Winter Meetings: Day 1

Today was day 1 of the infamous winter meetings. For those of you unaware, Baseball's winter meetings occur every year around the first week of December. It is a week full of most of Baseball's executives, reporters, agents, and coaches who gather in a hotel to perform a number of activities. Front offices look to improve their clubs, agents look to get their clients signed to lucrative deals, coaches give interviews, and reporters disseminate the mounds of information they compile.

This year the winter meetings are being held in Nashville, Tennessee at the Gaylord Osprey Hotel and Convention Center. In the past, the meetings have lacked the fanfare that has more recently become commonplace, but due to the high profile free agents, infinite number of possible trades, and most importantly the MILLIONS, and I capitalize that word for a reason, of dollars thrown around, Baseball's Winter Meetings have become the event of the offseason.

So, let's recap a bit of the action we have already witnessed on just the opening day of the meetings.

Mike Napoli

Red Sox sign C/1B Mike Napoli to a 3-year $39 million contract: First, at this year's winter meetings, this is Ben Cherington's Red Sox, not John Henry's Red Sox. By that I'm implying that Cherington now has the reins to the Red Sox horse, music to the ears of Red Sox fans sick of signings like Carl Crawford. With Cherington making mostly autonomous decisions, his front office penned Mike Napoli to a three-year contract with an average annual salary of $13 million. Napoli played the last 2 years for the Texas Rangers, catching, playing a bit of first base, and DHing for Ron Washington's club. In 7 seasons, Napoli has been worth 20 wins according to Fangraphs, 16.8 wins according to Baseball-Reference, and 21.2 wins according to Baseball Prospectus. He's a versitile player, having the ability to both catch and play first base. The Red Sox already signed David Ross to a 2-year deal, and retain both Ryan Lavarnway and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, so why would the team make this deal? First, the Red Sox needed a first baseman, so if their plan is to have Napoli (-4 DRS at catcher, 0 DRS at 1st base) at first base, this seems like a good deal as far as that position is concerned. If the team expects Napoli to catch even 50 games, it points towards Cherington compiling as much catching talent as possible in a market where few catchers remain with numerous teams looking for catchers. Essentially, it allows the team to trade someone like Saltalamacchia or Lavarnway for a better return than they would regularly see. Napoli is a masher; he hits for power, and is patient at the plate (.248 career ISO, .356 career OBP). Bottom line is, the Red Sox got a solid player at a position they needed for a reasonable contract.
My grade: B+ (could become an A if the team can move Saltalamacchia for a decent prospect)

Pagan

Giants sign Angel Pagan to a 4-year $40 million contract: Pagan had been quite the enigma in Baseball circles in that he has previously been traded for Andres Torres, but he's also put up 3 seasons of 2.9 wins or more (Fangraphs). Due to the Giants recent World Championship, Pagan is far more a household name than before, but many might be surprised at a $10 million annual average salary for a center fielder that had to compete with Michael Bourn, Josh Hamilton, B.J. Upton, and Shane Victorino in the center field market this offseason. On the other hand, just like Upton's recent signing with the Braves, this contract looks like a perfect fit. Pagan is 31, and might not be playing center field in 2 seasons, but the value he adds by getting on base, and adding more than a .400 slugging percentage gives him the potential to easily be worth 2.0 wins per season, which is the number he must achieve to justify his new average annual salary. The Phillies and Giants were said to be the two main players for Pagan, and not too surprisingly, Pagan resigned with the world champions. The Giants got a player that could play two solid seasons in center followed by 2 Melky Cabrera-like seasons in either corner spot, while doing a great job setting the table at the top of the Giants lineup. Sure, Pagan is set to regress a bit over the next few years, but if he can put up even 75% of his average annual production, we will look back on this deal as a steal for San Fran.
My Grade: A- (good for player, good for team, only randomness can screw with this one)

Joakim Soria

Ranger sign Joakim Soria to a 2-year $8 million contract: The Rangers have recently made it a priority to sure up their bullpen. This has a lot to do with affects their starting pitchers feel from the immensely hitter friendly ballpark in Arlington, and the team's desire to get solid talent for reasonable prices despite the drastically inflated market for relievers. Soria is coming off of his 2nd, yes I said 2nd, not first, reconstructive UCL surgery (commonly know as Tommy John Surgery). Soria is a 28-year-old righty reliever who has never had a season in which he didn't post at least a WARP, rWAR, or fWAR less than 1.0. That might not sound like much, but given the fact that relievers throw 30% of the innings that starters do, being worth $5 million a season is nothing to sneeze at. What surprises me here is the length of the deal, Rarely do pitchers coming off any arm surgery get more than a one-year deal, but Soria got 2 years. This bodes well for fellow free agent reliever Brian Wilson (also coming off of TJ Surgery), but also shows that the Rangers think Soria will return to his previous form. The average annual salary of $4 million per season represents the concerns the Rangers have, but more so, it shows just how inflated the market for relievers has gotten. With pitchers like Jonathan Broxton and Brandon League getting incredibly inflated deals for their given skill sets, the Rangers would rather go after an injury plagued player than with upside than a proven reliever for way too much money. Maybe if every team didn't employ the ridiculous pitcher for an inning bullpen system none of this would have happened.
My Grade: B (could be great, could be awful, not a lot to lose for the Rangers either way)

James Loney

Rays sign James Loney to a 1-year $2 million contract: This deal intrigued me a lot. I recently wrote about Loney's potential to be a serious bounce back candidate for next season. He has continued to get on base and play good defense, two things the Rays look for in their players. Due to the hype surrounding Loney when he played in LA, most see his recent production as putrid as opposed to average. In order to satisfy this deal, Loney needs to be worth ~ 0.3 wins (Fangraphs) at the end of the 2013 season. Bill James projects him to post a .319 wOBA, with a .337 OBP, and .127 ISO. PECOTA sees Loney as a 1.5 WARP player next season (worth more than $8 million), with a .345 OBP, and .143 ISO. The Rays have little money to spend, and usually pursue improvements in their club via trade and not free agency due to those financial constraints (come on Rays fans, support your team). In this case, the Rays got a steal. In an offseason in which Loney was in the top 4 in the 1st baseman market, Tampa irked out a deal in which they will essentially pay Loney pennies. One thing is for certain, Loney will play above average defense at first base, something he has done almost every season he's played. With a number of ground ball pitchers, and good infield defense, this can only further's the Rays' ability to subdue opposing offenses, even when the ball is put in play. I projected Loney to make more than $6 million for next season at a 1-year deal. He's getting less than 1/3 of that money in this deal. My Grade: A (The only person unhappy with this deal is Loney's agent?)

For more on the winter meetings, I recommend following www.mlbtraderumors.com or checking out Ken Rosenthal, John Paul Morosi, Buster Olney, or Tim Kurkjian on Twitter. Come back tomorrow for a recap of day 2 of the winter meetings.

The Supermarket of Center Fielders

Slugger Josh Hamilton

A center fielder here, a center fielder there, center fielders everywhere. I know it sounds silly, but that little ditty describes the 2012-2013 free agent market with remarkable accuracy. Not only is this winter's market chock full of center fielders, but it's full of valuable ones. While there are very weak options at numerous other positions, outfield, and specifically center field has a number of great options. Some are flashy big name candidates like Josh Hamilton and Michael Bourn, and others are solid options with the potential for more like B.J. Upton and Angel Pagan.

Here is some general information on these 4 players:

	Age	Bats/Throws	Experience
Hamilton	31	L/L	6 Years
Upton	28	R/R	7 years
Bourn	29	L/R	6 Years
Pagan	31	S/R	7 Years

All 4 of these players are about the same age, and they have all played about the same number of MLB seasons. Angel Pagan offers the most versatility because he can hit from both sides of the plate, but rarely does sidedness change a team's decision on whether to sign a player or not. Let's go a little more in depth.

Best hitter: The best overall hitter amongst these players is Josh Hamilton. This shouldn't come as a surprise. Hamilton was the American league most valuable player in 2010. He is the only true power hitter of the bunch, notching the highest wRC+ at 140, and hitting for the highest wOBA at .387. Hamilton is a slugger, averaging about 33 home runs per season over the last three years. He easily has the highest ISO of this foursome at .292. Hamilton is the pure hitter of the bunch, and honestly, any team that signs him should seriously consider making him a corner outfielder that takes some reps as a designated hitter (pending he remains in the AL). Not only does Hamilton hit well, but he also gets on base, sporting the 2nd best BB% of these four at 9.4%. None of this is all that surprising. Hamilton is a middle-of-the-order hitter, Pagan and Bourn are best as leadoff hitters, and Upton is the lone enigma, sporting the best potential to hit both for power and to use his speed.

Michael Bourn

Best Fielder:

	FRAA	UZR	DRS
Hamilton	-1.5	-12.6	-9
Upton	-6.5	-2.4	-4
Bourn	0.4	22.4	24
Pagan	10.9	0.1	-6

When looking into fielding, metrics only tell some of the story. On the other hand, I've seen all four of these outfielders play, and the three distinct fielding metrics seen above tell the story very well. Michael Bourn is without a doubt the best fielder of this bunch. Bourn, along with Jason Heyward and Martin Prado made for the best combined defensive outfield in MLB last season. Atlanta is a larger than average sized park, giving Bourn a great deal of room to cover. Bourn's incredible speed, above average arm, and very good instincts make him the best current defensive center fielder, but speed diminishes quickly, and any team that signs Bourn to a long-team contract should know that Bourn probably won't be able to keep up this production in center field in the long-term. Interestingly, Baseball Prospectus' preferred defensive metric FRAA, values Angel Pagan higher than Michael Bourn. Fielding runs above average is not a zone-based metric, instead if looks at the plays made by the average defender at the given position and compares it to the plays made by the given player. Pagan's 10.9 is considered excellent, while Bourn's 0.4 puts him at about average. Due to the difference in calculation between these defensive metrics, a team looking to upgrade their defense in center field might see Pagan as a better short-term option as he combines average defense in terms of range and an excellent defender in terms of play-by-play comparison. 

Most Potential: The player with the most potential is definitely B.J. Upton. Upton is the youngest player of these four, with a great set of tools. Many think that Upton needs a change of scenery, as the Rays drafted him hoping for superstar potential, but he never lived up to the hype. Upton has averaged a 3.9 fWAR over his last 6 seasons, all leading up his prime years (27-32 years old). Upton has a very strong arm, great speed, and has shown the ability to hit for power. Upton's issues revolve around his high strikeout rate, ranging from 28.1% to 21.2% combined with his low walk rate, which has ranged from as low as 7% to as high as 15.2%. Josh Hamilton and Michael Bourn are clearly flashier candidates, but due to those two, Upton has the chance to fly under the radar. His relative youth, skill set, and consistently moderate productivity make him the player with the best chance to break out and become a star.

Angel Pagan

Best Value: 

	WARP	fWAR	rWAR
Hamilton	3.9	4.4	3.4
Upton	2.1	3.3	2.6
Bourn	3.7	6.4	6.0
Pagan	4.7	4.8	4.0

So, Josh Hamilton is the best hitter, Michael Bourn the best defender, and B.J. Upton has the most upside, but the best value at centerfield has to be Angel Pagan. Obviously, if a team is in need of a power hitter, the only choice is Hamilton, but looking at all four players objectively; Pagan provides the best overall package. From a hitting perspective, Pagan's .334 wOBA and 113 wRC+ put him second amongst these four players in both categories, and his .152 ISO was at league average for 2012. Pagan is a versatile player; he is a switch hitter, but can also bat in many spots in the batting order. He provides above average defense, and has proven he can play well in one of the largest parks in the Majors in San Fancisco. Pagan is 31 years old, so a long-term deal would not make sense, but he might provide the best overall value over the next 3 seasons in comparison to Hamilton, Bourn, and Upton. Upton is an unknown, Hamilton is one-dimensional and has had substance abuse problems in the past, while Bourn's game is based around speed, which diminishes rapidly as age increases. 

Best Fits:

Josh Hamilton is set to make a boatload of money. From the team perspective, his best value is in a 3 to 4-year contract, but with Hamilton looking of something more in the range of 7-8 seasons, it minimizes the number of good pairings. Teams that make the most sense for Hamilton are mid-major teams like Seattle, Baltimore, and Milwaukee. All three teams would most likely attempt to move him to a corner outfield spot, but that would be a solid career move for Hamilton to accept. 

Michael Bourn is a speedster, who will immediately upgrade a team's defense in the outfield, and solidify any team's leadoff spot in the batting order. Teams that make sense for Bourn are the Yankees, Nationals, Giants, and Dodgers. 

B.J. Upton

B.J. Upton is the most difficult player on this list to place. The biggest difficulty in signing Upton will be that any team to do so will most likely end up overpaying him. If we project Upton to continue to put up ~ 4.0 fWAR over the next 4 seasons, he would be worth about $80 million. On the other hand, insider Jon Heyman of CBS Sports projects Upton to sign a contract in the 5-year $60 million range. Teams that would fit Upton include the Phillies, Nationals, Rangers, Braves, and Dodgers.

Lastly, let's consider Angel Pagan. Pagan is a solid all around player. The only knock on him is that unlike these other 4 players, Pagan has only put up really good numbers in two out of his 7 seasons in MLB. Otherwise, Pagan is a great option, due to his offensive flexibility, defensive abilities, and experience. Unlike these other four center fielders, any deal Pagan signs will most likely be shorter-term and less expensive, thus he becomes a good option to a team looking to upgrade in center field without spending a lot of money. In addition, the Giants didn't make a qualifying offer to Pagan, meaning any team that signs him won't lose their first round draft selection. A good contract for both Pagan and the team that signs him would be in the area of 4 years worth about $45 million. Teams that make sense include the Phillies, Giants, Dodgers, Rangers, Braves, and Nationals. 

In the end, all four players are solid outfield options. The only things we truly know are that all four players will become very rich men, and, going into the 2013 season, four teams will have new center fielders.