Two Outfield Trade Candidates: Josh Willingham

Yesterday I wrote about a good candidate to be traded this offseason in Cleveland Indians outfielder Shin-Soo Choo. Today I am going to perform a similar analysis on another outfielder who could be traded, the Minnesota Twins' Josh Willingham. Willingham, or "The Hammer", is a 33 year old left fielder who signed a 3-year $21 million contract with the Twins last offseason. He has two years remaining on his current deal, which is set to pay him $7 million per season. Let's find out a little more about Josh.

Willingham began his career with the Florida Marlins, but in 2008 the Marlins traded him to the Washington Nationals. On average, since 2009, Willingham has proven to be a worth more than 2.5 fWAR.

	fWAR	rWAR	WARP
2009	2.5	2.3	3.2
2010	3	2.6	2.1
2011	2	2.1	2.9
2012	3.9	2.9	4.5

 As you can see, while Willingham does not provide all-star caliber numbers every season, he is consistently solid. Other outfielders with similar fWAR numbers since 2009 include Andre Ethier, Cory Hart, and Adam Jones. The next logical question is, how does Willingham provide value? What would a team, willing to trade for him, be getting?

Josh Willingham has never, and will most likely never be a great defender. He isn't very fast, and won't steal many bases. Most of what he provides a team comes from his offensive abilities. Take a look at these numbers. 

	Tav	wOBA	wRC+
2009	0.296	0.375	129
2010	0.299	0.375	132
2011	0.305	0.350	122
2012	0.312	0.380	143

Tav stands for true average, which is Baseball Prospectus' way of improving the statistic of batting average. It is scaled similarly, but incorporates other aspects like reaching base by error when calculating the average. It is a linearly weighted average, and adjustments are made in the calculation to factor for parks and league. Willingham has been consistently great at producing runs. He has high Tav, wOBA, and wRC+ showing a well-rounded approach at plate. As you can see below, Willingham produces both by getting on base as well as hitting for power. 

	HR	R	OBP	ISO
2009	24	70	0.367	0.237
2010	16	54	0.389	0.192
2011	29	69	0.332	0.232
2012	35	85	0.366	0.264

In the last 4 seasons Willingham ranks 12th amongst all outfielders in wOBA, a metric that does a great job portraying a players' overall offensive contribution. His 104 home runs since 2009 rank him 9th amongst all outfielders, just behind 2012 free agents Josh Hamilton (110) and Nick Swisher (105). In addition, he ranks 12th amongst outfielders in BB%, while striking out at about an average rate. From a hitting perspective, Willingham, despite his age, is a jewel. Due to his versatility to both get on base and hit for power, Willingham can bat in any spot in the order from 2nd all the way to 6th and be productive from each spot. 

Defensively, Willingham plays a low-key position. Amongst the three outfield positions, center field and right field are deemed as more defensively difficult positions to play. Players who are great defenders are put in center field, those with slightly less defensive ability but still good arms are put in right field, while outfielders who hit far better than they field usually end up in left field. That isn't to say that left field is similar to the designated hitter, but it isn't as important to be a superb defender when playing left field. Here are some of Willingham's defensive numbers since 2009.

	UZR	DRS	FRAA
2009	-5.7	-4	1.9
2010	-1.9	1	-9.2
2011	-5.4	0	-3
2012	-7.9	-13	4.8

 From a range perspective, Willingham fails due to his lack of speed. He can't cover nearly as much ground as better fast fielders so bloop hits fall in front of him, gappers get by him, and he isn't jumping over the wall to take away home runs. On the other hand, Willingham has a decent arm, and Baseball Prosepctus' defensive metric FRAA has twice in the last 4 seasons shown him to be above average at making the plays necessary to make in left field. In addition, it is important to note that in 2011 and 2012 Willingham played in big ballparks in Oakland and Minnesota, which can be tougher for outfielders who that slower. This may have contributed to his consistently negative UZR numbers. 

Since 2009 Willingham has earned just over $20 million dollars, but according to Fangraphs, he has been worth four times that amount. Outperforming one's contract by 4x is incredible, it shows that Willingham has continued to exceed expectations, a sign of a player who continues to work on his craft, a quality that cannot be underemphasized. If Willingham puts up between 4-6 fWAR over the next two seasons, he would be worth between $18-$27 million but, he is only set to be paid $14 million over the next two seasons combined. In addition, if Willingham's production drops, any team that trades for him will be rid of him by 2015, a reasonable bargain.  

So, now that we know what he brings to a team, and that he has been quite undervalued throughout his career, we have to ask ourselves one important question. Why would the Twins want to trade Josh Willingham? Well, the Twins haven't been a very good team the last two seasons, and they signed Willingham to a deal last winter partially hoping that if they continued to lose more than they won, he would be a perfect trade candidate. The Twins need to rebuild with young players, and they especially need pitching. So, any team willing to give up a B level pitching prospect or two could swipe Willingham and his affordable contract without an issue. 

Teams that should seriously consider trading for Willingham include the Phillies, Braves, Rays, Orioles, and Reds. 

As I articulated yesterday, the Phillies need outfield help, whether it be at a corner outfield spot or in center field. Domonic Brown will most likely play in one spot, but the other two are uncertain. Trading for Willingham would give the Phillies a power hitting right-handed bat that gets on base who can protect slugger Ryan Howard. In addition, he would break up the lefties in the middle of the Phillies order so if opposing teams bring in lefty specialists to get them, they would have to deal with Willingham and his .384 wOBA off of lefties last season. They don't have much in the farm system, but if Ruben Amaro wants to win next season, Willingham would be a great low cost, high reward player. He is a better version of Pat Burrell at a much lower cost.

Chipper Jones has retired. It opens up a hole at third base for the Atlanta Braves. If the Braves want to, they can fill this hole by moving 2012 left fielder Martin Prado to third base. He has played there before, and, especially in the current market, it is easier to find a replacement in the outfield than at third. The Braves, have three young pitchers that the Twins would want including Julio Tehran, Randall Delgado, and Mike Minor. My guess is that Minor is off limits, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Braves would be willing to part with Delgado or Tehran in order to claim Willingham. The Braves need to replace Jones' offensive production, especially given Brian McCann's recent offensive woes, and Willingham could do just that.

The Tampa Bay Rays are the perfect fit for Josh Willingham. The Rays have phenomenal pitching, and they have a bunch of it. The team recently brought back James Shields, and continues to produce great young pitchers like Alex Cobb and Matt Moore. Most importantly, the Rays need to upgrade their meek offense, but as usual, do so at a low cost. A trade that sent Rays righty Jeremy Hellickson to the Twins for Josh Willingham might be exactly what both teams need. Hellickson is a pitch-to-contact righty who is young, has MLB experience, and even won the AL rookie of the year award in 2011. He would be perfect pitching in Target Field, and the would immediately upgrade the Twins rotation at very little cost. The Rays have a need for Willingham and the necessary trade pieces to make this deal happen. Willingham's $7 million/season contract is a bit on the high side for a team like the Rays, but if they simultaneously dealt lefty David Price, it could lead to some serious payroll relief.

The argument for the Orioles is simple. The team needs better offensive production. They cannot count on Chris Davis to be as hot from the plate as he was towards the end of last season, and Willingham would provide a steady presence in their lineup. An outfield consisting of Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Josh Willingham would give the O's stability in the middle of their order, and another solid veteran presence on a young team. Willingham has played in the area before, and might like a change of scenery from cold Minnesota to warmer Baltimore. 

The Reds two best hitters are both lefties. Joey Votto and Jay Bruce provide a lot of umph in the middle of the Reds order, but if the Reds were to add Willingham to the bunch, it would allow Dusty Baker to split the two lefties up in the lineup. Ryan Ludwick was a revelation for the team last season, but he has been very up and down the last few seasons, and cannot be counted on to have a repeat performance. Home run friendly Great American Ballpark would be an upgrade for Willingham. He was able to 35 home runs in the much bigger Target Field, so his production should go up playing more in the warmer air and smaller confines of Great American Ballpark. The issue here is if the Reds have what it takes to land Willingham. They recently traded prospects to get Mat Latos, Jonathan Broxton, etc... so while Willingham makes sense in Cincinnati, I'm not sure they can pony up enough to acquire him.

In the end, I think Willingham ends up in Tampa Bay. The Rays almost make too much sense here. They need a low cost power bat, have exactly what the Twins are looking for in return, and due to cost concerns have little choice to upgrade vio free agency. This deal would make sense for both teams. The Rays have so much good young pitching, I can see three possible deals unfolding. 

Deal 1) Twins send Josh Willingham and $2 million to the Rays in exchange for RHP Jeremy Hellickson

Deal 2) Twins send Josh Willingham to the Rays in exchange for RHP Wade Davis

Deal 3) Twins send Josh Willingham to the Rays in exchange for RHP Chris Archer

If the Twins are serious about rebuilding, they need to trade players like Josh Willingham, and do so before he becomes less attractive. Teams like the Rays, Phillies, and Braves need someone like him, so watch out for an upcoming deal. Most importantly, remember that in this offseason where more than 100 free agents will sign new contracts, sometimes it's better to upgrade via trade. 

Two Outfield Trade Candidates: Shin-Soo Choo

Right now, Major League front offices are clamoring to compile data and information about free agents that they think would be good fits for their team heading into the 2013 season. While free agency is a great way to upgrade a club, another option exists, the trade. Already this offseason we have seen a trade between the Diamondbacks, A's, and Miami Marlins that sent Chris Young to the A's and Heath Bell to Arizona. Trades don't involve long term commitments and writing huge checks like a free agent signing, instead team's can find ways to upgrade their club, whether by addition or subtraction.

Two players whose names have been mentioned as possible trade candidates this offseason are Shin-Soo Choo of the Indians and Josh Willingham of the Twins. As far as positions go, the deepest market this offseason is in the outfield, but teams, especially in small markets, often cannot afford the price tags on free agents, but instead have assets they can trade in order to upgrade. Corner outfielders like Choo and Willingham could provide serious help to teams in need. Let's explore what these players bring to the table, and where they could end up. In this article, I will talk solely about Shin-Soo Choo, and in tomorrow's I will delve into the market for Josh Willingham.

Shin-Soo Choo: The first thing to notice about Choo's career thus far is that when he's healthy, he contributes at above replacement level, but he has been hit by the injury bug a few times. In 5 seasons with the Indians, Choo has averaged ~ 3.7 fWAR per season. That is on par with outfielders like B.J. Upton, Torii Hunter, and Ichiro Suzuki. So, we are talking about a productive player, but where does he derive this production?

Choo has put up very good wOBA and wRC+ numbers the last few seasons, proving that he is a good all around hitter.

	wOBA	wRC+
2008	0.404	150
2009	0.384	134
2010	0.386	145
2011	0.325	105
2012	0.359	131

 His best asset at the plate is his ability to get on base. Over the last 5 seasons, Choo's on base percentage has ranged from as low as .344 to as high as .401. Even in his worst season, Choo still got on base at the same rate as Josh Hamilton, Brett Gardner, and Chipper Jones, which is pretty impressive. Choo's impressive walk rate of ~ 11% per season is good enough to consistently place him in the top 30 hitters in MLB. He has batted in numerous spots in the Indians order over the years, making him quite useful to any manager. Choo is a selective hitter, something that usually does not diminish with age, a good sign for any team looking to deal for him. 

In addition to his propensity to reach base safely, Choo has shown sign of a legitimate power stroke. He has hit at least 20 home runs twice in his career, and his average ISO over the last 5 seasons has been ~ .181, a good mark for a hitter that is careful in selecting which pitch to hit. In addition, Choo has consistently had a better-than-average HR/FB%, meaning that when he hits the ball in the air, he's usually found a pitch he can drive, which fits his profile as a selective hitter. While power tends to drop with age, Choo's ability to slug the ball is a secondary trait, one that any team with the hope to land him shouldn't and most likely wouldn't count on. 

Defensively, Choo has been a bit all over the place. In his last 5 seasons he has played predominantly in right field, but has played a bit in center field as well. Here are some defensive numbers to look at:

	UZR	DRS	FRAA
2008	-2	-1	-5.7
2009	-1	2	4.2
2010	6.1	5	-4.2
2011	2	3	3.6
2012	-17	-12	0.2

 Choo has proven that he can play the outfield fairly well. In 3/5 seasons show, Choo put up positive numbers in both DRS and FRAA, while doing so only twice according to UZR. Last season, neither UZR nor DRS liked Choo's performance, but Baseball Prospectus' fielding runs above average put him as an outfielder that makes about all the plays an average outfielder does. These numbers prove that while his best defensive days may be behind him, if Choo can stay healthy, he will provide adequate enough defensive play for any team willing to acquire him. 

A team willing to trade for Choo would be taking on his current contract. Choo is in his 2nd year of arbitration eligability, which means he wouldn't become a free agent until after the 2013 season. He was awarded $4.9 million in arbitration last season, and that figure should rise somewhat this offseason, but most likely no team will end up paying him more than $10 million next season. 2011 was a down season production-wise for Choo, and according to Fangraphs he was worth just over $11 million, so a year of arbitration eligibility would be a steal for Choo. Given his age, he will turn 31 in July, 2013, a team trading for Choo would want to try to sign him to an extension. If I were a front office, having recently traded for Choo, I would offer him a contract extension in the neighborhood of 3 years and $35 million. That implies he will put up on average about 2.5 fWAR per season, which at his age, and given his past production shouldn't be a problem. 

Teams that should seriously consider trading for Choo include the Pirates, Phillies, Blue Jays, and Orioles. The Indians would most likely want a solid pitching prospect in return for the outfielder. Their asking price can't be too high as Choo is set to reach free agency in 2014 and the current market is flush for outfielders. A trade would give the Indians some more money to throw at possible free agent targets of their own while gaining some more depth in their farm system, which is never a bad thing for a mid-market team.

The Phillies traded Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino before the trade deadline this past season to make room for youngsters Domonic Brown and John Mayberry Jr. while simultaneously replenishing some of their recently depleted farm system. While the team is actively looking to sign a center fielder this offseason, trading for a hitter like Choo might be more cost effective, and would provide more hitters in their lineup to get on base for guys like Howard and Utley to knock in. 

The Pirates have a stud center fielder in Andrew McCutchen, but have had some issues with their corner outfield spots. Youngster Starling Marte looked good, and he, Jose Tabata, and Garrett Jones will vy for the two corner outfield spots heading into 2013. On the other hand, if Neal Huntington, who has said the team does not intend to spend a lot this offseason, traded for Choo, the Buccos could start Choo and Marte alongside McCutchen, making a fairly formidable outfield trio. Their team OBP last season was .304. Choo would come in and have the 2nd highest OBP on the team, and that is using his worst OBP mark from the last 5 years. 

The Blue Jays don't need Shin-Soo Choo, but he could be a good acquisition anyway. If the team were to add Choo, their outfield would sport Colby Rasmus, Jose Bautista, and Choo. He would instantly become in the top 3 on the team in OBP, and it would allow the team to move Bautista to left field, giving them at least an average glove in all three outfield spots. The team has many prospects, but has other areas of improvement to focus on prior to trading for an outfielder, so while this trade would be beneficial, and the team could easily deal a prospect, this trade wouldn't be high on Alex Anthopoulos' offseason priority list.

The Baltimore Orioles represent a dark horse candidate. The team his Nick Markakis in right field, but adding Choo and moving him to left field would give the Orioles a very solid outfield for 2013. This is a team that made the playoffs despite poor overall hitting. Choo would be a great upgrade in the lineup, as he and Markakis had similar lines of production last season, except that Choo scored more runs and stole 20 more bases than Markakis. An outfield of Choo, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis, even for just one season, might be worth giving up someone like Brian Matusz. Pitching wasn't the Orioles issue last season, it was hitting, and adding Choo would definitely bolster their offensive output. 

So, what will happen? I don't know. There is a solid chance that the Indians attempt to sign Choo to a contract extension this offseason, locking him down through 2014 when he is eligible for free agency. On the other hand, if they cannot agree on an extension, a trade is very likely. The Pirates and Orioles make the most sense, but the overall winner of the possible Choo sweepstakes will be determined by the Indians' asking price. Shin-Soo Choo is a solid player whose name has gone under the radar because of the good outfield market this offseason. No free agent outfielder has signed a deal yet, but we have seen the Diamondbacks shed extra outfield weight through a trade, making the possible trade of Choo a little more likely. If the Indians fail to extend their right fielder, look for a possible deal to happen during the Winter Meetings in Nashville in the first week of December.