Winter Meetings: Day 4

Ahhhh, the end of the week. Time to kick back, relax, maybe knock back a few. Well, maybe for most people. Those who remain in Nashville, Tennessee for Baseball's Winter Meetings see Thursday and Friday of this week as crunch time. Remember though, last year we were a bit spoiled. Huge names moved at last year's winter meetings, but this year the opposite happened. Josh Hamilton, still a free agent. Zack Greinke, still a free agent. Michael Bourn, still a free agent. Nonetheless, every day multiple moves were made, teams satisfied, players happy, and fans left shaking their heads. Let's check in on day 4 and see what went down.

"Big" Joe Blanton

Los Angeles Angels sign Joe Blanton to 2-year $15 million contract: This deal came in late last night. The immediate reaction on Twitter was that this deal was stupid, ineffective, and most likely an overpay. Blanton is what we in the business call an innings eater. He is effectively league average, but isn't injury prone, and doesn't implode to the point at which he has to be rushed off the field lest an arrant piece of flying fruit from an angry fan hits him in the face. Blanton throws strikes, plays to contact, and gets sneaky strikeouts with pitches like tailing fastballs and circle change ups. Given Blanton's makeup, there is one particular statistic to watch. That is BB/9. When Blanton isn't walking hitters, but instead pounding the strike zone, he provides his team much more value. Sure, he'll probably give up some more home runs, but a solo home run here or there isn't a bad thing when compared to 3-run home runs due to back-to-back walks. Blanton's title is back of the rotation starter, and with Jared Weaver and C.J. Wilson at the top of the Halos staff, that's all Jerry Dipoto is looking for from Big Joe. $7.5 million per season is a little steep, so I can't say the Angels did a sneaky-good job here, but if Blanton can put up better numbers than either Dan Haren or Ervin Santana, this deal will look a lot better 10 months from now.
My Grade: B (No, not B for Blanton, but B for average, which is the exact title this signing entails)

Cubs sign Nate Schierholtz to 1-year 2.25 million contract: I won't spend much time on this other than to say that my gut is telling me that Nate Schieholtz won't be a Cub come August, 2013. Nate was non-tendered by the Phillies after they received him in the Hunter Pence Deal. The Phillies need outfielders and didn't resign him, but did so to the chagrin of the Cubs. According to both PECOTA and Bill James' projections, Schierholtz is in line for a bounce-back season in which he'll probably provide league average offense form the outfield. From a fielding point of view, Schierholtz's range seems to be declining a bit in addition to his ability to make plays that average outfielders can't make. So, Wrigley Field could make Schierholtz look better than he is. If so, he will be moved at the trade deadline for some prospect that Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer most likely already have in mind.
My Grade: B+ (Can only be good for the Cubs, and for Schierholtz it didn't matter where he signed, he needs to put up good numbers to be coveted at all next offseason)

Ben Revere

Twins trade outfielder Ben Revere to the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for RHP Vance Worley and RHP Trevor May: This was the big move of the day. As a Phillies fan, expect me to spend some time analyzing this deal. Okay, so first from the Phillies side. Ruben Amaro has finally made a deal that makes logical sense. Ben Revere is a 24-year-old center fielder who is under team control through 2017. Given the fact that the Phillies current infield has an average age of 32.5 years old, adding a 24-year old isn't a bad idea. Next, take a look at these numbers:

	2011	2012
wRC+	71	88
wOBA	0.278	0.300
fWAR	2.0	3.4

Okay, something's wrong here. Revere has been worth an average of 2.7 wins over the last two years, but his run creation is below average in addition to subpar overall offensive productions. The reason for these odd numbers is that Revere does his work with his legs. Here's his "legs" numbers: 

	2011	2012
UZR	10.0	16.4
FRAA	-2.0	1.9
DRS	-3	8
SB	34	40
UBR	3.5	3.6
fWAR	2.0	3.4

Essentially, Revere is a defensive beast in center field, covering incredible amounts of ground, with average arm. In addition, when Revere reaches base he is a distinct threat to steal second, and even third. Revere's UBR shows that he runs the bases with solid aptitude and efficiency, something that fellow Phillies Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins have been doing for years. Revere gets on base at just above the league average (.333 in 2012), bunts for hits (34.6% BUH%), and makes contact at the plate (92.2% contact %). Essentially, Revere does everything you would want from a young leadoff hitter aside from his BB%. All Revere needs to do to become Michael Bourn at age 24 is to see some more pitches (3.61 pitches seen per plate appearance in 2012, which was 16 worst in the American League), and walk a bit more (5.2 BB% in 2012 compared to a league average 8.0% BB%). Often times though, plate discipline comes with maturity, and at 24 years old, we can expect Revere to mature a bit. From the Twins point of view, they have now traded 2 outfielders without power for 3 pitchers. Worley is a typical #4 starter, and will play well at Target Field, since he pitches to contact and the park in Minnesota is quite vast. Trevor May was considered the Phillies top-pitching prospect going into 2012, but the Phillies have a number of prospects similar to May, thus making Trevor expendable. The Phillies retain Brody Colvin, Jonathan Pettibone, and especially Jessie Biddle, and get an MLB ready, defensive stud in center field in return. Anyone in Philadelphia who is sad to see May go needs to look at themselves in the mirror because while May might end up as a #3 starter, the Phillies have more of those guys.

My Grade: A (The Phillies get exactly what they want, the Twins get a substantial return, it is a win-win)

Koji Uehara

Red Sox sign Koji Uehara to a 1-year $4.25 million contract: Koji Uehara spent the last two seasons in Baltimore and Texas, doing a good job out of the pen. Koji has sported an average of 1.7 wins per season over the last 4 seasons, which is fairly substantial for a relief pitcher given the minute number of innings relievers throw in comparison to starters. Uehara dominates right-handed batters, and fairs incredibly well against lefties due to his split-fingered change up. Here are Uehara's splits from last season: 

	FIP	BB/9	K/9	GB/FB
vs. LH	3.09	0.47	9.95	0.73
vs. RH	1.62	1.06	11.65	0.55

These numbers show that the Japanese reliever dominates righties by striking them out, and gets lefties out by playing to contact, a combination destined to produce good results out of the pen. I saw Uehara as one of the best relievers on the market, and based on this contract, if Koji puts up the same numbers in 2013 as he put up in 2012, the Red Sox will have gotten a solid deal.

My Grade: A- (Good deal for both teams, only issue is that teams who are more likely to be in playoff contention missed out on Uehara. If the Red Sox don't project to make the playoffs by the trade deadline, look for Ben Cherington to trade Uehara to a team in need.)

Braves resign OF Reed Johnson to a 1-year contract, financials unknown: Without the dollar amount given, the analysis cannot be as accurate, but I'll give it a whirl. Reed Johnson is the perfect 4th outfielder. He plays hard, is great in the clubhouse, and has been worth an average of ~ 1.1 wins per season throughout his 11 year career. The Braves have 2/3 of their outfield settled, and Johnson makes a great signing to platoon at that third third of the outfield. Johnson was originally acquired by the Braves via the Chicago Cubs along with Paul Maholm at the 2012 trade deadline, and the Braves saw enough to want to keep Johnson around. Johnson is the older form of Nate Schierholtz, and if the Braves have given him a similar contract, they are probably getting a good deal. The most interesting thing about Johnson is that, according to pitch f/x data, he doesn't have a problem hitting any pitch in the strike zone at an average rate. Oftentimes, batters are susceptible to pitches in certain parts of the plate, but Johnson seems to hit pitches all over the strike zone at the same rate (about 57%). This makes for a good pinch-hitter.

My Grade: B (Good for both sides, but not great.)

So, day 4 of the Winter Meetings didn't prove to be exciting, or even as exciting as the first three days. The Phillies/Twins trade proved to be the most interesting move of the day, and in all honesty, it wasn't mind blowing. The surprising part of that deal was Ruben Amaro's willingness to make a sensible move instead of a flashy move, something that should make Phillies fans happy, hopeful, but still a bit skeptical. Hamilton, Greinke, and Michael Bourn remain free agents, but there is a lot of offseason to go before pitchers and catchers report. Once Zack Greinke signs, the other pitchers on the market like Ryan Dempster, Anibal Sanchez, Kyle Lohse, and Shaun Marcum should sign quickly, but until Zack decides, those pitcher will most likely remain unemployed. 

The winter meetings this year were not filled with the huge moves of the past, which were replaced with ridiculous and constant rumors. Will Justin Upton be traded? My guess is yes, but never attempt to predict what Kevin Towers will do, he's proven to be unpredictable in the past. The winners of the winter meetings have to be the Boston Red Sox who have signed multiple players that could all be valuable in the next 2-3 years, which isn't an unreasonable timetable for the Sox to become relevant once again. Overall, it's been a fun 4 days, the hope is that the next 2 months will prove just as fascinating.

Winter Meetings: Day 3

Days 1 and 2 of Baseball's Winter Meetings in Nashville, Tennessee saw a number of players find new homes. Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino joined the Red Sox, James Loney became a Ray, Dan Haren switched coasts going from LA to D.C., and Joakim Soria moved south from Kansas City to the Texas Rangers. In addition, Angel Pagan resigned with the San Francisco Giants, solidifying the Giant's outfield. As you have already realized the biggest names aren't on this list. No Josh Hamilton, Zack Greinke, or Michael Bourn. Well, eventually those names will sign, but for now, let's go over who made a deal since yesterday evening.

Marco Scutaro

Giants sign Marco Scutaro to a 3-year $20 million contract: This marks the third player the Giants have resigned with Jeremy Affeldt and Angel Pagan being the first two. The Giants recently won the World Series, and given the state of their starting pitching, the team knows that the next 2-3 seasons mark their best chance to win again. Given that theory, it seems logical for the team to resign the players that helped them win in 2012 to contracts that cover no more than the next 4 years. Scutaro and Pagan represent the top of the Giants lineup, the players who get on base for MVP Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, and Hunter Pence to knock in. Scutaro has averaged 2.7 wins according to Baseball Prospectus over the last 6 seasons, and according to BP's forecasting system PECOTA, he should be worth ~ 2 wins over the next 2 years, with a drop off in the third year. This contract seems to be as much about getting value from Scutaro as it is paying him for helping the franchise win it's second World Series since moving to the bay. Scutaro was a tale of two players last season, posting a 75 wRC+ with Colorado, but 137 wRC+ with the Giants. Scutaro posted the highest OPS and wOBA of his career while with the Giants, but that also the highest BABIP of his career. There's a fairly good chance Scutaro's performance in San Fran last season was a mix of his numbers returning to their usual ways, combined with some extra luck. Overall, this contract is deserved, even though some sabermetricians might tell you it is a bit of an overpay (by $4-5 million). Scutaro became a fan favorite quickly in San Fran, and with the coming influx of about $25 million due to a TV deal, this deal makes plenty of sense.
My Grade: B+ (above average signing, but neither side pulled off a steal)

Rockies trade Alex White and Alex Gillingham to the Houston Astros in exchange for pitcher Wilton Lopez: This deal came a bit out of the blue. The Rockies had been rumored to be looking for bullpen pitchers (possibly to trade at the deadline seeing as the Rockies aren't winning anything in 2013), and this is exactly the type of pitcher who could garner something useful at the trade deadline. White and Gillingham are both young pitchers, and given the Astros need to stockpile young arms, this deal definitely makes sense for Houston. Lopez has been very good recently, putting up great GB%. When he isn't throwing his hard sinker for ground balls, Lopez's pitches almost always hit the strike zone. If not for arm injury problems, Lopez would be considered a top bullpen arm, and more high-profile teams would covet him.
My Grade: C (This one doesn't make much sense unless the Rockies can flip Lopez at the trade deadline for better prospects than White and Gillingham)

Rays acquire Yunel Escobar from the Marlins in exchange for minor leaguer Derek Deitrich: The Rays use trades far more often than free agency to acquire players, so a trade involving the Rays at the Winter Meetings is not unwarranted. Shortstop Yunel Escobar began the offseason as part of the Toronto Blue Jays before being traded as part of the mega-deal to the Miami Marlins, and now he's moved across Florida to Tampa Bay. The Rays had numerous needs to fill this offseason, and Escobar is one piece in that yet unfinished puzzle. While Ben Zobrist plays a very good shortstop, the Rays would rather move him between 2nd base and the outfield, so trading for a shortstop was a more logical move than going after an outfielder. On the field, Escobar shouldn't disappoint. Yunel has averaged 3.1 wins according to Fangraphs throughout his 6-year career. He played above average defense, runs the bases fairly well, and gets on base (.353 career OBP). What makes Escobar valuable is the combination of his high OBP, high contact percentage (career-85.5% avg-81.0%), and low 2012 BABIP. His BABIP should regress toward .300, and if we combine that with his ability to make contact, Escobar's wOBA should return to its previous levels (2012-.284 career-.331). Escobar's immaturity as a person might cause some issues, but the Rays have never shied away from talented players with character issues. Deitrich is a 2nd base prospect with solid upside. According to scouting reports and MiLB numbers, Deitrich hits for average, but lacks the pop that many thought he possessed in the past. A poor man's Chase Utley isn't out of his future, and given the Marlins lack of MLB ready players, he may get to play in the majors very soon.
My Grade: A- (Rays get exactly what they need, albeit with character flaws, while the Marlins continue to stock pile young players)

Jeff Keppinger

White Sox sign Jeff Keppinger to a 3-year $12 million contract: Ah, Jeff Keppinger. Keppinger has been as volatile of a player as there is in Major League Baseball. He plays well one year, and abysmal the next. Some of that is probably due to his high ridiculously high contact rate (career- 92.8%), ability to hit left-handed pitching far better than right-handed pitching (.396 wOBA off of lefties in 2012, .333 off of righties), and complete lack of power. Keppinger provides a lot of value in very specific areas, making him a a hot commodity. Numerous teams needed third basemen this offseason, and while Keppinger was seen as a lesser option in comparison to Kevin Youkilis, he's better than a lot of the other options. If Keppinger puts up 1 win per season he'll make the White Sox look good, a distinct possibility even given a probable regression in his statistics going into 2013. According to PECOTA the $12 million Kep will receive over the next three seasons is just about right. Moreover, this move allows the White Sox to get more creative, especially in the trade market. General Managers have checklists just like everyone else, and filling the hole at 3rd base was atop Chisox GM Rick Hahn's list this offseason. Keppinger obviously wanted the security of a 3-year deal more than a higher average annual salary because I think he could have found a 2-year contract for $12 million if he wanted.
My Grade: B+ (A- for the White Sox and B for Keppinger)

Orioles resign Nate McLouth to a 1-year $2 million contract: While McLouth was receiving attention from a number of teams; he decided to resign with the team that took a chance on him last season. Loyalty can be beneficial or stupid, but in this case it should prove productive. The Orioles spent the equivalent of pennies on McLouth and they won't ask him to do more than hit off of right-handed pitching, something he does fairly well, and play solid defense either corner outfield position. Here are McLouth's splits:

	vs. LHP	vs. RHP
wRC+	63	99
wOBA	0.267	0.318
ISO	0.091	0.155

Unfortunately, according to UZR and FRAA, McLouth isn't a good defender, but DRS has him as a league average defender, something the Orioles can deal with in a platoon player. One thing to note, McLouth did hit well in high leverage situations last season, posting a 0.34 clutch. Finally, as an Orioles fan friend of mine said in reaction to this deal, "Good fit, club presence, inexpensive contract, played GREAT for us down the stretch. What's not to like?"

My Grade: C+ (O's spend little, but aren't getting much. McLouth doesn't have to fight for a job and can prove himself)

Eric Chavez

Diamondbacks sign catcher Wil Nieves to 1-year $500K contract and sign 3B Eric Chavez to 1-year $3 million contract: One of these moves was expected while the other wasn't. Don't worry, I won't keep you guessing. Nieves was Miguel Montero's backup last year, and for the equivalent of 0.1 wins, a catcher familier with the Dbacks staff returns for 2013. Eric Chavez signing with the Diamondbacks caught me by surprise. The Diamondbacks traded for Chris Johnson in 2012, but after seeing him play for 2 months discovered that Johnson cannot hit right-handed pitching. Herein lies the problem because Johnson actually hit far better against righties than lefties. 

	vs. LHP	vs. RHP
wRC+	77	120
wOBA	0.29	0.352
ISO	0.129	0.186

These numbers are very odd for a right-handed hitter, making this move a complete head scratcher. Chavez barely took swings against anyone but a right-handed pitcher last season causing his splits to be completely ridiculous. The only thing Chavez does that Johnson doesn't is play good defense. This leads me to believe that when ground ball pitchers like Wade Miley start for the Dbacks you will see Chavez at the hot corner, but when other pitchers take the hill, we can expect to see Johnson playing third base. I can't tell which is more odd, Chris Johnson's splits or the fact that the Dbacks signed Eric Chavez just for his defense. You decide.

My Grade: D (If someone has a better explanation than mine as to why the Dbacks made this move, I'd love to hear it)

Mariners sign Jason Bay to a 1-year contract worth under $1 million: What do Jason Bay, Michael Vick, and Troy Aikman all have in common. All three have had concussion issues. The difference between Bay and the other two athletes mentioned is that he plays Baseball, not Football. Bay is still the only Pirate to ever win the rookie of the year award, and he played really well for the Red Sox replacing Manny Ramirez, but as a Met Jason Bay failed miserably. The Mets still owe Bay $21 million after releasing him, so money wasn't an issue in signing a contract from the Bay's point of view. The Mariners don't need Bay, but if he somehow makes a comeback, there might be a lot of teams looking to acquire him at the trade deadline. If he has concussion issues, and or doesn't play well, the Mariners can take solace in the fact that they aren't the team paying him millions of dollars. 

My Grade: C (Bay has a chance to prove he can still play, and both he and the Mariners hope he does)

The St. Louis Cardinals sign Randy Choate to a 3-year $7.5 million contract: Prior to this signing, reliever Brandon League received a 3-year $21 million contract and Joakim Soria signed a 2-year $8 million contract. So, why did Randy Choate get League-like years and Soria-like money? Well, first of all, Choate is a lefty specialist, so $7.5 million is actually a nice haul. The Cardinals rarely make bad signings, even if not all the players the sign turn out to be stars, so let's give them the benefit of the doubt. Also, Choate is actually great at his job. Against left-handed batters, Choate put up a 25.9 K%, 7.8 BB%, 2.72 FIP, and a .154 batting average against. Those are great numbers, but due to his inability to get righties out, his WAR numbers aren't great. Choate throws from a sidearm-like angle, making it very difficult for lefties to pick up his pitches, which can be extremely valuable, especially in high leverage situations (0.4 clutch in 2012). 

My Grade: B+ ($2.5 million a year means that the Cardinals aren't paying much here, so kudos to them. As for Choate, he gets the unusual multi-year contract for a lefty specialist.)

Sean Burnett

Angels sign Sean Burnett to a 2-year for < $9.5 million: While we aren't clear on exactly how much money is involved in this deal, it looks to be just under $9.5 million. Burnett is what the Angels were looking for to solidify their bullpen. Burnett throws from an awkward angle from the left side, making him difficult on left-handed hitters, but unlike lefty specialists like Randy Choate, Burnett can pitch to righties without imploding. In the last 3 seasons, Burnett has compiled 2.1 wins according to Fangraphs, which isn't bad for a relief pitcher. When you look at it more carefully, you see two great seasons and one subpar one. That volatility probably took Burnett out as a candidate for a 3-year deal like the ones given to Brandon League, Jeremy Affeldt, and Randy Choate, but his overall production out of the pen allowed Burnett to seek ~ $4.5 million per season. For the Angels, this deal looks great. After trading Jorden Walden, Jerry Dipoto went out and signed Ryan Madson and now Sean Burnett. For a GM who doesn't want to designate anyone as a closer, both of these signings make sense. While you're going to hear that Madson is the Angels closer, you will probably see 4 different pitchers close games for the Halos in 2013, and one of them will be Burnett. The Nationals have to hate to so Burnett go, but the Angels were willing to give him more than $4 million per season, and Burnett wasn't stupid enough to turn that down. 

My Grade: A (Everything about this looks great, except for the possibility that Burnett regresses in 2013, but I'm sure that was something the Angels considered.)

This was a day of minor signings. Lots of 1-year deals, minor trades, and even more rumors. Rumors gaining significant steam include a possible multi-team trade involving Justin Upton, Zack Greinke getting the most lucrative contract ever signed by a pitcher to date, and that Jason Grilli is very close to a new deal. The Sean Burnett signing and Yunel Escobar trades are objectively the best moves made so far on day 3 of the Winter Meetings, but with 5+ hours remaining on this Wednesday, so much more could still happen. 

Winter Meetings: Day 2

Baseball's Winter Meetings in Nashville, Tennessee got off to a quick start yesterday with a number of free agent signings including Mike Napoli, Joakim Soria, Angel Pagan, and James Loney. No contract was signed that totaled more than $40 million, but each contract signing improved the club involved, and made the players involved all rich men with secure jobs, something the average American cannot claim. So, what happend in day 2?

Dan Haren

Washington Nationals sign Dan Haren to 1-year $13 million contract: The Nationals are always making headlines with their pitching. Most recently, the club traded young fireballer Alex Meyer to the Twins in exchange for center fielder Denard Span. That move opened up a lot of moves for the Nats involving position players, but while tons of rumors have been flying concerning Adam LaRoche and Michael Morse, it was the Nats rotation that got a boost on day 2. Haren, most recently rumored to have been traded from the Angels to the Cubs, should be happy about this deal. He has a chance to bounce back and prove he deserves a longer term deal going into 2014, while simultaneously making $13 million for one year's work. Haren's numbers last year were not good, and combined with a hip injury, he didn't look like a player who could garner more than $10 million for one season going into 2013. Haren projects well according to PECOTA due in large part to his recent history, which has been very good. Harne's drop in fastball velocity isn't a good sign, but the better pitcher learn to get around drops in velocity by throwing more strikes on the corners, and outsmarting hitters using pitch selection and movement. Here's the best part of this deal, Haren doesn't have the pressure on him that he could have had elsewhere. The Nationals may be a playoff contendor, but Haren isn't the 1st, 2nd, or even 3rd starter for D.C.'s team, he's 4th at best. If Haren can post the 3.51 FIP Bill James expects him to, he'll provide plenty of value to the Nats. The Nationals are paying a steep price here for someone trending the wrong way, but it's only for one year, and the Nationals, while built to win now, are also built to win in 2 years.
My Grade: B

Shane Victorino

Red Sox sign Shane Victorino to a 3-year $39 million contract: First of all, congrats to Shane on this contract. Victorino will receive 30% more money per season over the course of his deal with the Red Sox than Angel Pagan will receive in his deal with the Giants. So did the Red Sox overpay? The first reaction on Twitter was that this deal won't work out well for the Red Sox. Much of this reaction is based on Victorino's 2012 performance. After 4 straight seasons over 100 wRC+, Victorino managed only a 94 in that category. In addition, Vicctorino's .310 wOBA, .128 ISO, and 8.0% BB rate were all 5 year lows for the Flyin' Hawaiian. On the other hand, Vic stole 39 bases last season, and hit left-handed pitchers to the tune of a .391 wOBA. Shane's defense and base running remained fixtures of his overall value last season posting a 2.3 UBR, 2 DRS, and 4.4 UZR last season splitting time between the Phillies and the Dodgers. The reason this deal works well for the Red Sox isn't necessarily clear on the surface, so let's look deeper. Victorino hits better from the right side than the left, and what sits so obtrusively in left field at Fenway Park? If you guess the Green Monster, you would be correct. In order to get on base at Fenway, all a hitter needs to do is hit a ball off of the Green Monster, which is located only 320 or so feet away from home plate. Once Shane gets on base he is a threat to steal, allowing bigger bats like Johnny Gomes, David Ortiz, and Mike Napoli to knock him in. Defensively Victorino can play right field, and if the Red Sox decide to move Ellsbury at the trade deadline, Shane can move from right to center field. The Red Sox signed Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino for 3 years at a combined total of $78 million. B.J. Upton recently signed a 5-year $75.25 million contract. So the Sox get two older players for about the same amount of money as the Braves got Upton. Looks bad, but Victorino and Napoli are more projectable, whereas Upton was signed based a lot on unproven talent. Seems like the Red Sox are making smart signings, not flashy ones.
My Grade: B+ (Sure, this might not turn out the way the Red Sox want it to, but it gives them enough options to make me think it will work out well for both sides.)

As usual, hundreds of rumors for all sorts of players were thrown around today. Some included Diamondbacks young studs Tyler Skaggs and Trevor Bauer, while others concerned R.A. Dickey and Justin Upton. From what I can tell, the second that Zack Greinke works out a deal with either the Dodgers or the Rangers (currently the two likeliest candidates), we will see a lot more signings. The other interesting factoid is that Michael Bourn remains unsigned. A Scott Boras client, Bourn, like Prince Fielder last season could go another month without signing a contract, but my guess is that he ends up with a contract in the next 2 weeks. For more on the Winter Meetings, check out the Summerpastime Facebook page at www.facebook.com/SummerPastime or check out the Summerpastime Twitter feed at @summerpastime.

Winter Meetings: Day 1

Today was day 1 of the infamous winter meetings. For those of you unaware, Baseball's winter meetings occur every year around the first week of December. It is a week full of most of Baseball's executives, reporters, agents, and coaches who gather in a hotel to perform a number of activities. Front offices look to improve their clubs, agents look to get their clients signed to lucrative deals, coaches give interviews, and reporters disseminate the mounds of information they compile.

This year the winter meetings are being held in Nashville, Tennessee at the Gaylord Osprey Hotel and Convention Center. In the past, the meetings have lacked the fanfare that has more recently become commonplace, but due to the high profile free agents, infinite number of possible trades, and most importantly the MILLIONS, and I capitalize that word for a reason, of dollars thrown around, Baseball's Winter Meetings have become the event of the offseason.

So, let's recap a bit of the action we have already witnessed on just the opening day of the meetings.

Mike Napoli

Red Sox sign C/1B Mike Napoli to a 3-year $39 million contract: First, at this year's winter meetings, this is Ben Cherington's Red Sox, not John Henry's Red Sox. By that I'm implying that Cherington now has the reins to the Red Sox horse, music to the ears of Red Sox fans sick of signings like Carl Crawford. With Cherington making mostly autonomous decisions, his front office penned Mike Napoli to a three-year contract with an average annual salary of $13 million. Napoli played the last 2 years for the Texas Rangers, catching, playing a bit of first base, and DHing for Ron Washington's club. In 7 seasons, Napoli has been worth 20 wins according to Fangraphs, 16.8 wins according to Baseball-Reference, and 21.2 wins according to Baseball Prospectus. He's a versitile player, having the ability to both catch and play first base. The Red Sox already signed David Ross to a 2-year deal, and retain both Ryan Lavarnway and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, so why would the team make this deal? First, the Red Sox needed a first baseman, so if their plan is to have Napoli (-4 DRS at catcher, 0 DRS at 1st base) at first base, this seems like a good deal as far as that position is concerned. If the team expects Napoli to catch even 50 games, it points towards Cherington compiling as much catching talent as possible in a market where few catchers remain with numerous teams looking for catchers. Essentially, it allows the team to trade someone like Saltalamacchia or Lavarnway for a better return than they would regularly see. Napoli is a masher; he hits for power, and is patient at the plate (.248 career ISO, .356 career OBP). Bottom line is, the Red Sox got a solid player at a position they needed for a reasonable contract.
My grade: B+ (could become an A if the team can move Saltalamacchia for a decent prospect)

Pagan

Giants sign Angel Pagan to a 4-year $40 million contract: Pagan had been quite the enigma in Baseball circles in that he has previously been traded for Andres Torres, but he's also put up 3 seasons of 2.9 wins or more (Fangraphs). Due to the Giants recent World Championship, Pagan is far more a household name than before, but many might be surprised at a $10 million annual average salary for a center fielder that had to compete with Michael Bourn, Josh Hamilton, B.J. Upton, and Shane Victorino in the center field market this offseason. On the other hand, just like Upton's recent signing with the Braves, this contract looks like a perfect fit. Pagan is 31, and might not be playing center field in 2 seasons, but the value he adds by getting on base, and adding more than a .400 slugging percentage gives him the potential to easily be worth 2.0 wins per season, which is the number he must achieve to justify his new average annual salary. The Phillies and Giants were said to be the two main players for Pagan, and not too surprisingly, Pagan resigned with the world champions. The Giants got a player that could play two solid seasons in center followed by 2 Melky Cabrera-like seasons in either corner spot, while doing a great job setting the table at the top of the Giants lineup. Sure, Pagan is set to regress a bit over the next few years, but if he can put up even 75% of his average annual production, we will look back on this deal as a steal for San Fran.
My Grade: A- (good for player, good for team, only randomness can screw with this one)

Joakim Soria

Ranger sign Joakim Soria to a 2-year $8 million contract: The Rangers have recently made it a priority to sure up their bullpen. This has a lot to do with affects their starting pitchers feel from the immensely hitter friendly ballpark in Arlington, and the team's desire to get solid talent for reasonable prices despite the drastically inflated market for relievers. Soria is coming off of his 2nd, yes I said 2nd, not first, reconstructive UCL surgery (commonly know as Tommy John Surgery). Soria is a 28-year-old righty reliever who has never had a season in which he didn't post at least a WARP, rWAR, or fWAR less than 1.0. That might not sound like much, but given the fact that relievers throw 30% of the innings that starters do, being worth $5 million a season is nothing to sneeze at. What surprises me here is the length of the deal, Rarely do pitchers coming off any arm surgery get more than a one-year deal, but Soria got 2 years. This bodes well for fellow free agent reliever Brian Wilson (also coming off of TJ Surgery), but also shows that the Rangers think Soria will return to his previous form. The average annual salary of $4 million per season represents the concerns the Rangers have, but more so, it shows just how inflated the market for relievers has gotten. With pitchers like Jonathan Broxton and Brandon League getting incredibly inflated deals for their given skill sets, the Rangers would rather go after an injury plagued player than with upside than a proven reliever for way too much money. Maybe if every team didn't employ the ridiculous pitcher for an inning bullpen system none of this would have happened.
My Grade: B (could be great, could be awful, not a lot to lose for the Rangers either way)

James Loney

Rays sign James Loney to a 1-year $2 million contract: This deal intrigued me a lot. I recently wrote about Loney's potential to be a serious bounce back candidate for next season. He has continued to get on base and play good defense, two things the Rays look for in their players. Due to the hype surrounding Loney when he played in LA, most see his recent production as putrid as opposed to average. In order to satisfy this deal, Loney needs to be worth ~ 0.3 wins (Fangraphs) at the end of the 2013 season. Bill James projects him to post a .319 wOBA, with a .337 OBP, and .127 ISO. PECOTA sees Loney as a 1.5 WARP player next season (worth more than $8 million), with a .345 OBP, and .143 ISO. The Rays have little money to spend, and usually pursue improvements in their club via trade and not free agency due to those financial constraints (come on Rays fans, support your team). In this case, the Rays got a steal. In an offseason in which Loney was in the top 4 in the 1st baseman market, Tampa irked out a deal in which they will essentially pay Loney pennies. One thing is for certain, Loney will play above average defense at first base, something he has done almost every season he's played. With a number of ground ball pitchers, and good infield defense, this can only further's the Rays' ability to subdue opposing offenses, even when the ball is put in play. I projected Loney to make more than $6 million for next season at a 1-year deal. He's getting less than 1/3 of that money in this deal. My Grade: A (The only person unhappy with this deal is Loney's agent?)

For more on the winter meetings, I recommend following www.mlbtraderumors.com or checking out Ken Rosenthal, John Paul Morosi, Buster Olney, or Tim Kurkjian on Twitter. Come back tomorrow for a recap of day 2 of the winter meetings.

Non-Tenders

Recently I expounded on the idea of the qualifying offer. Baseball's offseason has so many intricacies, terms, and ideas that even an adept Baseball fan may not understand. The qualifying offer being one such term, and non-tendering being another. Recently teams made public the names of players that would be non-tendered, thus ending the relationship between the given team and those players, effectively making those players free agents.

Tendering a contract literally means offering a contract. So, a team that offers Zack Greinke, a free agent this offseason, a contract could be tendering him a contract. Players who have played out the first few years of their original contract (the one the player signed when drafted) become arbitration eligible. Essentially, in order to attempt to properly compensate young players who find themselves still years away from free agency, MLB put in a system in which the player and team present information to a third party who decided what that player's contract will be for the next season. It is done on a season-to-season basis, and some players can go through 4 years worth of arbitration before becoming eligible for free agency. Any player who is arbitration eligible must be tendered a contract by a specific date, which happens to be December 2nd this year. Any arbitration eligible player not tendered a contract becomes a free agent. Arbitration can be an expensive process for teams. Especially when a previously productive player is coming off of a less productive season because that player will most likely make more money in arbitration, due to his past performance. A team might want to retain that player, but not at the expected arbitration salary, so the team non-tenders the player, allowing him to become a free agent, then offer him a separate deal for less money.

The process can be complicated, especially given the fact that the arbitration process has many flaws incorporated into it. Since it is complicated, here is a simple rule. Teams non-tender players when the team would rather risk losing the player to another team than possibly pay them an exorbitant amount of money through arbitration.

Non-tendering a player can prove fruitful or fruitless. Sometimes the player in question will sign with another club and perform very well whereas other times non-tendering a player can be the best way to dump a declining or injury-prone player. Some names that came out on the non-tender list this offseason include John Lannan, Mark Reynolds, Ian Stewart, Jair Jurrjens, Jeff Karstans, and Brian Wilson. The common themes amongst these players are injuries, Karstans, Wilson, and Jurrjens, and declines in productivity, Lannan and Sterwart. If you want a more comprehensive list, and way to track players who have been non-tendered, tendered, et cetera, check out MLBtraderumors page here.

John Lannan

Where might some of these non-tendered players wind up? Between 2008-2011 John Lannan averaged 1.3 fwins (stands for fWAR), which is worth between $6-7 million on this years free agent market. Lannan was set to make about $5.5 million dollars in arbitration. The Nationals don't need Lannan in their rotation, and would rather use that money to fill a void elsewhere on the team. Between 08' and 11', Lannan was incredibly consistent, putting up FIPs between 4.20 and 4.80, BB % around 8%, and most importantly the 13th best ground ball percentage in the league. Lannan strikes out very few hitters, but makes up for his lack of swing-and-miss ability with pitches that cause lots of ground balls. Lannan throws four pitchers, a fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup. According to pitch f/x data, his changeup and curveball are solid to above average pitches, causing the ground balls, while Lannan's fastball and slider leave something to be desired. Combine Lannan with a good infield defense, and he could be worth anywhere from 1 win to 3 wins. Any team hoping to find a more suitable fifth starter should take a serious look at John Lannan. The Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies, and San Diego Padres could all be solid destinations for Lannan. Toronto has been rumored to be looking for an upgrade for J.A. Happ, while the Phillies might want a more experienced pitcher than Tyler Cloyd, and the Padres could turn Lannan into a great trade piece at the trade deadline.

Brian Wilson, known as "The Beard", put up a few productive years out of the San Francisco bullpen. With Sergio Romo taking his spot in the back end of the Giants bullpen, combined with Wilson's recent Tommy John surgery made Wilson an obvious non-tender candidate. Wilson is very valuable, but not in the typical way. Any team with money that is in need of a veteran cog in the bullpen could take a chance on Wilson, given his low cost, and Wilson's desire to prove himself. A team that might not be in contention next season could look to sign Wilson in order to flip him for prospects at the trade deadline in July. According to PECOTA, Wilson could be worth one WARP per season for the next three years. Any team that can sign Wilson to a one-year deal worth no more than $6 million could end up with a solid bargain. Look for the big clubs like Boston, Baltimore, Los Angeles (both LA teams), and Detroit to take a chance on Wilson.

Mark Reynolds

Finally, there's Mark Reynolds. Reynolds hit some big home runs for the Orioles last season, but with arbitration money in the realm of $10 million or more coming to him, the Orioles wisely non-tendered Reynolds. The issue with Reynolds isn't his incredibly high strikeout totals, but finding him a place to play. Reynolds rarely plays good defense at third base, his original position, and is below average at first base. Obviously, the American League offers an alternative to this, the designated hitter, but there are only 15 DH spots in the majors. The most logical spot would be Houston, a team moving from the NL to the AL, and thus in need of a designated hitter. On the other hand, it isn't difficult to find a hitter with pop who can't play defense, so instead of spending money on Reynolds, the obvious solution is to put a prospect in the DH role who costs far less money. Reynolds might be a possibility for the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays need a first baseman, and are not shy to put a home run hitter who strikes out often in that spot. Also, the Rays could DH Reynolds to take away from him negatively affecting their infield defense. Some team will take a chance on Reynolds, his power is undeniable, but whichever team does, would never have gotten that chance had the non-tender rule not been in place.

Now that you have a full understanding of non-tendering, when this time comes about next season you might be able to point to specific players who make good non-tender candidates and other that don't. Remember, oftentimes the most important pieces to a 25-man roster can come from the most remote of places, like the jungle of non-tendered players. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilsobr01.shtml