Who Get's The Big Fish?

Prince Fielder

Baseball fans rejoice. We've almost made of through the long, difficult, and trying winter with little to no live Baseball to watch. Free agency merely gives the most dedicated and starving Baseball fan a bit of respite, but it only satisfies us enough to bridge the gap of the offseason until Spring Training facilities open and Baseball is officially deemed "open for business". 4 days remain until pitchers and catcher's report to either Florida or Arizona, and another few weeks until their teammates join them. While most players have had their plane reservations booked for weeks, some players' destinations continue to remain unknown. Free agency doesn't stop just because Baseball fans, players, coaches, and executives can see the Promised Land from across the Jordan River. No, instead agents, front offices, and owners work diligently to find the last missing piece to the puzzle.

Recently the Oakland Athletics deal Chris Carter, Brad Peacock, and Max Stassi to the Astros in exchange for Jed Lowrie an a bullpen pitcher. So, not only does Free Agency continue up to the start of the season, but team's will always be looking to improve by exchange. While predicting a trade is virtually impossible without, and sometimes even with inside information, speculating on the possible destinations for the remaining free agents becomes more and more fascinating every minute we move closer and closer to the promised land that is Opening Day.

Michael Bourn:

Michael Bourn

Since the October, numerous pundits have predicted that Bourn would be the Prince Fielder of the 2013 offseason. Last year, Fielder, one of the top 3 free agents of 2012, remained unsigned until January 26th, when the Detroit Tigers and Dave Dombrowski moved their chips, $214 million worth to be exact, into the pot. The Tigers landed Fielder, which not only helped Miguel Cabrera become the first player to win the Triple Crown since 1967, but made Detroit a power house team. The Tigers reached the World Series, and while they lost, few Baseball people would bash that massive contract due to Fielder's predicted value, current value, and the huge push he gave the franchise as a whole.

Is Michael Bourn Prince Fielder? No, I think we can all categorically say the two are quite different. Fielder is a bull of a man with incredible power to all fields while Bourn is a small scrappy contact hitter with lightning fast speed. Power doesn't diminish into a player's 30's as quickly as speed does, making teams even more wary in the face of a long-term high price tag deal with Bourn. In addition, the market this offseason was stocked with talented outfielders making negotiations for a contract difficult, and causing teams to use prospect instead of cash to attain outfield help. The Nationals traded for Denard Span, the Phillies for Ben Revere, and the Braves for Justin Upton. So, where does that leave Michael Bourn? Bourn is a player completely built around his speed and ability to get on base. In addition he brings superb defense in the outfield, closing on balls with great speed, combined with a very good first step, solid leaping ability, and an above average arm.

	OBP	SB	SB %	DRS	UZR
2009	0.354	61	83.5%	11	9.9
2010	0.341	52	81.3%	30	19.4
2011	0.349	61	81.3%	-3	-6.4
2012	0.348	42	76.4%	24	22.4

As you can see from this chart, Bourn gets on base with regularity, consistently putting up numbers above the league average (.315 in 2012). Bourn recently turned 30 years old, generally a harbinger of an attrition of production, which accelerates if built on speed rather than power.

It's possible that Bourn could still attain the type of contract that he and mega agent Scott Boras wanted in November, something in the neighborhood of 5+ seasons and $100 million, that possibility dwindles every second we get closer to Spring Training. More reasonable figures being reported recently have put Bourn in a 3-year deal with an AAV of $15 million or so. Most sabermetricians and pundits would tell you that, for example, a contract of 3-years $46 million with a vesting option for a 4th year that would be worth $16 Million, and a buyout of $3 million would be reasonable to acquire Michael Bourn. So, in essence, the player, in this case Bourn, overvalued himself in a saturated market, and now that there is a definite time frame established, the player is adapting to the market in order to come to a conclusion. This is market economics, it's one reason of having no salary cap enhances Baseball's image as opposed to making the players look greedy and overpaid. Bourn turned down the Braves' qualifying offer in November, making him less appealing to teams that would be forced to lose a draft pick as part of acquiring the speedy outfielder. It also makes teams more likely to want to negotiate a multi-year deal with Bourn, so as to get more out of him, making up for the future of a lost 1st-round draft pick. So, while some reports have team's looking to sign Bourn to a 1-year deal, I don't see it as likely unless said team wouldn't be forced to give up a draft pick.

Team's that could still be fits for Bourn include the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles, and Seattle Mariners. The Mets have no legitimate outfielders currently on the roster. While the team has worked hard to build up depth in the infield and starting rotation, the outfield has been untended to, unless you count Jason Bay, but that attempt officially failed when the Mets dropped Bay from their roster. While Bourn fits a big need for the Mets, he would likely not boost them into a playoff spot, so spending a high AAV even for 2-3 seasons may not be worth it for Sandy Alderson and his bunch. There is still a slight possibility the Mets will be allowed to retain their first round pick even if they were to ink Bourn to a deal, but MLB has yet to rule on the situation. Most likely, the Mets would have to forfeit that pick, making them even less likely to go after Bourn.

 The Phillies have many more reasons to like Bourn. Ruben Amaro finds himself with a high payroll, older team, and 2 platoons at the corner outfield spot. He also sees a division that just got tougher, due to recent acquisitions made by the Nationals and Braves, and a team on the cusp of the playoffs in the Phillies. The Phillies already have a leadoff type hitter in Ben Revere, as well as an aging but still viable Jimmy Rollins, so, you might be asking yourself, why the Phillies would want another speedy player. Adding Bourn would give the Phillies the "2003 Juan Pierre/Luis Castillo" look at the top of their lineup, essentially providing the muscle in the lineup with more and more opportunities to hit with runners on base and in scoring position. In addition, Bourn's defense would make playing inept defenders like Delmon Young and Darin Ruf in the outfield. Bourn came up with the Phillies, knows the organization well and would be a valuable asset to the Phillies. The question all comes down to money. If Ruben Amaro is willing to pay a higher AAV in order to get Bourn to agree to a shorter deal, it would be worth signing him, giving up their first round pick, but if Bourn demands more than 3 years, the Phillies should continue to use restraint.

The Rangers lost Josh Hamilton this offseason to rival LA. Hamilton may not have played much longer in centerfield had he stayed in Texas, meaning that the team was always willing to go with the combination of Craig Gentry and Leonys Martin in centerfield. If Jon Daniels signed Bourn, he would most likely play the majority in center field in 2013, and even 2014, but moved to a corner spot not long after the All-Star break in 2014. Bourn doesn't have power, so he won't benefit from Arlington's home run tendencies, but the combination of Bourn, Elvis Andrus and, eventually Jurickson Profar in the 9-1-2 spots would be incredibly difficult to stop, and would neutralize ground ball innings eaters like the ones recently signed by the Angels. The Rangers have money to spend, and given the state of their farm system, losing a draft pick wouldn't cause too much strife. In the end here, it comes down to the price tag. If Bourn is willing to lessen some standards the Rangers could be on board, but otherwise I wouldn't bet on Daniels blinking first.

The Orioles have the ability to benefit greatly from an acquisition involving Michael Bourn. While the Orioles already have a talented young center fielder in Adam Jones, Bourn would buttress Baltimore's defensive outfield by playing in right, moving Nick Markakis to platoon with Nolan Reimold in left field. For a team many think will regress in 2013, adding Bourn could keep them in contention for longer, possibly long enough to return to the playoffs. Fangraphs recently released the Steamer projections for 2013. An outfield with Bourn, Jones, and a platoon of Markakis and Reimold is project to look like this:

	HR	SB	wOBA
Bourn	6	35	0.309
Jones	28	9	0.347
Markakis	17	4	0.351
Reimold	16	6	0.332
Total	67	54	0.335

While the platoon in left would cause both Markakis' and Reimold's numbers to decrease a little due to less playing time, the DH spot allows for manager Buck Showalter to keep them in the lineup even if they don't have a spot in the field. The combination of a full year in the majors for Manny Machado, the prospect of Dylan Bundy coming up to the big club mid-season, and the addition of Bourn to the outfield would be the perfect counter punch to the Rays' trade for Will Myers, and Red Sox flurry of signings, and the Blue Jays Miami buying extravaganza.

The Mariners are a fit for Bourn because they are without a good lineup, and Bourn might put some more fans butts in seats. GM Jack Zduriencik had made some questionable decisions of recent, but no one would blame him for trying to sign Bourn. Seattle can spend some money, and Bourn might provide the young Mariners hitters with a runner on base more often when they hit. Bourn might only consider a long-term deal with the Mariners since so much of their success is tied up in their core young players. The Mariners aren't winning anything in 2013 with or without Bourn, so signing him all comes down to pressure from ownership, and to a much lesser extent to look active and not portray an air of dejection. 

Kyle Lohse:

Kyle Lohse

Then there's Kyle Lohse. Lohse is the best starting pitcher left on the market, but unlike Bourn, many predicted Lohse would have trouble finding a team. For more on why teams might be wary to sign Lohse read Glenn DuPaul's editorial on the issue here. Lohse looks to regress heavily in 2013, is asking for a hefty sized AAV, and will cost the team that signs him a draft pick having turned down the Cardinals qualifying offer. He's a solid pitcher, with a solid track record, but he's already undergone serious arm surgery in his career, is in his 30's, and doesn't have a power arm. Lohse constitutes the definition of a player who is the "last piece" to a team. Raphael Soriano, recently signed by the Nats constituted he same. Both are expensive cars that a guy would never buy until he's older, rich, and already enjoying life. He's the "cherry on top", not the foundational ice cream. So, where could he land? 

According to multiple projections systems, Lohse's 2013 numbers should look in the neighborhood of these numbers: 

	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA	FIP
2013	194	5.67	2.04	0.91	3.85	3.86

While those numbers may not be worth $10 million AAV and the loss of a draft pick, to a playoff team hoping to put themselves in the preseason conversation of World Series possibility, Lohse could very well be worth it. Teams like that include the Rangers and Cardinals with the Pirates and Brewers also in the conversation. 

The Rangers are a team that many thought would be active this offseason, but have continued to lie in wait until they pounce. Still, Lohse could make sense for the Rangers. Signing Lohse would allow the team to trade prospect Martin Perez, a player many teams would be interested in acquiring. If the Rangers could use Perez to get an outfielder like Dexter Fowler, or with a better set of prospects, Carlos Gonzalez, the Rangers could move back into a better position in the AL West. Lohse might not fair incredibly well in Arlington, but half a team's games are played on the road, and Lohse would be the 4th starter, a veteran presence, but not an ace. 

The Cardinals recently found out that they have lost Chris Carpenter for the season, and he still may retire. The cardinals have the best farm system in the Majors, and have no need to fill Carp's spot with a free agent. Trevor Rosenthal, Joe Kelly, Shelby Miller, and Lance Lynn would compete for the 4th and 5th spots with Carpenter gone. In addition, Jaime Garcia may not be ready for Opening Day, so those four pitchers could compete for 3 Opening Day rotation slots. The Cardinals have a lot of internal and cheap options, but re-signing Lohse could work for them. Lohse liked playing in St. Louis, which most consider to be a desirable place to play. The Cardinals don't need him, but adding Lohse could better their odds of winning the NL Central. 

The Pirates don't need Kyle Lohse, but his addition could prove fruitful. The Pirates have been on the cusp of making the playoffs for the last 2 seasons. They have the talent to play like a playoff team for 3/4 of the season, but not all of it, causing the Buccos to be on the outside looking in in October. With Gerrit Cole expected to make his debut this season, and the possible addition of Lohse, the Pirates could put themselves squarely ahead of the Brewers and right in the wheelhouse of the Reds/Cardinals for 2013 and more likely 2014. The Pirates probably don't want to increase payroll, especially after recently adding Francisco Liriano and Jonathan Sanchez, but If Neal Huntington wanted to take a risk it might be worth it here. I wouldn't count on this happening, but it is good to see the Buccos in a position to possibly win something.

The Brewers recently lost Cory Hart, due to injury, for the first part of the 2013 season. They have almost the least amount of pitching depth in the starting rotation of any NL team, and they have had a quiet offseason. In addition, the team is in danger of falling into 4th in the Central this season, and that is without the awful Astros to make them look better. Lohse would provide them with someone to go behind Yovani Gallardo, but it would be a patch up job with potential issues all over the place. Doug Melvin isn't a GM to sign a guy just to sign him; the Brewers only go after Lohse if they make an ancillary move. This team needs their 1st round draft pick too much to make a serious contract to Kyle Lohse. 

Both Bourn and Lohse come with more risk attached to them than any other free agent, making GM's circumspect when evaluating them as possible acquisitions. Boras found Prince Fielder $200+ million on January 26th, but neither Bourn nor Lohse have the value that Prince Fielder did. Given their lesser status, I predict Bourn to sign within the next next 2 weeks at 3-4 years and a contract between $50-65 million. Lohse a few days after Bourn for 3 years and $24 million. Recently I've been having an inner conflict between my hear and my brain concerning free agent signings, so to appease both body parts I'll report both outcomes. My brain says Bourn goes to Texas while my heart says he fits best in Baltimore. As for Mr. Lohse, my brain says the Cardinals re-sign him, but my heart thinks he fits best in Pittsburgh. These are the two top players left on the market, they represent the scraps of Baseball we continue to cling to until very soon, Baseball officially returns, and all Baseball fans can emerge from their torpor. Opening Day is coming; we just have to have a little more patience. 

Taming the Wild

George Kottaras

Today the Kansas City Royals announced that they had claimed catcher George Kottaras off of waivers. Kottaras isn't a household name, but the move made me look into whether this was a good fit, or whether the Royals had another motive. Kottaras has played at least part-time in the Majors since 2009, playing in a career high 85 games last season. In his limited role, Kottaras has faced mostly right-handed pitching. He bats from the left-side, and has the typical platoon splits of a hitter with tools at the plate, but who has difficulty hitting MLB breaking balls off of lefties. Kottaras began the 2012 season in Milwaukee, but half way through the season, the Brewers traded him to the Oakland Athletics. The Athletics recently participated in a three-way trade that sent Michael Morse to Seattle and John Jaso to Oakland. Jaso's value has been written about extensively, but lost in that deal was Kottaras.

 Kottaras is an average hitter, with a career wOBA of .322. On the other hand, over the last two seasons, as Kottaras has played more games, his OPS+ has been above average, 107 in 2011 and 108 in 2012. He hasn't hit many home runs, but his isolated power split is vast. Kottaras has posted a .209 ISO against right-handed pitching but only a .129 ISO vs. lefties. While this fact isn't dissimilar from many left-handed hitters, a closer look using pitch F/X data shows that Kottaras has an affinity to hit pitches in the upper portion of the strike zone against right-handed pitching for power. In fact, despite the adage that left-handed hitters are good low-ball hitters, Kottaras seems to be a better hitter against balls that are up in the strike zone against both righties and lefties. Overall, Kottaras looks like a hitter who is beginning to figure some things out at the plate. He is able to get on base against both righties and lefties, but shows impressive power numbers against only righties. This combination is enough to get him a back-up catching job, but I think something else caused the Royals to snag the former Athletic off of waivers.

Kottaras isn't a great defensive catcher, posting a slightly negative defensive rating according to Fangraphs in 2012. In fact, he has never posting a positive defensive rating. Fangraphs calculates their defensive for catchers based on two major statistics, rSB and RPP, with rSB accounting for a catcher's need to throw out base runners well and RPP accounting for a catcher's ability to block balls in the dirt. Teams that have pitchers who don't have good pick-off moves or are slow to the plate need catchers with good rSB's in order to counteract their pitchers' deficiencies. If a team's pitching staff has pitchers with erratic control and propensities for throwing breaking balls with lots of movement, said team would want a catcher with good RPP numbers. While Kottaras hasn't posted very good rSB numbers, his RPP numbers have been positive since 2010. In fact, since 2010, Kottaras ranks 13th amongst all MLB catchers in RPP, ahead of names like Jonathan Lucroy, John Buck, and Kurt Suzuki, and just behind Ivan Rodriguez, Buster Posey, and Jason Kendall. Given these numbers, a team whose pitchers have a proclivity for being wild would benefit far more from Kottaras's services as opposed to a pitching staff with pinpoint control.

Given Kottaras' talents for blocking balls in the dirt, it stands to reason that the Brewers wouldn't want to let him leave, especially since the Brewers' pitching staff was 9th in the league in wild pitches in 2012 and 3rd in the league in wild pitches since 2010. On the other hand, in 2012, both other catchers on the Brewers' roster, Jonathan Lucroy and Martin Maldonado also posted positive RPP's, making Kottaras expendable, but not worthless. In fact, it's that value that the Kansas City Royals may have picked up on. This offseason, the Royals made a significant trade, acquiring Wade Davis and James Shields from the Rays in exchange for a dynamic package of prospects. Both Davis and Shields will make immediate impacts, Shields as their ace pitcher, and Davis as either a back of the rotation starter or right-handed reliever out of the pen. In addition, the Royals also added righty Ervin Santana to their rotation. Santana is a strikeout pitcher with a hard fastball and knee-buckling slider that often ends up in the dirt. Shields and Santana both ranked in the 21 pitchers in the Majors since 2010 in wild pitches, and since 2008 Shields, Santana, and fellow Royals pitcher Luke Hochevar have ranked in the top 30 in wild pitches. Overall, it seems as the Royals would disproportionately benefit from a catcher who is above average at blocking balls in the dirt, especially since if Kansas City is going to make the playoffs for the first time since 1985 every positive addition, no matter how small, will make a difference.

Salvador Perez

Kansas City now has a dynamic duo of backstops, with both Kottaras and young stud Salvador Perez on the roster. Perez is the better hitter of the two, and has better overall defensive numbers. In fact, Perez excels defensively in areas at which Kottaras is lacking, and visa versa. Perez has a very strong arm, and very good mechanics behind the plate, but is just below average in blocking balls in the dirt. Since overall defensive ratings for catchers weight throwing out base runners as more important than blocking balls in the dirt, Perez looks like the better of the two, but by adding Kottaras into the mix, it gives the Royals affordable and talented defense behind the plate. Kottaras also adds some more veteran experience, a left-handed bat with good power, and allows the Royals not to stress Perez too much without giving up too much production. Look to see Kottaras play predominantly against right-handed pitching, but more importantly, look for him to catch when James Shields and Ervin Santana take the mound. I'm in no way saying that it is absolute, especially given that Salvador Perez's RPP numbers aren't awful, and given his age, there is the possibility that his RPP numbers can improve. For the time being, the Royals see Kottaras' skills as solid value added, especially since his 2013 salary is only $1 million and he isn't a free agent until the 2016 season.

Don't overlook signings or pickups like this one. Numerous other teams could have benefited from even 80 games worth of George Kottaras. One specific team that comes to mind is the Chicago White Sox. White Sox pitchers have thrown the 3rd most wild pitches in the Majors since 2010, and the team recently lost veteran catcher A.J. Pierzynski to free agency. Moreover, given Pierzynski's absence, the team is considering using youngster Tyler Flowers as their dominant catcher in 2013. Adding a more veteran left-handed hitting catcher who can handle erratic pitching would seem prudent. The White Sox play in the same division as the Royals, the Sox finished one spot ahead of KC in 2012, and they haven't undergone nearly as many positive renovations to their roster as the Royals have done. So, picking up Kottaras not only benefits the Royals directly, but also indirectly benefits them by not allowing the White Sox to pick him up. Who's to say the Sox would have picked up Kottaras, but he does fit their team incredibly well. Look for pitchers like James Shields and Ervin Santana to have slightly better strikeout numbers than they did in 2012. Some of that will be due to moving to a less talented division, but some may also come from their ability to throw any pitcher to get a hitter out without worrying that the ball may get away from their catcher. While trading for Shields and Santana were sexier and more productive moves, both come with risks, which the Royals are lessening by adding Kottaras to the mix. It's possible that the Royals will make the playoffs for the first time since the 1980's in 2013, but the odds are against them, so it's a good thing that George Kottaras, the forgotten catcher, now dons a royal and white uniform.

Every Move Counts

Generally in the Baseball offseason, the slowest time for transactions happens over the holidays, Christmas and New Years. General Managers and their staffs want to spend time with their family and friends, as do the players, agents, and their respective loved ones. So, the hot stove cools, and the fans (and pundits) are left with little to talk about. On the other hand, the entire industry does not come to a halt. Free agents still negotiate deals, trades are proposed, and players move from team to team. Here are some of the latest free agent signings.

Cody Ross

Diamondbacks sign OF Cody Ross to a 3-year $26 million contract: 
Where did this come from? Jason Kubel, Justin Upton, Gerrardo Para, Adam Eaton, and A.J. Pollock. This is the list of outfielders the Diamondbacks had at their disposal before signing outfielder Cody Ross to a 3-year contract. This, all after trading center fielder Chris Young to the Oakland Athletics. Basically, the Diamondbacks have stock piled the largest arsenal of outfielders we've ever seen. They have rookies, veterans, lefties, righties, power-hitters, speedsters, great defenders, and poor defenders. Missing an outfielder? If so, call Kevin Towers because anyone who doesn't play in the infield now resides in the desert. The reasons behind the Dbacks' decision to sign Cody Ross remain speculative at best. It puts the team in a position to keep all of these players, trade one, or trade more than one. The Diamondbacks play in hitter friendly Chase Field, which means they need a solid defensive outfield to take away opposing teams' hits, and great hitters to take advantage of the offensively-friendly confines.

Cody Ross is an interesting pickup. He's a right-handed hitting corner outfielder whose career has been above average, but nothing to call your mother about. In the last 3 seasons his numbers have followed his batting average on balls put in play. BABIP is a statistic that centers around a mean of .300, with exceptions for hitters that make their living purely on making contact with the ball.

	BABIP	Slash Line	wOBA	fWAR
2010	0.324	.269/.322/.413	0.322	2.3
2011	0.279	.240/.325/.405	0.321	1.0
2012	0.317	.267/.326/.481	0.345	2.4

When Ross' luck is better, his overall performance seems to improve, but when he hits balls in play at fielders, his production falters. Ross also has fairly distinctive righty/lefty splits. In his career, Ross's wRC+ against lefties is 141, well above the league average, but a meek 92 against righties. While Ross's offensive production falls in every category when looking at his splits vs. righties, his slugging percentage scuffles the most. In his career, Ross slugs .415 against right-handed pitchers, but a fantastic .575 against lefties. This split shows that Ross will play when a lefty takes the mound against the snakes. So, given his splits, it would seem that Ross would be a perfect fit for a platoon, but you may be wondering why a team would want to pay a player more than $8 million AAV to platoon with another player when a similar platoon option like Scott Hairston remains a free agent. Hairston comes at a cheaper cost, and there is no need to lock him up for multiple years, but the Diamondbacks probably preferred Ross to Hairston due to their difference in defensive ability. Cody hasn't been a star defender, but he's put up positive defensive runs saved and ultimate zone rating numbers since in his career. He plays the corner spots much better than the defensively demanding center field, and he played much better in the smaller Fenway Park outfield than the expansive outfield in San Francisco. Ross is only getting older, which means slower, but given his splits, the Diamondbacks won't be counting on Ross for defensive perfection in every game. PECOTA expects Ross to be worth about 5.7 WARP for the duration of his contract in Arizona, but given his new home field, we might see more offensive production. Overall, this signing seemed crazy on the outset, but looks more and more genius as I delve deeper.

My Grade: B+ (As I said before, the Diamondbacks seemed stupid in making this deal, but when analyzing it, Ross looks like a fit in Arizona. The team could make serious upgrades at other positions by trading an outfielder. Most think Jason Kubel is the perfect candidate, but don't count out the team moving Justin Upton in a blockbuster deal.)

Brewers sign LHP Mike Gonzalez to a 1-year $2.25 million contact:
In 2012, the Brewers had one of the worst bullpens in Baseball. Given the Brewers' situation, the main goal this offseason had to be an upgrade in their relief core. The team's offense remains almost untouched, and their starting pitching has some youngsters looking to continue early career success. Recently the team signed lefty Tom Gorzelanny to a multi-year contract, and now Doug Melvin has inked fellow lefty and former Nat Mike Gonzalez to a 1-year contract. The Brewers relievers ranked 10th worst in Major League Baseball in wOBA against lefties last season, and 10th worst in home runs given up against left-handed batters. That, combined with the numerous left-handed hitters with power in the NL Central, made the Brewers go looking for some affordable upgrades in that department. Think about it, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Mike Rizzo, Pedro Alvarez, and Shin-Soo Choo all play in the NL Central. With hitters like that, the Brewers have to have a counter punch out of their bullpen, especially given those hitters' particular ability to hit the ball out of the ball park. Gonzalez has been solid his entire career, throwing from an over-the-top angle, but with a very "arms and legs" delivery. That means that his delivery isn't compact or simple, but instead has lots of moving parts that distract the hitter, in an attempt to keep the ball hidden from the hitters' eyes. Gonzalez has a higher career K%, lower career BB%, and drastically higher ground ball percentage against lefties than righties, making him the perfect lefty specialist coming out of Milwaukee's bullpen. At only $2.25 million, the Brewers found an affordable lefty reliever. What more could they ask for?
My Grade: A (I can't find a downside to this deal. It doesn't make the Brewers contenders, but it's a minor move that will prove important in division play.)

Indians sign RHP Brett Myers to a 1-year $7 million contract:
So, Brett Myers is sort of a weird player. He has twice moved from the starting rotation to the bullpen, and now for a second time will move back to the rotation. Most pitchers would rather start than relieve, and Myers probably turned down some offers to pitch out of the bullpen in order to sign with the Indians. The Tribe looks to be filling rotation spots with cheaper veterans rather than promote prospects. This comes from a lack of MLB ready, or close to MLB ready pitching prospects. The team recently traded for Trevor Bauer, and he will compete for a rotation spot, but most likely, if he doesn't impress, Bauer will begin the season in triple A. Myers is a solid innings eater, a solid #5 or possibly #4 starter who isn't flashy, but gets you through 6 innings of work most of the time. When tagged as a starter, Myers has thrown at least 190 innings in every season but one. That consistency combined with a very sparse injury history, and a low price tag made Myers the perfect target for the Indians. He has a typical four-pitch arsenal of fastball, curveball, slider, changeup, with the curveball acting as his best strikeout pitch. Myers has shifted from the four-seam fastball to a sinker in recent years, causing his ability to induce ground balls to go up in the latter half of his career. Myers has learned some better control recently, lowering his BB% from 2 to 3 percentage points in the last 3 seasons. The Indians aren't looking for anything spectacular from Myers, but they also aren't paying him for more than a 1.0 WARP value. If the Indians fall out of the playoff picture by the trade deadline, look for Myers to be dealt as he isn't owed very much money, and isn't signed past 2013.
My Grade: B (This deal isn't special. If the Indians perform well, Myers looks like a steal at $7 million, but if they falter, he might garner a utility infield prospect.)

Rangers sign RHP Jason Frasor to a 1-year $1.5 million contract:
The Rangers lost two important cogs in their bullpen this offseason. Both Mike Adams, now a Phillie, and Koji Uehara, now in Boston, moved eastward away from balmy Arlington for colder pastures. In addition, Neftali Feliz looks to have made a permanent move to the starting rotation, and Alexei Ogando could find himself a starter in 2013 as well. The Rangers already added righty Joakim Soria earlier this offseason, but this deal is different. Soria pitches well against both righties and lefties, making him valuable enough to sign a multiyear contract for $8 million. Frasor has a lot of difficulties getting lefties out (4.06 career FIP), but fairs better than average against right-handed hitters (3.60 career FIP). At $1.5 million, Frasor could put up similar numbers to his 2012 campaign and still be worth this contract. Look for the Rangers to possibly add one more reliever to sure up their bullpen. Texas starters Colby Lewis and Neftali Feliz are both coming back from Tommy John surgeries, with Lewis expected back mid-season and Feliz towards September. These injuries force Alexei Ogando into the rotation and leave a hole in the bullpen, one that Frasor looks to fill.
My Grade: B+ (The Rangers needed a veteran reliever on the cheap, and they seem to have found their man.)

Dodgers sign LHP J.P. Howell to a $2.85 million contract:

J.P. Howell

The Rays discovered J.P. Howell, putting him in the bullpen where he thrived. Howell has performed well against lefties, but doesn't lose that much when facing righties. Many thought the Rays would resign Howell, but given his 2011-2012 value, the Rays might have been looking for a cheaper deal than almost $3 million. Only the Rays, and maybe the A's, have to worry about minute amounts of money like signing a reliever to a 1-year $3 million contract. The Dodgers have already added to their bullpen with the signing of Brandon League, albeit an overpay, but lost LHP Randy Choate to the Cardinals. Most likely, this lefty loss led L.A. to go after J.P. Howell. The Dodgers have deep pockets and a desire to win ASAP, so Howell probably wasn't attracting offers for more than $2 million before the Dodgers swooped in and outbid everyone. Howell is a solid pitcher who joins Scott Elbert as the two lefties in the Dodgers' pen. PECOTA and the Bill James projections see Howell outperforming his $2.85 million contract. He'll get a lot of work against lefties, and should prove his worth in pitcher friendly Chavez Ravine.
My Grade: B (If the Dodgers had to outbid other teams to get Howell, then this contract looks a little worse than I originally thought, but since most projections show Howell to outperform his current 2013 pecuniary value, I see this as a solid deal for both sides.)

Lance Berkman

Rangers sign 1B/DH Lance Berkman to a 1-year $10 million contract:
I previously wrote that that the perfect fit for Lance Berkman in 2013 would be in Tampa Bay. I sorely underestimated how much money teams would be willing to pay the soon-to-be 37 year old coming off of knee and calf injuries in 2012. Berkman has been very productive in his career, hitting for a career slash line of .296/.409/.544. Notice his incredibly high on base percentage and slugging percentage. Berkman is a duel threat at the plate, getting on base and hitting for power. The Big Puma has 360 career home runs and hasn't put up a wRC+ lower than 114 since his rookie season of 1999. Berkman was always a staple in Houston as part of the buzzing b's. He is a switch-hitter, who performs demonstratively better from the left side of the plate, but holds his own vs. left-handed pitching knocking southpaws around for a career .342 wOBA. Berkman has only two factors working against him, his age and recent injury history. PECOTA projects Berkman to be worth 3.0 WARP in 2013 and 2.2 WARP in 2014. The Rangers hope Berkman will fill the designated hitter role, smashing balls into the stands in right-field in hitter and home run friendly Texas. If Berkman produces the way PECOTA and Bill James (.279/.389/.485) expect he will, the $10 million price tag will look like a steal. If Berkman fails to hit 20 home runs and only plays in 70 games, it will look like a waste, but of only 1 to 2 million dollars.
My Grade: A- (The Rangers have a very right-handed lineup, so Berkman's power from the left side is a much needed upgrade. Berkman returns to Texas (he played most of his career for the Astros) instead of retiring, and should produce if healthy.)

Okay, you got me, none of these signings are monumental, but don't discount them as negligible. Howell, Frasor, and Gonzalez should all contribute to bullpens without needing to be the keystones, while Ross joins a well-stocked outfield in hitter friendly Arizona. The Rangers and Nolan Ryan apparently sought after Lance Berkman so much that Ryan flew to see Berkman in order to convince him to play in 2013, and do so for the Texas Rangers. Brett Myers is the true mundane signing of the bunch, but even he could prove interesting if traded mid-season. Look for January and February to be busy months on the MLB hot stove with Michael Bourn, Kyle Lohse, Adam LaRoche, and Shaun Marcum still unsigned and numerous trade-possible players still out there. Oh, and remember, only 37 more days until pitchers & catchers report.