Every Move Counts

Generally in the Baseball offseason, the slowest time for transactions happens over the holidays, Christmas and New Years. General Managers and their staffs want to spend time with their family and friends, as do the players, agents, and their respective loved ones. So, the hot stove cools, and the fans (and pundits) are left with little to talk about. On the other hand, the entire industry does not come to a halt. Free agents still negotiate deals, trades are proposed, and players move from team to team. Here are some of the latest free agent signings.

Cody Ross

Diamondbacks sign OF Cody Ross to a 3-year $26 million contract: 
Where did this come from? Jason Kubel, Justin Upton, Gerrardo Para, Adam Eaton, and A.J. Pollock. This is the list of outfielders the Diamondbacks had at their disposal before signing outfielder Cody Ross to a 3-year contract. This, all after trading center fielder Chris Young to the Oakland Athletics. Basically, the Diamondbacks have stock piled the largest arsenal of outfielders we've ever seen. They have rookies, veterans, lefties, righties, power-hitters, speedsters, great defenders, and poor defenders. Missing an outfielder? If so, call Kevin Towers because anyone who doesn't play in the infield now resides in the desert. The reasons behind the Dbacks' decision to sign Cody Ross remain speculative at best. It puts the team in a position to keep all of these players, trade one, or trade more than one. The Diamondbacks play in hitter friendly Chase Field, which means they need a solid defensive outfield to take away opposing teams' hits, and great hitters to take advantage of the offensively-friendly confines.

Cody Ross is an interesting pickup. He's a right-handed hitting corner outfielder whose career has been above average, but nothing to call your mother about. In the last 3 seasons his numbers have followed his batting average on balls put in play. BABIP is a statistic that centers around a mean of .300, with exceptions for hitters that make their living purely on making contact with the ball.

	BABIP	Slash Line	wOBA	fWAR
2010	0.324	.269/.322/.413	0.322	2.3
2011	0.279	.240/.325/.405	0.321	1.0
2012	0.317	.267/.326/.481	0.345	2.4

When Ross' luck is better, his overall performance seems to improve, but when he hits balls in play at fielders, his production falters. Ross also has fairly distinctive righty/lefty splits. In his career, Ross's wRC+ against lefties is 141, well above the league average, but a meek 92 against righties. While Ross's offensive production falls in every category when looking at his splits vs. righties, his slugging percentage scuffles the most. In his career, Ross slugs .415 against right-handed pitchers, but a fantastic .575 against lefties. This split shows that Ross will play when a lefty takes the mound against the snakes. So, given his splits, it would seem that Ross would be a perfect fit for a platoon, but you may be wondering why a team would want to pay a player more than $8 million AAV to platoon with another player when a similar platoon option like Scott Hairston remains a free agent. Hairston comes at a cheaper cost, and there is no need to lock him up for multiple years, but the Diamondbacks probably preferred Ross to Hairston due to their difference in defensive ability. Cody hasn't been a star defender, but he's put up positive defensive runs saved and ultimate zone rating numbers since in his career. He plays the corner spots much better than the defensively demanding center field, and he played much better in the smaller Fenway Park outfield than the expansive outfield in San Francisco. Ross is only getting older, which means slower, but given his splits, the Diamondbacks won't be counting on Ross for defensive perfection in every game. PECOTA expects Ross to be worth about 5.7 WARP for the duration of his contract in Arizona, but given his new home field, we might see more offensive production. Overall, this signing seemed crazy on the outset, but looks more and more genius as I delve deeper.

My Grade: B+ (As I said before, the Diamondbacks seemed stupid in making this deal, but when analyzing it, Ross looks like a fit in Arizona. The team could make serious upgrades at other positions by trading an outfielder. Most think Jason Kubel is the perfect candidate, but don't count out the team moving Justin Upton in a blockbuster deal.)

Brewers sign LHP Mike Gonzalez to a 1-year $2.25 million contact:
In 2012, the Brewers had one of the worst bullpens in Baseball. Given the Brewers' situation, the main goal this offseason had to be an upgrade in their relief core. The team's offense remains almost untouched, and their starting pitching has some youngsters looking to continue early career success. Recently the team signed lefty Tom Gorzelanny to a multi-year contract, and now Doug Melvin has inked fellow lefty and former Nat Mike Gonzalez to a 1-year contract. The Brewers relievers ranked 10th worst in Major League Baseball in wOBA against lefties last season, and 10th worst in home runs given up against left-handed batters. That, combined with the numerous left-handed hitters with power in the NL Central, made the Brewers go looking for some affordable upgrades in that department. Think about it, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Mike Rizzo, Pedro Alvarez, and Shin-Soo Choo all play in the NL Central. With hitters like that, the Brewers have to have a counter punch out of their bullpen, especially given those hitters' particular ability to hit the ball out of the ball park. Gonzalez has been solid his entire career, throwing from an over-the-top angle, but with a very "arms and legs" delivery. That means that his delivery isn't compact or simple, but instead has lots of moving parts that distract the hitter, in an attempt to keep the ball hidden from the hitters' eyes. Gonzalez has a higher career K%, lower career BB%, and drastically higher ground ball percentage against lefties than righties, making him the perfect lefty specialist coming out of Milwaukee's bullpen. At only $2.25 million, the Brewers found an affordable lefty reliever. What more could they ask for?
My Grade: A (I can't find a downside to this deal. It doesn't make the Brewers contenders, but it's a minor move that will prove important in division play.)

Indians sign RHP Brett Myers to a 1-year $7 million contract:
So, Brett Myers is sort of a weird player. He has twice moved from the starting rotation to the bullpen, and now for a second time will move back to the rotation. Most pitchers would rather start than relieve, and Myers probably turned down some offers to pitch out of the bullpen in order to sign with the Indians. The Tribe looks to be filling rotation spots with cheaper veterans rather than promote prospects. This comes from a lack of MLB ready, or close to MLB ready pitching prospects. The team recently traded for Trevor Bauer, and he will compete for a rotation spot, but most likely, if he doesn't impress, Bauer will begin the season in triple A. Myers is a solid innings eater, a solid #5 or possibly #4 starter who isn't flashy, but gets you through 6 innings of work most of the time. When tagged as a starter, Myers has thrown at least 190 innings in every season but one. That consistency combined with a very sparse injury history, and a low price tag made Myers the perfect target for the Indians. He has a typical four-pitch arsenal of fastball, curveball, slider, changeup, with the curveball acting as his best strikeout pitch. Myers has shifted from the four-seam fastball to a sinker in recent years, causing his ability to induce ground balls to go up in the latter half of his career. Myers has learned some better control recently, lowering his BB% from 2 to 3 percentage points in the last 3 seasons. The Indians aren't looking for anything spectacular from Myers, but they also aren't paying him for more than a 1.0 WARP value. If the Indians fall out of the playoff picture by the trade deadline, look for Myers to be dealt as he isn't owed very much money, and isn't signed past 2013.
My Grade: B (This deal isn't special. If the Indians perform well, Myers looks like a steal at $7 million, but if they falter, he might garner a utility infield prospect.)

Rangers sign RHP Jason Frasor to a 1-year $1.5 million contract:
The Rangers lost two important cogs in their bullpen this offseason. Both Mike Adams, now a Phillie, and Koji Uehara, now in Boston, moved eastward away from balmy Arlington for colder pastures. In addition, Neftali Feliz looks to have made a permanent move to the starting rotation, and Alexei Ogando could find himself a starter in 2013 as well. The Rangers already added righty Joakim Soria earlier this offseason, but this deal is different. Soria pitches well against both righties and lefties, making him valuable enough to sign a multiyear contract for $8 million. Frasor has a lot of difficulties getting lefties out (4.06 career FIP), but fairs better than average against right-handed hitters (3.60 career FIP). At $1.5 million, Frasor could put up similar numbers to his 2012 campaign and still be worth this contract. Look for the Rangers to possibly add one more reliever to sure up their bullpen. Texas starters Colby Lewis and Neftali Feliz are both coming back from Tommy John surgeries, with Lewis expected back mid-season and Feliz towards September. These injuries force Alexei Ogando into the rotation and leave a hole in the bullpen, one that Frasor looks to fill.
My Grade: B+ (The Rangers needed a veteran reliever on the cheap, and they seem to have found their man.)

Dodgers sign LHP J.P. Howell to a $2.85 million contract:

J.P. Howell

The Rays discovered J.P. Howell, putting him in the bullpen where he thrived. Howell has performed well against lefties, but doesn't lose that much when facing righties. Many thought the Rays would resign Howell, but given his 2011-2012 value, the Rays might have been looking for a cheaper deal than almost $3 million. Only the Rays, and maybe the A's, have to worry about minute amounts of money like signing a reliever to a 1-year $3 million contract. The Dodgers have already added to their bullpen with the signing of Brandon League, albeit an overpay, but lost LHP Randy Choate to the Cardinals. Most likely, this lefty loss led L.A. to go after J.P. Howell. The Dodgers have deep pockets and a desire to win ASAP, so Howell probably wasn't attracting offers for more than $2 million before the Dodgers swooped in and outbid everyone. Howell is a solid pitcher who joins Scott Elbert as the two lefties in the Dodgers' pen. PECOTA and the Bill James projections see Howell outperforming his $2.85 million contract. He'll get a lot of work against lefties, and should prove his worth in pitcher friendly Chavez Ravine.
My Grade: B (If the Dodgers had to outbid other teams to get Howell, then this contract looks a little worse than I originally thought, but since most projections show Howell to outperform his current 2013 pecuniary value, I see this as a solid deal for both sides.)

Lance Berkman

Rangers sign 1B/DH Lance Berkman to a 1-year $10 million contract:
I previously wrote that that the perfect fit for Lance Berkman in 2013 would be in Tampa Bay. I sorely underestimated how much money teams would be willing to pay the soon-to-be 37 year old coming off of knee and calf injuries in 2012. Berkman has been very productive in his career, hitting for a career slash line of .296/.409/.544. Notice his incredibly high on base percentage and slugging percentage. Berkman is a duel threat at the plate, getting on base and hitting for power. The Big Puma has 360 career home runs and hasn't put up a wRC+ lower than 114 since his rookie season of 1999. Berkman was always a staple in Houston as part of the buzzing b's. He is a switch-hitter, who performs demonstratively better from the left side of the plate, but holds his own vs. left-handed pitching knocking southpaws around for a career .342 wOBA. Berkman has only two factors working against him, his age and recent injury history. PECOTA projects Berkman to be worth 3.0 WARP in 2013 and 2.2 WARP in 2014. The Rangers hope Berkman will fill the designated hitter role, smashing balls into the stands in right-field in hitter and home run friendly Texas. If Berkman produces the way PECOTA and Bill James (.279/.389/.485) expect he will, the $10 million price tag will look like a steal. If Berkman fails to hit 20 home runs and only plays in 70 games, it will look like a waste, but of only 1 to 2 million dollars.
My Grade: A- (The Rangers have a very right-handed lineup, so Berkman's power from the left side is a much needed upgrade. Berkman returns to Texas (he played most of his career for the Astros) instead of retiring, and should produce if healthy.)

Okay, you got me, none of these signings are monumental, but don't discount them as negligible. Howell, Frasor, and Gonzalez should all contribute to bullpens without needing to be the keystones, while Ross joins a well-stocked outfield in hitter friendly Arizona. The Rangers and Nolan Ryan apparently sought after Lance Berkman so much that Ryan flew to see Berkman in order to convince him to play in 2013, and do so for the Texas Rangers. Brett Myers is the true mundane signing of the bunch, but even he could prove interesting if traded mid-season. Look for January and February to be busy months on the MLB hot stove with Michael Bourn, Kyle Lohse, Adam LaRoche, and Shaun Marcum still unsigned and numerous trade-possible players still out there. Oh, and remember, only 37 more days until pitchers & catchers report. 

Leading by Example, and in Other Ways

What makes an athlete a leader? Is it being a veteran presence on a team of youngsters, an individual charged with making decisions that affect others, or is it simply a person followed by others? All of these definitions are possibilities, but in sports leadership comes in many forms. On high school and college teams, coaches usually designate certain players, generally the more talented or more veteran ones, as captains. When a coach designates a player the captain, it means that athlete is an extension of the coach. In football, quarterbacks are often dubbed captains because they lead the offense like a general leads his troops. He shouts out commands, keeps his soldiers safe, and attempts to make the right decisions to lead them to victory.

Interestingly, the idea of choosing a captain does not pertain to every professional sport. In Football and Hockey, captains prove important. As noted above, the quarterback leads the offense, and thus earns the title captain. In Hockey, the team elects a captain, and two assistant captains to serve as the team's representatives to speak to the referees when necessary. This responsibility usually extends to off-ice activities as well, such as giving motivational speeches and keeping a copacetic atmosphere amongst teammates.

While Hockey and Football embrace the idea of one player as the captain, Baseball and Basketball do not. Basketball, which constitutes more of a team sport than does Baseball, does everything but name a captain.  No one would disagree that Michael Jordan was the leader of the Chicago Bulls, doing so through his play on the court as well as his leadership off of it. Stars make up the NBA, with players like LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, and Derek Rose leading there team's by being the best players on the court. This leads to players such as these taking the "big" shots, and guarding the toughest offensive player on the opposing team in key situations.  As fans, we understand who are the leaders of NBA teams. When in doubt though, the general assumption is that the player who sets things in motion is the leader, and in Basketball that player is the point guard.

In Baseball, rarely does a team, which is made up of 25 players, name a captain. The leader of a Major League Baseball team is most often considered the manager. The manager is, in today's game, never a player. Baseball, although undeniably a team sport, does not compare in it's individualism to the other three major American sports.  Pitchers pitch, catchers catch, outfielders roam specifically designated  zones, and every batter has his own goal and his own discrete actions. In Basketball and Hockey, the ball or puck moves from player to player in order to attain a common goal. Football constitutes the ultimate team sport because on any given play the players on the field must work together to achieve their goals.

So, can one player truly change the game in Baseball? That is generally the case in the three other major sports. I took a look at two players in Major League Baseball who I think disproportionately mean more to their team than can be quantified in a statistic. The only way to describe this value is leadership. The two players are Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins and Rays third baseman Evan Longoria.

I'm not sure every baseball fan has noticed this, but Jimmy Rollins has quietly turned in an impressive career while occupying the space between second and third base for the Phillies the last 12 years. Rollins' career fWAR places him with the likes of fellow shortstops, Tony Fernendez, Omar Vizquel, Dave Concepcion, and Maury Wills.  Rollins recently became the 5th Phillie all time to reach 2,000 hits, and he has never played for a team other than the Phillies. While most Philadelphia fans will tell you they consider Rollins to be the leader of the Phillies, especially since he won the National League's Most Valuable Player in 2007, not many Baseball fans, those from Philadelphia included, understand just how important Rollins is to the Phillies success.

Here is some perspective for you.  As of September 12th, the Phillies have played 143 games this season compiling a 72-71 record.  Rollins' mere presence in the Phillies lineup does not give the Phillies a better chance to win, but when the Phils leadoff hitter scores a run, that changes.  Rollins has played in 140 of the Phillies 143 games this season, and has scored at least one run in 68 of those 140 games.  The Phillies have a record of 43-25 in games in which Jimmy Rollins scores at least one run. That record leads to a winning percentage of 0.632, which is higher than any team's current winning percentage this season. Ready to have your mind blown away completely? In the 72 games this season in which Rollins has failed to cross home plate the Phillies have lost 44 of them. That's a .389 winning percentage, which is worse than every MLB team this season except for the woeful Houston Astros. What is more interesting, is that in the 15 games that which Rollins has scored more than 1 run, the Phillies are 14-1. Another interesting fact is that while Rollins has gotten on base in 112 our of his 140 games played this year, the team doesn't win a disproportionate amount of those game in which Rollins reaches 1st base safely.

Let's take a look at this from a different angle. The Phillies have recently gone on a winning spree. From August 23rd to September 12th, the Phillies have played 19 games and won 15 of them. Rollins has scored a run in 11 games and failed to do so in 8 of them.  In those games during this winning streak in which Rollins has scored a run, the Phillies are 10-1, while the team has a record of 5-3 in games in which Rollins hasn't scored. During the winning streak, whether Rollins scored a run or not, Jimmy is leading the Phillies with his all-around play. As a comparison, I looked at one of the Phillies losing streaks this season. Between the dates of June 27th and July 20th, the Phillies played 18 games, compiling a dismal record of 5-13. Rollins scored a run in 10 of the 18 games played during this losing streak. In the 10 games in which he scored a run, the Phillies played .500 baseball, winning 5 games and losing 5. On the other hand, when Rollins failed to score, the Phillies went 0-8.

Here is how Rollins played during the recent winning streak as well as the mid-season skid:

	2012 Season	Winning Streak (Aug 23rd-Sept 12th)	Losing Streak (June 27th-July 20th)
Batting Avg	0.249	0.324	0.225
On Base %	0.307	0.373	0.304
Slugging %	0.423	0.595	0.423

Next, I found a player whose mere presence in the lineup changes the way his team plays.  His name is Evan Longoria, and he plays third base for the Tampa Bay Rays. In only his 5th season in the big leagues, Longoria has already accumulated 28.1 fWAR, which is comprable to the first 5 seasons of fellow third basemen George Brett and Chipper Jones. Due to a hamstring injury, Longoria has only played in 55 of the Rays 142 games this season. As of September 12th the Rays had compiled a record of 77-65. The Rays have played 87 games without their star third baseman this season, going 43-44 during that time.  That's one game under .500 for a team that, going into Thursday's game, was 12 games above .500. Without Longoria even in the lineup, the Rays managed a meager .223 batting average, .304 on base percentage, and a weak .351 slugging percentage.  

Next, let's look at how the Rays played with Longoria in the lineup. This time is represented in two bunches.  From the beginning of the season until Longoria landed on the disabled list just before the beginning of May, and from his return to the lineup on August 7th to the present day.  In April, the team batted .254 with a .334 on base percentage, and a .429 slugging percentage. So, just having Longoria in the lineup, added 31 percentage points to the team's batting average, 30 points to their on-base percentage, and a whopping 78 percentage points to the team's slugging percentage. More importantly, the Rays went 15-8 in April, which is a 0.652 winning percentage.  

You're probably telling yourself, that the Rays wining ways of April might not be caused by Longoria's presence. Well let me put this argument in the end zone. When Longoria returned from the disabled list, the Rays immediately began winning. The Rays record since Longoria's return is 19-13, which is a .593 winning percentage.  Not only that, but the Rays instantly improved in batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. From August 7th to September 12th, the Rays have had a .265 batting average, .326 on base percentage, and a .447 slugging percentage.  Longoria's mere presence in the lineup causes the entire team to play better and thus win more games. I agree that the reason the Rays have won recently hasn't been the play of Evan Longoria, but instead it is attributed to the great starting pitching and recent power streak of B.J. Upton. Consequently, one cannot merely look at the difference in the Ray's play with and without their stud third baseman and not think that the team wins more with his name on the starting lineup card than when he resides on the pine.   

Jimmy Rollins makes a big difference to the Phillies when his productivity rises, and even more impressive, Evan Longoria's presence in the lineup improves his team's chances of winning. Explaining the correlation between Rollins and the Phillies winning ways proves a much easier task than explaining the relationship between Longoria and the Rays. Rollins, the Phillies leadoff hitter, has a responsibility to set the table for the rest of the Phillies lineup. While Rollins' on base percentage has never been incredible good in comparison to the rest of the National League, let alone in comparison to other leadoff hitters, if Rollins isn't on base he can't score runs, and as we proved before, when Jimmy scores the Phils have a better chance of winning.

Jimmy Rollins' OBP Over the Years in Comparison to the League Average

Here is an interesting thought. If Rollins got a hit in every game of the season, his batting average would be somewhere between .200 and .250, which we can all agree is not very good for an everyday player.  His on-base percentage would probably be somewhere between .280 and .320, which only at the upper end is passable. Let's say that on he scores a run in every game he plays. So, with a .250 batting average and .310 on base percentage he still scores once-a-game, and the Phillies end up with a great record. His statistics don't look like those of a great, let alone good, leadoff hitter, but he's doing what it takes to help his team win. That, more than anything, is the sign of a true team leader.

Leadership comes in many forms. The Jimmy Rollins example, is an illustration of a leader through production, but Evan Longoria helps his team win just by being healthy enough to play. No matter how he plays, the Rays seem to play better baseball when he plays with them. That is, without a doubt, the definition of an unquantifiable value that I am dubbing as leadership added. Longoria's presence in the lineup changes the way that pitchers pitch to the hitters around him, and his consistent hard-nosed play both in the field and at the dish set an example for the rest of the Rays act accordingly. In addition, the Rays' roster feels more comfortable and optimistic about their chances of winning, no matter the opponent, when Evan Longoria is penciled in the lineup. Few other players in the Majors have as much influence in this manner as Longoria. Longoria steps up at the biggest moments, a quality most people would atribute to true leaders. Last season, in the final game of the year, with the Red Sox having already lost, and the Rays needing a win to complete an historic comeback to make the playoffs, it was Longoria hitting the walk-off game-winning home run. While Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter is the only player given the title captain in all of baseball, I think that no one deserves it more than the Rays' third baseman. 

Coming Down the Home Stretch

Folks, we've made it. It's September, which, if you didn't know, is one month before October.  I know, fantastic deductive reasoning on my part.  But, in all seriousness, the plane that is the Major League Baseball regular season is about to land at gate P.  P of course stands for playoffs.  Before we lop off 30% of the teams, there are still 3 more weeks worth of Baseball to watch and enjoy.

Rays Evan Longoria

Let's begin in the daunting American League East.  With most pundits predicting that this would be a three-team race between the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox, the landscape has changed, replacing the Red Sox with the Orioles. No, that wasn't a typo; the Baltimore Orioles are in play to possibly win the AL East.  Going into games on September 10th, the Orioles are officially 1 game back of the New York Yankees for first place in the division.  That sounds great, except the Tampa Bay Rays have caught fire since Evan Longoria has returned, putting them only one game behind the O's, and thus 2 games behind the Yankees.

Since Longoria returned from a hamstring injury on August 7th, the Rays have gone 21-11.  No matter how many intangibles make up the success of a Baseball team, 99.9% of the time they pale in comparison to quantifiable data. The 0.1% is made up solely of Evan Longoria.  When he is in the lineup, the team responds by playing much better baseball. I've honestly never seen anything like it.  Longoria is the definition of an X-factor, something that neither the Yankees nor the Orioles possess.  If the Rays make the playoffs, they are the team I would want to face the least in a 7-game series.

Trout, leaping to rob a home run

Moving on from AL East, we have an amazing anomaly in the American League to discuss.  Mike Trout is leading the American League in Wins Above Replacement, no matter how you calculate it.

Mike Trout
fWAR	8.4
rWAR	9.9
WARP	7.5

Despite the fact that the Angels have underperformed their talent level this season, Mike Trout has emerged as far and away the top player in the League.  No other Major Leaguer has the combination of skills and performance that Trout provides.  According to www.fangraphs.com Mike Trout has been worth $37.8 million.  Obviously, no player makes that much money per season, but since Trout is being paid $480,000 this season, while Ryan Howard is making $25 million this season but has an fWAR of -0.5 worth $2.2 million.  Wow.  It's the only word I can think of to describe that juxtaposition.  

In the National League, the most popular story recently has been the limitations put on Nationals star pitcher Stephen Strasburg.  General Manager Mike Rizzo proclaimed earlier this season that due to Strasburg's recent Tommy John Surgery, which kept him from playing most of the 2011 season, Strasburg would be shut down for the season after pitching about 160.0 innings.  The shut down includes the playoffs, an obvious destination for the Nationals who currently lead the National League East by 5.5 games over the Atlanta Braves and 17.5 over third place Philadelphia.  

Nationals RHP Stephen Strasburg

When asked, most former Major Leaguers call the innings limit ridiculous.  When asked by reporters Strasburg displayed an air of frustration, but in the end none of those people get to make the decision.  The doctors told GM Mike Rizzo to limit Strasburg's use following surgery, and he is following protocol.  Sure, he's taking the cautious route, but wouldn't you? The Nationals/Expos have not been relevant in any discussion of the playoffs since the early 90's, but with a young core of stud players, the team looks like a possible playoff team for a many years to come.  In light of that fact, Rizzo, the rest of the Nats front office, and the owners have made the decision to shut down their star pitcher in the hopes he remains a star for many more seasons.

The biggest storyline, that isn't being talked about, is the dominance of the National League amongst top players.  Using fWAR, 4 out of the top 15 players in the Major Leagues are in the National League.  Mike Trout has an 8.4 fWAR, but after him, it's almost all National Leaguers. 

Name	Team	WAR
Mike Trout	Angels	8.4
Ryan Braun	Brewers	7.3
David Wright	Mets	6.6
Michael Bourn	Braves	6.3
Andrew McCutchen	Pirates	6.1
Jason Heyward	Braves	6.1
Chase Headley	Padres	6.1
Robinson Cano	Yankees	5.9
Miguel Cabrera	Tigers	5.9
Buster Posey	Giants	5.8
Aramis Ramirez	Brewers	5.5
Yadier Molina	Cardinals	5.4
Adrian Beltre	Rangers	5.4
Giancarlo Stanton	Marlins	5
Matt Holliday	Cardinals	5

  I'm not exactly sure what this says about the two leagues, but I know that the American League is not as behind the National League as this chart shows.  If one were to look at the winning percentages of teams in each league, the NL and AL are overall about equal.  This equivalency is portrayed in pitching statistics.  When looking at fWAR amongst pitchers, the numbers look as follows: 

Name	Team	WAR
Justin Verlander	Tigers	5.8
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	5.8
Gio Gonzalez	Nationals	4.9
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	4.9
Johnny Cueto	Reds	4.6
R.A. Dickey	Mets	4.4
Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	4.3
Chris Sale	White Sox	4.2
Zack Greinke	- - -	4.2
Wade Miley	Diamondbacks	4.2
David Price	Rays	4.1
Max Scherzer	Tigers	4
Adam Wainwright	Cardinals	4
Yu Darvish	Rangers	4
Jake Peavy	White Sox	4
Cliff Lee	Phillies	3.9
Josh Johnson	Marlins	3.8
Matt Cain	Giants	3.7
CC Sabathia	Yankees	3.7
Madison Bumgarner	Giants	3.6

9 of the 20 pitchers on that list currently pitch in the American League.  That is just under 50% and thus shows little difference between the two leagues as far as pitching is concerned.  Since pitching has been proven to be the dominating force in the Majors the last few seasons, I would say this list is a better predictor than the list of position players.

The most interesting races to watch as the season comes to an end include the American League East, National League West, and both leagues' wild card teams.  With the addition of a second wild card spot in each league, and the fact that the two wild card winners play a one-game playoff to determine who moves on, winning the division has incredible significance.  

Predictions are fun, so let's make some. I predict that the Tampa Bay Rays, due to their stellar starting pitching and X-factor (see above for more information), will win the AL East with the Yankees and Orioles taking the wild card spots.  That leaves the Oakland Athletics, who have been an amazing story, out, as well as the LA Angels.  The White Sox will hold on to win the AL Central, and more obviously, the Rangers will win the AL West.  

In the National League I predict the Nationals to win the east, the Reds to win the west and the Giants to hold on to win the West.  I see the Braves holding on to win one wild card spot, but while I want to choose the Pirates to make the playoffs for the first time since 1992, I'm instead going with the LA Dodgers to take the second NL wild card spot.  

No matter what, the race to the finish should prove exciting.