King of The Hill

Felix Hernandez

Yesterday USA Today reported that the Seattle Mariners and ace pitcher Felix Hernandez have agreed to a 7-year $175 million contact. Felix's previous contract wasn't set to expire for two more seasons, but his new contract doesn't extend on top of those two years, instead it modifies the next two seasons and adds 5 more. The aspect of this news that stands out the most is that Felix Hernandez, at 26 years old, is now the highest paid pitcher of all time. The previous high for AAV for a pitcher was the recently signed Zack Greinke. His contract with the Dodgers was set to pay him $24.5 million annually, but after 2 years of Hernandez's deal, Felix will be receiving $25 million annually.

So, did Felix Hernandez deserve this contract, and if so, why did he sign it, and why did the Mariners offer it? First, Felix deserves to be paid like a top 5 pitcher because his numbers prove it. Felix has played 8 seasons in the Majors, all for the Mariners, coming up as a 19 year old, and immediately began throwing 190+ innings in only his second season in the Majors. Hernandez, like many young ace pitchers, came in throwing in the mid 90's with his fastball, showing sharp breaking balls including a slider with velocities peaking above 90 mph. Comparing heat maps of Hernandez's pitches from early in his career to his most recent seasons shows a move from pitches near the middle of the plate to the corners. Hernandez's does a great job of keeping his pitches low and away to righties and on the inside corner to lefties, the perfect combination for pitching success. This maturity on the mound has shown in King Felix's numbers as well. Due to his improved precision and strategy, Felix's BB/9 has been getting steadily less and less since peaking in 2008. While Hernandez's ground ball percentage has been seeing some attrition, Felix has countered it with an increase in strikeouts while his swing percentage (the total percentage of pitches a batter swings at) has remained constant, showing better control and precisions despite drops in velocity and number of ground balls induced.

Hernandez's statistics have been following the typical age curve for a starting pitcher as constructed by the good people at Fangraphs.com. As you can see, velocity should begin to trend down around age 27, but FIP, BB/9, and K/9 should all remain constant until age 29 or so when the edges begin to fray. This graph is meant to generalize the production of starting pitchers over time, it doesn't take into account that Hernandez, who has huge amounts of talent, may age better than the average or even above-average pitcher. The Mariners weren't completely trusting in Hernandez's ability to age like Greg Maddux, not giving him a 7-year extension, but adding 5 years onto the already guaranteed 2 years from his previous contract. This decision shows that the Mariners understand that even the best pitchers reach stumbling blocks after they turn 31 years old. On the other hand, if there was a pitcher or two I would be counting on performing at a high level will into his thirties, Felix Hernandez is near or at the top of my list. In his career Hernandez has shown an ability to stay healthy and stay on the field. He's thrown over 200 innings 5 of his 8 MLB seasons, from 2008-2012. Hernandez has reaching the disabled list twice in his career, in 2007 and 2008, which isn't unreasonable as his innings work load had just increased dramatically, a change that commonly leads to some arm issues.

Now that I've answered whether Felix Hernandez was worth the money and years in this deal, now let's talk about why King Felix would sign this contract. First, the money is on the table now. Hernandez, like all other athletes know that once their careers in professional sports end their income will fall drastically, so they go for the most money and for financial security whenever they can during their careers. Hernandez had two years remaining on the 5-year $78 million contract he signed in 2010, taking him through his arbitration eligible years. He could have played out those seasons in Seattle and then explored his options, and there would be many, on the free agent market as a 28 year old, but instead Felix resigned with the team that scouting him, drafted him, developed him, and has treated him as well as a team that has won recently can. Seattle has been a team never lacking a franchise player, loved in the city, no matter the Mariners winning percentage. In the 90's the team had Ken Griffey Jr., between 2000 and 2012 it was Ichiro Suzuki, and with this new contract, the torch has officially been passed to Felix Hernandez. Hernandez is loved by the city of Seattle, when he starts at home; Mariners fans in right field count his strikeouts, calling themselves the King's Court. In addition, Seattle, while not New York or Boston, is a fairly metropolitan city, ranking 22nd in population according to the most recent census data.

Another reason for hope in Seattle, and thus another justification for Felix resigning in the Emerald City, is Seattle's incredible group of young talent. ESPN's Keith Law recently ranked Seattle as having the 8th best farm system in the league with a solid core of young starting pitchers like Taijaun Walker, James Paxton, and Danny Hultzen. In addition, they sport a top infield prospect in Nick Franklin, young catching prospect Mike Zunino, and young players already with the big club like Jesus Montero, Michael Saunders, Kyle Seager, and Dustin Ackley. So, maybe the Mariners won't be a winning team this season or even next season, but just around the time Hernandez's AAV goes from $20 to $25 million the Mariners should have the type of team ready to compete for the playoffs. This shows that Hernandez has faith in the Mariners system, and when the face of the franchise shows confidence in the team, the fans won't be far behind.

So, while Felix may have given up a chance to make maybe more money in a bigger city like Boston or Chicago, and might have lessened his chances of winning a World Sereis, there were numerous solid justifications for resigning with the Mariners. So, the only question left to answer is the simplest, why the Mariners would offer Felix a contract of this length and magnitude. The Mariners aren't a big time franchise, but the team has never had a problem spending money on free agents, a la Chone Figgins. In addition, Hernandez will now make up 20% or more of Seattles overall payroll. We've recently seen how big contracts can still force the hands of the richest teams as with the Alex Rodriguez situation with the Yankees. The Mariners may be extending a lot of money to Felix, but as we've already proven, he's worth the money. The Mariners have most of their future success tied up in youth, and you is inexpensive. This paradigm is conducive to having a large portion of the payroll going to one or two players because young players are cheap. Signing Hernandez allows the Mariners to now change their marketing strategy to make King Felix a brand, a name that every citizen of Seattle knows. Given Seattles solid history of rabid fandom and passion for the Mariners, the team will have little trouble anointing Felix Hernandez the next Sultan of Seattle.

Justin Verlander

So, this deal looks good, it benefits the player, the team, and the fans, but what does it mean for the rest of the league? Baseball is a business and in Hernandez's contract changes the landscape of the market just like Zack Greinke's did before this and Cole Hamel's deal did before that. Two of the top 3 pitchers in the league have contracts ending in two years, and without a doubt King Felix's new deal will affect both of their next contracts. Clayton Kershaw, currently 24 years old, and Justin Verlander, currently 29 years old. Verlander has been the best pitcher in Baseball since 2009; he won an MVP and Cy Young award with the Tigers, and has brought them to two World Series. He may get similar AAV to Felix Hernandez, in fact he may get a little more, but he won't get a 7-year deal. At his age a 5-year contract would be the most I would go.

Name	Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA	FIP	WAR
Justin Verlander	Tigers	953.2	9.22	2.37	0.73	2.95	2.93	28.6
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	954	8.43	2.49	0.61	2.81	3.03	24.2
Zack Greinke	- - -	833.1	8.9	2.21	0.71	3.37	2.93	23.5
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	836.1	9.41	3.11	0.55	2.6	2.87	20.8

Clayton Kershaw

As for Kershaw, Hernandez's contract impacts him greatly. If Kershaw wants an extension now, he could get a deal similar to Hernandez due to his youth and his already stellar career. On the other hand, if Kershaw plays through his current deal becomes a free agent at age 26, Kershaw could sign a contract of similar length to Hernandez but for even more AAV. That would seem like the most lucrative path for Kershaw, but if the native Texan wants to stay with the Dodgers, and like Jared Weaver with the Angels, not want to deal with contract speculation, he could sign an extension now and still get a second huge deal around his age 30 season. Overall, the Dodgers have a lot of money, holes burning in their pockets, and so one way or the other, Kershaw will make a lot of money, most likely in Los Angeles.

So, while $175 million sounds like a huge amount of money, and it is, we now see that the money is justified, for all parties involved. Felix Hernandez and the Seattle Mariners now go hand-in-hand; Felix represents the city, similar to the Mariners greats before him. In 2011 he won the AL Cy Young award, in 2012 he threw a perfect game, now he's the highest paid pitcher of all time, and, as all Mariners fans hope, he will be a World Champion down the road. If there was ever a more perfect road to Cooperstown, I haven't heard of it yet. Now comes the hard part, everything just has to work out. 

Every Move Counts

Generally in the Baseball offseason, the slowest time for transactions happens over the holidays, Christmas and New Years. General Managers and their staffs want to spend time with their family and friends, as do the players, agents, and their respective loved ones. So, the hot stove cools, and the fans (and pundits) are left with little to talk about. On the other hand, the entire industry does not come to a halt. Free agents still negotiate deals, trades are proposed, and players move from team to team. Here are some of the latest free agent signings.

Cody Ross

Diamondbacks sign OF Cody Ross to a 3-year $26 million contract: 
Where did this come from? Jason Kubel, Justin Upton, Gerrardo Para, Adam Eaton, and A.J. Pollock. This is the list of outfielders the Diamondbacks had at their disposal before signing outfielder Cody Ross to a 3-year contract. This, all after trading center fielder Chris Young to the Oakland Athletics. Basically, the Diamondbacks have stock piled the largest arsenal of outfielders we've ever seen. They have rookies, veterans, lefties, righties, power-hitters, speedsters, great defenders, and poor defenders. Missing an outfielder? If so, call Kevin Towers because anyone who doesn't play in the infield now resides in the desert. The reasons behind the Dbacks' decision to sign Cody Ross remain speculative at best. It puts the team in a position to keep all of these players, trade one, or trade more than one. The Diamondbacks play in hitter friendly Chase Field, which means they need a solid defensive outfield to take away opposing teams' hits, and great hitters to take advantage of the offensively-friendly confines.

Cody Ross is an interesting pickup. He's a right-handed hitting corner outfielder whose career has been above average, but nothing to call your mother about. In the last 3 seasons his numbers have followed his batting average on balls put in play. BABIP is a statistic that centers around a mean of .300, with exceptions for hitters that make their living purely on making contact with the ball.

	BABIP	Slash Line	wOBA	fWAR
2010	0.324	.269/.322/.413	0.322	2.3
2011	0.279	.240/.325/.405	0.321	1.0
2012	0.317	.267/.326/.481	0.345	2.4

When Ross' luck is better, his overall performance seems to improve, but when he hits balls in play at fielders, his production falters. Ross also has fairly distinctive righty/lefty splits. In his career, Ross's wRC+ against lefties is 141, well above the league average, but a meek 92 against righties. While Ross's offensive production falls in every category when looking at his splits vs. righties, his slugging percentage scuffles the most. In his career, Ross slugs .415 against right-handed pitchers, but a fantastic .575 against lefties. This split shows that Ross will play when a lefty takes the mound against the snakes. So, given his splits, it would seem that Ross would be a perfect fit for a platoon, but you may be wondering why a team would want to pay a player more than $8 million AAV to platoon with another player when a similar platoon option like Scott Hairston remains a free agent. Hairston comes at a cheaper cost, and there is no need to lock him up for multiple years, but the Diamondbacks probably preferred Ross to Hairston due to their difference in defensive ability. Cody hasn't been a star defender, but he's put up positive defensive runs saved and ultimate zone rating numbers since in his career. He plays the corner spots much better than the defensively demanding center field, and he played much better in the smaller Fenway Park outfield than the expansive outfield in San Francisco. Ross is only getting older, which means slower, but given his splits, the Diamondbacks won't be counting on Ross for defensive perfection in every game. PECOTA expects Ross to be worth about 5.7 WARP for the duration of his contract in Arizona, but given his new home field, we might see more offensive production. Overall, this signing seemed crazy on the outset, but looks more and more genius as I delve deeper.

My Grade: B+ (As I said before, the Diamondbacks seemed stupid in making this deal, but when analyzing it, Ross looks like a fit in Arizona. The team could make serious upgrades at other positions by trading an outfielder. Most think Jason Kubel is the perfect candidate, but don't count out the team moving Justin Upton in a blockbuster deal.)

Brewers sign LHP Mike Gonzalez to a 1-year $2.25 million contact:
In 2012, the Brewers had one of the worst bullpens in Baseball. Given the Brewers' situation, the main goal this offseason had to be an upgrade in their relief core. The team's offense remains almost untouched, and their starting pitching has some youngsters looking to continue early career success. Recently the team signed lefty Tom Gorzelanny to a multi-year contract, and now Doug Melvin has inked fellow lefty and former Nat Mike Gonzalez to a 1-year contract. The Brewers relievers ranked 10th worst in Major League Baseball in wOBA against lefties last season, and 10th worst in home runs given up against left-handed batters. That, combined with the numerous left-handed hitters with power in the NL Central, made the Brewers go looking for some affordable upgrades in that department. Think about it, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Mike Rizzo, Pedro Alvarez, and Shin-Soo Choo all play in the NL Central. With hitters like that, the Brewers have to have a counter punch out of their bullpen, especially given those hitters' particular ability to hit the ball out of the ball park. Gonzalez has been solid his entire career, throwing from an over-the-top angle, but with a very "arms and legs" delivery. That means that his delivery isn't compact or simple, but instead has lots of moving parts that distract the hitter, in an attempt to keep the ball hidden from the hitters' eyes. Gonzalez has a higher career K%, lower career BB%, and drastically higher ground ball percentage against lefties than righties, making him the perfect lefty specialist coming out of Milwaukee's bullpen. At only $2.25 million, the Brewers found an affordable lefty reliever. What more could they ask for?
My Grade: A (I can't find a downside to this deal. It doesn't make the Brewers contenders, but it's a minor move that will prove important in division play.)

Indians sign RHP Brett Myers to a 1-year $7 million contract:
So, Brett Myers is sort of a weird player. He has twice moved from the starting rotation to the bullpen, and now for a second time will move back to the rotation. Most pitchers would rather start than relieve, and Myers probably turned down some offers to pitch out of the bullpen in order to sign with the Indians. The Tribe looks to be filling rotation spots with cheaper veterans rather than promote prospects. This comes from a lack of MLB ready, or close to MLB ready pitching prospects. The team recently traded for Trevor Bauer, and he will compete for a rotation spot, but most likely, if he doesn't impress, Bauer will begin the season in triple A. Myers is a solid innings eater, a solid #5 or possibly #4 starter who isn't flashy, but gets you through 6 innings of work most of the time. When tagged as a starter, Myers has thrown at least 190 innings in every season but one. That consistency combined with a very sparse injury history, and a low price tag made Myers the perfect target for the Indians. He has a typical four-pitch arsenal of fastball, curveball, slider, changeup, with the curveball acting as his best strikeout pitch. Myers has shifted from the four-seam fastball to a sinker in recent years, causing his ability to induce ground balls to go up in the latter half of his career. Myers has learned some better control recently, lowering his BB% from 2 to 3 percentage points in the last 3 seasons. The Indians aren't looking for anything spectacular from Myers, but they also aren't paying him for more than a 1.0 WARP value. If the Indians fall out of the playoff picture by the trade deadline, look for Myers to be dealt as he isn't owed very much money, and isn't signed past 2013.
My Grade: B (This deal isn't special. If the Indians perform well, Myers looks like a steal at $7 million, but if they falter, he might garner a utility infield prospect.)

Rangers sign RHP Jason Frasor to a 1-year $1.5 million contract:
The Rangers lost two important cogs in their bullpen this offseason. Both Mike Adams, now a Phillie, and Koji Uehara, now in Boston, moved eastward away from balmy Arlington for colder pastures. In addition, Neftali Feliz looks to have made a permanent move to the starting rotation, and Alexei Ogando could find himself a starter in 2013 as well. The Rangers already added righty Joakim Soria earlier this offseason, but this deal is different. Soria pitches well against both righties and lefties, making him valuable enough to sign a multiyear contract for $8 million. Frasor has a lot of difficulties getting lefties out (4.06 career FIP), but fairs better than average against right-handed hitters (3.60 career FIP). At $1.5 million, Frasor could put up similar numbers to his 2012 campaign and still be worth this contract. Look for the Rangers to possibly add one more reliever to sure up their bullpen. Texas starters Colby Lewis and Neftali Feliz are both coming back from Tommy John surgeries, with Lewis expected back mid-season and Feliz towards September. These injuries force Alexei Ogando into the rotation and leave a hole in the bullpen, one that Frasor looks to fill.
My Grade: B+ (The Rangers needed a veteran reliever on the cheap, and they seem to have found their man.)

Dodgers sign LHP J.P. Howell to a $2.85 million contract:

J.P. Howell

The Rays discovered J.P. Howell, putting him in the bullpen where he thrived. Howell has performed well against lefties, but doesn't lose that much when facing righties. Many thought the Rays would resign Howell, but given his 2011-2012 value, the Rays might have been looking for a cheaper deal than almost $3 million. Only the Rays, and maybe the A's, have to worry about minute amounts of money like signing a reliever to a 1-year $3 million contract. The Dodgers have already added to their bullpen with the signing of Brandon League, albeit an overpay, but lost LHP Randy Choate to the Cardinals. Most likely, this lefty loss led L.A. to go after J.P. Howell. The Dodgers have deep pockets and a desire to win ASAP, so Howell probably wasn't attracting offers for more than $2 million before the Dodgers swooped in and outbid everyone. Howell is a solid pitcher who joins Scott Elbert as the two lefties in the Dodgers' pen. PECOTA and the Bill James projections see Howell outperforming his $2.85 million contract. He'll get a lot of work against lefties, and should prove his worth in pitcher friendly Chavez Ravine.
My Grade: B (If the Dodgers had to outbid other teams to get Howell, then this contract looks a little worse than I originally thought, but since most projections show Howell to outperform his current 2013 pecuniary value, I see this as a solid deal for both sides.)

Lance Berkman

Rangers sign 1B/DH Lance Berkman to a 1-year $10 million contract:
I previously wrote that that the perfect fit for Lance Berkman in 2013 would be in Tampa Bay. I sorely underestimated how much money teams would be willing to pay the soon-to-be 37 year old coming off of knee and calf injuries in 2012. Berkman has been very productive in his career, hitting for a career slash line of .296/.409/.544. Notice his incredibly high on base percentage and slugging percentage. Berkman is a duel threat at the plate, getting on base and hitting for power. The Big Puma has 360 career home runs and hasn't put up a wRC+ lower than 114 since his rookie season of 1999. Berkman was always a staple in Houston as part of the buzzing b's. He is a switch-hitter, who performs demonstratively better from the left side of the plate, but holds his own vs. left-handed pitching knocking southpaws around for a career .342 wOBA. Berkman has only two factors working against him, his age and recent injury history. PECOTA projects Berkman to be worth 3.0 WARP in 2013 and 2.2 WARP in 2014. The Rangers hope Berkman will fill the designated hitter role, smashing balls into the stands in right-field in hitter and home run friendly Texas. If Berkman produces the way PECOTA and Bill James (.279/.389/.485) expect he will, the $10 million price tag will look like a steal. If Berkman fails to hit 20 home runs and only plays in 70 games, it will look like a waste, but of only 1 to 2 million dollars.
My Grade: A- (The Rangers have a very right-handed lineup, so Berkman's power from the left side is a much needed upgrade. Berkman returns to Texas (he played most of his career for the Astros) instead of retiring, and should produce if healthy.)

Okay, you got me, none of these signings are monumental, but don't discount them as negligible. Howell, Frasor, and Gonzalez should all contribute to bullpens without needing to be the keystones, while Ross joins a well-stocked outfield in hitter friendly Arizona. The Rangers and Nolan Ryan apparently sought after Lance Berkman so much that Ryan flew to see Berkman in order to convince him to play in 2013, and do so for the Texas Rangers. Brett Myers is the true mundane signing of the bunch, but even he could prove interesting if traded mid-season. Look for January and February to be busy months on the MLB hot stove with Michael Bourn, Kyle Lohse, Adam LaRoche, and Shaun Marcum still unsigned and numerous trade-possible players still out there. Oh, and remember, only 37 more days until pitchers & catchers report. 

Recent Movement: Part 1

Baseball's Winter Meetings may be over, but it doesn't mean the shopping has stopped. We are only a few weeks away from the biggest gift giving time of the year, and it seems like Baseball's general managers have gotten the message. Recently, a number of big names have found new homes, and I have taken it upon myself to evaluate these deals. So, let's get started.

Greinke In Dodger Blue

Dodgers sign Zack Greinke to a 6-year $147 million contract: Yes, the moment we were all waiting for. Greinke represented the largest domino out there; once he signed, we would see every other pitcher on the market begin signing contracts. Greinke's contract makes him the highest paid right-handed pitcher ever, and the contract's average annual value of $24.5 million surpasses the C.C. Sabathia's $24.4 million AAV as the record for a pitcher on a multiyear contract. The Dodgers had money to spend, and they went for the gold. Greinke joins Josh Beckett and Clayton Kershaw atop the Dodgers rotation, giving them a solid 1-2-3- punch that every playoff team needs. Greinke's contract will take him through his age 34 season, which means the Dodgers will get Greinke's production before it begins to seriously slip due to age. PECOTA forecasts Greinke's future value as such:

	WARP
2013	3.5
2014	3.5
2015	3.4
2016	3.1
2017	2.9
2018	2.6
Average	3.17
Median	3.25

If we extrapolate those forecasts to value in dollars, this deal should benefit both Greinke and the Dodgers. Greinke has proven he can pitch in both the American League (Kansas City Royals and LA Angels) and the National League (Milwaukee Brewers). There is little to say about Greinke's production or this contract, as it seems as though both sides accomplished their respective goals. Greinke becomes a very very rich man who will be in annual contention to make the playoffs, and the Dodgers acquired the top-tier starting pitcher they needed to complement fellow ace Clayton Kershaw, making a big splash with their newfound deep pockets. The Dodgers and Rangers were both vying for Greinke's services, but the Dodgers came out on top. Choosing LA over Texas makes sense for Greinke given that Dodger Stadium ranks tied for the 25th least hitter friendly park in the majors (Park factor of 0.867) while the Ballpark in Arlington ranks as the 4th most hitter friendly park in the league (Park factor of 1.183).

My Grade: A (Greinke and the Dodgers both wanted this union. The Dodgers look to have paid a reasonable amount, while Greinke made a solid career choice, choosing a more hitter friendly home park over the exact opposite.)

Pirates sign RHP Jason Grilli to a 2-year $6.75 million contract: The most fascinating part of this deal is that former MLB outfielder Gary Sheffield represents Jason Grilli. Apart from that aesthetic aspect of this deal, the Pirates sured up their bullpen by bringing back the 33rd best reliever in MLB in 2012 according to Fangraphs calculation of Wins Above Replacement. For comparison's sake, let's look at both Jonathan Broxton and Raphael Soriano, who ranked just better than Grilli last season. Soriano remains a free agent, but he did turn down a qualifying offer ($13.5 million/1 season) to test the waters for more money, showing that he thinks his services are worth more than $13.5 million per season. Broxton recently signed a 3-year $21 million contract with the Reds, which puts his worth at about $7 million per season. Grilli's new contract will net him about $7 million over two years. See the difference? The Pirates made out great here.

	IP	K/9	BB/9	LOB%	FIP	WAR
Jonathan Broxton	58	6.98	2.64	79.2%	3.03	1.3
Rafael Soriano	67.2	9.18	3.19	88.0%	3.32	1.2
Jason Grilli	58.2	13.81	3.38	82.8%	2.8	1.1

The pirates retain a veteran back end of the bullpen pitcher who strikes out hitters at a great rate, and does a good job of keeping base runners from scoring. Grilli is durable, putting up the same number of innings pitched as Broxton who is 8 years Grilli's junior.

My Grade: A- (The Pirates are taking a chance on an older reliever who has never posted K/9 numbers like he did in 2012. It probably points toward some regression, but even still, this is a very team friendly contract. Given the Pirates young arms in the rotation, giving Clint Hurdle a reliable righty in the pen is a solid move.)

Twins sign RHP Kevin Correia to a 2-year $10 million contract: This deal isn't a blockbuster, but I'm sure we can find something interesting here. Correia is a replacement level pitcher who has the ability to "eat innings". Correia was lucky to get a 2-year contract given his less than stellar production over the last few years, but if any team were to sign the veteran, the Twins make some sense. While many of us think of Target Field as a pitcher's park, in reality it is the 10 best hitter's park in the Majors. This means that Correia's numbers could take even a greater turn for the worse in Minnesota. He'll be pitching in a hitter friendly park while simultaneously moving from the NL to the AL. This deal heavily favors Correia since he'll be getting paid an AAV of $5 million, which equates to about 0.9 wins per season, a number, that given his recent production, will prove difficult for Correia to achieve.  On the other hand, if Correia puts up solid first half numbers in 2013, he could be a perfect trade deadline candidate as he has a team friendly deal with a full year of control for 2014. If his production continues to decline, the Twins have essentially signed a place holder until recently acquired young pitchers like Trevor May and Alex Meyer are ready to play big-league ball.

My Grade: C- (A lot of ifs are involved here. He could turn out to be a valuable asset, but too much of the evidence points towards the opposite. Correia is making way more money than he's likely to be worth, so from his side, this deal is an A.)

Kevin Youkilis

Yankees sign 3B Kevin Youkilis to a 1-year $12 million contract: It was no surprise to anyone when the rumors came in about the Yankees being in hot pursuit of Kevin Youkilis. Youkilis represented the best free agent option at third base, and with Yankees 3B Alex Rodriguez out for at least the first half of 2013, the Yankees would settle for nothing less than the best available option. Last season the Red Sox replaced Youkilis with a younger model, but shipped him off to the Windy City. In Chicago, Youkilis got back on track, returning from an injury to post solid numbers (109 wRC+, .339 wOBA, and .188 ISO). PECOTA projects Youkilis to return to his former self, 3.9 WARP, .303 TAv, and .374 OBP. Youk, known as the "Greek God of Walks", has always provided value by getting on base at well above average rates, while providing enough power to compensate for his utter lack of speed. The Yankees gain a versatile veteran who gets on base, and might produce more value than a healthy A-rod would. Youkilis is looking to show the league that he hasn't lost a step despite a down year in 2012, hoping to net himself a multi-year contract beginning in 2014. 

My Grade: B+ (This deal works for both sides. Honestly, the Yankees should have made a longer commitment to Youkilis. A-rod is as close to a sunk cost as a player can get, and if Youkilis can replace Rodriguez for the next 3 seasons, it might seriously benefit the Yanks. This deal gives the Bronx Bombers some options, as Cashman and company can let Youkilis go after 2013 and either make a deal for another third baseman, or risk going with A-Rod in the future. Youkilis gets a healthy contract, looking to justify a multi-year deal going into 2014.)

Ichiro Suzuki

Yankees sign OF Ichiro Suzuki to 2-year $13 million contract: At 39 years old, Ichiro is not the superstar he once was, but he's still a viable MLB outfielder. After performing miserably at the plate in Seattle last year, Ichiro resurrected his hitting production in NYC, going from a .261/.288/.353 slash line as a Mariner to a .322/.340/.454 slash line in pinstripes. The biggest difference in Ichiro's approach to the plate between his time in Seattle and New York in 2012 was that in NYC, Ichiro became more selective. His swing percentage dropped from 49.8% to 46.6%, which caused an increase in hitter's counts. By becoming more selective, Ichiro saw more fastballs, and thus began to put the ball in play in places that allowed him to reach base safely. He his more home runs in New York (thank you short porch), and hit the ball on the ground more often, causing his infield hit percentage to double. The biggest drop off between his play on the west coast and his play on the east was Ichiro's defense. He posted a +13 DRS in Seattle while compiling a well below average -7 DRS playing in the New York outfield. This is a wild swing in defensive abilities, but given the difference in total plays made between Ichiro in Seattle and in New York, the difference in defensive efficiency can be explained by a massive difference in sample size. In the few plays Ichiro made in New York, he didn't perform well, but had he made 4 times as many plays, his top-notch defense would have shown through. The Yankees don't have a proven lead off hitter, but the combination of Brett Gardner, Derek Jeter, and now Ichiro Suzuki should serve as suitable fill-ins. The most surprising part of the deal is that Ichiro found a contract offer for more than 1-year, but after rumors surfaced that the Phillies has offered Ichiro a similar contract, the Yankees were forced to pony up an extra year in order to retain Ichiro's services.

My Grade: B (The Yankees get a cheap option to play the outfield well who uses his speed and savvy to get on base and create runs. Ichiro got the ever illusive 2nd year despite being 29 years old. This isn't a perfect deal since Ichiro's age points towards a decrease in future production, and the Yankees have other needs to fill.)

Reds sign 3B Jack Hannahan to a 2-year $4 million contract: This isn't a biggie, but it is worth noting. The Reds recently acquired Shin-Soo Choo from the Indians via trade, but with the likelihood of the Indians bringing back Scott Rolen decreasing by the second, Hannahan makes a find replacement. Hannahan is a solid defender at third base, putting up a positive DRS in all 5 of his MLB seasons. On the other hand, FRAA, used by Baseball Prospectus, shows that Hannahan has always been a top defender, posting a 16.1 and 10.9 FRAA in 2011 and 2012 respectively. As far as back-up infielders go, Hannahan will serve the Reds well. Hannahan's splits show a huge disparity between his ability to hit right-handed pitching over left-handed pitching. Hannahan posted a 100 wRC+ vs. RHP last season, but an abysmal 40 wRC+ against left-handers. Look for the Reds to put Hannahan in the starting lineup when the Reds run up against right-handers. 

My Grade: B+ (I like this deal for both sides. Hannahan was essentially left out to dry by the Indians, but Cleveland is all about rebuilding at the moment, and a solid platoon third baseman would only take up a roster spot for the Indians. For the Reds, Hannahan represents half the answer at the hot corner. Hannahan will platoon with Todd Frazier, an up and comer for the Reds on the left-side of the infield.)

That's all for this edition of free-agent frenzy, join us next time when we discuss the Josh Hamilton signing, as well as others. 

What's Wright and What's Wrong?

Recently, I wrote about two players who have been mentioned as possible trade candidates this offseason, the Twins Josh Willingham and the Indians Shin-Soo Choo. Both are outfielders, and neither is a true "star". Then there's David Wright. Wright constitutes the polar opposite of Choo and Willingham. He has been the focal point of the New York Mets for years, during the good times and the bad, although Mets fans might say they were all bad. As a third baseman, he plays a premium offensive and semi-premium defensive position, but by playing the hot corner in the big apple, he garners much more exposure than say Chase Headley or Aramis Ramirez.

Going into this offseason, Wright was coming off one of the best seasons of his career, second only to his 2007 campaign. He had previously signed a 7 year $70 million contract that included a team option for 2013 for $16 million. Wright has made about $54 million the last 6 seasons, but he has been worth a little more than twice that amount. Here is a look at his value since signing his current contract in 2007:

	fWAR	rWAR	WARP
2007	8.8	8.1	7.6
2008	7.1	6.7	7.2
2009	3.5	2.9	3.3
2010	4.0	2.5	5.3
2011	1.9	1.9	0.6
2012	7.8	6.7	5.7

Wright's fWAR stats are a bit inflated in comparison to his rWAR and WARP because much of his defense comes from his good range, while his below average arm leads to him not making some plays that average third baseman make regularly. Also, his recent back injuries had hindered his range, but last season, it came back with a vengeance. Nonetheless, let's not be too soured by his 2009-2011 years. Since 2007 Wright has averaged 5.5 fWAR per season, which would be worth ~ $25 million on the open market. That number just exemplifies the extremely team friendly deal he signed in 2007. On a separate note, if the Mets are to regain any semblance of their 2006 selves, they should look to sign their marquee young players to team friendly deals at young ages, like the one they signed with Wright in 07'.

Before I get into what the Mets should do with Wright, I'm going to take a quick look at his production over the last few years. This is to give you a glimpse into what he does best.

	wOBA	wRC+	ISO	HR	OPS+	OBP
2010	0.366	129	0.220	29	131	0.354
2011	0.338	116	0.172	14	115	0.345
2012	0.376	140	0.186	21	143	0.391

So, Wright, unlike many players, provides a team with a great mix of on base percentage as well as power hitting. Relatively, he is a very good run creator, especially given the other players who play at 3rd base like Cabrera, Beltre, and Headley. Wright's ISO has declined recently, but it is a stat that usually peaks in a player's mid 20's, so an almost 30 year old, he's right on track. At the same time, you would like to see his home run numbers remain more constant, especially since the Mets moved the fences in at Citi Field. This would seem to be more of a concern, since he hasn't topped 25 HR since 2010, but given his back injury in 2011, and the change in his approach at the plate in 2012, it isn't surprising.

Change of approach? Where did that come from? Well, after speaking with some very observant Mets fans who are relatives of mine, and then checking out the numbers to be sure, I discovered that Wright definitely changed his approach to at-bats. According to my sources, he began taking strike one without question. At first, this is a good strategy for seeing more pitches, and thus finding a better one to hit. This is confirmed by the decrease in his swing percentage, 41.6% in 2012 compared to a career 43.6% mark. In these cases you would like to see a decrees in swings on pitches outside of the strike zone, but because "taking the first pitch" is not the best way to accomplish this goal, Wright swung fewer times at pitches out of the zone than those in the strike zone. Pitchers began throwing easy to hit pitches to begin at bats, and if Wright took them, he began the at bat in an 0-1 hole every time. As we know from the incredible amount of research, a batter who begins his at bats down 0-1 has a far worse chance of reaching base than one who starts them with a 1-0 count.

As far as base running, Wright has always been a solid base runner, posting positive UBR values in 7 out of his 9 MLB seasons. This included a 1.2 UBR in 2012, a year in which he stole 15 bases, but was thrown out 10 times. It would seem that if Wright just attempted fewer steals, he might very well be a valuable asset on the base paths. Remember, speed diminishes with age, but knowledgeable base running can remain forever.

So, what should the Mets do with David Wright? Currently he is set to play for the Amazin's in 2013 at a cost of $16 million. Was nothing to happen between now and this time next year, Wright would become a free agent following the 2013 seasons. That is one of the least likely possibilites, so let's explore some of the others. First, the Mets could decide to negotiate a contract extension. General Manager Sandy Alderson has said that in the Mets' current situation he would rather not sign players to their 2nd contracts. Essentially he means that he doesn't want to get into negotiations over a contract for a player who's next contract will cover some of their prime as well as a part of their decline. This sentiment points towards an extension that might be heavier on the money side, but light on the years side. By my estimates, Alderson and the Mets would not offer Wright more than a 5-year $100 million extension. That would be $25 million per season (expecting about 5 fWAR), and it would take Wright into the 2018 season, at which time he would be 35 years old. In addition, if third base becomes a bit too much for Wright, and Mets prospect Wilmer Flores becomes their everyday third baseman, Wright could make a smooth transition to 2nd base.

The more likely option, and probably the most sensible one, is to trade Wright. Some might say that Wright is a fixture in New York, the star of the team, and a leader in the clubhouse. Even if all that were true, the Mets are rebuilding, so throw all of those intangibles out the window. This is a business and the Mets need to get back to making decisions based on facts. By picking up Wright's option for the 2013 season, the Mets made the number of teams willing to trade for the third baseman greater than before. Now, a team that would rather not extend him, but wants him for the one-year rental, can be in the discussion. Who might those teams be?

I would bet that the Braves, Phillies, Dodgers, and White Sox would all be in the discussion for Wright. Dark horse candidates might include the Yankees, Giants, and the Athletics. One of the big questions is, would the Mets be willing to trade Wright within the division, or worse, to the Yankees? In reality, the team may only negotiate outside of those teams, but unfortunately for them, some of the best candidates to trade for Wright are the Braves, Phillies, and Yankees. Since I often live in a world outside of reality, I will suspend that feature in order to perform this analysis.

The Braves are perfect for Wright. If you didn't hear, Chipper Jones retired this season, leaving a huge gap at third base. The Braves could move 2012 left fielder Martin Prado to third base, but if so it leaves a hole in left field. The Braves are no big market team, but for a player like Wright they could expend the necessary capitol to extend Wright for a number of years. In addition, the Braves also have pitching prospects coming out of their ears, something the Mets would love to take off their hands. A trade involving pitching prospect Randall Delgado would probably entice the Mets to make a move because a future rotation of Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Randall Delgado would be a force to be reckoned with. 

The Phillies need a third baseman. They recently resigned Kevin Frandsen, but he isn't the answer. With a mediocre third base market out there in free agency, and their only third base prospect a few years away, the Phillies could make a move for Wright. The team needs right-handed hitters as well, but the problem here will be if the Phillies have the prospects to trade for Wright. While the team has made it clear they want to give Domonic Brown a chance in the outfield, a trade of Domonic Brown and one of their pitching prospects like Jonathan Pettibone would be a fair trade for Wright. While the Phillies make sense here, this may be the least likely possibility due to the NL East rivalry, the Phillies uncertainty to extend Wright, and most importantly the Mets ability to find better prospects in return elsewhere.

The Dodgers have been, and will most likely continue to be the most active team in trades and free agency. They have lots of money, a desire to use it, and they play in the same division as the recent 2-time World Series champion San Francisco Giants. The team has said they are willing to trade right fielder Andre Ethier, and the Mets would love to acquire him. It's no secret that the Mets need outfield help, and Ethier would provide them with some much-needed stability. The Dodgers would probably have to tack a pitcher onto the deal, and trading for a 3B would mean moving Hanley Ramirez back to shortstop, but if hitting is what the Dodgers want, this is their best option. 

The White Sox want to resign Kevin Youkilis, and they have very little as far as prospects go. The White Sox would love David Wright, and they have a desperate need for a third baseman with some pop, but I don't think they have anything the Mets want, making this deal unlikely to happen.

What about the Yankees. After paltry play from Alex Rodriguez in the 2012 postseason, and an obvious decline in his numbers over the last few seasons, the Yankees would love to move A-rod to DH and Wright could be the perfect compliment to Robinson Cano going forward. The Mets are looking for pitching and outfield help. The Yankees could trade Phil Hughes and prospect Mason Williams, an outfielder, in exchange for Wright. Hughes is in his 2nd year of arbitration, but he's young, and if the Mets have any confidence in him, they could look to sign him to a 3-year deal with a fourth year team option for something in the neighborhood of $20 million. Williams projects to be a great all around outfielder, but he probably won't be ready until 2014 at the earliest. In the end, the Mets probably won't make a trade with their crosstown rivals; it might lose them the few fans they have left.

The Giants don't need a third baseman, but David Wright could prove to be a great upgrade for them in a number of ways. The Giants, despite winning the World Series still need more consistent offense. The  Giants have fan favorite Pablo Sandoval playing the hot corner, but with talks of trading first baseman Brandon Belt, the team should consider moving the hefty Sandoval to 1st and trading for a bonafide player like Wright. Add Wright to Buster Posey, Sandoval, and Hunter Pence and the Giants lineup becomes formidabile in the middle of the order. Yes, they would become very righthanded, but lefties hitting for power at AT&T park is something left only for Barry Bonds. The Giants have the money to extend Wright, and they could trade the Mets top prospect Gary Brown, an outfielder, and minor prospect Hector Sanchez, a catcher. The Mets need help in a number of places, but Brown would instantly become their top-hitting prospect and could begin playing in the Mets outfield in 2013. 

Finally we come to the Oakland A's. This is a team that, if they traded for Wright, would be doing so with no intention, or ability, to sign him to an extension. The A's have a solid defensive third baseman in Josh Donaldson, but he doesn't provide much as far as offense goes. The A's have 4 above average MLB outfielders, making one of them expendable. Colin Cowgill is the perfect player to trade. He came over from the Diamondbacks as a highly touted prospect, but his stock has dropped a bit recently. Add him to one of the many young pitchers in the A's minor league system like Sonny Gray, and you have a trade that satisfies both sides. The A's get a hitter to solidify their lineup for 2013, keeping them competitive with offensively minded teams like the Angels and Rangers, while not putting a big dent in the young core they rely on year in and year out. The Mets can instantly put Gray and Cowgill into their starting lineup, one in the rotation and one in the outfield, two spots in which they need help. Wheeler, Harvey, and Gray sounds pretty good as the rotation of the future, and Cowgill has potential to remain in the outfield for years to come. Both guys are cheap and under team control for a long time. 

In conclusion, I originally thought that the Mets best move was to trade David Wright. Now, after looking at their options, I wonder if offering him an extension might be the best thing for their team. Honestly, it all comes down to the money. If Wright demands more than the Mets are willing to pay him, a trade is the only option. Some might say the Mets should wait to trade him before the 2013 trade deadline, at which point a team may need Wright more than now, but the chances that the Mets could land the prospects they want for half year rental aren't high. The Mets have to find a deal that makes sense, if not, they can take a chance at trading him by the deadline or, more likely, they can extend him. One thing is for sure, Sandy Alderson is going to do what he thinks is best for the Mets' future, whether it involves David Wright is history that has yet to be written. 

It's All In Your Head

Do the dates July 24th - July 31st mean anything to you?  They may signify a long needed vacation, an upcoming heat wave, or an important business trip to a foreign destination.  For those in Major League Baseball, this is the week leading up to the trade deadline.  July 31st marks the official non-waiver trade deadline in Major League baseball.  Once August begins, 2 months remain in the regular season, thus the league decides to restrict the trading of players at a specific point in the second half of the season.  This deadline allows teams to improve prior to the deadline and focus on playing instead or wondering if they may lose of gain a teammate.

During this frenzy of rumors, proposals, and deals, pundits, commentators, and especially fans forget about the affects trades have on the players.  During this part of the summer, front offices play the part of CIA analysts dissecting mountains of information, scouts perform necessary reconnaissance of prospects, and general managers play the role of, well, general.  If these groups execute their jobs properly trades are made, teams looking for playoff berths make improvements, and those wistfully far from the post-season build for the future.

In my opinion, the most recent successful and crafty teams have been the Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, and Texas Rangers.  These teams usually find themselves as serious buyers and sellers around the trade deadline as opposed to the off-season when free-agency is the main focus.  Mid-level or poorer teams usually relinquish players to free-agency, but during the week leading up to the trade deadline, they make more noise due to their ability to afford players received in trades even if they cannot pony up enough money to sign them to long-term contracts.  To put it a better way, the week leading up to July 31st is a free-for-all.

Instead of focusing on who may be dealt and which prospect will be moved, I want to discuss a less touched upon but vital issue embedded within the cacophony of chatter.  How do trades affect players? Physically nothing changes but their uniforms, but mentally and strategically, everything changes.

Michael Bourn

Strategically, a player traded usually moves from a bad team to a good team.  Take Michael Bourn as an example from 2011.  Bourn played most of the 2011 season with the Houston Astros, but as the deadline approached the pathetic Astros traded their speedy center fielder to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for some major league ready young players and other prospects.  Bourn's preparation for every game shouldn't change too much, except that he will face more National League East pitching instead of Central division pitching.  Instead of the meager 2011 Pirates, Cubs, and Reds pitching staffs, Bourn needed to get ready for the likes of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Jordan Zimmerman, and Anibal Sanchez.  This represents a minor strategic shift.

C.C. Sabathia

An example of a greater change in strategy due to trade is typified in a trade made between the Cleveland Indians and Milwaukee Brewers in 2008.  The Indians, in no way bound for the playoffs, traded ace lefty C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers in exchange for Matt LaPorta and other prospects.  Sabathia went from the AL Central to the NL Central.  He would now prepare for many hitters he had never faced in his career, in addition to needing to prepare to hit with no designated hitter rule in the NL.  Sabathia, like Bourn in 2011, both showed their professionalism and talent by producing very well after switching teams.

Bourn				Sabathia
Team	Astros	Braves		Team	Indians	Brewers
Avg.	0.30	0.28		rWAR	1.70	4.70
OPS	0.77	0.67		ERA	3.83	1.65
rWAR	2.10	0.90		WHIP	1.23	1.00
Stolen Bases	39	22		FIP	3.41	2.44

So, the strategic differences involved in trades do not affect players performance to a significant extent.  That leaves the psychological challenges involved in the switching of teams.  A player's team is an affiliation.  Each player has a contract that states that in exchange for services of playing baseball the player is given an annual salary.  This contract goes beyond a piece of paper, and provides a player with camaraderie and allegiance.  Each player's fellow teammates represent their second family.  According to two sports psychology studies,

The effects of changing teams on the performance of major league baseball players

Nicholson, Craig; McTeer, William;White, Philip

Journal of Sport Behavior; Mar 1998; 21, 1; ProQuest  


AND

Pers Soc Psychol Bull 1988 14: 46

Jeffrey M. Jackson, Stephen A. Buglione and David S. Glenwick

A Drive Theory Analysis

Major League Baseball Performance as a Function of Being Traded

players traded mid-season find it difficult to cope with the idea that their former team did not want them anymore.  Often times players who feel this loss will compare themselves to the bounty corralled by their former team, a mistake because often these players are prospects who are unknown commodities.  

While some players find it difficult to leave their former teams, others find psychological issues in attempting to meet or exceed the expectations placed on them by their new squad.  Fans often see a new acquisition as the key to winning and thus place lots of pressure on these new members of their team. In doing so, player will find it difficult in acclimating to their new team.  According to these articles, this is usually not the case.  More often than not players use the stress or expectations placed upon them as a challenge.  Increases in batting average and slugging percentage were seen amongst hitters after switching teams mid-season, while pitchers saw a slight decrease in productivity, but not a to a significant extent.  

So, overall, the psychological effects of mid-season trades are positive, not negative.  Players tend to outperform their statistics from the first half of the season in an attempt to exceed the expectations placed on them and sometimes because they needed a change of scenery.  Sometimes a player's family plays a part in trades.  Cubs pitcher Ryan Dempster, who has the right to reject any trade in which he is involved, recently rejected a trade to the Atlanta Braves.  He did so not because he wishes to remain in Chicago, but due to his desire to be traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers because Los Angeles is closer to his family's home in Vancouver, Canada.  Most players do not have no-trade clauses in their contracts, and thus teams freely trade them to which ever team offers the best package in return.  

Ichiro, Playing Against His Former Team

Trading is risky business, not only for the organizations involved, but for the players psyches and performance.  For team's giving up solid prospects to attain a player they think will propel their squad to the playoffs, it is important to make the transition as smooth as possible.  For example, Ichiro Suzuki recently left Seattle for the Yankees after 11 and a half season with the Mariners.  This transition is not easy, but I'm sure the Yankees made sure to have all of the necessary accommodations to make the transition as easy as a spicy tuna roll (or is it pie?).  Overall, make sure, as a fan, to remember that MLB players are people, and just like being transferred from one part of a company to another affects your life, so do trades affect Major Leaguers.  

Now What? Part II

Erving "Magic" Johnson co-owner of the LA Dodgers 

In the first installment of the "Now What?" three part series, I explored the problems many professional athletes encounter in their post-sports careers.  Professional athletes usually retire with large sums of money that they must then put to some use.  As was previously discussed, athletes like Curt Schilling and Allen Iverson chose paths that inexorably led them towards bankruptcy and humiliation.  In part II, I will delve into the lives of those professional athletes who have experienced financial success following productive and lucrative careers in sports.

Michael Jordan was the greatest basketball player the world has ever seen.  Few people would truly disagree with that statement.  What is the answer to this question: "Who was the greatest point guard ever?"  Not everyone (Celtics fans), would say Magic Johnson, but I would.  Johnson won 5 NBA championships, 3 league MVP trophies, and 3 Finals MVP trophies, and those are only a few of his accolades.  Magic Johnson, by all accounts, had one of the most prolific NBA careers of all time, but it was cut short when he discovered he was HIV positive.

For many professional athletes at the height of a hall-of-fame career, this news would cause them to become recluse.  Instead, Johnson decided to begin his second career, as a businessman.  Not long after retiring from the NBA in 1995, Johnson began searching for investors for an urban rebuilding project he predicted would become a money maker.  Most rejected his proposal, but friends urged Johnson to use his considerable wealth for the venture.  Johnson's proposal was to put in place food, retail, and entertainment stores into predominantly poor, black, and hispanic neighborhoods in Los Angeles.  He believed he understood what the people in these communities wanted.  Where most saw dilapidated  shopping centers, Johnson saw a business opportunity, one in which he could dually profit and supply desired demands to lower-class citizens of Los Angeles.

He showed his business acuity by meeting with gang leaders, the California Public Employees' Retirement System, and other community leaders in order to perfect his investment plans for urban Los Angeles.  He instituted different food and beverage options in the blacker area movie theaters, switching from the usual options to sweeter drinks, spicier hot dogs, and buffalo wings.  Johnson racked up business success after business success, eventually leading him to create Magic Johnson Enterprises, a company Forbes estimates to be worth over $700 million.  He owns 5% of the Los Angeles Lakers and recently joined Guggenheim Partners and Stan Kasten in buying the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Success after a professional sports career doesn't even begin to describe Magic Johnson, he is a  tycoon.  

Mo Vaughn, MVP turned Businessman

If Magic Johnson represents one end of the spectrum and Allen Iverson the other, Mo Vaughn sits comfortably between them.  Maurice "Mo" Vaughn played professional baseball for 13 seasons, accumulating just over $100 million in the process.  He made 3 All-Star teams and was crowned the 1995 American League Most Valuable Player.  Two events, one negative and the other positive, happened in Vaughn's post-MLB career.  First, the Mitchell Report demonstrated that he knowingly took performance enhancing drugs supplied by Kurt Radomski.  Second, he decided to invest in creating better living spaces for poorer New York City residents.  


Towards the end of his MLB career, the Anaheim Angels traded Mo Vaughn and his $70+ million contract to the New York Mets.  Once in New York, Vaughn experienced debilitating injuries that forced him to retire in 2003.  After retirement, Vaughn, the child of a high school teacher and principal, decided to give back to the city he felt he had failed.  Instead of donating money to non-profit charities, Vaughn decided to assist New York City and simultaneously begin his second career.  The former Red Sox 1st baseman created OMNI New York LLC., a company whose main goal is to invest in and repair low-income-housing.  Vaughn partnered with savvy businessmen and others more experienced in the world of low-income housing in order to create a juggernaut of a company that has bought and rehabilitated 1,142 housing units in New York City.  The company has been a success, and in 2009 Vaughn moved to purchase and recondition low-income housing near Boston, another city in which he played Major League Baseball.  

Good deeds can include profit

While former athletes like Curt Schilling and Allen Iverson squander their millions by investing poorly and spending like a teenage girl at Coach with daddy's Mastercard, others like Johnson and Vaughn became successful businessmen in their post-sports careers.  So, why did it work out for Mo Vaughn and not Curt Schilling?  Vaughn found a niche market, diligently researched the venture, and then asked for help from those with more experience than he.  Johnson utilized his knowledge of the day-to-day lives of low-income minorities to eventually provide them with products they desired.  Somehow, both Johnson and Vaughn were able to help communities, as many former professional athletes do, while simultaneously finding a way to make a profit.  Building your own video game studio, so cleverly named 38 Studios, depicts a self-centered man who wanted to first have fun and secondly run a business.  Johnson and Vaughn saw their ventures not as fun, but money-making opportunities that would both benefit the community and create new careers for themselves.  


If professional sports leagues were to write a manual for how to succeed after retirement, Magic Johnson and Mo Vaughn should be included.  In addition to businessmen, former pro athletes have successfully run non-profits (Dikembe Mutombo), become broadcasters, or chose to remain in sports as coaches (Robin Ventura) and administrators (John Elway).  The end of an illustrious sports career does not imply success after the fact, but with so many positive examples, there must be hope for all of them.  
Next time you watch a former profession athlete receive a community service award, provide play-by-play analysis, or buy/rehabilitate low-income housing, remember the numerous ways in which that person could have selfishly slapped the American Dream in the face by squandering their millions, but instead decided to take the opposite path.