Senior Circuit Circus

We were all duped. That may sound dramatic, but we were fooled. In fact, we were fooled twice. And i think you know the saying. "Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me." Well, Ryan Braun fooled us once. He dazzled the Majors last season on rout to the National League's Most Valuable Player. He made conventional voters excited with a slash line of 332/.397/.597. He produced runs, hitting 33 home runs and knocking in 111 runs. He scored 109 runs, batting in the 3rd spot in the batting order, and even stole 33 bases. For those more inclined towards advanced metrics, Braun compiled a 7.7 fWAR, 178 wRC+, and wRAA of 58.6. Both Matt Kemp and Ryan Braun deserved the award, and even if you disagree with the selection (like I do), both players deserved the award, so neither choice was wrong. The deception came just after the season ended, when Major League Baseball suspended Braun for 50 games for a positive test showing that Braun took a banned substance. Immediately fans became puritanical, taking out their dusty copies of The Crucible, and calling for Braun's MVP award to be revoked, the MLB equivalent of death by stoning. Some called for an asterisk to reside next to his name in the record books to denote Braun's guilt, which is the MLB equivalent of wearing a big red A on your jersey, or am I mixing up my puritans?

Either way, Braun fought the case and through a technicality, MLB reversed their decision to suspend Braun. Most assumed, no matter what the conclusion, that Braun took PED's and it helped him win the MVP. So, the sneaky Braun got away, and fooled us for the second time. Now he's back, trying to fool us again. This season Braun has been better than ever before. Take a look:

Slash line	0.315/.390/.599
HR	40
RBI	107
Runs	98
Hits	175
SB	29
UZR/150	4.6
FRAA	3.6
DRS	10
fWAR	7.8
rWAR	6.8
WARP	5.9

So, Braun seems like a lock again for MVP. The Brewers lost cleanup hitter Prince Fielder to free agency, and while Aramis Ramirez, Fielder's replacement, has had a great season, he doesn't impose the same fear factor as Fielder did. Even more so, Braun has improved defensively, playing one of the better left fields in the National League. He's done all this, for a Brewers team that will not win as many games as they did last season. The team traded ace pitcher Zack Greinke at the trade deadline and has had some of the worst bullpen issues in the Majors, just ask the Phillies if you don't believe me.

So, making good use of the old adage to which I previously referred, I plan to make the case for someone other than the esteemed Mr. Braun to win the National League's 2012 MVP award.

The last catcher to win the National League Most Valuable Player Award was Johnny Bench in 1972. Catchers have historically not been the best players on their respective squads. They don't put up the flashiest numbers, spending more time working with pitchers and calling the game. Mike Piazza, arguably the best offensive catcher of all-time, never won an MVP. On the other hand, the American League has seen a catcher or two win the MVP with Joe Mauer winning the award in 2010, and Ivan Rodriguez accomplishing the feat in 1999, but it has been 40 years since an NL catcher won the award.  This streak could, and I argue, should be broken this season. Two candidates have broken away from the pack to distinguish themselves as catchers who also serve as very valuable players.

Yadier Molina has put together a great career thus far. As the younger brother of both Bengie and Jose Molina, who both play(ed) catcher in the Majors, Yadier has proven to be the best of the bunch. Fellow backstop (nickname for a catcher) Buster Posey is having an outstanding season. Posey, who plays for the NL West champion San Francisco Giants, has put together one of the best offensive seasons for a National League catcher since Mike Piazza. Oh, and he's doing all of this at the ripe young age of 25.

Offensively, both these catchers have excelled, but the edge has to go to Posey. While Molina, once thought to be just a defensive player with some offensive liabilities, has hit extremely well, Posey bests him in most categories. Let's take a look:

Molina

Games	129
Hitting	2012	NL Rank
wRC+	144	7th
wOBA	0.379	8th
Avg	0.321	4th
OBP	0.379	10th
SLG%	0.506	17th
ISO	0.186	27th
K%	9.9%	7th
BB%	7.8%	43rd
Contact %	85.7%	15th
Hits	152	21st
HR	20	Tied for 14th
RBI	64	36th
Runs	60	55th
BABIP	0.327	25th
Tav	0.317	20th
LD%	25.2%	5th
Clutch	1.16	6th
OppOPS	0.717	143rd

Posey

Games	139
Hitting	2012	NL Rank
wRC+	160	3rd
wOBA	0.404	3rd
Avg	0.335	3rd
OBP	0.409	1st
SLG%	0.545	4th
ISO	0.21	19th
K%	1.6%	42nd
BB%	11.4%	7th
Contact %	85.2%	17th
Hits	167	11th
HR	23	Tied for 10th
RBI	96	6th
Runs	74	Tied for 31st
BABIP	0.365	5th
Tav	0.349	1st
LD%	24.5%	6th
Clutch	-0.6	37th
OppOPS	0.717	28th

So, as you can see, while both players are having fantastic offensive seasons, Posey definitely has an edge. Where I think Molina makes a statement is in his K%. Batters want this number to be as low as possible, and Molina had shown can keep it his strikeouts down. Molina has consistently kept his K% down throughout his career. The other stat leaning towards Molina is his Clutch. This is a statistic calculated by www.fangraphs.com that determines how a player performs in high leverage situations. For those of you who care, the formula is:Clutch = (WPA / pLI) – WPA/LI 
Molina does extremely well in high leverage situations as 1.16 is considered great while Posey's -0.6 is designated between poor and below average. How a player performs in clutch situations is important, and more so valuable. The last three NL MVP's have posted a Clutch of 0.26, 0.20, and 0.60 respectively. Nonetheless, Buster Posey shows more power than Molina, hits for a better average, walks more, hits just as many line drives, and has done it all against better opposing pitching (OppOPS). Offensively, he gets the nod.

Offense is important, so much so, that it makes up most of what goes into the statistic Wins Above Replacement. Without runs, no one would ever win a baseball game, so by proving to be the better offensive catcher, Buster Posey has taken a solid lead in the MVP race. In the last few years, defense has become quite important as well. Now that we have metrics that can evaluate a players defense far better than fielding percentage, it is important to utilize them when discussing the Most Valuable Player Award. The catcher position is usually known as a premium defensive position due to the enormous responsibility placed upon the catcher during the course of a game. They must manage the pitching staff, oftentimes call the game, make sure no pitch gets by them for a passed ball or wild pitch, and crouch the entire time. Remember, catchers, unlike other position players, don't need great range when playing the field, so no one calculates UZR (ultimate zone rating) for them. On the other hand, DRS (defensive runs saved) and FRAA (fielding runs above average) are good ways of quantifying a catcher's defensive abilities. In addition, www.baseball-reference.com records a catcher's caught stealing percentage. Molina comes in 4th in the NL in that category while Posey does not.

Molina

Defensive	2012	NL Catcher Rank
DRS	17	1st
FRAA	2.1	3rd

Posey

Defensive	2012	NL Catcher Rank
DRS	-2	Tied Last
FRAA	-2.1	Last

So, defensively Yadier Molina makes Buster Posey look like a designated hitter. In fact, Posey is a defensive liability, and that includes throwing base runners out as well as fielding bunts and blocking pitches. Molina has always been known as a terrific defender, but with Posey ranking among NL catchers in the dumps, Molina gets a major advantage here. Catcher is one of the most demanding defensive positions on the field and Molina does it better than almost everyone. 

Most catchers are large, and if not large, they are ubiquitously slow. Base running is not a facet of the game most catchers have in their arsenal. This is true of both Molina and Posey, but base running is still an important part of the game. All other MVP candidates should be judged based upon the same categories, and base running is one of them. 

Molina                                                  Posey

	2012	NL Catcher Rank		2012	NL Catcher Rank
SB	12	1st	SB	1	Tied 4th
BsR	-5.8	Last	BsR	-4.1	2nd to Last

Surprisingly, Yadier Molina has 12 stolen bases, but when considering all base running, he ranks lower than Posey. Neither player, even in comparison to other catchers, run the bases well, but since Molina has 12 times the number of stolen bases than Posey, I have to give a slight edge to Molina. 

Finally, let's look at these two players through the lens of the many metrics that determine overall value.  Fangraphs, Baseballprospectus, and Baseball-reference all calculate WAR slightly differently. The calculations are different enough for each of their top 5 lists in WAR to be somewhat different. 

Molina                                                  Posey

Value	2012	NL Rank	Value	2012	NL Rank
fWAR	5.6	6th	fWAR	5.6	3rd
rWAR	6.7	Tied 2nd	rWAR	6.3	Tied 3rd
WARP	5.6	6th	WARP	5.6	1st
Value in $$	$28 Million		Value in $$	$31.5 Million

By all accounts, Buster Posey seems to have the advantage in overall value. Fangraphs and Baseballprospectus consider him better than Molina, and Fangraphs consideres Posey to be worth $3.5 million more than Molina. Interestingly, Buster Posey is making $615,000 this season, which is due mostly to the fact that he is still under his rookie contract. Molina recently signed a contract extension with the Cardinals, but it hasn't kicked in yet, so his 2012 salary is $7 million. Now, according to rWAR, Yadier Molina has been worth more wins than Buster Posey. 

One aspect of a catcher's responsibilities that I haven't referred to yet is their ability to handle a pitching staff. Catchers must learn about each pitcher, how to handle them from the physical side, how many pitches they throw, and the mental side, keeping them calm and focused. The catcher is the manager's aid on the field, which is probably why so many catchers become managers. Yadier Molina has caught 7 different starting pitchers and 19 different relievers. The Cardinals starters combined for 15.8 fWAR, and while Molina has less to do with that than the pitchers do, as a receiver, Molina impacts pitchers' performances to some degree. One Cardinals starter, Adam Wainwright, throws a curveball with lots of downward movement, making it a difficult pitch to handle for a catcher (-9.6 y-movement). Molina handles 3 starters whose fastballs reach or exceed 93 mph and 6 or more relievers whose fastballs exceed 95 mph. By all standards, Molina does a great job handling the Cardinals staff and bullpen. Also, Molina has played 128 games at catcher this season, catching 80% of the 

In comparison, Buster Posey has caught 6 different starting pitchers. Those starters throw only 5 different types of pitches between them, and none of them throw their fastballs faster than 92 mph. The total fWAR of the Giants starting staff is 12.0. On the other hand, Posey caught Matt Cain's perfect game, which by all standards is a great achievement. Posey has dealt with 17 different relief pitchers throwing 7 different types of pitches, with none of those 17 pitchers acheiving a velocity higher than 95 mph. Giants pitchers have thrown 51 wild pitches this season, many during Posey's time behind the plate in comparison to St. Louis pitchers who have thrown only 42. This shows us that Posey has to deal with pitchers who can be more wild than does Molina. On the other hand Molina may keep his pictures calm enough, and catch pitches in the dirt better than Posey, thus leading to fewer potential wild pitches. 

Overall, both these players have been great this year. Posey is one of the best hitters in the entire game. Posey is most comfortable when standing in the batter's box, not the catcher's box, and due to the greater importance placed on offense, Posey has the advantage in both fWAR and WARP. In contrast, Yadier Molina's defense is unparalleled in today's game. He forces base runners to change their travel plans, getting them to remain at 1st base instead of attempting to swipe second. Also, Posey has only started 109 games at catcher, which is good enough for 72% of the Giants games this season. Posey has been the rock for the Giants, especially since they lost Melky Cabrera due to a positive test for PED's. 

Ryan Braun will probably win the National League MVP award this season, but if I had a vote, I'd give it to either Posey or Molina. If you are someone who thinks that an MVP winner's team should make the playoffs in order to consider said player for the award, than you will be happy to know that the Cardinals have a 74.4% chance of making the playoffs, the Giants have already made the playoffs, and Braun's Brewers have only a 24.6% chance of making the playoffs. Catchers are often overlooked, but one thing is certain, some if not much of what catcher's do cannot be quantified by statistics. Outfielders are important, but catchers are far more valuable to a team. So, Baseball Writers Association of America voters, take a chance and vote for Posey or Molina, one of them deserves to win. 

No Hits, No Runs, No Problem

Santana Celebrates with Catcher Josh Thole

On Friday night the Mets played the Cardinals in the beginning of a four game series.  This seemingly innocuous inter-divisional series turned into an historic one very quickly.  Johan Santana made sure that Mets fans, and baseball fans everywhere, would remember June 1st, 2012.  Santana threw the first no-hitter in New York Mets history.  For some perspective, think about this: The Mets franchise began in 1962, replacing those of the Brooklyn Dodgers and New York Giants, who departed New York for Los Angeles and San Francisco respectively.  Half a century later, the 2012 Mets are an interesting team.   The Mets have stormed the 2012 season, thought to be a rebuilding year, with ferocity.  Now midway through the season, they find themselves tied atop the tightly packed NL East, a place which no analyst, pundit, or fan thought they would occupy.  They have won 31 games, doing so with mostly home grown players whom few thought would contribute sun flower seed shells to the dugout floor let alone 239 runs to the scoreboard (4th in the NL).  At one point this season, the Mets, starting lineup contained players all from their farm system, and daring feat.

Despite the 2012 Mets doing their best job to imitate the “Amazin's” of the past, nothing can overshadow Johan Santana's recent no-hitter.  Santana faced the Cardinals, the National League's best offense, making them look like a Little league team playing at PETCO Park.  Despite the no-hitte result, Santana wasn't at his best Friday night,  his control shaky at times, especially when throwing his fastball.  He walked 5, struck out 8, and threw a career high 134 pitches in the momentous effort.  Nonetheless, he was effectively wild to the point that hitters could not pick up his dynamic changeup, which he used early, often, and on any count.  Santana did a fantastic job keeping the St. Louis hitters <consider “sluggers” instead for alliterative effect> off balance, forcing them to swing at pitches out of the zone and keeping them guessing whether they would next encounter his incredibly deceptive changeup.

Santana's no-hitter did not occur without some controversy.  Former Met Carlos Beltran hit a line drive down the third base line that on instant replay clearly hit the line, making it a fair ball and thus a hit (video footage of the play can be seen here).  Not so fast, said third base umpire Adrian Johnson,who called the screamer a foul ball, thus continuing Beltran's at bat and keeping the no-hitter intact.  The Saturday morning St. Louis Post-Dispatch sports section prominently placed an asterisk next to "no-hitter", making an obvious reference to the hit that wasn't. <St. Louis is a town well accustomed to asterisks, eh?> While Cardinals fans may not be happy with the result Friday night, is this missed call such a big deal?  Certainly, Adrian Johnson made the wrong call, and it may anger some to see that call stand. However, until MLB incorporates instant replay into game decisions, fans must expect the human element to come into play.    In no way did Adrian Johnson's blunder fall in the same category as the missed call that cost Armando Galarraga a perfect game, but it does rekindle the on going argument in baseball concerning the a role for instant replay.   

Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson

In the end, the call on the field was foul ball, giving Johan Santana the first no-hitter of his career and in Mets history.  This leaves the San Diego Padres as the lone franchise in MLB history with no pitcher having thrown a no-hitter.  For comparison's sake, the Dodgers franchise has had 20 no-hitters, the most in MLB history.  As someone pointed out to me, the Padres also have never had a hitter hit for the cycle, but the latter event seems more of an aesthetic accomplishment than does a no-hitter.  Now that the Mets have the no-hitter monkey off from their backs, perhaps fans will take notice of their team's overall success.  The 2012 Mets have a bright future with minds like Sandy Alderson, Paul DePodesta, and J.P. Riccardi in the front office and a solid manager, Terry Collins, at the helm.  Watch out for the Mets: they exude a great attitude on the field, and in a tight and competitive NL East, anything can happen between midseason and the playoffs.

Power Rankings June 13th

Top Ten Teams as of June 13th: On Mondays, most sports websites come out with their power rankings. Power rankings are a complete ranking of teams in a sports league from top to bottom. Usually websites list the team, their record and then a small piece about how they have been playing lately. Power rankings often are superficial, worth only a quick glace because they provide little information and are fairly subjective. I find baseball power rankings uninteresting because they rarely surprise me, and untrustworthy due to lack of substance. That being said, for sports for which I have less in-depth knowledge, I like power rankings. They provide me with a quick overall summary rather than requiring me tolook into in depth stats and other analysis to get a sense of what is going on.

Despite my lack of enthusiasm for baseball power rankings, I figured I would provide my own rankings for this week. I won't go into all 30 MLB teams, but I will mention my top 10.

1. Boston Red Sox:
The Red Sox have been on fire the last few weeks. Adrian Gonzalez is proving to be exactly what the Red Sox were hoping he would be: an RBI machine that can hit for average while playing well above average defense at first base. Their pitching has been great too, with old timer Tim Wakefield filling in very nicely for the injured Daisuke Matsuzaka. The Sox pitching staff gave up only 6 runs to a fairly potent Blue Jays offense in a three game series. To give some perspective on the Sox offensive awesomeness, they scored 16 runs in one game against the Jays, which is 2.5 times the number of runs the Jays scored in the whole series. If they keep this up, they will have a chance to sport the MVP (Gonzalez), Cy Young winner (Lester) and at least an AL Pennant.

2. Philadelphia Phillies:
The Phillies are a team with a specific modus operandi. They out-pitch you at least 3 out of every 5 games, most likely 4/5. Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, and Hamels all looked great their last times out, including Oswalt's best start since coming off of the DL. The bullpen has had some ups and downs with injuries and bad pitching from J.C. Romero, but overall most games they only pitch the 8 and 9 innings. Between Madson, Contreras, Stutes (rookie), and Bastardo there isn't much left to want out of the backend of a bullpen. The offense still leaves something to be desired, but with pitching like the Phillies have, you don't need massive amounts of runs. Ryan Howard's batting average is low, but his rbi totals are 3rd in the National League. Chase Utley seems to be hitting his stride lately, but that was against meager Chicago Cubs pitching. Overall the team has a .320 obp which is good for 18th in the majors. If they get number up, more runs will come.

3. New York Yankees:
I thought about putting the Milwaukee Brewers in this spot, but the Yankees can't be overlooked so noticeably, even for someone who despises them. Curtis Granderson, Mark Teixeira, and Alex Rodriguez are doing the heavy lifting for the Yankees offense. Home runs are their go-to weapon, especially for left-handed hitter with Granderson (20), Teixeira (19) and A-rod (13). They use that short porch in right-field to perfection. Pitching-wise, they will most likely lose Jaba for a while, which hurts because he was pitching very well. Colon will go to the DL as well, but they can combat that with good hitting. The Yankees’ strategy for the near future has to be to score lots of runs to back a barely above average pitching staff. Oh, and Jeter accomplishing 3,000 hits is nice too. There is a good article by Tyler Kepner in NYT Sunday sports section on Jeter and Roberto Clemente.

4. Milwaukee Brewers:
Fourth place is where I will put the recently rising Brewers. Greinke, Gallardo, and Marcum make up a solid pitching staff that is currently healthy and pitching well. With Axford handling the end of games, the Brewers have innings 1-6 and 9 covered for probably 4 out of every 5 games. Everything else is dependent upon their hitting which is outstanding. They have: Prince Fielder, 2nd in NL in HR(19), 1st in NL in RBI (58), 4th in NL in BB (37), 2nd in NL in SLG (.627), and 3rd in NL in OPS (1.042) and Ryan Bruan, 6th in NL in HR (14)4th in NL in RBI (48), 1st in NL in R (48), 5th in NL in BB (35), SB (14), SLG (.560), and OPS (.958). The Brewers are designed to win now, and although St. Louis has held the top spot in the NL Central most of the year, the Brewers could easily take over the top spot and hold it until September.

5. Atlanta Braves:
The Braves have come on very strong of late. They have been doing so with all around good play. Their pitching, which is stellar, has been just that, with Jair Jurjens, Tommy Hanson, and Derek Lowe pitching well in their last three starts. Tim Hudson has had his ups and downs this year, but he's a sinker ball pitcher who throws strikes and overall such pitchers do well. Hitting-wise, they have been getting great performances from Brian McCann and Freddie Freeman. Freeman, a rookie, is hitting well against both LHP and RHP. With Jason Heyward on the DL, this team has hung around offensively, and has done so well enough to boast a .576 winning percentage. Much kudos to Frank Wren, GM of the Braves, for putting together a great bullpen of pitchers who all throw hard.

6. St. Louis Cardinals:
Although the Cardinals were recently swept by division rival Milwaukee, the team still has 38 wins, and is only out of the division lead by .5 games. With Albert Pujols beginning to put up better power numbers and Lance Berkman crushing the ball behind him, the Cardinals have the middle of the order muscle needed to win. They also have an underrated pitching staff. Chris Carpenter hasn't pitched up to his usual ways, but Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse, and Jack Westbrook are performing at least average to above average. The Cardinals are a good team, but if they don't play very well over the next two months, the Brewers will take a commanding lead in the central that may prove insurmountable.

7. Texas Rangers:
No matter what changes the Rangers make, their success has always been centered around their hitting, and this season is no different. Michael Young, a healthy Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz, Adrian Beltre, and Mitch Moreland have given opposing pitchers fits. Young, Kinsler, and Moreland all have OBPs in the top 40 in the AL. Pitching-wise, Jose Ogando has been a great surprise and C.J. Wilson continues to grow and succeed against good lineups. Agreat stat for them is Ogando’s 0.90 WHIP, which is pretty good. They should be able to hold off the Angels and Mariners' meager attempts to win first place in the west.

8. San Francisco Giants:
The Giants are the most puzzling team in the major leagues. Their lineup is riddled with no-names and old has-beens, yet they lead the NL west and have the most come-from-behind wins in the majors. This team uses their huge and oddly shaped ballpark to its advantage. They have a great fan base, a great manager in Bruce Bochy, and probably the best end –of-the-game pitchers in the game. Sergio Romo, Javier Lopez, and Brian Wilson are shut down 8th and 9th inning pitchers who rarely relinquish a lead and predominantly keep their team in the game late, allowing for comebacks. Lincecum hasn't pitched as well as past years, but he has the ability to pitch a complete game shutout every time he takes the hill. With Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez behind him, this team will always be in the game. Losing Buster Posey and Freddie Sanchez won't be easy, but this team has yet to stop surprising me this year with their tenacity and ability to prevent opposing teams from scoring, two variables that often lead to victories.

9. Detroit Tigers:
The Tigers have been really good lately. There is no other way to say it. They have given up the six fewest hits of any pitching staff in the AL, which is an improvement from last year. When the Tigers went to the World Series they did it with pitching. Justin Verlander is a top 10 pitcher with top 5 talent. The fact is, although their pitching is decent, their offense is fantastic, carrying them to the top of the AL Central. Miguel Cabrera is putting up MVP-like stats again, though he is getting help from Victor Martinez, Brennan Boesch, and Johnny Peralta. The biggest surprise has been Max Scherzer, who has 8 victories, and a 2.53 strike out to walk ratio. He needs to limit the number of base runners because he pitches better from the windup, but overall he's having a career year.

10. Arizona Diamondbacks:
This may seem odd—the D-back making the top ten—but winning-percentage-wise, they have the Cleveland Indians bested. The Indians were my next choice for this spot, but they have sputtered lately losing 9 out of their last 10. Arizona has the best run differential in the NL west, with a +22 in comparison to the 1st place Giants who have a -3 run differential. The D-backs weren't supposed to be this good, in fact they were supposed to compete with San Diego for the bottom of the NL west, which is code for competing for the worst record in the NL. Their offense is centered around hitting the long ball, they have the 3rd most runs scored in the NL, and they have the top slugging percentage and HR's hit. With a sub 4.00 team ERA that is equal to the major league average, the D-backs have discovered what I call the "Colorado Rockies playbook for success". They take good arms that are unproven and hope they pitch at least at average while allowing their young, speedy, powerful hitters to unleash their impressive power numbers on other average pitching staffs. In the past it has been Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, Seth Smith, and Todd Helton performing these tasks for the Rockies. In this case Justin Upton, Chris Young, Ryan Roberts, and Kelly Johnson are putting up the necessary power to propel the D-backs into the power rankings top ten.