Old School vs. New School

The latest raging debate in baseball concerns who should win the American League Most Valuable Player Award. The choices, Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout. One side claims that Miguel Cabrera must win the award. He won the Triple Crown for heaven's sake. No, I'm not talking about the horse racing Triple Crown, this is a baseball blog after all, and Miguel Cabrera isn't the name of the most recent jockey or thoroughbred coming out of the gates at Pimlico. This is a feat unaccomplished by thousands of Major Leagues over the last 45 years. Home runs, runs batted in, and batting average make up the three categories in which a player must at least tied for the lead in his respective league in order to claim the glorious Triple Crown. On the other side, we have Mike Trout. 20 years young, and already a phenom. Trout put together a Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle-type season. He posted a wRC+ of 175, wOBA of .422, a DRS of 21, and the highest WAR in the Major Leagues at 10.4. Wait, what in God's name are those hokey looking new-age statistics? WAR? Does that mean Trout is the best chance we have at beating ze Germans on the Western Front? I don't trust that garbage.

This is the debate:

For the last 30 or so years, Baseball has been evolving. Yes, we added the designated hitter, interleague play, and supposedly got rid of steroids, but I'm talking about a revolution. Bring out the guillotine and start chopping off heads. No, not a revolt, but a radical transformation. We didn't bring muskets and a declaration of war (I know the irony is killing me too), instead we brought our slide rules, statistical regression textbooks, and maybe a computer or two. Starting with the father, Bill James, and moving on to greats like John Dewan, Earnshaw Cook, and Tom Tango, the way we look at the game of baseball has changed. Change can often sound like a bad thing, especially for a game characterized as the National Pastime. But stories like the The Natural and tales of the great boys of summer, brought Baseball only so far. The key to moving baseball out of its archaic shell was science. Yes, pesky old science, that class in high school you so royally skipped except when you were set to dissect a frog or a guinea pig. Science crept into Baseball, just as it does with most aspects of life that have yet to be analyzed in depth.

This isn't a new concept. Originally, we as humans thought that the world was flat. In fact, some of the most brilliant minds of the ancient generations, not only assumed, but also proved the world flat. Eventually, around the 6th century BCE, with the help of the great Pythagorus, the ancient Greeks agreed that the world was not flat, but spherical. On the other hand, it took the Chinese until the 17th Century to change their minds, and even some during the time of the great explorer Christopher Columbus thought the earth was shaped like a discus.

Next came the idea of heliocentrism, a concept originally developed by the great Polish scientist and Catholic cleric, Nicolaus Copernicus. Copernican theory stated that the sun stood still while the other bodies in the universe, the earth included revolved around it. This idea was almost the complete opposite from religious doctrine. From the Bible, we can make out that the Earth was the center of the universe, but according to the Pole Copernicus, the sun was at the universe's center. Galileo, the great Italian scientist reproved all of Copernicus' theories concerning heliocentrism, and using his influence in the Catholic Church attempted to sway the Pope to allow him to publish this knowledge as fact. The Pope even asked Galileo to give arguments for both sides in his writings, but Galileo would not allow his name to be associated with false information. In the end, Galileo was sentenced to house arrest for the rest of his life. Not a great endorsement for the Church. 

Finally, science budged its way into the classical idea that God created the world in 7 days. Along came a guy named Charles Darwin who proved, scientifically, that humans evolved through natural selection, which had been going on for millions of years. Even to this day, many religious earthly citizens believe that the world was created in 7 days. Some believe a middle ground called creationism, but the concept of evolution is the only theory ever to be proven, similar to how heliocentrism and the earth being round were previously proven. Much like those other theories, great debates had to be waged in order for the general public to accept them as fact. In the case of evolution that debate was the Scopes Monkey Trial. The trial was between the modernists and the fundamentalists, and while the details of the case concerned a specific law called the Butler Act, the main argument to be made on both sides concerned which was the correct theory, Evolution or Biblical scripture. 

Now, let's jump to the Cabrera vs. Trout debate. Much like the debate between Galileo and Pope Urban, and the State of Tennessee vs. John Scopes, the decision of who wins the MVP won't change every baseball fans' mind, but it serves as a necessary part of the process towards progress. In the years since Billy Beane used the concept of on-base percentage to take pennies and turn them into a playoff team, sabermetrics has claimed many Baseball fans, but hasn't changed the minds of most. The mere fact that the "new-school" sabermetric point of view makes a significant appearance in the discussion for the MVP award gives it more validity than ever before. 

I've heard numerous older pundits and sports people talk about how ludicrous it is to consider anyone but Miguel Cabrera for the MVP award because he won the first Triple Crown in 45 years, and his team made the playoffs. When making this argument all of these sports guys, including Mike Wilbon, Tony Kornheiser, Mike Greenberg, and Mike Golic, always mention that they don't believe any new statistics like WAR means very much in comparison to winning the Triple Crown. This may sound like an ornery and entrenched perspective, but by even mentioning statistics like WAR on national television, these respected sports minds give the sabermetric idea more credibility. 

The winner of the old school vs. new school debate does not depend on the winner of the AL MVP award because no matter the outcome, sabermetric believers have already won just by participating in the discussion. Cabrera may win the award, and while he isn't a bad choice, he is not the right one. New statistics are not scary; they just allow us to analyze the inner workings of the greatest game on the planet. A planet, that we know is spherical, revolves around he sun, and that has supported ever-evolving life for millions of years. 

!Felicidades Omar¡

What if I were to tell you that after 24 years at the same job, a true professional has decided to retire. Retirement is a natural part of employment life. 24 years working at the same company, firm, or with the same organization would be considered a lengthy career, one deserving of a send-off party with a cake, party hats, handshakes, hugs, and the obligatory, "speech, speech, speech, speech." Well, what if I were then to tell you that instead of all that, the 24-year veteran employee would get to throw out the first pitch at a Toronto Blue Jays game, in front of 20,000 screaming fans, and three famous fellow countrymen? That sounds like the best retirement party ever.

Yesterday, the final day of the 2012 Major League Baseball regular season, marked the final game for one of baseball's best Venezuelans, infielders, and overall players, Omar Vizquel. For those of you unfamiliar with the 45 year old, here is some history.

Vizquel broke into Major League Baseball with the Seattle Mariners in 1989, the same year as fellow Mariner Ken Griffey Jr. Vizquel came up to the Majors as a shortstop, playing 143 games for Seattle at that position at the age of 21. He stands only 5 feet 9 inches tall, and weighs close to 180 pounds, but he made up for his size with great speed, fantastic hands, and some of the best instincts any modern day shortstop has ever had. Vizquel played 5 seasons with the Mariners, winning a much-deserved gold glove in his final season with the team, before being traded to the Cleveland for Felix Fermin, Reggie Jefferson and cash. He became an instant defensive star for the Indians. As the everyday shortstop for Cleveland for an entire decade from 1994-2004, Vizquel played in 1,478 games, winning 8 gold gloves and attending 3 All-Star games. He was one of the mainstays, the centerpieces, the rocks of the great Indians teams of the mid to late 90's, a team that Cleveland fans still think should have won the 1997 World Series. 

In 2004, at the age of 37, Vizquel could have retired, finishing off a very good career, better than 90% of players drafted or signed by an MLB team. Instead, he signed a 3-year deal with the San Francisco Giants. He ended up playing 4 seasons by the bay, playing in 542 games, averaging 128 hits, 58 runs scored, and 17 stolen bases per season. As a side note, Vizquel averaged 22 stolen bases a season throughout his career, and between the ages of 37-41 he averaged just a tick below that at 17. It doesn't seem like Vizquel ages at the same rate of most MLB players. 

After ending his 4 year campaign with the Giants, Vizquel played one year for the Rangers, 2 for the Chicago White Sox, and his last season north of the border with the Toronto Blue Jays. In those last 4 years of his career, Vizquel played an average of 72 games per season, but in those 72 games he 55 hits a year and a .632 OPS. During his illustrious quartet of seasons, Vizquel played predominantly as utility infielder; filling in at which ever position he was asked to. He played 3rd base, shortstop, 2nd base, 1st base, and even once of twice in left field. For 19 seasons he played almost every game at shortstop, but for the last 4 years, he played wherever he was asked to play. That shows a love for the game.

So, other than a long career, why should we remember Omar Vizquel? There is another, some would say better, player ending a storied career this season, Atlanta Braves third baseman Chipper Jones. Chipper deserves his own article, and once the Braves are booted out of the playoffs, unless they win the World Series, I may very well commemorate Chipper's great career. Today is reserved for Omar Vizquel. According to www.baseball-almanac.com the first Venezuelan national to play in Major League Baseball was Alex Carrasquel who made his MLB debut in 1939 for the Washington Senators. He was a right-handed pitcher whose career lasted for 8 years. Since then, 273 Venezuelans have played Major League Baseball, but there has been only one Omar Vizquel. 

Now that we know who Vizquel is, let's look at some numbers in order to get a sense of what type of player he was. Over the course of his illustrious career, Vizquel compiled a 40.5 rWAR, 47.4 fWAR, and 29.4 WARP. According to Fangraphs, Vizquel has been the 11th best fielding shortstop since 1900, and the 31st best shortstop to play baseball since 1990. The only Venezuelan shortstop to rank higher than Vizquel was the great Luis Aparicio, who ironically showed up in Toronto to watch Vizquel's final MLB game. In the last half century, Vizquel ranks as the 14 best shortstop, higher than the likes of Nomar Garciaparra, Miguel Tejada, Maury Willis, and Edgar Renteria. According to Fangraphs WAR to dollars calculation, over the last decade, Vizquel has been worth $6 million dollars a year on the open market. In 2002 Vizquel turned 35 years old. 

As a hitter, Vizquel never dazzled like some of his contemporaries. He didn't rack up hits like Ripken or Jeter, hit home runs like A-Rod, but he managed to compile 2,877 hits, score 1,445 runs, and 404 bases in his career. He ends his career with more hits than Babe Ruth, Mel Ott, Brooks Robinson, Andre Dawson, and even fellow retiree Chipper Jones. He is also has the third most stolen bases amongst any hitter since 1900 with more than 2,800 career hits. Since 1900, Omar Vizquel has the 6th highest Clutch rating of any Major Leaguer at 7.63, behind only Tony Gwynn, Dave Parker, Pete Rose, Mark McLemore, and Scott Fletcher. Clutch is Fangraphs' way of calculating how well a player performed in high leverage situations. It's calculated as Clutch = (WPA / pLI) – WPA/LI. For more on the stat click HERE. Anything above a 2.0 clutch is considered great, but Vizquel ranks in the top 6 all-time in that category since 1900. Basically, if your team is down by 1 in the 9th inning with 2 outs and runners on 2nd and 3rd, you want the 5'9'' 180 lb Vizquel stepping to the plate because more often than not, he gets the job done. 

By almost every fielding metric in the game today, Vizquel is ranked near the top amongst shortstops. Since 2002, he has 48 defensive runs saved, and topped 20.0 UZR/150 4 times. Since these statistics weren't kept in the 1990's we do not know how good Vizquel was then, but we can only assume his numbers were if not the same, better. One of the most amazing aspects to Vizquel's fielding was his 2007 season with the SF Giants. According to Baseballprospectus' dominant fielding metric FRAA (fielding runs above average), Vizquel was the 8th best fielder in the game that year (13.1 FRAA). DRS(16) and UZR(23.2) concur that Vizquel, at the age of 41, was one of the best fielders in baseball. He defied the well-known idea that as a player ages they break down, with speed and quickness falling off more quickly than hitting ability. In order to be a great defender, especially in the infield, one needs speed and quickness, to say nothing of awareness, acumen, and agility, all of which Vizquel showed after the age of 40. 

So, all of this talk generally leads to the typical, age old, question of, "Is Omar Vizquel a Hall of Famer?" Well, that's a difficult question. he almost reached the immortal number of hits, 3,000. No player to reach 3,000 hits has been denied entrance into Baseball's hallowed up state New York cathedral, but Vizquel fell 123 hits short of that mark. He finished his career with only 59 more strikeouts than walks, but only a career on base percentage of .336. His 11 gold gloves would rank him second among all Hall of Fame shortstops, only 2 behind Ozzie Smith's 13. Shortstops depend somewhat on their double play partners, the second basemen, for good fielding, and Vizquel played with recent Hall of Fame second baseman Roberto Alomar throughout the 90's. On the other hand, Omar was able to win two Gold Gloves without Alomar in the National League in 2005 and 2006. 

Defensively, Vizquel is a no doubt Hall of Famer. Offensively, he lacks a bit. 

	Vizquel	Rank Among HOF SS
Hits	2,877	4th
Runs	1,445	5th
Stolen Bases	404	6th
HR	80	11th
RBI	954	11th
Batting Avg	0.272	17th
Gold Gloves	11	2nd

According to Baseball-reference, Vizquel ranks as the 237th best hitter in baseball history, just ahead of Jorge Posada and Hall of Fame shortstop Phil Rizzuto. Will Vizquel be elected into the Hall of Fame? I would ballpark it at a 40% chance he gets voted in. He will be first eligible in 2017, and I don't see him getting in on his first ballot. On the other hand, the decision rests on what the voters value? If they value defense, longevity, and compare him to his fellow shortstops, then I see him becoming part of baseball immortality, but if instead the voters see a hitter with good, but not HOF worthy batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage, then he may fall just short. If I had a vote, I would vote for Omar Vizquel. He played the position of shortstop the right way for 24 years. He was a clutch player, who had some of the surest hands, quickest feet, and power arms to play in the hole between second and third base. Most importantly, although not for HOF consideration, he will retire as one of the best Venezuelan Baseball players of all time. In a country where many see Baseball as their means of leaving a country full of narco-barrons and poverty, Vizquel bested the odds and became one of the best players ever. Congratulations Omar, on a fantastic career! Buena suerte en todos sus esfuerzos futuros.

Murderer's Row

Fear comes from a lack confidence that results from impending circumstances out of your control. A person or group of people feel fear when an opponent has the opportunity, nay likelihood, of causing them harm, pain, or suffering. In baseball, match ups, constitute the crux of every part of the game. Do I bring in the lefty from the bullpen, or stick with the starter to face the pinch hitter? Wait, what if the other team pinch runs for the man on first, do I tell the pitcher to throw over, worry about a possible hit-and-run, or let the pitcher focus on the hitter? Baseball is a game of situations, match ups, one-on-one battles that incur difficult decisions influenced by dozens of factors. When fear clouds the judgment, we tend to make bad decisions, overlook objective data, and panic.

When putting together a team, General Managers want to compile an imposing lineup. How they decide what imposing means generally lies within their philosophy. Billy Beane's A's teams of the early 2000's, got on base from top to bottom. Some GM's look for hitters who all have power, or speed, or some other quality that makes it difficult for pitchers as they work there way through the batting order. If a pitchers sees a group of hitters who consistently get on base, it means throwing lots of pitches, and needing to be precise where the strike zone is concerned. If a pitcher sees a lineup full of home run hitters it invites the pitcher to be careful about leaving pitches in the middle of the strike zone, or to throw fewer fastballs early in the count.

Fielder and Cabrera

Every so often, one of the best teams in baseball can put out a lineup with 8 or 9, depending on the league, hitters that all strike fear in some way in the opposing pitcher. More often, pecuniary constraints force GMs to concentrate some fear-inspiring hitter in the middle or towards the top of the team's batting order. For example, Dave Dombrowski, the Detroit Tigers GM, signed Prince Fielder this past offseason to compliment his other great hitter Miguel Cabrera in the middle of the Tigers order. Those two have combined for an 11.6 fWAR, 244 runs batted in, 73 home runs, and 190 runs scored. These two embody the term run producers. Nonetheless, they make up only 2/9 of the Tigers daily lineup.

While 3/9 does not constitute that much more than 2/9, but it is 1/3 of a team's lineup. So, I took a look at who has the best set of three-in-a-row hitters in the Major Leagues. 6 teams stuck out more than the others.

Atlanta Braves: I begin with Atlanta, for no other reason than they are only one of two teams on this list to have their threesome include the leadoff hitter. Michael Bourn, Martin Prado, and Jason Heyward have individually put together outstanding seasons. They have the highest combined fWAR of any of the trios I have yet to mention at 18.7. The three bat 1-2-3 in the lineup, combining for 508 hits and 265 runs scored. These three get on base, OBP's of .335 or higher, steal bases, 76 combined steals, and make up 38% of the runs scored for the entire Braves team this season.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Angels made big splashes in the offseason signing big fish free-agent Albert Pujols, as well as lefty C.J. Wilson. On the other hand, two of the three boppers in their lineup came from elsewhere. Mike Trout, the should be AL MVP, does his damage from the leadoff position, while Torri Hunter, who has spent half of his career in Anaheim, sits for the most part in the second spot. Pujols, who has had a somewhat lesser year in comparison to his MVP-like seasons in St. Louis, has still put up good enough numbers to make this threesome quite formidable. They combined for 18.5 fWAR, 75 home runs, 286 runs scored, and 499 hits. They average a .366 on base percentage, .507 slugging percentage, and all three had at least a 126 wRC+. Much of the production is weighted towards Trout, but Pujols and Hunter make it very difficult for opposing pitchers to find comfort after dealing with Trout. It is obvious that Trout gets on base, and Hunter and Pujols knock him in, as the two have 120 extra-base hits so far this season.

Washington Nationals: The Nationals represent one of the few teams that can post a lineup card, minus the pitcher, full of very good hitters. Especially since Jayson Werth returned to the lineup, this group of batters has proven a pitcher's nightmare. On the other hand, for our purposes in this discussion, let's focus on three specific Nats. Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, and Adam LaRoche. These three wouldn't strike fear just by name, but they do a great job of wearing out opposing pitchers. They do so to the tune of a 12.6 combined fWAR, but more importantly, 454 hits, 77 home runs, and at least a .338 OBP from each. Harper has the 3rd highest OPS and 3rd most extra base hits among National League center fielders this season. Most importantly, all three hitters make the opposing pitchers throw more pitches. The three have an average pitches seen per plate appearance of 3.96, which ranks in the top quarter of the National League.

Aaron Hill

Arizona Diamondbacks: This trio of hitters surprised me more than any other on the list. The Diamondbacks are not in playoff contention, nor do they have any MVP candidates, but Aaron Hill, Justin Upton, and Miguel Montero have proven to be dangerous. Much of the three's success is supplied from Hill and Montero, who are both having great seasons. On the other hand, while Justin Upton hasn't lived up to his 2011 campaign, he remains dangerous due to his combination of power, speed, and ability to hit to the opposite field. These three combined to score 260 runs, and compiled 466 hits on their way to a combined fWAR of 13.6. This threesome had a higher average wOBA than the Braves best three hitters (according to WAR the best three in a row hitters on the list), doing so despite an fWAR difference of 4.9. The category these three lack that stops them from being one of the top 2 trios is their power. With only 56 combined home runs and only one player's ISO above .200, Aaron Hill, it seems clear that had Justin Upton played up to his potential this might have been the three best hitters in a row in the entire league.

St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals have been one of the highest ranked offenses in the Major Leagues all season, so it is only fitting that they appear on this list. Matt Holliday, Yadier Molina, and Allen Craig have been huge for the Cardinals. Add in Carlos Beltran and David Freese on either end and you have a string of imposing hitters without any relief. Holliday, Molina, and Craig combined for a 15.0 fWAR and all three have at least a 6.50 RC/27 or higher, putting them all in the top 15 in the NL. These three are all right-handed, all have power, and 172 extra base hits. If we lop off Craig and add in Carlos Beltran, the trio of Beltran, Holliday, and Molina does a great job at getting on base with wOBAs of .348 or above, and an average walk percentage of 9.73%. Whether you use Beltran or Craig (both with 3.3 fWAR) the Cardinals provide a great combination of efficiency and power at the plate.

Ramirez and Hart

Milwaukee Brewers: This is the trio that sparked my interest in this piece. No trio makes pitchers as miserable as Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez, and Corey Hart. These three define murderer's row. A 17.7 combined fWAR does not do them justice for their offensive output. 507 combined hits, 98 home runs, 288 runs scored, and an average wRC+ of 146 put them in high esteem. When Braun, Ramirez, and Hart come to the plate, they use their best features, their muscles. Each brings to the plate an ISO of .239 or higher, and slugging percentages of .513 or higher. Braun carries a lot of the load here, but Ramirez and Hart aren't far behind.

It takes an entire team to win a ball game, but offensively, just a few players can often carry the load. If three hitters each have plate appearances, and they do so all in a row, it changes the way a pitcher has to prepare, and can often lead to compromising situations for managers. Baseball-Reference denotes low-leverage, medium-leverage, and high-leverage situations, and when three hitters like Trout, Hunter, and Pujols, or Braun, Ramirez, and Hart step to the plate, they will almost always provide more stress and pressure for a pitcher. Anything that can disrupt, even the best pitchers gives the hitting side, which is always at a disadvantage, more of a chance to succeed.

One important thing to note is that of the trios on this list with the highest combined WARs, neither the Angels nor the Brewers will likely be heading to October. What is most impressive about all of this, is that the Tigers' Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, despite not having a third player to back them up, have put together some of the best numbers for two hitters in a row in the Majors. These two mashers make it extremely difficult for opposing pitchers, especially since one is left-handed and other is a righty, and they have Austin Jackson at the top of the lineup, getting on base. While three fearsome hitter in a row definitely bests two, Prince and Miggy have made the best of their situation, and have seriously helped a defensively inept squad like the Tigers win the AL Central and make the playoffs.

Knuckle Sandwich

R.A. Dickey should win the National League Cy Young award. That's what I thought about a week ago. Nothing since then should have changed my mind. All Dickey has done in the last two weeks was throw 15.2 innings of 5-run ball against the Miami Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates, giving up 14 hits, 4 walks, 1 home run, and striking out 17. Essentially, he did what he's done all season. Here lies the problem: In the words of Jed Bartlett (A character on The West Wing), "Show me numbers." I can look at the Mets knucklballer and say "Wow, he has been dominant this entire season, he should win the Cy Young." I needed to prove it, and not just with any old evidence, I needed to prove it with numbers.

So, here are some numbers for you. Dickey is 20-6 with an NL leading 2.69 earned run average, 222 strikeouts, and 1.041 WHIP. These are standard statistics that baseball folk have used for years in order to evaluate pitchers. Due to the recent statistical revolution in baseball, I've learned to discount some of these statistics, substituting more accurate and descriptive ones in their place. For example, wins and losses mean very little when evaluating a pitcher alone because a lot of what determines whether a pitcher gets a win or a loss has little to do with the pitcher. Earned run average, can still tell us something about a pitcher in a grand sense, but such a statistics combines the play of a pitcher and his defense, instead of the isolating solely the contributions of the pitcher.

Alright, all of this is interesting, but sabermetricians have found a way to show how many wins a given player has contributed above a replacement level (similar to league average) player. These statistics combine most to all of a player's contributions and uses some math in order to normalize other variables like league, environment, etc... The problem is that different websites calculate WAR in different ways. The two main types are rWAR and fWAR. According to rWAR, calculated and used by Baseball-Reference, R.A. Dickey is the 3rd highest WAR amongst pitcher in the National League, trailing only the Cincinnati Reds Johnny Cueto and Los Angeles Dodgers Clayton Kershaw. On the other hand, fWAR, created by Fangraphs, has Dickey as the pitcher with the 6th highest WAR in the NL. Why the discrepancy?

I've read a number of articles about WAR, and they have told me that the major difference in the calculations of WAR is the specific defensive metric used. fWAR uses UZR, rWAR uses DRS, and WARP uses FRAA. Well that is for position players, not pitchers. So, I delved into how WAR is calculated for pitchers. Although rWAR and fWAR have some differences they are relatively minor, including the manner in which park factors are adjusted for, and whether the metric is adjusted for interleague play. Overall, the main difference is simple. The statistic each used to begin the calculation is different. Fangraphs uses FIP and Baseball-Reference uses Runs Allowed.

Let's begin with the easier of the two. Runs allowed is as simple as it sounds, it calculates the number of runs allowed by a pitcher, earned and unearned. FIP, fielding independent pitching, attempts to calculate everything a pitcher does during a game that he can control. They include, strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs. Fangraphs assumes that any ball put in play that isn't a home run is not the pitchers fault. While this is not always true, as we should assume that every MLB pitcher is subject to at least reasonable defense, when attempting to calculate how much a pitcher contributes to his team in order to compare him to other pitchers, using only those statistics that are solely attributed to a pitcher is reasonable. FIP is scaled to look and act just like ERA. So, in the end, rWAR includes a pitcher's team to some extent, while fWAR looks only at what a pitcher contribues while possibly leaving out some minor contributions.

So, why then does rWAR rank R.A. Dickey higher than fWAR, to the point at which we might not consider Dickey for the Cy Young award through Fangraph's goggles, but might do so when considering the confines of Baseball-Reference's rWAR? If rWAR might consider a pitcher's team too much, than it would make sense for Baseball-Reference to consider the Mets as an above average defense, right? Interestingly, the Mets have a -33 DRS, ranking them 6th from the bottom in that category.  So, what explains the disparity between Dickey's fWAR and rWAR?

We said that fWAR uses FIP, which focuses on a pitchers strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs.

Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Gio Gonzalez	193.1	9.36	3.4	0.42
Clayton Kershaw	211.2	8.97	2.47	0.68
Cliff Lee	198	8.86	1.27	1.05
Johnny Cueto	210	7.03	2.06	0.6
Wade Miley	187	6.45	1.78	0.63
R.A. Dickey	220	8.55	2.13	0.86

	HR/FB	FIP	WAR
Gio Gonzalez	6.10%	2.84	5.2
Clayton Kershaw	8.70%	2.99	4.8
Cliff Lee	11.40%	3.07	4.8
Johnny Cueto	7.70%	3.27	4.7
Wade Miley	6.70%	3.2	4.5
R.A. Dickey	10.60%	3.28	4.5

When a ball is put in play in the air vs. Dickey, it is a home run 10.6% of the time. This ranks second to worst amongst these top pitchers. This makes sense due to Dickey being a knuckleball pitcher. When a pitch that averages between 75mph and 85mph floats into the strike zone with little movement, as a bad knuckle ball does, MLB hitters will generally crush the ball. In addition, despite Dickey's high number of strikeouts, his BB/9 are not very good either. Gio Gonzalez overcomes a higher walk rate by allowing almost zero home runs and striking out hitters more often than Dickey, while Clayton Kershaw's more innings combined with his low HR/9 gives him the edge over R.A.

Here is something to consider. As a former pitcher, I can vouch for the fact that it is easier to pitch with a lead. Certainly, all pitchers should be able to perform just as well with or without a lead. On the other hand, the more a pitcher pitches with the lead, oftentimes the more chances he can take in order to get hitters out. The pitcher/batter battle is a chess game, with each player attempting to outthink his opponent. The pitcher, who pitches with the lead, can do more that a batter cannot predict, than the pitcher who pitches with a deficit. So, R.A. Dickey gets the 15th best run support from his team in the National League at 4.61 runs/game while Clayton Kershaw, who ranks second in fWAR and rWAR, has had the NL's 8th worst run support at 3.77 runs/game. Maybe, Dickey has it easier because the Mets give him a lead more often than the pitchers ahead of him. Whether this is true or not, it does not mean he is necessarily a worse pitcher than Kershaw.

So, should R.A. Dickey win the NL Cy Young award. Looking only at the statistics, I have to say I think Gio Gonzalez deserves the Cy Young award. Walks can get a pitcher into trouble quickly, and while Gonzalez has a 3.4 BB/9, his inability to give up homeruns means that those walks do not come back to bite him as much as other pitchers'. In addition, Gonzalez strikes hitters out. He does so to the tune of 9.36 K/9, second only to his teammate Steven Strasburg. Gonzalez even satisfies old school voters with 20 wins, 2.84 ERA, and 201 strikeouts.

Okay, Gio is good. In fact, he's been incredibly good, but what about my man R.A.? Well, Dickey has statistics fairly comparable to Gonzalez's and one thing that Gio doesn't. Dickey does it all throwing essentially one pitch. Everyone praises Yankees Closer Mariano Rivera for getting out three batters a game with one pitch, but R.A. performs a similar feat but multiplied by 7. Now, the knuckleball is different from the cutter. The cutter is merely a variation of a fastball, whereas the knuckleball is as similar to a fastball as a rocket ship. It is almost impossible to prepare for a knuckleball because event he pitcher doesn't know how the pitch will move and where it might go. While the knuckleball is difficult to hit, it is even more difficult to throw properly. When thrown improperly, a knuckleball is as straight as an arrow and looks as big as a beach ball to opposing hitters. This fact is seen by Dickey's homerun percentage.

Dickey throws the most difficult pitch known to man and does so incredibly well. Gio Gonzalez does the job a hair better than Dickey, but uses the typical pitcher's arsenal. Were Gonzalez above and beyond the better pitcher, I would award him the Cy Young without question, but due to the difficulty it takes to control a knuckleball, and the even greater difficulty it takes to dominate opposing hitter with said pitch, I think Dickey deserves the award. Phil Niekro is known as one of the best pitchers to ever throw a knuckleball, yet he never attained the success that Dickey has. The same is true of Tim Wakefield, the most recent pitcher to throw a knuckleball. Dickey's numbers show he is one of the best pitchers in the National League this year, and the way in which he has dominated NL hitters warrants him the Cy Young Award. So, here are my top 3 in the NL as of today:
1. R.A. Dickey
2. Gio Gonzalez
3. Cliff Lee

Senior Circuit Circus

We were all duped. That may sound dramatic, but we were fooled. In fact, we were fooled twice. And i think you know the saying. "Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me." Well, Ryan Braun fooled us once. He dazzled the Majors last season on rout to the National League's Most Valuable Player. He made conventional voters excited with a slash line of 332/.397/.597. He produced runs, hitting 33 home runs and knocking in 111 runs. He scored 109 runs, batting in the 3rd spot in the batting order, and even stole 33 bases. For those more inclined towards advanced metrics, Braun compiled a 7.7 fWAR, 178 wRC+, and wRAA of 58.6. Both Matt Kemp and Ryan Braun deserved the award, and even if you disagree with the selection (like I do), both players deserved the award, so neither choice was wrong. The deception came just after the season ended, when Major League Baseball suspended Braun for 50 games for a positive test showing that Braun took a banned substance. Immediately fans became puritanical, taking out their dusty copies of The Crucible, and calling for Braun's MVP award to be revoked, the MLB equivalent of death by stoning. Some called for an asterisk to reside next to his name in the record books to denote Braun's guilt, which is the MLB equivalent of wearing a big red A on your jersey, or am I mixing up my puritans?

Either way, Braun fought the case and through a technicality, MLB reversed their decision to suspend Braun. Most assumed, no matter what the conclusion, that Braun took PED's and it helped him win the MVP. So, the sneaky Braun got away, and fooled us for the second time. Now he's back, trying to fool us again. This season Braun has been better than ever before. Take a look:

Slash line	0.315/.390/.599
HR	40
RBI	107
Runs	98
Hits	175
SB	29
UZR/150	4.6
FRAA	3.6
DRS	10
fWAR	7.8
rWAR	6.8
WARP	5.9

So, Braun seems like a lock again for MVP. The Brewers lost cleanup hitter Prince Fielder to free agency, and while Aramis Ramirez, Fielder's replacement, has had a great season, he doesn't impose the same fear factor as Fielder did. Even more so, Braun has improved defensively, playing one of the better left fields in the National League. He's done all this, for a Brewers team that will not win as many games as they did last season. The team traded ace pitcher Zack Greinke at the trade deadline and has had some of the worst bullpen issues in the Majors, just ask the Phillies if you don't believe me.

So, making good use of the old adage to which I previously referred, I plan to make the case for someone other than the esteemed Mr. Braun to win the National League's 2012 MVP award.

The last catcher to win the National League Most Valuable Player Award was Johnny Bench in 1972. Catchers have historically not been the best players on their respective squads. They don't put up the flashiest numbers, spending more time working with pitchers and calling the game. Mike Piazza, arguably the best offensive catcher of all-time, never won an MVP. On the other hand, the American League has seen a catcher or two win the MVP with Joe Mauer winning the award in 2010, and Ivan Rodriguez accomplishing the feat in 1999, but it has been 40 years since an NL catcher won the award.  This streak could, and I argue, should be broken this season. Two candidates have broken away from the pack to distinguish themselves as catchers who also serve as very valuable players.

Yadier Molina has put together a great career thus far. As the younger brother of both Bengie and Jose Molina, who both play(ed) catcher in the Majors, Yadier has proven to be the best of the bunch. Fellow backstop (nickname for a catcher) Buster Posey is having an outstanding season. Posey, who plays for the NL West champion San Francisco Giants, has put together one of the best offensive seasons for a National League catcher since Mike Piazza. Oh, and he's doing all of this at the ripe young age of 25.

Offensively, both these catchers have excelled, but the edge has to go to Posey. While Molina, once thought to be just a defensive player with some offensive liabilities, has hit extremely well, Posey bests him in most categories. Let's take a look:

Molina

Games	129
Hitting	2012	NL Rank
wRC+	144	7th
wOBA	0.379	8th
Avg	0.321	4th
OBP	0.379	10th
SLG%	0.506	17th
ISO	0.186	27th
K%	9.9%	7th
BB%	7.8%	43rd
Contact %	85.7%	15th
Hits	152	21st
HR	20	Tied for 14th
RBI	64	36th
Runs	60	55th
BABIP	0.327	25th
Tav	0.317	20th
LD%	25.2%	5th
Clutch	1.16	6th
OppOPS	0.717	143rd

Posey

Games	139
Hitting	2012	NL Rank
wRC+	160	3rd
wOBA	0.404	3rd
Avg	0.335	3rd
OBP	0.409	1st
SLG%	0.545	4th
ISO	0.21	19th
K%	1.6%	42nd
BB%	11.4%	7th
Contact %	85.2%	17th
Hits	167	11th
HR	23	Tied for 10th
RBI	96	6th
Runs	74	Tied for 31st
BABIP	0.365	5th
Tav	0.349	1st
LD%	24.5%	6th
Clutch	-0.6	37th
OppOPS	0.717	28th

So, as you can see, while both players are having fantastic offensive seasons, Posey definitely has an edge. Where I think Molina makes a statement is in his K%. Batters want this number to be as low as possible, and Molina had shown can keep it his strikeouts down. Molina has consistently kept his K% down throughout his career. The other stat leaning towards Molina is his Clutch. This is a statistic calculated by www.fangraphs.com that determines how a player performs in high leverage situations. For those of you who care, the formula is:Clutch = (WPA / pLI) – WPA/LI 
Molina does extremely well in high leverage situations as 1.16 is considered great while Posey's -0.6 is designated between poor and below average. How a player performs in clutch situations is important, and more so valuable. The last three NL MVP's have posted a Clutch of 0.26, 0.20, and 0.60 respectively. Nonetheless, Buster Posey shows more power than Molina, hits for a better average, walks more, hits just as many line drives, and has done it all against better opposing pitching (OppOPS). Offensively, he gets the nod.

Offense is important, so much so, that it makes up most of what goes into the statistic Wins Above Replacement. Without runs, no one would ever win a baseball game, so by proving to be the better offensive catcher, Buster Posey has taken a solid lead in the MVP race. In the last few years, defense has become quite important as well. Now that we have metrics that can evaluate a players defense far better than fielding percentage, it is important to utilize them when discussing the Most Valuable Player Award. The catcher position is usually known as a premium defensive position due to the enormous responsibility placed upon the catcher during the course of a game. They must manage the pitching staff, oftentimes call the game, make sure no pitch gets by them for a passed ball or wild pitch, and crouch the entire time. Remember, catchers, unlike other position players, don't need great range when playing the field, so no one calculates UZR (ultimate zone rating) for them. On the other hand, DRS (defensive runs saved) and FRAA (fielding runs above average) are good ways of quantifying a catcher's defensive abilities. In addition, www.baseball-reference.com records a catcher's caught stealing percentage. Molina comes in 4th in the NL in that category while Posey does not.

Molina

Defensive	2012	NL Catcher Rank
DRS	17	1st
FRAA	2.1	3rd

Posey

Defensive	2012	NL Catcher Rank
DRS	-2	Tied Last
FRAA	-2.1	Last

So, defensively Yadier Molina makes Buster Posey look like a designated hitter. In fact, Posey is a defensive liability, and that includes throwing base runners out as well as fielding bunts and blocking pitches. Molina has always been known as a terrific defender, but with Posey ranking among NL catchers in the dumps, Molina gets a major advantage here. Catcher is one of the most demanding defensive positions on the field and Molina does it better than almost everyone. 

Most catchers are large, and if not large, they are ubiquitously slow. Base running is not a facet of the game most catchers have in their arsenal. This is true of both Molina and Posey, but base running is still an important part of the game. All other MVP candidates should be judged based upon the same categories, and base running is one of them. 

Molina                                                  Posey

	2012	NL Catcher Rank		2012	NL Catcher Rank
SB	12	1st	SB	1	Tied 4th
BsR	-5.8	Last	BsR	-4.1	2nd to Last

Surprisingly, Yadier Molina has 12 stolen bases, but when considering all base running, he ranks lower than Posey. Neither player, even in comparison to other catchers, run the bases well, but since Molina has 12 times the number of stolen bases than Posey, I have to give a slight edge to Molina. 

Finally, let's look at these two players through the lens of the many metrics that determine overall value.  Fangraphs, Baseballprospectus, and Baseball-reference all calculate WAR slightly differently. The calculations are different enough for each of their top 5 lists in WAR to be somewhat different. 

Molina                                                  Posey

Value	2012	NL Rank	Value	2012	NL Rank
fWAR	5.6	6th	fWAR	5.6	3rd
rWAR	6.7	Tied 2nd	rWAR	6.3	Tied 3rd
WARP	5.6	6th	WARP	5.6	1st
Value in $$	$28 Million		Value in $$	$31.5 Million

By all accounts, Buster Posey seems to have the advantage in overall value. Fangraphs and Baseballprospectus consider him better than Molina, and Fangraphs consideres Posey to be worth $3.5 million more than Molina. Interestingly, Buster Posey is making $615,000 this season, which is due mostly to the fact that he is still under his rookie contract. Molina recently signed a contract extension with the Cardinals, but it hasn't kicked in yet, so his 2012 salary is $7 million. Now, according to rWAR, Yadier Molina has been worth more wins than Buster Posey. 

One aspect of a catcher's responsibilities that I haven't referred to yet is their ability to handle a pitching staff. Catchers must learn about each pitcher, how to handle them from the physical side, how many pitches they throw, and the mental side, keeping them calm and focused. The catcher is the manager's aid on the field, which is probably why so many catchers become managers. Yadier Molina has caught 7 different starting pitchers and 19 different relievers. The Cardinals starters combined for 15.8 fWAR, and while Molina has less to do with that than the pitchers do, as a receiver, Molina impacts pitchers' performances to some degree. One Cardinals starter, Adam Wainwright, throws a curveball with lots of downward movement, making it a difficult pitch to handle for a catcher (-9.6 y-movement). Molina handles 3 starters whose fastballs reach or exceed 93 mph and 6 or more relievers whose fastballs exceed 95 mph. By all standards, Molina does a great job handling the Cardinals staff and bullpen. Also, Molina has played 128 games at catcher this season, catching 80% of the 

In comparison, Buster Posey has caught 6 different starting pitchers. Those starters throw only 5 different types of pitches between them, and none of them throw their fastballs faster than 92 mph. The total fWAR of the Giants starting staff is 12.0. On the other hand, Posey caught Matt Cain's perfect game, which by all standards is a great achievement. Posey has dealt with 17 different relief pitchers throwing 7 different types of pitches, with none of those 17 pitchers acheiving a velocity higher than 95 mph. Giants pitchers have thrown 51 wild pitches this season, many during Posey's time behind the plate in comparison to St. Louis pitchers who have thrown only 42. This shows us that Posey has to deal with pitchers who can be more wild than does Molina. On the other hand Molina may keep his pictures calm enough, and catch pitches in the dirt better than Posey, thus leading to fewer potential wild pitches. 

Overall, both these players have been great this year. Posey is one of the best hitters in the entire game. Posey is most comfortable when standing in the batter's box, not the catcher's box, and due to the greater importance placed on offense, Posey has the advantage in both fWAR and WARP. In contrast, Yadier Molina's defense is unparalleled in today's game. He forces base runners to change their travel plans, getting them to remain at 1st base instead of attempting to swipe second. Also, Posey has only started 109 games at catcher, which is good enough for 72% of the Giants games this season. Posey has been the rock for the Giants, especially since they lost Melky Cabrera due to a positive test for PED's. 

Ryan Braun will probably win the National League MVP award this season, but if I had a vote, I'd give it to either Posey or Molina. If you are someone who thinks that an MVP winner's team should make the playoffs in order to consider said player for the award, than you will be happy to know that the Cardinals have a 74.4% chance of making the playoffs, the Giants have already made the playoffs, and Braun's Brewers have only a 24.6% chance of making the playoffs. Catchers are often overlooked, but one thing is certain, some if not much of what catcher's do cannot be quantified by statistics. Outfielders are important, but catchers are far more valuable to a team. So, Baseball Writers Association of America voters, take a chance and vote for Posey or Molina, one of them deserves to win.