Let's Talk Pitching

This past Sunday Americans celebrated the end of the NFL season by eating lots of fried food, cheering for the players as much as the commercials, and then passing out praying their boss is a Giants fan.  Now that the Super Bowl is over, one fact remains, only 11 days until pitchers and catchers report to spring training.

In light of the imminent arrival of pitchers and catchers to Florida and Arizona I decided to write about pitching, and more specifically, starting pitching.  As I alluded to in my previous post, every starter in a rotation has the ability to contribute as much as his fellow starters.  The designation of #1 starter or #5 starter usually tells us something about a pitcher's value, but both the #1 and #5 starter in every rotation have equal opportunities to contribute.

This off-season a number of high quality starting pitchers changed teams including C.J Wilson (Rangers to Angels), Mark Buehrle (White Sox to Marlins), Edwin Jackson (Cardinals to Nationals), Gio Gonzalez (A's to Nats), and Matt Latos (Padres to Reds).  Recently the trend in Major League Baseball has been to compile an elite set of starters in order to achieve success.  Examples include the Phillies, Giants, Braves, and Rays.  No matter how a general manager accomplishes this goal, putting together a great rotation instead of a star studded lineup has become the norm. 

No division compiled more starting pitching in the last 3 years than the National League East.  Whether by trade, free agency, or through the draft, the NL East is chock-full or great starters.

Philadelphia Phillies:  When you think of great starting pitching there is almost no better place to start then the reigning NL East champion Phillies.  With All-starts Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels topping the Phillies rotation, Philadelphia is poised to claim a 6th consecutive NL east title.  With the emergence of Vance Worley as a reliable strike-throwing starter (61.5% F-strike%) the Phillies decided to allow the now older and more injury prone Roy Oswalt to test the free agent waters.  This makes their rotation younger and less expensive, especially since both Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels will be making considerably more money in 2012 than in 2011.  Rounding out the rotation is Joe Blanton.  Blanton spent almost the entire 2011 season on the disabled list, but was integral to the Phillies' World Series runs in 2008 and 2009 and, like Worley, should provide the Phillies with 5 strike-throwing starting pitchers.  Last season the Phillies 5 starting pitchers compiled a WAR of 28.8 utilizing Fangraphs' version of WAR.  In comparison the 2011 Marlins starters compiled a measly 15.5 total WAR.  The Phillies should be pleased with their rotation going into the 2012 season as it, along with the Giants rotation, is one of the top 2 rotations in the NL.

Atlanta Braves:  To say the Braves have depth in their starting rotation is a massive understatement.   7 different starters could easily see themselves in the Braves 2012 rotation.  Most teams would turn to the witchcraft to compile a group of arms like the Braves'.  While the Braves' depth seems almost like overkill, it may prove vital to their success.  Last season only veteran sinkerballer Tim Hudson reached the 200 inning plateau with no other Braves pitcher currently in the 2012 rotation throwing for more than 152.0 innings.  Beginning the season 4/5 of the Braves rotation was born in the 1980's with two other possibilities (Randall Delgado and Julio Tehran) under the age of 23.  The Braves rotation, unlike the Phillies, is made up of a lot of "ifs".  For example, if Tommy Hanson continues his success as a big strikeout pitcher and stays healthy... and if Jair Jurrjens stays healthy and performs as stellar post-All-star break as he does before mid-season... and if Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy pitch at a more veteran level than their ages... and finally if Randall Delgado and Julio Tehran live up to their highly touted statuses... the Braves could have the best rotation in baseball.  Is this likley?  Probably not, but the Braves rotation has the potential to be incredible, which is better than most.

If the Nats are to win Strasburg is the key

Washington Nationals: This is quite possibly the most intriguing starting rotation in all of Major League Baseball.  No discussion of the Nationals starters can begin with anyone but Stephen Strasburg.  As someone who has seen Strasburg pitch in person, I can tell you that he passes the eye test for ace starter.  Strasburg demonstrates poise and presence on the mound and has 3 plus pitches.  The only knock on the Nats phenom is that his sample size isn't large enough to make any bold statements as to his greatness.  His lack of experience coupled with recent Tommy John surgery usually don't bode well for young starters, but Strasburg's talent is unmatched.  In an attempt to improve their recently weak starting rotation the Nats flexed their wallets by trading and then extending Gio Gonzalez and then signing Edwin Jackson.  Gonzalez was one of the best lefties in the AL last season, but played in pitcher friendly Oakland.  Gonzalez compiles a lot of strikeouts, but his forte is getting into and then out of trouble.  The southpaw had a WHIP of 1.32 last season but a LOB% of 77.1%.  With a projected BABIP of .302 and a friendlier hitter's ballpark Gonzalez could get burned if he tires after the first time through the lineup, but overall he's a solid addition to the Nats rotation.  The best signing of the off-season may turn out to be the one-year deal the Nats gave to Edwin Jackson.  Over the last 4 seasons Jackson's FIP and WHIP have trended in a positive direction which bodes well for him in 2012.  Rounding out the rotation is John Lannan, but with the Nats declaring their desire to move him he may be pitching elsewhere very soon.  Chin-Ming Wang and Ross Detwiler will compete for the fifth starting spot.  Neither pitcher will significantly improve the rotation, but if Wang can compile a ground ball percentage of at least 50% he could make a significant impact.

Anibal Sanchez

Florida Marlins: Like the Nats, the Marlins rotation received a makeover.  New faces include Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano.  Adding Zambrano and Buehrle to Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, and Ricky Nolasco creates a fairly formidable rotation.  They key for Johnson is to stay away from the disabled list.  When he is healthy he is arguably the best pitcher in Major League Baseball, but for this team to do well he must stay healthy.  Sanchez's recent history shows a trend towards ace status, but even if he doesn't achieve #1 type numbers his presence will be felt.  Nolasco has been solid, with his numbers showing a shift from a strikeout pitcher to one who gets outs on the ground.  If Nolasco's numbers remain similar to last season he will have done his job.  Although the Marlins probably overpaid to get Buehrle, he is a lefty with impeccable control, which is invaluable.  Zambrano is obviously the wild card of the bunch, but I expect an improvement from him because if anyone can control crazy Carlos it's the wildest manager out there, Ozzie Guillen.

Maybe Mr. Met should pitch

New York Mets:  The Mets rotation sports Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, and R.A. Dickey.  If Santana can somehow become the pitcher he was before his arm issues, the Mets can basically count on one win every five games, but the odds of him returning to his Cy Young self are slim.  Pelfrey may be one of the most frustrating pitchers in the league in that every time he looks like he has crossed the threshold into greatness he regresses back to mediocrity.  Niese, Gee, and Dickey are all #4 caliber starters, but with the Mets projected to remain cellar dwellers in the east their contributions lack importance.

Overall, the NL East could be one of if not the best pitching divisions in Major League Baseball, but nothing is certain until they play the games.  Ranking these rotations isn't easy but I'm up for a challenge.  #1 Phillies #2 Nationals #3 Braves #4 Marlins #5 Mets.  The Marlins have the most potential to move up this list while the Braves and Nats have the most potential to move down.  One fact is certain, the battle for NL East supremacy will be a fight to the finish.

1st to 5th, They All Matter

Paul Maholm, Jake Westbrook, Chris Narveson, and Barry Zito.  What do all of these seemingly random names have in common?  They would all be considered the 5th starters for their respective teams heading into in the 2012 season.  This begs another question: Why should we care about these back end of the rotation starters.  These are players relegated to mediocrity, seldom spoken of, and often forgotten.  Here lies the rub (no I'm not a Shakespeare major, but who wouldn't use the word rub).  Each of these pitchers will start just as many games as their number one counterparts.  In other words, Barry Zito, pending injury, will start in about 33 games, the same number as ace Tim Lincecum. 

All general managers need 5 starting pitchers and although the better ones come first, each starter has the same potential to influence their team.  Since 3 of the names mentioned above call the NL Central home let's focus on the middle division of the senior circuit.  As a refresher, the teams, for now, include the World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals, the 2012 NL Central winning Milwaukee Brewers, the Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Houston Astros. 

2012 Team	Player	Age	Season	WAR	FIP	K/9	HR/FB	GB%
Cubs	Maholm	29	7th	2.1	3.78	5.38	7.50%	49.90%
Cardinals	Westbrook	34	11th	1.1	4.25	5.11	11.40%	59.30%
Astros	Happ	29	4th	0.3	4.69	7.71	10.20%	33.00%
Brewers	Narveson	30	4th	1.5	4.06	7.01	9.60%	42.30%
Pirates	Bedard	32	8th	2.4	3.64	8.7	10.20%	42.00%
Reds	Mike Leake	24	2nd	1.5	4.22	6.33	13.90%	47.70%

The above chart shows a few important statistics and other information concerning these players' 2011 seasons.  In looking for patterns we can rule out experience because although all are veterans, some much more than others.  Their ages all seem similar with Jake Westbrook the outlier at age 34.  Other than age, these pitchers all display an interesting characteristic of 5th starters (at least in the NL central).  That is that none of these players would be considered strikeout pitchers.  In fact, 2 out of 5 are ground ball pitchers, namely Westrbook and Maholm.  Eric Bedard's 8.7 K/9 shows a pitcher who still gets a good mix of swings-and-misses as well as called strikes.  Interestingly, but not necessarily connected, Bedard also garnered the highest WAR last season. 

So, it seems as though in this division the Cubs, who are rebuilding, and the Pirates, who look to improve upon 2011 but most likely won't win the division in 2012, have the best 5th starters.  Either the Cardinals or Reds will win the 2012 NL Central, and neither of their 5th starters could muster more than 1.5 WAR last season.  In addition, both Jake Westbrook and Mike Leake have FIP numbers over 4, which is above the league average.  FIP, or fielding independent pitching, is a good indicator of future performance but not for evaluating a single season.  One explanation for this disparity could be that both the Reds and Cardinals rely more heavily on their top-tier starters and care less about the back end of the rotation.  Another explanation could be that these teams rely more on their offenses, thus they place less importance on pitching due to their offenses' ability to neutralize a mediocre pitcher.  Both the Cardinals and Reds have dynamic offenses, something none of the other NL Central teams have, thus I would say this is the reason. 

The Cubs recently signed Maholm to a 1-year contract worth about $4.25 million.  This is not a considerably high price to pay for a ground ball pitcher who provides more than 2.0 WAR from the left side.  Why then did a contending team not pick up the under-the-radar Maholm?  Your guess is as good as mine, but since this is my blog my guess is all that matters.  My guess is that the Reds are banking on he young Leake to improve this season, and Leake, still under his rookie contract, comes at a much lower price than Maholm.  The Cardinals, who saved lots of money not signing Albert Pujols, probably should have considered Maholm.  I understand that Jake Westbrook is under contract, but Maholm is the better pitcher.  If it only costs them $4.25 million to sign Maholm for one year then as a theoretical Cardinals GM I would eat the cost of Westbrook's salary for this season, stick him in the bullpen, and sign Maholm.  He will most likely make between 25 and 32 starts this season and with the division race looking slim, even a small advantage like this could push the scale towards St. Louis. 

Finally, let's consider another idea.  Who is the best 5th starter in Major League Baseball?  I like using WAR because it is a statistic that denotes value.  According to WAR statistics, Rangers RHP Alexei Ogando is the best 5th starter in MLB.  His 3.6 WAR in 2011 is equivalent to Jaime Garcia, Gavin Floyd, and Derek Holland.  Even Phillies rookie Vance Worley(2.5) captured a higher WAR than Maholm.  The problem lies that both Ogando and Worley could be considered 4th or 5th starters on their respective teams, but in fairness because I have been using MLB.com's depth charts as references I must stay consistent. 

Often times fifth starters are young pitchers getting their first chance in the big leagues, and others are fading old timers, once good, but now banished to the great hall of the pedestrian.  In the end I think there should be a quest, especially amongst contending teams, to find the best fifth starter.  All 5 guys in every rotation start almost the same number of games, and each game means just as much as the next.  Thus, why not try to get the best man for each slot.  Paul Maholm may have signed with the Cubs, and kudos to GM Jed Hoyer for stealing him from the many contenders who should have signed him.  As usual, Hoyer and the rest of the Theo Epstein bunch remain ahead of the curve, but the main message is that each player on a team matters, so choose wisely and always attempt to make the right choice.

The Case For Kerry Wood

The Phillies have been rumored to be interested in RHP Kerry Wood.  Here is my take on the situation originally posted to www.Phillysportsdaily.com

CaseforWood

Phillies Bullpen Future

Phillies Bullpen Future

Going, Going, Gone Forever

             On December 4^th, the Miami Marlins once against stoked the fire of the Major League Baseball hot stove.  The Marlins, who recently signed closer Heath Bell, reportedly inked former Mets shortstop Jose Reyes to a 6-year $106 million contract. Matt Kemp recently signed a $160 million contract with the Dodgers, making Reyes’ recent signing the second 9-figure deal made this off-season.

             The Phillies should have signed Jose Reyes.  The hole between second base and shortstop remains void with Jimmy Rollins currently a free agent.  Most, if not many, believe Rollins’ eventual destination will be a return to Philadelphia.  Despite Rollins’ hometown hero status, the Phillies made a mistake making him their top priority in filling their need at shortstop.

            Reyes’ contract will pay him $17.67 million per season, and if you need convincing as to the frugality of the deal see Dave Cameron’s article on Fangraphs.com [insert hyperlink here].  Reyes commanded a great deal of money on the open market, becoming the second highest paid free agent shortstop ever.  In 2011 Reyes compiled a 6.1 WAR, his third posting of at least a WAR of 6.0 in his 9 MLB seasons.  In this, his contract year, Reyes displayed his true brilliance.  He hit .337 with a .384 on base percentage and scored 107 runs.  His batting average on balls in play was a career high .353 and his strikeout percentage was a career low 7.0%.  For a leadoff hitter, these numbers show greatness.  Reyes’ game is predicated on his speed on the base paths.  He annoys pitchers, forcing them to take their attention off of the hitter and put some effort into preventing Reyes from running.  Reyes proved a pest running the bases, stealing 39 of 46 bases he attempted, good enough for an 85% success rate, which shows patience and intelligence when stealing. 

            Despite his outstanding statistics, Jose Reyes’ name always sparks a conversation about his health.  Reyes has never played in 162 games, and has play in 160 games only twice in his career.  This past season Reyes experienced similar injury problems that forced him to visit the disabled list twice.  Reyes played only 126 games in 2011, a fact that worried many teams when they considered signing him, but given his statistic in 2011 also showed his potential brilliance at age 28. 

             Jimmy Rollins has been the Phillies everyday shortstop since 2001.  He won the national league MVP in 2007 and helped the Phillies win the 2008 World Series.  During his time in Philadelphia Rollins has become an icon, team leader, and fan favorite despite a decline in his production.  Rollins showed some minor improvements in batting average (.268), BABIP (.275), and OBP (.338) but still pales in comparison to Reyes’ numbers.  One consistent criticism of Rollins has been his inability to walk and his tendency to swing early in the count and constantly hit pop-ups instead of line drives.  Rollins’ walk percentage was 9.2% in 2011, the third best of his career, but even still, his on base percentage ranked 9^th in MLB for shortstops.  Rollins continued his penchant for popping the ball up, posting an abysmal .95 ground ball to fly ball ratio.  In addition, Rollins compiled a 41% fly ball percentage on batted balls and only a 7.7% home run to fly ball percentage.  Thus, Rollins, as the Phillies leadoff hitter, continued to hit the ball in the air too often without showing the power he provided earlier in his career. 

            Rollins, at age 32, is looking for a 4-5 year contract.  Such a deal would constitute another addition to bad contracts given out to aging players by Ruben Amaro.  Rollins’ numbers show a decline in every area, even defensively, which is seen as his greatest on-the-field attribute.  Reyes received a 6-year contract from the Marlins, which would end when he is 34 years old, while a 4 year contract for J-Roll would leave him a Phillie until age 36.  Over that span of time, barring any major injuries, Reyes will most likely be a better player.  Thus far this off-season the Phillies biggest splash was the signing of Jonathan Papelbon to a 5-year $50 million contract.  Instead of giving a relief pitcher $10 million per season, the Phillies should have used that money to sign Jose Reyes.  Despite the growing market for closers, set up men, and lefty specialists, these players till only play in about 60 games per year while even an injured Jose Reyes contributes in at least 100 games per season.  Imagine for a second a lineup that included Jose Reyes.  It might look like this:

1	Jose Reyes	SS
2	Shane Victorino	CF
3	Chase Utley	2B
4	Hunter Pence	RF
5	Jim Thome	1B
6	John Mayberry Jr.	LF
7	Placido Polanco	3B
8	Carlos Ruiz	C
9	Roy Halladay	SP

With Reyes at the top of lineup, the Phillies, even without Ryan Howard, do not look offensively challenged.  With Rollins leading off, that story changes greatly.  The combined OBP of Reyes, Victorino, and Utley from 2011 was 1.083 while the combined OBP of Rollins, Victorino, and Utley in 2011 was 1.037.  With outstanding starting pitching the Phillies do not need to score huge numbers of runs, but with Reyes they might have scored enough to push them back into the World Series, while with Rollins they may continue to decline.  Finally, financially, the Phillies already possess the largest NL payroll, so I ask, if the Phillies are willing to spend money, why not do so efficiently by signing players like Jose Reyes and David Dejesus, and not Jonathan Papelbon and Jimmy Rollins. 

            So, should the Phillies have signed Jose Reyes?  I think Reyes provides a great upgrade to Rollins, and had they not wasted money on Papelbon, signing Reyes was financially feasible.  Rollins will most likely be the opening day shortstop for the Phillies in 2012, but that decision, coupled with Reyes’ new contract in Miami, may prove to be a missed opportunity.