA and Bill James' projections, Schierholtz is in line for a bounce-back season in which he'll probably provide league average offense form the outfield. From a fielding point of view, Schierholtz's range seems to be declining a bit in addition to his ability to make plays that average outfielders can't make. So, Wrigley Field could make Schierholtz look better than he is. If so, he will be moved at the trade deadline for some prospect that Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer most likely already have in mind.
My Grade: B+ (Can only be good for the Cubs, and for Schierholtz it didn't matter where he signed, he needs to put up good numbers to be coveted at all next offseason)

Ben Revere

Twins trade outfielder Ben Revere to the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for RHP Vance Worley and RHP Trevor May: This was the big move of the day. As a Phillies fan, expect me to spend some time analyzing this deal. Okay, so first from the Phillies side. Ruben Amaro has finally made a deal that makes logical sense. Ben Revere is a 24-year-old center fielder who is under team control through 2017. Given the fact that the Phillies current infield has an average age of 32.5 years old, adding a 24-year old isn't a bad idea. Next, take a look at these numbers:

	2011	2012
wRC+	71	88
wOBA	0.278	0.300
fWAR	2.0	3.4

Okay, something's wrong here. Revere has been worth an average of 2.7 wins over the last two years, but his run creation is below average in addition to subpar overall offensive productions. The reason for these odd numbers is that Revere does his work with his legs. Here's his "legs" numbers: 

	2011	2012
UZR	10.0	16.4
FRAA	-2.0	1.9
DRS	-3	8
SB	34	40
UBR	3.5	3.6
fWAR	2.0	3.4

Essentially, Revere is a defensive beast in center field, covering incredible amounts of ground, with average arm. In addition, when Revere reaches base he is a distinct threat to steal second, and even third. Revere's UBR shows that he runs the bases with solid aptitude and efficiency, something that fellow Phillies Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins have been doing for years. Revere gets on base at just above the league average (.333 in 2012), bunts for hits (34.6% BUH%), and makes contact at the plate (92.2% contact %). Essentially, Revere does everything you would want from a young leadoff hitter aside from his BB%. All Revere needs to do to become Michael Bourn at age 24 is to see some more pitches (3.61 pitches seen per plate appearance in 2012, which was 16 worst in the American League), and walk a bit more (5.2 BB% in 2012 compared to a league average 8.0% BB%). Often times though, plate discipline comes with maturity, and at 24 years old, we can expect Revere to mature a bit. From the Twins point of view, they have now traded 2 outfielders without power for 3 pitchers. Worley is a typical #4 starter, and will play well at Target Field, since he pitches to contact and the park in Minnesota is quite vast. Trevor May was considered the Phillies top-pitching prospect going into 2012, but the Phillies have a number of prospects similar to May, thus making Trevor expendable. The Phillies retain Brody Colvin, Jonathan Pettibone, and especially Jessie Biddle, and get an MLB ready, defensive stud in center field in return. Anyone in Philadelphia who is sad to see May go needs to look at themselves in the mirror because while May might end up as a #3 starter, the Phillies have more of those guys.

My Grade: A (The Phillies get exactly what they want, the Twins get a substantial return, it is a win-win)

Koji Uehara

Red Sox sign Koji Uehara to a 1-year $4.25 million contract: Koji Uehara spent the last two seasons in Baltimore and Texas, doing a good job out of the pen. Koji has sported an average of 1.7 wins per season over the last 4 seasons, which is fairly substantial for a relief pitcher given the minute number of innings relievers throw in comparison to starters. Uehara dominates right-handed batters, and fairs incredibly well against lefties due to his split-fingered change up. Here are Uehara's splits from last season: 

	FIP	BB/9	K/9	GB/FB
vs. LH	3.09	0.47	9.95	0.73
vs. RH	1.62	1.06	11.65	0.55

These numbers show that the Japanese reliever dominates righties by striking them out, and gets lefties out by playing to contact, a combination destined to produce good results out of the pen. I saw Uehara as one of the best relievers on the market, and based on this contract, if Koji puts up the same numbers in 2013 as he put up in 2012, the Red Sox will have gotten a solid deal.

My Grade: A- (Good deal for both teams, only issue is that teams who are more likely to be in playoff contention missed out on Uehara. If the Red Sox don't project to make the playoffs by the trade deadline, look for Ben Cherington to trade Uehara to a team in need.)

Braves resign OF Reed Johnson to a 1-year contract, financials unknown: Without the dollar amount given, the analysis cannot be as accurate, but I'll give it a whirl. Reed Johnson is the perfect 4th outfielder. He plays hard, is great in the clubhouse, and has been worth an average of ~ 1.1 wins per season throughout his 11 year career. The Braves have 2/3 of their outfield settled, and Johnson makes a great signing to platoon at that third third of the outfield. Johnson was originally acquired by the Braves via the Chicago Cubs along with Paul Maholm at the 2012 trade deadline, and the Braves saw enough to want to keep Johnson around. Johnson is the older form of Nate Schierholtz, and if the Braves have given him a similar contract, they are probably getting a good deal. The most interesting thing about Johnson is that, according to pitch f/x data, he doesn't have a problem hitting any pitch in the strike zone at an average rate. Oftentimes, batters are susceptible to pitches in certain parts of the plate, but Johnson seems to hit pitches all over the strike zone at the same rate (about 57%). This makes for a good pinch-hitter.

My Grade: B (Good for both sides, but not great.)

So, day 4 of the Winter Meetings didn't prove to be exciting, or even as exciting as the first three days. The Phillies/Twins trade proved to be the most interesting move of the day, and in all honesty, it wasn't mind blowing. The surprising part of that deal was Ruben Amaro's willingness to make a sensible move instead of a flashy move, something that should make Phillies fans happy, hopeful, but still a bit skeptical. Hamilton, Greinke, and Michael Bourn remain free agents, but there is a lot of offseason to go before pitchers and catchers report. Once Zack Greinke signs, the other pitchers on the market like Ryan Dempster, Anibal Sanchez, Kyle Lohse, and Shaun Marcum should sign quickly, but until Zack decides, those pitcher will most likely remain unemployed. 

The winter meetings this year were not filled with the huge moves of the past, which were replaced with ridiculous and constant rumors. Will Justin Upton be traded? My guess is yes, but never attempt to predict what Kevin Towers will do, he's proven to be unpredictable in the past. The winners of the winter meetings have to be the Boston Red Sox who have signed multiple players that could all be valuable in the next 2-3 years, which isn't an unreasonable timetable for the Sox to become relevant once again. Overall, it's been a fun 4 days, the hope is that the next 2 months will prove just as fascinating.

Winter Meetings: Day 1

Today was day 1 of the infamous winter meetings. For those of you unaware, Baseball's winter meetings occur every year around the first week of December. It is a week full of most of Baseball's executives, reporters, agents, and coaches who gather in a hotel to perform a number of activities. Front offices look to improve their clubs, agents look to get their clients signed to lucrative deals, coaches give interviews, and reporters disseminate the mounds of information they compile.

This year the winter meetings are being held in Nashville, Tennessee at the Gaylord Osprey Hotel and Convention Center. In the past, the meetings have lacked the fanfare that has more recently become commonplace, but due to the high profile free agents, infinite number of possible trades, and most importantly the MILLIONS, and I capitalize that word for a reason, of dollars thrown around, Baseball's Winter Meetings have become the event of the offseason.

So, let's recap a bit of the action we have already witnessed on just the opening day of the meetings.

Mike Napoli

Red Sox sign C/1B Mike Napoli to a 3-year $39 million contract: First, at this year's winter meetings, this is Ben Cherington's Red Sox, not John Henry's Red Sox. By that I'm implying that Cherington now has the reins to the Red Sox horse, music to the ears of Red Sox fans sick of signings like Carl Crawford. With Cherington making mostly autonomous decisions, his front office penned Mike Napoli to a three-year contract with an average annual salary of $13 million. Napoli played the last 2 years for the Texas Rangers, catching, playing a bit of first base, and DHing for Ron Washington's club. In 7 seasons, Napoli has been worth 20 wins according to Fangraphs, 16.8 wins according to Baseball-Reference, and 21.2 wins according to Baseball Prospectus. He's a versitile player, having the ability to both catch and play first base. The Red Sox already signed David Ross to a 2-year deal, and retain both Ryan Lavarnway and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, so why would the team make this deal? First, the Red Sox needed a first baseman, so if their plan is to have Napoli (-4 DRS at catcher, 0 DRS at 1st base) at first base, this seems like a good deal as far as that position is concerned. If the team expects Napoli to catch even 50 games, it points towards Cherington compiling as much catching talent as possible in a market where few catchers remain with numerous teams looking for catchers. Essentially, it allows the team to trade someone like Saltalamacchia or Lavarnway for a better return than they would regularly see. Napoli is a masher; he hits for power, and is patient at the plate (.248 career ISO, .356 career OBP). Bottom line is, the Red Sox got a solid player at a position they needed for a reasonable contract.
My grade: B+ (could become an A if the team can move Saltalamacchia for a decent prospect)

Pagan

Giants sign Angel Pagan to a 4-year $40 million contract: Pagan had been quite the enigma in Baseball circles in that he has previously been traded for Andres Torres, but he's also put up 3 seasons of 2.9 wins or more (Fangraphs). Due to the Giants recent World Championship, Pagan is far more a household name than before, but many might be surprised at a $10 million annual average salary for a center fielder that had to compete with Michael Bourn, Josh Hamilton, B.J. Upton, and Shane Victorino in the center field market this offseason. On the other hand, just like Upton's recent signing with the Braves, this contract looks like a perfect fit. Pagan is 31, and might not be playing center field in 2 seasons, but the value he adds by getting on base, and adding more than a .400 slugging percentage gives him the potential to easily be worth 2.0 wins per season, which is the number he must achieve to justify his new average annual salary. The Phillies and Giants were said to be the two main players for Pagan, and not too surprisingly, Pagan resigned with the world champions. The Giants got a player that could play two solid seasons in center followed by 2 Melky Cabrera-like seasons in either corner spot, while doing a great job setting the table at the top of the Giants lineup. Sure, Pagan is set to regress a bit over the next few years, but if he can put up even 75% of his average annual production, we will look back on this deal as a steal for San Fran.
My Grade: A- (good for player, good for team, only randomness can screw with this one)

Joakim Soria

Ranger sign Joakim Soria to a 2-year $8 million contract: The Rangers have recently made it a priority to sure up their bullpen. This has a lot to do with affects their starting pitchers feel from the immensely hitter friendly ballpark in Arlington, and the team's desire to get solid talent for reasonable prices despite the drastically inflated market for relievers. Soria is coming off of his 2nd, yes I said 2nd, not first, reconstructive UCL surgery (commonly know as Tommy John Surgery). Soria is a 28-year-old righty reliever who has never had a season in which he didn't post at least a WARP, rWAR, or fWAR less than 1.0. That might not sound like much, but given the fact that relievers throw 30% of the innings that starters do, being worth $5 million a season is nothing to sneeze at. What surprises me here is the length of the deal, Rarely do pitchers coming off any arm surgery get more than a one-year deal, but Soria got 2 years. This bodes well for fellow free agent reliever Brian Wilson (also coming off of TJ Surgery), but also shows that the Rangers think Soria will return to his previous form. The average annual salary of $4 million per season represents the concerns the Rangers have, but more so, it shows just how inflated the market for relievers has gotten. With pitchers like Jonathan Broxton and Brandon League getting incredibly inflated deals for their given skill sets, the Rangers would rather go after an injury plagued player than with upside than a proven reliever for way too much money. Maybe if every team didn't employ the ridiculous pitcher for an inning bullpen system none of this would have happened.
My Grade: B (could be great, could be awful, not a lot to lose for the Rangers either way)

James Loney

Rays sign James Loney to a 1-year $2 million contract: This deal intrigued me a lot. I recently wrote about Loney's potential to be a serious bounce back candidate for next season. He has continued to get on base and play good defense, two things the Rays look for in their players. Due to the hype surrounding Loney when he played in LA, most see his recent production as putrid as opposed to average. In order to satisfy this deal, Loney needs to be worth ~ 0.3 wins (Fangraphs) at the end of the 2013 season. Bill James projects him to post a .319 wOBA, with a .337 OBP, and .127 ISO. PECOTA sees Loney as a 1.5 WARP player next season (worth more than $8 million), with a .345 OBP, and .143 ISO. The Rays have little money to spend, and usually pursue improvements in their club via trade and not free agency due to those financial constraints (come on Rays fans, support your team). In this case, the Rays got a steal. In an offseason in which Loney was in the top 4 in the 1st baseman market, Tampa irked out a deal in which they will essentially pay Loney pennies. One thing is for certain, Loney will play above average defense at first base, something he has done almost every season he's played. With a number of ground ball pitchers, and good infield defense, this can only further's the Rays' ability to subdue opposing offenses, even when the ball is put in play. I projected Loney to make more than $6 million for next season at a 1-year deal. He's getting less than 1/3 of that money in this deal. My Grade: A (The only person unhappy with this deal is Loney's agent?)

For more on the winter meetings, I recommend following www.mlbtraderumors.com or checking out Ken Rosenthal, John Paul Morosi, Buster Olney, or Tim Kurkjian on Twitter. Come back tomorrow for a recap of day 2 of the winter meetings.

Non-Tenders

Recently I expounded on the idea of the qualifying offer. Baseball's offseason has so many intricacies, terms, and ideas that even an adept Baseball fan may not understand. The qualifying offer being one such term, and non-tendering being another. Recently teams made public the names of players that would be non-tendered, thus ending the relationship between the given team and those players, effectively making those players free agents.

Tendering a contract literally means offering a contract. So, a team that offers Zack Greinke, a free agent this offseason, a contract could be tendering him a contract. Players who have played out the first few years of their original contract (the one the player signed when drafted) become arbitration eligible. Essentially, in order to attempt to properly compensate young players who find themselves still years away from free agency, MLB put in a system in which the player and team present information to a third party who decided what that player's contract will be for the next season. It is done on a season-to-season basis, and some players can go through 4 years worth of arbitration before becoming eligible for free agency. Any player who is arbitration eligible must be tendered a contract by a specific date, which happens to be December 2nd this year. Any arbitration eligible player not tendered a contract becomes a free agent. Arbitration can be an expensive process for teams. Especially when a previously productive player is coming off of a less productive season because that player will most likely make more money in arbitration, due to his past performance. A team might want to retain that player, but not at the expected arbitration salary, so the team non-tenders the player, allowing him to become a free agent, then offer him a separate deal for less money.

The process can be complicated, especially given the fact that the arbitration process has many flaws incorporated into it. Since it is complicated, here is a simple rule. Teams non-tender players when the team would rather risk losing the player to another team than possibly pay them an exorbitant amount of money through arbitration.

Non-tendering a player can prove fruitful or fruitless. Sometimes the player in question will sign with another club and perform very well whereas other times non-tendering a player can be the best way to dump a declining or injury-prone player. Some names that came out on the non-tender list this offseason include John Lannan, Mark Reynolds, Ian Stewart, Jair Jurrjens, Jeff Karstans, and Brian Wilson. The common themes amongst these players are injuries, Karstans, Wilson, and Jurrjens, and declines in productivity, Lannan and Sterwart. If you want a more comprehensive list, and way to track players who have been non-tendered, tendered, et cetera, check out MLBtraderumors page here.

John Lannan

Where might some of these non-tendered players wind up? Between 2008-2011 John Lannan averaged 1.3 fwins (stands for fWAR), which is worth between $6-7 million on this years free agent market. Lannan was set to make about $5.5 million dollars in arbitration. The Nationals don't need Lannan in their rotation, and would rather use that money to fill a void elsewhere on the team. Between 08' and 11', Lannan was incredibly consistent, putting up FIPs between 4.20 and 4.80, BB % around 8%, and most importantly the 13th best ground ball percentage in the league. Lannan strikes out very few hitters, but makes up for his lack of swing-and-miss ability with pitches that cause lots of ground balls. Lannan throws four pitchers, a fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup. According to pitch f/x data, his changeup and curveball are solid to above average pitches, causing the ground balls, while Lannan's fastball and slider leave something to be desired. Combine Lannan with a good infield defense, and he could be worth anywhere from 1 win to 3 wins. Any team hoping to find a more suitable fifth starter should take a serious look at John Lannan. The Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies, and San Diego Padres could all be solid destinations for Lannan. Toronto has been rumored to be looking for an upgrade for J.A. Happ, while the Phillies might want a more experienced pitcher than Tyler Cloyd, and the Padres could turn Lannan into a great trade piece at the trade deadline.

Brian Wilson, known as "The Beard", put up a few productive years out of the San Francisco bullpen. With Sergio Romo taking his spot in the back end of the Giants bullpen, combined with Wilson's recent Tommy John surgery made Wilson an obvious non-tender candidate. Wilson is very valuable, but not in the typical way. Any team with money that is in need of a veteran cog in the bullpen could take a chance on Wilson, given his low cost, and Wilson's desire to prove himself. A team that might not be in contention next season could look to sign Wilson in order to flip him for prospects at the trade deadline in July. According to PECOTA, Wilson could be worth one WARP per season for the next three years. Any team that can sign Wilson to a one-year deal worth no more than $6 million could end up with a solid bargain. Look for the big clubs like Boston, Baltimore, Los Angeles (both LA teams), and Detroit to take a chance on Wilson.

Mark Reynolds

Finally, there's Mark Reynolds. Reynolds hit some big home runs for the Orioles last season, but with arbitration money in the realm of $10 million or more coming to him, the Orioles wisely non-tendered Reynolds. The issue with Reynolds isn't his incredibly high strikeout totals, but finding him a place to play. Reynolds rarely plays good defense at third base, his original position, and is below average at first base. Obviously, the American League offers an alternative to this, the designated hitter, but there are only 15 DH spots in the majors. The most logical spot would be Houston, a team moving from the NL to the AL, and thus in need of a designated hitter. On the other hand, it isn't difficult to find a hitter with pop who can't play defense, so instead of spending money on Reynolds, the obvious solution is to put a prospect in the DH role who costs far less money. Reynolds might be a possibility for the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays need a first baseman, and are not shy to put a home run hitter who strikes out often in that spot. Also, the Rays could DH Reynolds to take away from him negatively affecting their infield defense. Some team will take a chance on Reynolds, his power is undeniable, but whichever team does, would never have gotten that chance had the non-tender rule not been in place.

Now that you have a full understanding of non-tendering, when this time comes about next season you might be able to point to specific players who make good non-tender candidates and other that don't. Remember, oftentimes the most important pieces to a 25-man roster can come from the most remote of places, like the jungle of non-tendered players. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilsobr01.shtml

Line by Line, Brick by Brick

Giancarlo Stanton

In order for a building to stand without wavering, it must have support from the bottom all the way to the top. Often times when a structure seems unstable, it's time to knock it down and start from scratch. Sometimes that is the most cost effective way to solve the problem. Being able to spot an issue of instability before it comes to the surface can save time, money, and aggravation. The Miami Marlins had a number of motivations behind clearing their team of almost every big contract, even though the team signed 3 of those contracts not one year ago. Sure, some of the motivation is that Marlins owner, Jeffry Loria, wants to continue to collect his revenue sharing checks without paying money to his players in order to gain the largest profit margin possible. To Loria, his team can either profit from the fans that come out to see a winning team, the motivation behind signing Reyes, Buehrle, and Bell last offseason, or through revenue sharing and a minuscule payroll.

While Loria may be stuffing his pockets, while Major League Baseball looks the other way, the Marlins have traded away their best, and most expensive, players before and become winners once again. We've seen this movie, read this script, and know the way it works. (If you want a more detailed description of this process, read this article I wrote here) The Marlins recently traded Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, and Jose Reyes to the Blue Jays in exchange for a solid catch of prospects. In lieu of this so-called "mega deal", numerous writers, pundits, and fans expect the Marlins to look into trading Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton is still signed to his Minor League contract, so he's fairly cheap for a player who'se put up over 13 fWAR in his first 3 seasons in the Major Leagues. Oh, and did I mention he's only 23 years old?

Stanton is a true talent. He's the prototypical power hitting, middle of the order, masher who'se mere presence in the lineup can change the entire opposing team's game plan. He is big, fast, strong, and can hit the ball a mile, but he remains a Marlin. The Marlins have no need to trade Stanton because he's inexpensive, and by far their best current Major League player. On the other hand, following the trade between the Marlins and Blue Jays, Stanton remarked that given the fire sale, he wants to leave the Marlins as soon as he can. Basically, unless the Marlins can put a winning product out on the field in the next 2-3 seasons, Stanton won't even consider signing an extension, let alone, re-signing with the team when he becomes a free agent in 2017. From Stanton's point of view, this is not only reasonable, but necessary. Stanton wants to win and make heaps of cash, but due to his current contract, he won't that kind of money for a few years.

In my opinion, since the Marlins hold all of the cards in this situation, I don't see the team trading Stanton unless GM Michael Hill is blown away by the package in return. Since the team is currently rebuilding, Hill would want to receive top level prospects, at least one of whom is close to MLB ready. Any team that could successfully trade for Stanton would receive a player under team control for the next 4 seasons, who, according to PECOTA, is expected to produce an annual output of 4.1 WARP per season. Since 1 WARP is worth about $7 million dollars, any team paying Stanton under $28 million would be getting solid value.

To get a look at just how good Giancarlo Stanton has been, consider these facts. Since 1945 only three players have hit more home runs in seasons they played in which they were 20-22 years old than Stanton. They are Frank Robinson, Eddie Matthews, and Alex Rodriguez. Only 6 players had a higher wRC+ in the same seasons, and only 16 players had a higher total fWAR than Stanton in those seasons. Most impressively, Stanton had the highest isolated power of any player since 1945 in their 20 year old, 21 year old, and 22 year old seasons combined. Isolated power is slugging percentage minus batting average, and it usually peaks around 25 to 26 years old. At 23 years old, it isn't unreasonable to conclude that Stanton's power numbers could increase, and his high strikeout rate will decrease, making him quite the formidable hitter. Overall, the only current player with whom Stanton is similar is the Braves Jason Heyward, another young bright talent.

So far, the teams that have been linked to Stanton are the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies, and Chicago Cubs. Each team would likely need to give up its top prospect, as well as 2 others. So, here's what I think these teams would have to give up to procure Stanton from the Marlins.

Yankees: The Yankees traded Jesus Montero to the Mariners, but retain a strong and youthful Minor League system, ripe with a number of top prospects. Mason Williams and Manny Banuelos are probably the top hitting and pitching prospects respectively in the Yankees system. Catcher Gary Sanchez might be their top position player, but Williams should be ready to play in the big leagues before the young backstop. Banuelos is coming off of arm surgery, which drops a team's desire to trade for him, but his talent and productivity this far in the minors still makes him a great pickup. Even trading Williams and Banuelos wouldn't get the Marlins to give up Stanton, the Yankees would most likely have to add in a third prospect like Adam Warren, a solid pitching talent who has already thrown a few pitched in the Majors. If the Marlins asked for Brett Gardner, I'm sure the Yankees would have to think twice, but might trade Gardner too. The acquisition of Stanton would give the Yankees incredible meat in their order, and might give them offensive firepower equivalent, if not better than the Angels, Tigers, or Rangers. I'd ballpark the chances the Yankees have of acquiring Stanton at 1:25.

Red Sox: The Red Sox, like the Marlins are rebuilding, but in a different way. The Red Sox are willing to spend money, are always looking to win, and would love to solidify the middle of their order for years to come by trading for Giancarlo Stanton. If the Red Sox were to lose some top prospects, the team could fill those spots via free agency, or look towards winning in the near future rather than the distant one. The Sox system has some talent, especially after trading away some big contracts to the Dodgers in exchange for mostly prospects. A reasonable trade for Stanton would have to include Matt Barnes, Jackie Bradley, and Ruby De La Rosa, if not more. The only reason I'm not putting Xander Bogaerts, the Red Sox top prospect, in the deal is that the Marlins just received a top middle infield prospect in Adeiny Hechavarria from the Blue Jays, which makes Bogaerts less valuable. Even a package like the one I'm proposing might not be enough to sway the Marlins, but those three players could all become above average to dynamic MLB players. I would give the Red Sox 1:30 odds of landing Stanton.

Baltimore Orioles: This situation is vastly different from the first two. The Orioles have recently become viable in the AL East, want to continue that competitiveness, but count on their young players to help, making it more difficult to part with them. For example, the O's brought up top hitting prospect Manny Machado towards the end of 2012 to fill in at third base even though many thought Machado wouldn't be ready for another year. The Orioles currently have the top-pitching prospect in all of Minor League Baseball, Dylan Bundy. His stock will probably never be higher than it is now, but the Orioles would rather bring him up to become the ace of their rotation for the future than trade him. On the other hand, the O's won more than 90 games last season with a mediocre pitching staff, and adding Stanton would give them the power bat they so desperately need in their order. A package of Dylan Bundy and Jason Espisito might coax Miami into moving Stanton, but if the Orioles aren't willing to give up Bundy, they could also offer Jon Schoop, Kevin Gausman, LJ Hoes, and Bobby Bundy, but I doubt even that package would pry Stanton from Miami. If the Orioles are willing to trade Bundy their odds are good, 1:10, but if not, I'd say 1:60 they can acquire Giancarlo.

Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies used their top prospects a few years ago to obtain Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee (the first time), Roy Oswalt, and Hunter Pence, so their farm system is somewhat depleted. On the other hand, the Phillies have the potential to put together an enticing enough package. Stanton would give the Phillies a power right-handed bat in their small park at a small cost. Stanton plus the Phillies pitching staff could put the Phillies in a good position to win another championship. The Phillies have two ways of compiling the necessary goods to get Stanton. One possible trade would be top pitching prospects Trevor May and Jessie Biddle along with outfielder Zach Collier. Neither Biddle nor May are #1 starter material, but both have #2 potential, while Collier is a young, talented, but inexperienced outfielder who has the potential to be a 20 home run, 20 stolen base type player. Another option would be to trade Domonic Brown along with Trevor May and Austin Hyatt. The Phillies don't have the flashy, toolsy, top level prospect the Marlins would be looking for, but could fill out Miami's pitching prospects, a valuable commodity. I'd make their odds of landing Stanton 1:40.

Chicago Cubs: The Cubs are a team unlike any of those that I've already mentioned. This is a team that is also in complete rebuilding mode. Acquiring Stanton would be a nice coup, would secure sell outs at Wrigley, and might even get the Cubs closer to contending in the NL Central than the team is right now. Since many of the players the Marlins might want already play in the Majors, the Cubs do have more to lose than the O's, Yankees, Red Sox, or Phillies, but shouldn't be considered out of the running. A package deal of Brett Jackson, Jeff Samardzija, and Matt Zczur could do the trick. Jackson is ready to play right now, has shown he can hit MLB pitching, and could fill Stanton's spot in the Marlins order. Samardzija is already a very good MLB pitcher with the sky as his limit. He's also only 27 years old. The only players I could see Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer holding onto no matter what would be recently signed Cuban outfielder Jorge Solar and first baseman Anthony Rizzo, everyone else is on the table. Chances the Cubs get Stanton: 1:30.

Overall, I don't think the Marlins are going to trade Giancarlo Stanton this offseason, but given their recent moves, nothing is impossible when it comes to the fish. A dark horse candidate for acquiring Stanton could be the Tampa Bay Rays, given their amount of young pitching, but add in the recent contract extension given to Evan Longoria with Stanton's incoming arbitration eligibility, and the Rays might not be able to afford the right fielder. Also, don't count out the Rangers or Pirates. Stanton has a legitimate reason for requesting a one-way ticket out of Miami, but he's not in a great bargaining position. On the other hand, the Marlins could complete their rebuilding process by trading Stanton and acquiring 3-4 more prospects. One thing is for sure, never say never when dealing with the Marlins.