It All Comes Down To This

Tonight it begins. The World Series is the big, flashy, and exciting number that ends the musical that is the Major League Baseball season. In the spring, 29 teams set forth to conquer the baseball world, and one set forth to re-conquer it. The 750 players who began the season on the 25-man rosters of each team clawed tooth and nail, legging out doubles on bloop hits to the outfield, running from left-centerfield all the way to right-center to make a diving catch, and blocking every breaking ball in the dirt in order to attain baseball glory. Unfortunately, for all but 50 this season did not turn out the way they had hoped. Injuries, coaching changes, trades, interviews gone wrong, hanging breaking balls, mental errors, and of course randomness caused 28 teams to falter, and only two to prevail.

The Detroit Tigers and San Francisco Giants will begin the 2012 World Series tonight in the chilly city by the bay to duke it out for the right to be crowned 2012 champions. So, there is little left to do but evaluate the two teams, and pick a winner, knowing that the chances of the series playing out like any of us think it will is ludicrous. Let's go step-by-step, and delve into each team, by looking at their starting rotations, offenses, bullpens, and defenses, to see which team should be more hopeful entering the World Series.

Starting Rotations:

Justin Verlander

In order to get this far, both teams must have good pitching, it is far to difficult win games without above-average pitching. In general, there are three types of outs, ground balls, balls in the air, and strikeouts. Pitchers control strikeouts without the aid of their defense, which makes them quite valuable. Also, the lack of a ball being put in play leaves little room for mistakes, or freak hits like the one that hit Hunter Pence's bat three times before landing in play. The Tigers not only have the best pitcher in the series, Justin Verlander, but they have the two top starters in terms of strikeouts. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander each had K/9 above 9.00 this season, something no other starter in this series can claim. Consequently these two starters rank 1st and 3rd in fastball usage amongst the other starters in this series, meaning they come at the hitters trying to blow them away, as well as set up their off-speed stuff.  In fact, three of the Tigers four starters have the lowest contact percentages of the pitchers in the series, while all 4 Giants pitchers get contact on 80% of pitches they throw. All 4 Giants starters had 90 or higher FIP- this season while all four Tigers hurlers had sub 90 FIP-.

Tigers pitchers don't allow many base runners, but when they do, only Justin Verlander is able to pitch well with runners on. Fister, Sanchez, and Scherzer give up wOBA's of .310 or greater with runners on base while no Giants starter has a wOBA that high with runners on. So, if the Tigers can keep men off base, they should perform well, but when the Giants pitchers run into trouble, they prove up to the task of keeping production down. So, a good strategy might be to allow Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder to reach base, but then shut down the rest of the Detroit offense. The same sentiment is true in high leverage situations. The Giants starters, as a group, have a lower wOBA against in more pressure filled situations than do their American League counterparts.

Overall, it seems like these two teams' starters each have their own distinct strengths and weaknesses. The one factor that truly favors the Tigers is that they begin the series with Justin Verlander, and if Jim Leyland decides it is best, he can have Justin start game 1, game 4, and game 7. The Giants counter with Barry Zito in game one, having used Matt Cain to secure the NL pennant in game 7 of the NLCS, and thus would be at a disadvantage. On the other hand, the only team to use a three man rotation in the last 3 World Series was the 2009 Yankees, so the trend is to use a four man group. In the end, this is the playoffs, and it isn't about power pitching as much as it is about smart pitching. The Giants 4 pitchers all deal well with base runners, men in scoring position, and pressure filled situations, three situations that arrise often when two evenly matched squads play. I give a slight advantage to San Francisco's staff.

Offense:

A team's offense has many parts to it. Some teams hit better for power, others have higher on base percentages, some cause opposing pitchers to work harder than usual. A team's offense is often built around the park in which the team plays. The Giants play in spacious AT&T Park, which yielded the fewest home runs in the majors this season, thus their lineup isn't filled with sluggers like Miggy Cabrera and Prince Fielder, but instead with hitters who make more contact like Marco Scutaro, Angel Pagan, and Buster Posey. The Tigers play in a spacious park as well, but they were able to hit 163 home runs this season in comparison to the Giants who managed only 103, good for last in the Majors.

Buster Posey

	Giants	Tigers	MLB Avg
wOBA	0.314	0.328	0.315
HR	103	163
wRC+	99	105	96
BABIP	0.315	0.307	0.297
Runs	718	726
WPA	10.75	2.82
Clutch	5.16	-0.15
Contact %	81.40%	80.60%	79.70%
GB/FB	1.48	1.3	1.33
IFH%	7.00%	5.10%	6.50%
K%	17.70%	18.00%	19.80%
LD%	22.10%	21.70%	20.90%

This chart shows where the two offenses stood in during the season. In order to get this far, the Giants offense has used its strengths. They do a great job of making contact, not striking out, hitting line drives, and most importantly, performing well in the clutch. The Tigers offense looks to score most of its runs when Austin Jackson, Quintin Berry, and Omar Infante reach base because the two hitters that follow them produced the most runs of any two hitters in MLB this season. Cabrera and Fielder will provide the best at-bats in the World Series, but those at bats mean much less if the Giants can keep the hitters who precede them in the lineup from reaching base safely. The more games played in the series, the more it favors the Giants offense, due to their much-increased ability to put the ball in play. On the other hand, the Tigers offense is far superior to the Giants in high leverage situations, and with runners on base. So, if the Tigers can get men on base, their offense has a great chance to do some damage. Overall, offensively, the Tigers have the advantage. Even if this series only goes 5 games, it will be difficult to keep Jackson, Berry, and Infante from reaching base, which makes it more difficult to pitch to Cabrera and Fielder. The Giants pitching is very good, but I don't think it can hold the Detroit hitters from scoring runs.

Relief Pitching:

When it comes to bullpens, which are important in playoff series, let's look at the most used relievers because they are the pitchers the managers trust most, and thus will use most often. For the Tigers those pitchers are Phil Coke, Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel, and despite recent performances, Jose Valverde. Bruce Bochy uses Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, George Kontos, Santiago Casilla, and Javier Lopez most often. Lopez is a situational lefty, so let's leave him out for now.

In the regular season, the advantage would have gone to the Tigers, with Coke, Valverde, and Dotel pitching very well out of the Detroit bullpen. On the other hand, the Giants pen has been outstanding this postseason, a sign of a winning team. Last year, both the Rangers and Cardinals sported great bullpens in the playoffs, but the Cardinals were able to get more out of their hard throwers than the Rangers did out of their ground ball relievers.

In the NLCS, the only two Giants relievers to let up a run were George Kontos and Guillermo Mota, while the only Tigers reliever to allow a run in the ALCS was Jose Valverde. Tigers relievers threw 11.2 innings in the ALCS and struck out 11 batters while the Giants relievers threw 16.2 innings and struck out 18 Cardinal hitters. In the regular season, Giants relievers relied on ground balls much more than strikeouts while the Tigers bullpen went the opposite way, sporting low BABIPs but also low ground ball percentages. Most importantly, when it comes to clutch situations, neither team's bullpen had the advantage in the regular season, both sported relievers with clutch numbers to the left of the number line and some relievers whose clutch numbers were positive.

Using only the eye test, I would say the Giants bullpen looks better heading into this series than does the Tiger's pen, but the statistics show more of a push. The Giants have used their bullpen more often than the Tigers in the playoffs, and often times, pitchers who don't rely on strikeouts gain an advantage from pitching more often. In the end, the slight advantage goes to the Giants, purely because they have more reliable relievers than the Tigers. Jim Leyland has little confidence in Jose Valverde, and may have too much confidence in Phil Coke, while Bruce Bochy seems confident going to his bullpen whenever he needs to.

Defense:

When it comes to defense, these two teams couldn't be further apart. The three main defensive metrics in use are FRAA, UZR, and DRS. FRAA is a metric used for individuals, but Baseball Prospectus uses a version of Defensive Efficiency called PADE, which was developed by Bill James, to calculate a teams defensive efficiency while factoring in park and league effects. Here are the results.

Angel Pagan Diving to Make a Catch

	Giants	Tigers
DRS	-7	-32
UZR	8.6	-28.1
PADE	0.84	-2.36

These statistics are generally seen quite obviously on the field. Just from the eye-test everyone who has watched baseball this season can tell you that the Tigers have a horrible defense. On the other hand, the same visual test makes the Giants out to be a bit better than they are. None of the Giants team defensive numbers is that great, but in comparison to Detroit, they are stellar. A 0.84 PADE is considered above average in comparison to Detroit's -2.36, which BP considers to be horrendous, their word not mine. A positive UZR is above average, and while a negative DRS isn't good, the Giants defense is nowhere near as porous as the Tigers'. The advantage is overwhelmingly in favor of San Francisco. 

Other:

Base running, especially in a series where only 4 wins does the job, can be quite important. According to Fangraphs' base running statistic, the Giants had a 5.5 BsR while the Tigers ranked towards the bottom in the Majors with a -10 BsR. The Giants ranked in the top third in the Majors in base running, whereas the Tigers' mark puts them as the 5th worst base running team in MLB. Advantage here goes to the Giants.

Both of these managers are quite good. Both have won World Series, and have created job security for themselves by leading their team to winning seasons. I can't say there is a distinct advantage for either one, so I give this a push.

The Giants are far more tailored towards doing well at home than are the Tigers. The Giants don't hit home runs, and their pitchers don't strike people out. The Tigers rely on the top part of their order to produce most of their runs and need to get strikeouts in order to win. The Giants' style of play favors both parks in this series because both are larger than average. Advantage here goes to the Giants.

Finally, the Giants have home field advantage, which does not create as big a gap in Baseball as it does in other sports, but has been shown to have some affect. This obviously favors San Francisco.

Overall:

In the end, while three out of the four best players in the entire series reside on the American League side, Baseball is a team game, and the Giants have the better team. It will be close, as neither team has a great overall advantage, but the Giants perform better in more difficult situations and don't rely on specific aspects as much as the Tigers do. Have a well balanced team can have extreme value in a 7-game series.

Prediction: Giants in 6

Old School vs. New School

The latest raging debate in baseball concerns who should win the American League Most Valuable Player Award. The choices, Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout. One side claims that Miguel Cabrera must win the award. He won the Triple Crown for heaven's sake. No, I'm not talking about the horse racing Triple Crown, this is a baseball blog after all, and Miguel Cabrera isn't the name of the most recent jockey or thoroughbred coming out of the gates at Pimlico. This is a feat unaccomplished by thousands of Major Leagues over the last 45 years. Home runs, runs batted in, and batting average make up the three categories in which a player must at least tied for the lead in his respective league in order to claim the glorious Triple Crown. On the other side, we have Mike Trout. 20 years young, and already a phenom. Trout put together a Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle-type season. He posted a wRC+ of 175, wOBA of .422, a DRS of 21, and the highest WAR in the Major Leagues at 10.4. Wait, what in God's name are those hokey looking new-age statistics? WAR? Does that mean Trout is the best chance we have at beating ze Germans on the Western Front? I don't trust that garbage.

This is the debate:

For the last 30 or so years, Baseball has been evolving. Yes, we added the designated hitter, interleague play, and supposedly got rid of steroids, but I'm talking about a revolution. Bring out the guillotine and start chopping off heads. No, not a revolt, but a radical transformation. We didn't bring muskets and a declaration of war (I know the irony is killing me too), instead we brought our slide rules, statistical regression textbooks, and maybe a computer or two. Starting with the father, Bill James, and moving on to greats like John Dewan, Earnshaw Cook, and Tom Tango, the way we look at the game of baseball has changed. Change can often sound like a bad thing, especially for a game characterized as the National Pastime. But stories like the The Natural and tales of the great boys of summer, brought Baseball only so far. The key to moving baseball out of its archaic shell was science. Yes, pesky old science, that class in high school you so royally skipped except when you were set to dissect a frog or a guinea pig. Science crept into Baseball, just as it does with most aspects of life that have yet to be analyzed in depth.

This isn't a new concept. Originally, we as humans thought that the world was flat. In fact, some of the most brilliant minds of the ancient generations, not only assumed, but also proved the world flat. Eventually, around the 6th century BCE, with the help of the great Pythagorus, the ancient Greeks agreed that the world was not flat, but spherical. On the other hand, it took the Chinese until the 17th Century to change their minds, and even some during the time of the great explorer Christopher Columbus thought the earth was shaped like a discus.

Next came the idea of heliocentrism, a concept originally developed by the great Polish scientist and Catholic cleric, Nicolaus Copernicus. Copernican theory stated that the sun stood still while the other bodies in the universe, the earth included revolved around it. This idea was almost the complete opposite from religious doctrine. From the Bible, we can make out that the Earth was the center of the universe, but according to the Pole Copernicus, the sun was at the universe's center. Galileo, the great Italian scientist reproved all of Copernicus' theories concerning heliocentrism, and using his influence in the Catholic Church attempted to sway the Pope to allow him to publish this knowledge as fact. The Pope even asked Galileo to give arguments for both sides in his writings, but Galileo would not allow his name to be associated with false information. In the end, Galileo was sentenced to house arrest for the rest of his life. Not a great endorsement for the Church. 

Finally, science budged its way into the classical idea that God created the world in 7 days. Along came a guy named Charles Darwin who proved, scientifically, that humans evolved through natural selection, which had been going on for millions of years. Even to this day, many religious earthly citizens believe that the world was created in 7 days. Some believe a middle ground called creationism, but the concept of evolution is the only theory ever to be proven, similar to how heliocentrism and the earth being round were previously proven. Much like those other theories, great debates had to be waged in order for the general public to accept them as fact. In the case of evolution that debate was the Scopes Monkey Trial. The trial was between the modernists and the fundamentalists, and while the details of the case concerned a specific law called the Butler Act, the main argument to be made on both sides concerned which was the correct theory, Evolution or Biblical scripture. 

Now, let's jump to the Cabrera vs. Trout debate. Much like the debate between Galileo and Pope Urban, and the State of Tennessee vs. John Scopes, the decision of who wins the MVP won't change every baseball fans' mind, but it serves as a necessary part of the process towards progress. In the years since Billy Beane used the concept of on-base percentage to take pennies and turn them into a playoff team, sabermetrics has claimed many Baseball fans, but hasn't changed the minds of most. The mere fact that the "new-school" sabermetric point of view makes a significant appearance in the discussion for the MVP award gives it more validity than ever before. 

I've heard numerous older pundits and sports people talk about how ludicrous it is to consider anyone but Miguel Cabrera for the MVP award because he won the first Triple Crown in 45 years, and his team made the playoffs. When making this argument all of these sports guys, including Mike Wilbon, Tony Kornheiser, Mike Greenberg, and Mike Golic, always mention that they don't believe any new statistics like WAR means very much in comparison to winning the Triple Crown. This may sound like an ornery and entrenched perspective, but by even mentioning statistics like WAR on national television, these respected sports minds give the sabermetric idea more credibility. 

The winner of the old school vs. new school debate does not depend on the winner of the AL MVP award because no matter the outcome, sabermetric believers have already won just by participating in the discussion. Cabrera may win the award, and while he isn't a bad choice, he is not the right one. New statistics are not scary; they just allow us to analyze the inner workings of the greatest game on the planet. A planet, that we know is spherical, revolves around he sun, and that has supported ever-evolving life for millions of years. 

Murderer's Row

Fear comes from a lack confidence that results from impending circumstances out of your control. A person or group of people feel fear when an opponent has the opportunity, nay likelihood, of causing them harm, pain, or suffering. In baseball, match ups, constitute the crux of every part of the game. Do I bring in the lefty from the bullpen, or stick with the starter to face the pinch hitter? Wait, what if the other team pinch runs for the man on first, do I tell the pitcher to throw over, worry about a possible hit-and-run, or let the pitcher focus on the hitter? Baseball is a game of situations, match ups, one-on-one battles that incur difficult decisions influenced by dozens of factors. When fear clouds the judgment, we tend to make bad decisions, overlook objective data, and panic.

When putting together a team, General Managers want to compile an imposing lineup. How they decide what imposing means generally lies within their philosophy. Billy Beane's A's teams of the early 2000's, got on base from top to bottom. Some GM's look for hitters who all have power, or speed, or some other quality that makes it difficult for pitchers as they work there way through the batting order. If a pitchers sees a group of hitters who consistently get on base, it means throwing lots of pitches, and needing to be precise where the strike zone is concerned. If a pitcher sees a lineup full of home run hitters it invites the pitcher to be careful about leaving pitches in the middle of the strike zone, or to throw fewer fastballs early in the count.

Fielder and Cabrera

Every so often, one of the best teams in baseball can put out a lineup with 8 or 9, depending on the league, hitters that all strike fear in some way in the opposing pitcher. More often, pecuniary constraints force GMs to concentrate some fear-inspiring hitter in the middle or towards the top of the team's batting order. For example, Dave Dombrowski, the Detroit Tigers GM, signed Prince Fielder this past offseason to compliment his other great hitter Miguel Cabrera in the middle of the Tigers order. Those two have combined for an 11.6 fWAR, 244 runs batted in, 73 home runs, and 190 runs scored. These two embody the term run producers. Nonetheless, they make up only 2/9 of the Tigers daily lineup.

While 3/9 does not constitute that much more than 2/9, but it is 1/3 of a team's lineup. So, I took a look at who has the best set of three-in-a-row hitters in the Major Leagues. 6 teams stuck out more than the others.

Atlanta Braves: I begin with Atlanta, for no other reason than they are only one of two teams on this list to have their threesome include the leadoff hitter. Michael Bourn, Martin Prado, and Jason Heyward have individually put together outstanding seasons. They have the highest combined fWAR of any of the trios I have yet to mention at 18.7. The three bat 1-2-3 in the lineup, combining for 508 hits and 265 runs scored. These three get on base, OBP's of .335 or higher, steal bases, 76 combined steals, and make up 38% of the runs scored for the entire Braves team this season.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Angels made big splashes in the offseason signing big fish free-agent Albert Pujols, as well as lefty C.J. Wilson. On the other hand, two of the three boppers in their lineup came from elsewhere. Mike Trout, the should be AL MVP, does his damage from the leadoff position, while Torri Hunter, who has spent half of his career in Anaheim, sits for the most part in the second spot. Pujols, who has had a somewhat lesser year in comparison to his MVP-like seasons in St. Louis, has still put up good enough numbers to make this threesome quite formidable. They combined for 18.5 fWAR, 75 home runs, 286 runs scored, and 499 hits. They average a .366 on base percentage, .507 slugging percentage, and all three had at least a 126 wRC+. Much of the production is weighted towards Trout, but Pujols and Hunter make it very difficult for opposing pitchers to find comfort after dealing with Trout. It is obvious that Trout gets on base, and Hunter and Pujols knock him in, as the two have 120 extra-base hits so far this season.

Washington Nationals: The Nationals represent one of the few teams that can post a lineup card, minus the pitcher, full of very good hitters. Especially since Jayson Werth returned to the lineup, this group of batters has proven a pitcher's nightmare. On the other hand, for our purposes in this discussion, let's focus on three specific Nats. Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, and Adam LaRoche. These three wouldn't strike fear just by name, but they do a great job of wearing out opposing pitchers. They do so to the tune of a 12.6 combined fWAR, but more importantly, 454 hits, 77 home runs, and at least a .338 OBP from each. Harper has the 3rd highest OPS and 3rd most extra base hits among National League center fielders this season. Most importantly, all three hitters make the opposing pitchers throw more pitches. The three have an average pitches seen per plate appearance of 3.96, which ranks in the top quarter of the National League.

Aaron Hill

Arizona Diamondbacks: This trio of hitters surprised me more than any other on the list. The Diamondbacks are not in playoff contention, nor do they have any MVP candidates, but Aaron Hill, Justin Upton, and Miguel Montero have proven to be dangerous. Much of the three's success is supplied from Hill and Montero, who are both having great seasons. On the other hand, while Justin Upton hasn't lived up to his 2011 campaign, he remains dangerous due to his combination of power, speed, and ability to hit to the opposite field. These three combined to score 260 runs, and compiled 466 hits on their way to a combined fWAR of 13.6. This threesome had a higher average wOBA than the Braves best three hitters (according to WAR the best three in a row hitters on the list), doing so despite an fWAR difference of 4.9. The category these three lack that stops them from being one of the top 2 trios is their power. With only 56 combined home runs and only one player's ISO above .200, Aaron Hill, it seems clear that had Justin Upton played up to his potential this might have been the three best hitters in a row in the entire league.

St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals have been one of the highest ranked offenses in the Major Leagues all season, so it is only fitting that they appear on this list. Matt Holliday, Yadier Molina, and Allen Craig have been huge for the Cardinals. Add in Carlos Beltran and David Freese on either end and you have a string of imposing hitters without any relief. Holliday, Molina, and Craig combined for a 15.0 fWAR and all three have at least a 6.50 RC/27 or higher, putting them all in the top 15 in the NL. These three are all right-handed, all have power, and 172 extra base hits. If we lop off Craig and add in Carlos Beltran, the trio of Beltran, Holliday, and Molina does a great job at getting on base with wOBAs of .348 or above, and an average walk percentage of 9.73%. Whether you use Beltran or Craig (both with 3.3 fWAR) the Cardinals provide a great combination of efficiency and power at the plate.

Ramirez and Hart

Milwaukee Brewers: This is the trio that sparked my interest in this piece. No trio makes pitchers as miserable as Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez, and Corey Hart. These three define murderer's row. A 17.7 combined fWAR does not do them justice for their offensive output. 507 combined hits, 98 home runs, 288 runs scored, and an average wRC+ of 146 put them in high esteem. When Braun, Ramirez, and Hart come to the plate, they use their best features, their muscles. Each brings to the plate an ISO of .239 or higher, and slugging percentages of .513 or higher. Braun carries a lot of the load here, but Ramirez and Hart aren't far behind.

It takes an entire team to win a ball game, but offensively, just a few players can often carry the load. If three hitters each have plate appearances, and they do so all in a row, it changes the way a pitcher has to prepare, and can often lead to compromising situations for managers. Baseball-Reference denotes low-leverage, medium-leverage, and high-leverage situations, and when three hitters like Trout, Hunter, and Pujols, or Braun, Ramirez, and Hart step to the plate, they will almost always provide more stress and pressure for a pitcher. Anything that can disrupt, even the best pitchers gives the hitting side, which is always at a disadvantage, more of a chance to succeed.

One important thing to note is that of the trios on this list with the highest combined WARs, neither the Angels nor the Brewers will likely be heading to October. What is most impressive about all of this, is that the Tigers' Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, despite not having a third player to back them up, have put together some of the best numbers for two hitters in a row in the Majors. These two mashers make it extremely difficult for opposing pitchers, especially since one is left-handed and other is a righty, and they have Austin Jackson at the top of the lineup, getting on base. While three fearsome hitter in a row definitely bests two, Prince and Miggy have made the best of their situation, and have seriously helped a defensively inept squad like the Tigers win the AL Central and make the playoffs.

Triple Threat or the Flying Fish

Defining Value:
Let's get something straight. Especially in recent years there has been a lot of debate in the Baseball community over the Most Valuable Player Award. I have previously written about the Cy Young Award, given to the best pitcher, which is assumed to mean the pitcher with the best statistics, no matter which stats one utilizes.  The two sides of the argument surrounding the MVP award are as follows.  One side claims that the MVP award should go to the player who has been the most valuable to his team.  The other side claims that the award should go to the best overall player because by being the best it follows that the player would be the most valuable.

Fortunately, most of the people who argue about this do not have a vote. The Baseball Writers Association of America votes on the winner of each leagues Most Valuable Player. Here are some recent winners of the award:

	NL	AL
2008	Albert Pujols	Dustin Pedroia
2009	Albert Pujols	Joe Mauer
2010	Joey Votto	Josh Hamilton
2011	Ryan Braun	Justin Verlander

Miguel Cabrera

Let's turn to 2012. While the National League is interesting, it deserves its own article, thus, moving on to the American League.  In the AL, the race for the MVP has come down to 2 players in particular, Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers and Mike Trout of the Angels. In all honesty, no one should forget about Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano, but for the purposes of this article he is forgotten, POOF!  For all intents and purposes, until recently the race for the AL MVP was similar to the tortoise and the hare. One player was ahead of everyone, with another player or two far behind, but not completely forgotten. Mike Trout is the hare, and Cabrera the tortoise. In fact, as you will find out later, comparing the Angels outfielder to a hare is not unreasonable.  

On August 31st, Miguel Cabrera had an OPS (on base% + Slugging %) of .984. As of September 19th, he has an OPS of 1.008. In order to raise his OPS those 24 points, he needed to have a better month in September than he had had in any month in 2012 that preceding it. So far this month, Cabrera's OPS is 1.223. By all standards, Cabrera is having an outstanding month, without which he would probably not be a member of the conversation concerning the AL MVP. In fact, due to Cabrera's 2 home runs last night against the Oakland A's, he finds himself only 2 home runs away from the American League lead. This piece of information is important because he already leads the league in batting average and runs-batted-in. If one player leads their respective league in those three categories, they are said to have won the Triple Crown, an achievement last accomplished by Carl "Yaz" Yastrzemski of the Boston Red Sox in 1967. Was Cabrera to win the Triple Crown, it would be difficult for some not to consider him the de-facto MVP.   

Mike Trout

I consider a team's success to be of some importance when determining an MVP recipient. For a player's stats to contain the utmost value, his team must reap the benefits. The Tigers find themselves 3 games back of the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central, not an insurmountable disparity. In fact, one major reason for the Tigers' small distance from 1st place is the play of their third baseman, Miguel Cabrera. In fact, Cabrera's fWAR (batting, not pitching) makes up about 31% of the entire Tigers' fWAR. Nonetheless, the Angels have won more games than the Tigers have this season, even though they find themselves 6.5 games out of first in the AL West. According to www.coolstandings.com, the Angels still have a better chance at 28.6% of making the playoffs than the Tigers, at 20.8%, do.  

The Comparison:

When comparing two players, we must compare them on a number of levels. Baseball is not merely an offensive game, it involves base-running, defense, intuition, etc... Fortunately, modern analytic tools allow fans, pundits, players, managers, and yes, even writers to evaluate a player in all of these categories. 

Let's first look at both players' hitting statistics.

	Trout	Cabrera
Games Played	125	146
Hitting
wOBA	0.420	0.420
OPS	0.954	1.008
BABIP	0.380	0.335
Hits	166	189
wRC+	174	169
Runs	118	110
BB%	9.9%	9.4%
K%	21%	13.8%
BB+HBP	65	77
Strike Outs	121	88

The first thing that might pop out to you is that Trout has played in 21 fewer games than Cabrera. This gap is due the fact that the Angels did not bring Trout up from the minors until April 28th, almost a full month after the season began. Nonetheless, Trout's statistics compare favorably to Cabrera's. Both players excel in getting on base, as is seen by their identical weighted on-base averages (for a full explanation of wOBA see this link: wOBA explained). Trout draws walks at a higher rate than Cabrera, and hits for a higher average on balls he puts in play, despite having a higher strikeout percentage. Each player has compiled a number of hits, but when you look at hits per game, Trout has a distinct advantage at 1.3 hits/game compared to Cabrera's 0.8 hits/game. Trout also creates more runs overall than does Cabrera, and since no team can win without scoring runs, that statistic, wRC+, is not to be taken lightly (for an explanation of wRC+ see this link: wRC+ explained. Cabrera's lone shining star is that he strikes out far less than does Trout. This is an admirable quality, and one that often comes with years of experience, something Cabrera has in spades over the 20-year-old Trout. (Just to note, in Cabrera's first two MLB seasons at the ages of 20 and 21, his K% were 21.3% and 24.6% respectively.) While not striking out is a good thing, it can mean that the player grounds into more double plays. Cabrera has bounced into 28 double plays this year, or once every 5 games, while Trout has grounded into only only 7 double plays, or 17 games. 

Next let's look at power hitting statistics. Producing a run combines getting on base with the ability to knock in a run as well. That's why OPS is such a nice statistic. Here are some power statistics to look at: 

	Trout	Cabrera
Games Played	125	146
Power
Home Runs	27	40
RBIs	77	129
ISO	0.231	0.279
SLG	0.558	0.612
HR/FB	21.4%	23.3%

As you can see, Cabrera leads in most of the power hitting statistics. He has more home runs, runs-batted-in, a higher isolated power (slugging % - batting average), a higher slugging percentage, and hits more home runs for every fly ball he hits. Interestingly, according to ESPN's home run tracker, Miguel Cabrera leads the major leagues in lucky home runs. A lucky home run is described as a homer that would not have cleared the fence in the park it was hit on a calm 70-degree day. Trout has had 0 lucky home runs. Nonetheless, we can easily see that Cabrera is the better power hitter, albeit, not by that much. On the other hand, Mike Trout bats lead-off and Cabrera bats 3rd. Trout's job as the 1-hitter is to get on base so that the power hitters in the 3-hole, cleanup spot, and 5-hole can knock him in, thus scoring a run. So, Cabrera's job is to be a power hitter while Trout's is not. Trout still compares closely to Cabrera in every power hitting category other than home runs and RBIs, showing just how valuable he truly is. 

Next, let's look at speed:

	Trout	Cabrera
Games Played	125	146
Speed
SB	46	4
BsR	6.1	-2.9

 This is not a fair comparison. Miguel Cabrera is 29 years old, 6 foot 4 inches tall and weighs in at a liberal 240 lbs. Trout is 20 years old, 6 foot, and 200 lbs. Also, Cabrera has never been fast, thus no manager in his right mind would ever ask him to steal a base. On the other hand, even slow players can be smart base runners. BsR is a statistic factored into fangraphs.com's version of WAR that attempts to calculate the contribution of a players' base running abilities. As you can see, Trout leads the way in both stolen bases, no surprise there, and more importantly, in base running. A player who gets on base, but gets thrown out due to poor base running earns his team more outs and thus costs his team runs. Advantage here clearly goes to Trout.

So far all of the metrics used to determine Trout and Cabrera's value has been from an offensive perspective. Although defense is not as important for a player, other than pitchers, than is offense, it still counts. Here are some defensive numbers: 

	Trout	Cabrera
Games Played	125	146
Fielding
UZR/150	14.9	-12
DRS	25	-5
FRAA	-3	4.5

 UZR or ultimate zone rating is the defensive metric used by www.fangraphs.com when determining a player's defensive rating. The stat centers on a players range, but incorporates other factors as well. I use UZR/150 because it allows us to compare two players who have played a different amount of games, like Trout and Cabrera. The statistic takes into account difference in position difficulty. According to his play this season, Cabrera would cost his team 12 runs at third base while Trout would save his team almost 15 runs playing a mix of the three outfield positions. This illustrates another point. Trout can play all three outfield positions as well as the DH spot, but Cabrera has played almost the entire season at third base. Miguel can play at 1st; a less defensively valued position, but has only filled in there twice in 2012. The ability to play multiple positions and do so incredibly well, gives Trout a serious edge defensively. If you want to know more about each statistic listed above, click on it to be directed to an explanation.

The AL MVP Award

Finally, while we have looked at numerous individual statistics covering a variety of categories, most analysts look at already created value measuring statistics that encompass all facets of the game. "Wins above replacement" is the commonly used metric for measuring a player's overall value. Each major website calculates it a little differently, usually depending on the fielding metric that site likes to use. 

	Trout	Cabrera
Games Played	125	146
Value
fWAR	9.4	6.6
rWAR	10.3	6.3
WARP	8.0	5.6
Salary	$480,000	$21,000,000
Value Salary	$42.1 Mil	$29.8 Mil

 No matter how you look at the numbers, every form of WAR shows that Trout is the more valuable player to his team. In fact, Fangraphs even computes a players WAR into the amount of money they would be worth. Trout's season is worth $12.3 million more than Cabrera's. I only showed how much money they are making this year to underscore the fact that both players are easily out performing their 2012 salaries.  

So, in the end, the comparison leads me to conclude that Mike Trout is not only the better overall player, but the more valuable player. His team has won more games this season, and he has been a bigger part of that. His fWAR/win is .11 while Cabrera's is .08. Trout adds more every game than Cabrera, and has statistically helped his team win more games than Cabrera. Oh, Cabrera may be on the precipice of history, but just because no player has won the Triple Crown in 44 years, does not automatically make him the most valuable player. In fact, if I were to do a comparison between Cabrera and Robinson Cano (remember him, we made him disappear earlier in the article,) the two players would not be very far apart. As far as the Triple Crown goes, Ted Williams won the Triple Crown twice, in 1942 and 1947. Neither year did he win the MVP. Even more so, in 1934 Lou Gehrig won the AL Triple Crown and came in 5th in the MVP voting. Even in the 30's and 40's voters had more on their minds when determining the MVP than home runs, batting average, and runs-batted-in. No matter what happens this season, Mike Trout deserves to become only the third player all time to win both the rookie-of-the-year award and he MVP in the same season (Ichiro Suzuki and Fred Lynn being the others).