Winter Meetings: Day 4

Ahhhh, the end of the week. Time to kick back, relax, maybe knock back a few. Well, maybe for most people. Those who remain in Nashville, Tennessee for Baseball's Winter Meetings see Thursday and Friday of this week as crunch time. Remember though, last year we were a bit spoiled. Huge names moved at last year's winter meetings, but this year the opposite happened. Josh Hamilton, still a free agent. Zack Greinke, still a free agent. Michael Bourn, still a free agent. Nonetheless, every day multiple moves were made, teams satisfied, players happy, and fans left shaking their heads. Let's check in on day 4 and see what went down.

"Big" Joe Blanton

Los Angeles Angels sign Joe Blanton to 2-year $15 million contract: This deal came in late last night. The immediate reaction on Twitter was that this deal was stupid, ineffective, and most likely an overpay. Blanton is what we in the business call an innings eater. He is effectively league average, but isn't injury prone, and doesn't implode to the point at which he has to be rushed off the field lest an arrant piece of flying fruit from an angry fan hits him in the face. Blanton throws strikes, plays to contact, and gets sneaky strikeouts with pitches like tailing fastballs and circle change ups. Given Blanton's makeup, there is one particular statistic to watch. That is BB/9. When Blanton isn't walking hitters, but instead pounding the strike zone, he provides his team much more value. Sure, he'll probably give up some more home runs, but a solo home run here or there isn't a bad thing when compared to 3-run home runs due to back-to-back walks. Blanton's title is back of the rotation starter, and with Jared Weaver and C.J. Wilson at the top of the Halos staff, that's all Jerry Dipoto is looking for from Big Joe. $7.5 million per season is a little steep, so I can't say the Angels did a sneaky-good job here, but if Blanton can put up better numbers than either Dan Haren or Ervin Santana, this deal will look a lot better 10 months from now.
My Grade: B (No, not B for Blanton, but B for average, which is the exact title this signing entails)

Cubs sign Nate Schierholtz to 1-year 2.25 million contract: I won't spend much time on this other than to say that my gut is telling me that Nate Schieholtz won't be a Cub come August, 2013. Nate was non-tendered by the Phillies after they received him in the Hunter Pence Deal. The Phillies need outfielders and didn't resign him, but did so to the chagrin of the Cubs. According to both PECOTA and Bill James' projections, Schierholtz is in line for a bounce-back season in which he'll probably provide league average offense form the outfield. From a fielding point of view, Schierholtz's range seems to be declining a bit in addition to his ability to make plays that average outfielders can't make. So, Wrigley Field could make Schierholtz look better than he is. If so, he will be moved at the trade deadline for some prospect that Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer most likely already have in mind.
My Grade: B+ (Can only be good for the Cubs, and for Schierholtz it didn't matter where he signed, he needs to put up good numbers to be coveted at all next offseason)

Ben Revere

Twins trade outfielder Ben Revere to the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for RHP Vance Worley and RHP Trevor May: This was the big move of the day. As a Phillies fan, expect me to spend some time analyzing this deal. Okay, so first from the Phillies side. Ruben Amaro has finally made a deal that makes logical sense. Ben Revere is a 24-year-old center fielder who is under team control through 2017. Given the fact that the Phillies current infield has an average age of 32.5 years old, adding a 24-year old isn't a bad idea. Next, take a look at these numbers:

	2011	2012
wRC+	71	88
wOBA	0.278	0.300
fWAR	2.0	3.4

Okay, something's wrong here. Revere has been worth an average of 2.7 wins over the last two years, but his run creation is below average in addition to subpar overall offensive productions. The reason for these odd numbers is that Revere does his work with his legs. Here's his "legs" numbers: 

	2011	2012
UZR	10.0	16.4
FRAA	-2.0	1.9
DRS	-3	8
SB	34	40
UBR	3.5	3.6
fWAR	2.0	3.4

Essentially, Revere is a defensive beast in center field, covering incredible amounts of ground, with average arm. In addition, when Revere reaches base he is a distinct threat to steal second, and even third. Revere's UBR shows that he runs the bases with solid aptitude and efficiency, something that fellow Phillies Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins have been doing for years. Revere gets on base at just above the league average (.333 in 2012), bunts for hits (34.6% BUH%), and makes contact at the plate (92.2% contact %). Essentially, Revere does everything you would want from a young leadoff hitter aside from his BB%. All Revere needs to do to become Michael Bourn at age 24 is to see some more pitches (3.61 pitches seen per plate appearance in 2012, which was 16 worst in the American League), and walk a bit more (5.2 BB% in 2012 compared to a league average 8.0% BB%). Often times though, plate discipline comes with maturity, and at 24 years old, we can expect Revere to mature a bit. From the Twins point of view, they have now traded 2 outfielders without power for 3 pitchers. Worley is a typical #4 starter, and will play well at Target Field, since he pitches to contact and the park in Minnesota is quite vast. Trevor May was considered the Phillies top-pitching prospect going into 2012, but the Phillies have a number of prospects similar to May, thus making Trevor expendable. The Phillies retain Brody Colvin, Jonathan Pettibone, and especially Jessie Biddle, and get an MLB ready, defensive stud in center field in return. Anyone in Philadelphia who is sad to see May go needs to look at themselves in the mirror because while May might end up as a #3 starter, the Phillies have more of those guys.

My Grade: A (The Phillies get exactly what they want, the Twins get a substantial return, it is a win-win)

Koji Uehara

Red Sox sign Koji Uehara to a 1-year $4.25 million contract: Koji Uehara spent the last two seasons in Baltimore and Texas, doing a good job out of the pen. Koji has sported an average of 1.7 wins per season over the last 4 seasons, which is fairly substantial for a relief pitcher given the minute number of innings relievers throw in comparison to starters. Uehara dominates right-handed batters, and fairs incredibly well against lefties due to his split-fingered change up. Here are Uehara's splits from last season: 

	FIP	BB/9	K/9	GB/FB
vs. LH	3.09	0.47	9.95	0.73
vs. RH	1.62	1.06	11.65	0.55

These numbers show that the Japanese reliever dominates righties by striking them out, and gets lefties out by playing to contact, a combination destined to produce good results out of the pen. I saw Uehara as one of the best relievers on the market, and based on this contract, if Koji puts up the same numbers in 2013 as he put up in 2012, the Red Sox will have gotten a solid deal.

My Grade: A- (Good deal for both teams, only issue is that teams who are more likely to be in playoff contention missed out on Uehara. If the Red Sox don't project to make the playoffs by the trade deadline, look for Ben Cherington to trade Uehara to a team in need.)

Braves resign OF Reed Johnson to a 1-year contract, financials unknown: Without the dollar amount given, the analysis cannot be as accurate, but I'll give it a whirl. Reed Johnson is the perfect 4th outfielder. He plays hard, is great in the clubhouse, and has been worth an average of ~ 1.1 wins per season throughout his 11 year career. The Braves have 2/3 of their outfield settled, and Johnson makes a great signing to platoon at that third third of the outfield. Johnson was originally acquired by the Braves via the Chicago Cubs along with Paul Maholm at the 2012 trade deadline, and the Braves saw enough to want to keep Johnson around. Johnson is the older form of Nate Schierholtz, and if the Braves have given him a similar contract, they are probably getting a good deal. The most interesting thing about Johnson is that, according to pitch f/x data, he doesn't have a problem hitting any pitch in the strike zone at an average rate. Oftentimes, batters are susceptible to pitches in certain parts of the plate, but Johnson seems to hit pitches all over the strike zone at the same rate (about 57%). This makes for a good pinch-hitter.

My Grade: B (Good for both sides, but not great.)

So, day 4 of the Winter Meetings didn't prove to be exciting, or even as exciting as the first three days. The Phillies/Twins trade proved to be the most interesting move of the day, and in all honesty, it wasn't mind blowing. The surprising part of that deal was Ruben Amaro's willingness to make a sensible move instead of a flashy move, something that should make Phillies fans happy, hopeful, but still a bit skeptical. Hamilton, Greinke, and Michael Bourn remain free agents, but there is a lot of offseason to go before pitchers and catchers report. Once Zack Greinke signs, the other pitchers on the market like Ryan Dempster, Anibal Sanchez, Kyle Lohse, and Shaun Marcum should sign quickly, but until Zack decides, those pitcher will most likely remain unemployed. 

The winter meetings this year were not filled with the huge moves of the past, which were replaced with ridiculous and constant rumors. Will Justin Upton be traded? My guess is yes, but never attempt to predict what Kevin Towers will do, he's proven to be unpredictable in the past. The winners of the winter meetings have to be the Boston Red Sox who have signed multiple players that could all be valuable in the next 2-3 years, which isn't an unreasonable timetable for the Sox to become relevant once again. Overall, it's been a fun 4 days, the hope is that the next 2 months will prove just as fascinating.

A Game of Dominoes

Denard Span

First the Braves signed B.J. Upton to a 5-year contract worth $75 million. Now the Nationals have traded for now former Twins center fielder Denard Span. Dave Cameron does a great job summing up the trade at Fangraphs, so I'll spare you the gory details. One thing Cameron makes note of is that the acquisition of Span means the Nationals now have surplus of outfielders. Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper will retain their spots, with Harper shifting to a corner spot, but it leaves no room for Michael Morse. Morse, who was acquired by the Nationals from the Mariners for Ryan Langerhans, has blossomed into a legitimate right-handed masher.

Michael Morse:

	Games Played	ISO	wRC+	wOBA	fWAR
2010	98	0.229	134	0.377	1.1
2011	146	0.247	148	0.390	3.3
2012	102	0.180	113	0.340	0.1

Michael Morse

Not only has Morse become a power bat, he's under team control for 2013 at a price of $6.75 million, an undervalued price if he puts up numbers similar to his recent past. The Nationals don't want to get rid of Morse, but now there is no room for him. Well, maybe not so fast. Morse has played 123 games at first base, and the Nationals currently have no first baseman.

	2012
	OF	1B
UZR	-21.9	0.5
DRS	-4	0

Looking at these numbers from 2012, from a fielding standpoint, Morse not only stops hurting a team when he plays first base instead of outfield, he helps the cause. So, what can we conclude? The simple answer here is, move Morse to first and move on to the next problem.

Nationals fans might be saying, "What about Adam LaRoche?" LaRoche played first base for the National last season, and he did it with extreme proficiency. At the plate, LaRoche posted a 3.8 fWAR that breaks down into a .361 wOBA, 127 wRC+, and a 6.1 UZR. LaRoche is a free agent with whom the Nationals have been in discussions with for a possible contract, but recently those discussions have begun to turn sour. In addition, the most recent news has the Red Sox in talks with LaRoche, another sign pointing towards the Nationals removing themselves from contention to sign him, and to simply move Morse to first permanently to replace the departed LaRoche. 

PECOTA sees LaRoche's 2012 as a bad predictor of his future numbers. According to the system developed by Nate Silver, LaRoche will post something close to 0.7 WARP over the next 3 seasons, with some wiggle room on either side. While LaRoche could be better than PECOTA predicts, he also present injury concerns, and at age 33 he isn't getting any younger. Also, first basemen are very replaceable given the relative ease that comes with playing the position, and the number of power hitters that occupy 1st base. 

So, what will be the next domino to fall? Upton's signing begot the trade for Span, and the acquisition of Span will beget something else. So, let's speculate. The Phillies are thought to be the next team to sign or make a deal for a center fielder in order to keep up with the Braves in the NL East, so could they be involved in the next deal? It would seem as though the options are dwindling for the Fightin' Phillies, but as a team with money to spend, the Phillies still have lots of options. The Phillies could spend big and pay for Josh Hamilton, spend less to acquire Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan, or Shane Victorino, make a trade for a center fielder like Peter Bourjos or Dexter Fowler, or acquire a player at a different position like third base, forcing the team to platoon John Mayberry Jr. and Nate Schierholtz in center field. 

The Braves made a clever and efficient move by grabbing the guy they want at a reasonable price, while the Nationals made a smart move by trading for a center fielder to solve a problem in center field as well as first base, now it's time to see what the Phillies can do to counter. Recently, I postulated that the Phillies should fill the void in center field by trading for the Rockies Dexter Fowler. As of now, I would expand that list to include Angels' outfielder Peter Bourjos. By filling the hole via trade, the Phillies should then sign Nick Swisher to a reasonable contract. Swisher, Fowler/Bourjos, and Domonic Brown roaming the confines of Citizens Bank Park's outfield would be the counterpunch. 

Peter Bourjos

How do Trevor May and Zach Collier for Peter Bourjos sound? On paper it isn't a bad deal for either the Phillies or the Angels. Bourjos is essentially Denard Span, but a little younger, and slightly less expensive. The Angels have a center fielder named Mike Trout; maybe you've heard of him, who makes Bourjos expendable. If the Angels can't can't sign Zack Greinke, having another young pitching prospect in the form of Trevor May can't hurt. The Angels clear more payroll, the Phillies get a solid defensive center fielder with speed who projects to put up and average of 1.7 WARP over the next 4 seasons, and the Phillies have found the proper retaliatory response to the Nats and Braves' moves. 

The offseason can be a mix of a chess match, boxing match, and poker hand all at once. The number of influences on a team that can manipulate the decisions made are vast, and always growing, putting every team on higher alert every successive year. With the winter meetings coming up, a number of free agents are set to sign deals, and many more trades are prime to come about, hopefully including a response from the Phillies.  

Two Outfield Trade Candidates: Josh Willingham

Yesterday I wrote about a good candidate to be traded this offseason in Cleveland Indians outfielder Shin-Soo Choo. Today I am going to perform a similar analysis on another outfielder who could be traded, the Minnesota Twins' Josh Willingham. Willingham, or "The Hammer", is a 33 year old left fielder who signed a 3-year $21 million contract with the Twins last offseason. He has two years remaining on his current deal, which is set to pay him $7 million per season. Let's find out a little more about Josh.

Willingham began his career with the Florida Marlins, but in 2008 the Marlins traded him to the Washington Nationals. On average, since 2009, Willingham has proven to be a worth more than 2.5 fWAR.

	fWAR	rWAR	WARP
2009	2.5	2.3	3.2
2010	3	2.6	2.1
2011	2	2.1	2.9
2012	3.9	2.9	4.5

 As you can see, while Willingham does not provide all-star caliber numbers every season, he is consistently solid. Other outfielders with similar fWAR numbers since 2009 include Andre Ethier, Cory Hart, and Adam Jones. The next logical question is, how does Willingham provide value? What would a team, willing to trade for him, be getting?

Josh Willingham has never, and will most likely never be a great defender. He isn't very fast, and won't steal many bases. Most of what he provides a team comes from his offensive abilities. Take a look at these numbers. 

	Tav	wOBA	wRC+
2009	0.296	0.375	129
2010	0.299	0.375	132
2011	0.305	0.350	122
2012	0.312	0.380	143

Tav stands for true average, which is Baseball Prospectus' way of improving the statistic of batting average. It is scaled similarly, but incorporates other aspects like reaching base by error when calculating the average. It is a linearly weighted average, and adjustments are made in the calculation to factor for parks and league. Willingham has been consistently great at producing runs. He has high Tav, wOBA, and wRC+ showing a well-rounded approach at plate. As you can see below, Willingham produces both by getting on base as well as hitting for power. 

	HR	R	OBP	ISO
2009	24	70	0.367	0.237
2010	16	54	0.389	0.192
2011	29	69	0.332	0.232
2012	35	85	0.366	0.264

In the last 4 seasons Willingham ranks 12th amongst all outfielders in wOBA, a metric that does a great job portraying a players' overall offensive contribution. His 104 home runs since 2009 rank him 9th amongst all outfielders, just behind 2012 free agents Josh Hamilton (110) and Nick Swisher (105). In addition, he ranks 12th amongst outfielders in BB%, while striking out at about an average rate. From a hitting perspective, Willingham, despite his age, is a jewel. Due to his versatility to both get on base and hit for power, Willingham can bat in any spot in the order from 2nd all the way to 6th and be productive from each spot. 

Defensively, Willingham plays a low-key position. Amongst the three outfield positions, center field and right field are deemed as more defensively difficult positions to play. Players who are great defenders are put in center field, those with slightly less defensive ability but still good arms are put in right field, while outfielders who hit far better than they field usually end up in left field. That isn't to say that left field is similar to the designated hitter, but it isn't as important to be a superb defender when playing left field. Here are some of Willingham's defensive numbers since 2009.

	UZR	DRS	FRAA
2009	-5.7	-4	1.9
2010	-1.9	1	-9.2
2011	-5.4	0	-3
2012	-7.9	-13	4.8

 From a range perspective, Willingham fails due to his lack of speed. He can't cover nearly as much ground as better fast fielders so bloop hits fall in front of him, gappers get by him, and he isn't jumping over the wall to take away home runs. On the other hand, Willingham has a decent arm, and Baseball Prosepctus' defensive metric FRAA has twice in the last 4 seasons shown him to be above average at making the plays necessary to make in left field. In addition, it is important to note that in 2011 and 2012 Willingham played in big ballparks in Oakland and Minnesota, which can be tougher for outfielders who that slower. This may have contributed to his consistently negative UZR numbers. 

Since 2009 Willingham has earned just over $20 million dollars, but according to Fangraphs, he has been worth four times that amount. Outperforming one's contract by 4x is incredible, it shows that Willingham has continued to exceed expectations, a sign of a player who continues to work on his craft, a quality that cannot be underemphasized. If Willingham puts up between 4-6 fWAR over the next two seasons, he would be worth between $18-$27 million but, he is only set to be paid $14 million over the next two seasons combined. In addition, if Willingham's production drops, any team that trades for him will be rid of him by 2015, a reasonable bargain.  

So, now that we know what he brings to a team, and that he has been quite undervalued throughout his career, we have to ask ourselves one important question. Why would the Twins want to trade Josh Willingham? Well, the Twins haven't been a very good team the last two seasons, and they signed Willingham to a deal last winter partially hoping that if they continued to lose more than they won, he would be a perfect trade candidate. The Twins need to rebuild with young players, and they especially need pitching. So, any team willing to give up a B level pitching prospect or two could swipe Willingham and his affordable contract without an issue. 

Teams that should seriously consider trading for Willingham include the Phillies, Braves, Rays, Orioles, and Reds. 

As I articulated yesterday, the Phillies need outfield help, whether it be at a corner outfield spot or in center field. Domonic Brown will most likely play in one spot, but the other two are uncertain. Trading for Willingham would give the Phillies a power hitting right-handed bat that gets on base who can protect slugger Ryan Howard. In addition, he would break up the lefties in the middle of the Phillies order so if opposing teams bring in lefty specialists to get them, they would have to deal with Willingham and his .384 wOBA off of lefties last season. They don't have much in the farm system, but if Ruben Amaro wants to win next season, Willingham would be a great low cost, high reward player. He is a better version of Pat Burrell at a much lower cost.

Chipper Jones has retired. It opens up a hole at third base for the Atlanta Braves. If the Braves want to, they can fill this hole by moving 2012 left fielder Martin Prado to third base. He has played there before, and, especially in the current market, it is easier to find a replacement in the outfield than at third. The Braves, have three young pitchers that the Twins would want including Julio Tehran, Randall Delgado, and Mike Minor. My guess is that Minor is off limits, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Braves would be willing to part with Delgado or Tehran in order to claim Willingham. The Braves need to replace Jones' offensive production, especially given Brian McCann's recent offensive woes, and Willingham could do just that.

The Tampa Bay Rays are the perfect fit for Josh Willingham. The Rays have phenomenal pitching, and they have a bunch of it. The team recently brought back James Shields, and continues to produce great young pitchers like Alex Cobb and Matt Moore. Most importantly, the Rays need to upgrade their meek offense, but as usual, do so at a low cost. A trade that sent Rays righty Jeremy Hellickson to the Twins for Josh Willingham might be exactly what both teams need. Hellickson is a pitch-to-contact righty who is young, has MLB experience, and even won the AL rookie of the year award in 2011. He would be perfect pitching in Target Field, and the would immediately upgrade the Twins rotation at very little cost. The Rays have a need for Willingham and the necessary trade pieces to make this deal happen. Willingham's $7 million/season contract is a bit on the high side for a team like the Rays, but if they simultaneously dealt lefty David Price, it could lead to some serious payroll relief.

The argument for the Orioles is simple. The team needs better offensive production. They cannot count on Chris Davis to be as hot from the plate as he was towards the end of last season, and Willingham would provide a steady presence in their lineup. An outfield consisting of Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Josh Willingham would give the O's stability in the middle of their order, and another solid veteran presence on a young team. Willingham has played in the area before, and might like a change of scenery from cold Minnesota to warmer Baltimore. 

The Reds two best hitters are both lefties. Joey Votto and Jay Bruce provide a lot of umph in the middle of the Reds order, but if the Reds were to add Willingham to the bunch, it would allow Dusty Baker to split the two lefties up in the lineup. Ryan Ludwick was a revelation for the team last season, but he has been very up and down the last few seasons, and cannot be counted on to have a repeat performance. Home run friendly Great American Ballpark would be an upgrade for Willingham. He was able to 35 home runs in the much bigger Target Field, so his production should go up playing more in the warmer air and smaller confines of Great American Ballpark. The issue here is if the Reds have what it takes to land Willingham. They recently traded prospects to get Mat Latos, Jonathan Broxton, etc... so while Willingham makes sense in Cincinnati, I'm not sure they can pony up enough to acquire him.

In the end, I think Willingham ends up in Tampa Bay. The Rays almost make too much sense here. They need a low cost power bat, have exactly what the Twins are looking for in return, and due to cost concerns have little choice to upgrade vio free agency. This deal would make sense for both teams. The Rays have so much good young pitching, I can see three possible deals unfolding. 

Deal 1) Twins send Josh Willingham and $2 million to the Rays in exchange for RHP Jeremy Hellickson

Deal 2) Twins send Josh Willingham to the Rays in exchange for RHP Wade Davis

Deal 3) Twins send Josh Willingham to the Rays in exchange for RHP Chris Archer

If the Twins are serious about rebuilding, they need to trade players like Josh Willingham, and do so before he becomes less attractive. Teams like the Rays, Phillies, and Braves need someone like him, so watch out for an upcoming deal. Most importantly, remember that in this offseason where more than 100 free agents will sign new contracts, sometimes it's better to upgrade via trade.