Every Move Counts

Generally in the Baseball offseason, the slowest time for transactions happens over the holidays, Christmas and New Years. General Managers and their staffs want to spend time with their family and friends, as do the players, agents, and their respective loved ones. So, the hot stove cools, and the fans (and pundits) are left with little to talk about. On the other hand, the entire industry does not come to a halt. Free agents still negotiate deals, trades are proposed, and players move from team to team. Here are some of the latest free agent signings.

Cody Ross

Diamondbacks sign OF Cody Ross to a 3-year $26 million contract: 
Where did this come from? Jason Kubel, Justin Upton, Gerrardo Para, Adam Eaton, and A.J. Pollock. This is the list of outfielders the Diamondbacks had at their disposal before signing outfielder Cody Ross to a 3-year contract. This, all after trading center fielder Chris Young to the Oakland Athletics. Basically, the Diamondbacks have stock piled the largest arsenal of outfielders we've ever seen. They have rookies, veterans, lefties, righties, power-hitters, speedsters, great defenders, and poor defenders. Missing an outfielder? If so, call Kevin Towers because anyone who doesn't play in the infield now resides in the desert. The reasons behind the Dbacks' decision to sign Cody Ross remain speculative at best. It puts the team in a position to keep all of these players, trade one, or trade more than one. The Diamondbacks play in hitter friendly Chase Field, which means they need a solid defensive outfield to take away opposing teams' hits, and great hitters to take advantage of the offensively-friendly confines.

Cody Ross is an interesting pickup. He's a right-handed hitting corner outfielder whose career has been above average, but nothing to call your mother about. In the last 3 seasons his numbers have followed his batting average on balls put in play. BABIP is a statistic that centers around a mean of .300, with exceptions for hitters that make their living purely on making contact with the ball.

	BABIP	Slash Line	wOBA	fWAR
2010	0.324	.269/.322/.413	0.322	2.3
2011	0.279	.240/.325/.405	0.321	1.0
2012	0.317	.267/.326/.481	0.345	2.4

When Ross' luck is better, his overall performance seems to improve, but when he hits balls in play at fielders, his production falters. Ross also has fairly distinctive righty/lefty splits. In his career, Ross's wRC+ against lefties is 141, well above the league average, but a meek 92 against righties. While Ross's offensive production falls in every category when looking at his splits vs. righties, his slugging percentage scuffles the most. In his career, Ross slugs .415 against right-handed pitchers, but a fantastic .575 against lefties. This split shows that Ross will play when a lefty takes the mound against the snakes. So, given his splits, it would seem that Ross would be a perfect fit for a platoon, but you may be wondering why a team would want to pay a player more than $8 million AAV to platoon with another player when a similar platoon option like Scott Hairston remains a free agent. Hairston comes at a cheaper cost, and there is no need to lock him up for multiple years, but the Diamondbacks probably preferred Ross to Hairston due to their difference in defensive ability. Cody hasn't been a star defender, but he's put up positive defensive runs saved and ultimate zone rating numbers since in his career. He plays the corner spots much better than the defensively demanding center field, and he played much better in the smaller Fenway Park outfield than the expansive outfield in San Francisco. Ross is only getting older, which means slower, but given his splits, the Diamondbacks won't be counting on Ross for defensive perfection in every game. PECOTA expects Ross to be worth about 5.7 WARP for the duration of his contract in Arizona, but given his new home field, we might see more offensive production. Overall, this signing seemed crazy on the outset, but looks more and more genius as I delve deeper.

My Grade: B+ (As I said before, the Diamondbacks seemed stupid in making this deal, but when analyzing it, Ross looks like a fit in Arizona. The team could make serious upgrades at other positions by trading an outfielder. Most think Jason Kubel is the perfect candidate, but don't count out the team moving Justin Upton in a blockbuster deal.)

Brewers sign LHP Mike Gonzalez to a 1-year $2.25 million contact:
In 2012, the Brewers had one of the worst bullpens in Baseball. Given the Brewers' situation, the main goal this offseason had to be an upgrade in their relief core. The team's offense remains almost untouched, and their starting pitching has some youngsters looking to continue early career success. Recently the team signed lefty Tom Gorzelanny to a multi-year contract, and now Doug Melvin has inked fellow lefty and former Nat Mike Gonzalez to a 1-year contract. The Brewers relievers ranked 10th worst in Major League Baseball in wOBA against lefties last season, and 10th worst in home runs given up against left-handed batters. That, combined with the numerous left-handed hitters with power in the NL Central, made the Brewers go looking for some affordable upgrades in that department. Think about it, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Mike Rizzo, Pedro Alvarez, and Shin-Soo Choo all play in the NL Central. With hitters like that, the Brewers have to have a counter punch out of their bullpen, especially given those hitters' particular ability to hit the ball out of the ball park. Gonzalez has been solid his entire career, throwing from an over-the-top angle, but with a very "arms and legs" delivery. That means that his delivery isn't compact or simple, but instead has lots of moving parts that distract the hitter, in an attempt to keep the ball hidden from the hitters' eyes. Gonzalez has a higher career K%, lower career BB%, and drastically higher ground ball percentage against lefties than righties, making him the perfect lefty specialist coming out of Milwaukee's bullpen. At only $2.25 million, the Brewers found an affordable lefty reliever. What more could they ask for?
My Grade: A (I can't find a downside to this deal. It doesn't make the Brewers contenders, but it's a minor move that will prove important in division play.)

Indians sign RHP Brett Myers to a 1-year $7 million contract:
So, Brett Myers is sort of a weird player. He has twice moved from the starting rotation to the bullpen, and now for a second time will move back to the rotation. Most pitchers would rather start than relieve, and Myers probably turned down some offers to pitch out of the bullpen in order to sign with the Indians. The Tribe looks to be filling rotation spots with cheaper veterans rather than promote prospects. This comes from a lack of MLB ready, or close to MLB ready pitching prospects. The team recently traded for Trevor Bauer, and he will compete for a rotation spot, but most likely, if he doesn't impress, Bauer will begin the season in triple A. Myers is a solid innings eater, a solid #5 or possibly #4 starter who isn't flashy, but gets you through 6 innings of work most of the time. When tagged as a starter, Myers has thrown at least 190 innings in every season but one. That consistency combined with a very sparse injury history, and a low price tag made Myers the perfect target for the Indians. He has a typical four-pitch arsenal of fastball, curveball, slider, changeup, with the curveball acting as his best strikeout pitch. Myers has shifted from the four-seam fastball to a sinker in recent years, causing his ability to induce ground balls to go up in the latter half of his career. Myers has learned some better control recently, lowering his BB% from 2 to 3 percentage points in the last 3 seasons. The Indians aren't looking for anything spectacular from Myers, but they also aren't paying him for more than a 1.0 WARP value. If the Indians fall out of the playoff picture by the trade deadline, look for Myers to be dealt as he isn't owed very much money, and isn't signed past 2013.
My Grade: B (This deal isn't special. If the Indians perform well, Myers looks like a steal at $7 million, but if they falter, he might garner a utility infield prospect.)

Rangers sign RHP Jason Frasor to a 1-year $1.5 million contract:
The Rangers lost two important cogs in their bullpen this offseason. Both Mike Adams, now a Phillie, and Koji Uehara, now in Boston, moved eastward away from balmy Arlington for colder pastures. In addition, Neftali Feliz looks to have made a permanent move to the starting rotation, and Alexei Ogando could find himself a starter in 2013 as well. The Rangers already added righty Joakim Soria earlier this offseason, but this deal is different. Soria pitches well against both righties and lefties, making him valuable enough to sign a multiyear contract for $8 million. Frasor has a lot of difficulties getting lefties out (4.06 career FIP), but fairs better than average against right-handed hitters (3.60 career FIP). At $1.5 million, Frasor could put up similar numbers to his 2012 campaign and still be worth this contract. Look for the Rangers to possibly add one more reliever to sure up their bullpen. Texas starters Colby Lewis and Neftali Feliz are both coming back from Tommy John surgeries, with Lewis expected back mid-season and Feliz towards September. These injuries force Alexei Ogando into the rotation and leave a hole in the bullpen, one that Frasor looks to fill.
My Grade: B+ (The Rangers needed a veteran reliever on the cheap, and they seem to have found their man.)

Dodgers sign LHP J.P. Howell to a $2.85 million contract:

J.P. Howell

The Rays discovered J.P. Howell, putting him in the bullpen where he thrived. Howell has performed well against lefties, but doesn't lose that much when facing righties. Many thought the Rays would resign Howell, but given his 2011-2012 value, the Rays might have been looking for a cheaper deal than almost $3 million. Only the Rays, and maybe the A's, have to worry about minute amounts of money like signing a reliever to a 1-year $3 million contract. The Dodgers have already added to their bullpen with the signing of Brandon League, albeit an overpay, but lost LHP Randy Choate to the Cardinals. Most likely, this lefty loss led L.A. to go after J.P. Howell. The Dodgers have deep pockets and a desire to win ASAP, so Howell probably wasn't attracting offers for more than $2 million before the Dodgers swooped in and outbid everyone. Howell is a solid pitcher who joins Scott Elbert as the two lefties in the Dodgers' pen. PECOTA and the Bill James projections see Howell outperforming his $2.85 million contract. He'll get a lot of work against lefties, and should prove his worth in pitcher friendly Chavez Ravine.
My Grade: B (If the Dodgers had to outbid other teams to get Howell, then this contract looks a little worse than I originally thought, but since most projections show Howell to outperform his current 2013 pecuniary value, I see this as a solid deal for both sides.)

Lance Berkman

Rangers sign 1B/DH Lance Berkman to a 1-year $10 million contract:
I previously wrote that that the perfect fit for Lance Berkman in 2013 would be in Tampa Bay. I sorely underestimated how much money teams would be willing to pay the soon-to-be 37 year old coming off of knee and calf injuries in 2012. Berkman has been very productive in his career, hitting for a career slash line of .296/.409/.544. Notice his incredibly high on base percentage and slugging percentage. Berkman is a duel threat at the plate, getting on base and hitting for power. The Big Puma has 360 career home runs and hasn't put up a wRC+ lower than 114 since his rookie season of 1999. Berkman was always a staple in Houston as part of the buzzing b's. He is a switch-hitter, who performs demonstratively better from the left side of the plate, but holds his own vs. left-handed pitching knocking southpaws around for a career .342 wOBA. Berkman has only two factors working against him, his age and recent injury history. PECOTA projects Berkman to be worth 3.0 WARP in 2013 and 2.2 WARP in 2014. The Rangers hope Berkman will fill the designated hitter role, smashing balls into the stands in right-field in hitter and home run friendly Texas. If Berkman produces the way PECOTA and Bill James (.279/.389/.485) expect he will, the $10 million price tag will look like a steal. If Berkman fails to hit 20 home runs and only plays in 70 games, it will look like a waste, but of only 1 to 2 million dollars.
My Grade: A- (The Rangers have a very right-handed lineup, so Berkman's power from the left side is a much needed upgrade. Berkman returns to Texas (he played most of his career for the Astros) instead of retiring, and should produce if healthy.)

Okay, you got me, none of these signings are monumental, but don't discount them as negligible. Howell, Frasor, and Gonzalez should all contribute to bullpens without needing to be the keystones, while Ross joins a well-stocked outfield in hitter friendly Arizona. The Rangers and Nolan Ryan apparently sought after Lance Berkman so much that Ryan flew to see Berkman in order to convince him to play in 2013, and do so for the Texas Rangers. Brett Myers is the true mundane signing of the bunch, but even he could prove interesting if traded mid-season. Look for January and February to be busy months on the MLB hot stove with Michael Bourn, Kyle Lohse, Adam LaRoche, and Shaun Marcum still unsigned and numerous trade-possible players still out there. Oh, and remember, only 37 more days until pitchers & catchers report. 

Getting Younger, Well, Not Exactly

Michael Young

Today, the Philadelphia Phillies acquired Texas Rangers 3rd baseman Michael Young in exchange for right-handed pitcher Josh Lindblom and minor league reliever Lisalverto Bonilla. Supposedly, this deal was made 2-3 days ago, but the teams had to wait to make it official due to Young's no-trade clause. Today, Young waived the clause, after negotiating $1.2 million more on top of his contract, to compensate for the state tax difference between Texas and Pennsylvania. The Phillies have Young signed for 2013 but not beyond that. The Rangers seriously wanted Young gone, which is unsurprising given Young's recent complains concerning the loss of his starting job. The Rangers will pay $10 million of Young's $16 million salary for 2013 so he can play third base for the Phillies.

So, what are the Phillies getting in this deal? Is it the Michael Young who had 5 consecutive 200+ hit seasons, the comeback kid who compiled 213 hits as a 34 year old, or last season's -1.4 win player who seemed to have fall off the age curve cliff? Young has spent his entire career in Texas, and leaves the team as the franchise leader in hits, games played, and doubles. Fortunately for the Phillies, Citizens Bank Park and the Ballpark in Arlington are two of the most hitter friendly parks in Major League Baseball, thus Young shouldn't experience any drop off due to a park change. Young's career has been built on his ability to hit for average, but unfortunately, not much else. Young's .147 career ISO has more to do with his ability to hit doubles rather than any significant home run power, and he has a below average career BB% at 6.6% compared to the 2012 league average of 8.0%. On the other hand, Young consistently racks up the hits, and unless there is a significant drop off in swing speed or the ability to make contact with pitches in the zone, the hits should continue to come.

	Young	League Avg
Contact %	79.90%	85.90%
SwStr%	9.10%	7.10%
Z-Contact%	87.20%	89.80%

As you can see, even in his worst season in the big leagues, Young continued to make well above average contact, make better than average contact on pitches in the strike zone, and accumulate as many swinging strikes as the average player in 2012. So what went wrong? Young's 2012 season marked his lowest in terms of BB%, batting average on balls in play, and OPS+. Given Young's consistently below average BB% throughout his career, seeing him walk even less isn't something to worry about, but his .299 BABIP could be an issue. The low BABIP derived from his increased ground ball percentage coupled with an attrition in his fly ball percentage. If Young can get a bit more lift on the ball this year, Phillies fans shouldn't be surprised to see him return to some semblance of his 2011 self. It might be unreasonable to assume or even forecast Young's power to return, but getting the ball in the air more can lead to more extra-base hits.

Other than Young's on-field production, this move makes a lot of sense for the Phillies.  The Phillies have most of their payroll wrapped up in 4 players (Howard, Halladay, Lee, and Hamels), and while many thought Ruben Amaro would spend frivolously on free agents, instead he has adroitly acquired necessary parts via trades. In doing so, the Phillies retain the ability to make a move on the free agents who remain. This move opens up options for RAJ; allowing him to go after a corner outfielder like Cody Ross or Nick Swisher as well as top of the line bullpen help like Peter Moylan, Jon Rauch, or Mike Adams. In addition, it allows the Phillies to go after a high-risk high reward starting pitcher like Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jair Jurrjens, or John Lannan. Young isn't perfect, but he shouldn't be as bad as last season. Combining his skills at the plate with Kevin Frandsen's slightly above-averaged fielding will make for a viable option at third base, and a suitable replacement for the departing Placido Polanco, while waiting for prospect Cody Asche to mature.

The Rangers have a good young prospect in Mike Olt primed to take over the hot corner, which made Young expendable. Couple Young's age, diminishing production, and desire to start together and you get the perfect candidate for a trade. The Rangers picked up two relief pitchers from the Phillies. Josh Lindblom, who the Phillies received from Los Angeles in the trade that made Shane Victorino a Dodger, and all Lindblom did was finish dead last in wins amongst all Major League Relievers (-1.1). Lindblom's high BB/9 of 4.44, low GB% at 35.8%, and high HR/FB % of 15.7% show that he can't keep the ball in in the strike zone, but when he does, it has a tendency to fly out of the park. These stats show a pitcher who won't give up solo home runs, but instead will allow 2-run and 3-run home runs due to his propensity to allow base runners. While all of these are correctable, Lindblom now enters an even more home run friendly park, which doesn't bode well for the young righty.

Lisalverto Bonilla

The scouting report on Lisalverto Bonilla is that he has performed much better as a reliever than as a starter. Even since moving the bullpen Bonilla's FIP has fallen due to more strikeouts and fewer home runs. He still walks too many hitters, which means that if Rangers see an increase in home runs given up they will also see worse overall results from Bonilla. According to the scouting report at Phuture Phillies, Bonilla has a good fastball with great changeup, giving him a good pitch combination for a late inning reliever who can get out righties with regularity. At 22 years old, if Bonilla can put up similar numbers over twice the number of innings, he could become a full-time big leaguer by 2014.

Overall, from the Phillies side, this trade was slightly reassuring. Michael Young isn't the answer long-term, and he might not even be the full-time answer at third base this season, but given the abysmal market for third baseman this offseason, Amaro should feel proud of this move. He has many options as far as what to do next, but going after either Nick Swisher or Cody Ross seems logical. PECOTA expects Young to put up 1.2 wins next season, which would be worth about $9 million, 33% more than what the Phillies will pay Young in 2013. The Bill James projections also see a return to semi-normalcy for Young, predicting a .330 wOBA, 176 hits, and a .343 on base percentage.
My Grade: A- (Phillies now have an option at third, and didn't increase payroll, while the Rangers get a possible future set-up man and clear room for Mike Olt at 3rd)