Winter Meetings: Day 2

Baseball's Winter Meetings in Nashville, Tennessee got off to a quick start yesterday with a number of free agent signings including Mike Napoli, Joakim Soria, Angel Pagan, and James Loney. No contract was signed that totaled more than $40 million, but each contract signing improved the club involved, and made the players involved all rich men with secure jobs, something the average American cannot claim. So, what happend in day 2?

Dan Haren

Washington Nationals sign Dan Haren to 1-year $13 million contract: The Nationals are always making headlines with their pitching. Most recently, the club traded young fireballer Alex Meyer to the Twins in exchange for center fielder Denard Span. That move opened up a lot of moves for the Nats involving position players, but while tons of rumors have been flying concerning Adam LaRoche and Michael Morse, it was the Nats rotation that got a boost on day 2. Haren, most recently rumored to have been traded from the Angels to the Cubs, should be happy about this deal. He has a chance to bounce back and prove he deserves a longer term deal going into 2014, while simultaneously making $13 million for one year's work. Haren's numbers last year were not good, and combined with a hip injury, he didn't look like a player who could garner more than $10 million for one season going into 2013. Haren projects well according to PECOTA due in large part to his recent history, which has been very good. Harne's drop in fastball velocity isn't a good sign, but the better pitcher learn to get around drops in velocity by throwing more strikes on the corners, and outsmarting hitters using pitch selection and movement. Here's the best part of this deal, Haren doesn't have the pressure on him that he could have had elsewhere. The Nationals may be a playoff contendor, but Haren isn't the 1st, 2nd, or even 3rd starter for D.C.'s team, he's 4th at best. If Haren can post the 3.51 FIP Bill James expects him to, he'll provide plenty of value to the Nats. The Nationals are paying a steep price here for someone trending the wrong way, but it's only for one year, and the Nationals, while built to win now, are also built to win in 2 years.
My Grade: B

Shane Victorino

Red Sox sign Shane Victorino to a 3-year $39 million contract: First of all, congrats to Shane on this contract. Victorino will receive 30% more money per season over the course of his deal with the Red Sox than Angel Pagan will receive in his deal with the Giants. So did the Red Sox overpay? The first reaction on Twitter was that this deal won't work out well for the Red Sox. Much of this reaction is based on Victorino's 2012 performance. After 4 straight seasons over 100 wRC+, Victorino managed only a 94 in that category. In addition, Vicctorino's .310 wOBA, .128 ISO, and 8.0% BB rate were all 5 year lows for the Flyin' Hawaiian. On the other hand, Vic stole 39 bases last season, and hit left-handed pitchers to the tune of a .391 wOBA. Shane's defense and base running remained fixtures of his overall value last season posting a 2.3 UBR, 2 DRS, and 4.4 UZR last season splitting time between the Phillies and the Dodgers. The reason this deal works well for the Red Sox isn't necessarily clear on the surface, so let's look deeper. Victorino hits better from the right side than the left, and what sits so obtrusively in left field at Fenway Park? If you guess the Green Monster, you would be correct. In order to get on base at Fenway, all a hitter needs to do is hit a ball off of the Green Monster, which is located only 320 or so feet away from home plate. Once Shane gets on base he is a threat to steal, allowing bigger bats like Johnny Gomes, David Ortiz, and Mike Napoli to knock him in. Defensively Victorino can play right field, and if the Red Sox decide to move Ellsbury at the trade deadline, Shane can move from right to center field. The Red Sox signed Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino for 3 years at a combined total of $78 million. B.J. Upton recently signed a 5-year $75.25 million contract. So the Sox get two older players for about the same amount of money as the Braves got Upton. Looks bad, but Victorino and Napoli are more projectable, whereas Upton was signed based a lot on unproven talent. Seems like the Red Sox are making smart signings, not flashy ones.
My Grade: B+ (Sure, this might not turn out the way the Red Sox want it to, but it gives them enough options to make me think it will work out well for both sides.)

As usual, hundreds of rumors for all sorts of players were thrown around today. Some included Diamondbacks young studs Tyler Skaggs and Trevor Bauer, while others concerned R.A. Dickey and Justin Upton. From what I can tell, the second that Zack Greinke works out a deal with either the Dodgers or the Rangers (currently the two likeliest candidates), we will see a lot more signings. The other interesting factoid is that Michael Bourn remains unsigned. A Scott Boras client, Bourn, like Prince Fielder last season could go another month without signing a contract, but my guess is that he ends up with a contract in the next 2 weeks. For more on the Winter Meetings, check out the Summerpastime Facebook page at www.facebook.com/SummerPastime or check out the Summerpastime Twitter feed at @summerpastime.

The Trade that Wasn't

My most recent article, titled "Haren Here, Marmol There" talked about the trade made between the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Angels. The Trade was a swap; Dan Haren for Carlos Marmol. I examined the deal, but later, following the posting of the article, the trade was confirmed as dead. Apparently, Carlos Marmol leaked it to a dominican reporter that he had been traded to the Angels, the reporter inferred that the player going to the Cubs was Haren, and the news spread like a wildfire.

The Cubs reported no trade, and Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports confirmed it. So, take the previous article as an interesting hypothetical. I'm not completely surprised by this. This trade felt fishy from the beginning, as the Cubs seemed to be getting too good a deal. On the other hand, I bought into it just like everyone else. Nonetheless, there was no trade today between the Cubs and the Angels, instead the Angels will have to pay Haren's $3.5 million buyout as no one is reporting they picked up his option before 11pm eastern standard time.

Overall this will save the Angels more money that if this trade had actually happened, but then again, they didn't get Carlos Marmol.

Haren Here, Marmol There

The Angels had until 11pm to make something happen. At that point the team would have to either pick up or decline the option on righty Dan Haren. Recently the team announced they would be actively shopping both Ervin Santana and Dan Haren, hoping to trade them for salary relief as well as relief pitchers. They successfully traded Santana to the Kansas City Royals in exchange for a minor league lefty specialist, but had yet to move Haren. Both Santana and Haren had particularly awful seasons in 2012, but both are bounce-back candidates, making them valuable to teams that could otherwise not afford to take a chance on a player who played so poorly last season.

Enter the Chicago Cubs. Today, the Cubs announced that they had acquired Dan Haren from the Angels in exchange for reliever Carlos Marmol. Marmol, has had his ups and downs with the Cubs. He's recently shown rises in his BB% and HR/FB%, both bad signs for a pitcher who tends to be wild. His strikeout percentage hasn't dropped off, so Marmol still shows signs of his 2010 self, when he posted a 3.0 fWAR, but overall, he may cause more headaches for Mike Scioscia rather than solve problems. The Angels are fairly transparent. They want to sign Zack Greinke to a long-term deal, and improve their bullpen. This move saves them $5.7 million ($15.5 million - $9.8 million), which doesn't seem like much, but it could make the difference between staying under the luxury tax and not. 

The Cubs come out fairing very well in this deal. They "bought low" on Haren's potential productivity. Haren is a perfect bounce-back candidate. He has averaged 4.7 fWAR since becoming an everyday starting pitcher. His dip in 2012 to a weaker 1.8 WAR makes me think that the Cubs can expect Haren to produce a WAR in 2013 somewhere between 2-3.5 WAR, which would make the $15.5 million the Cubs now owe him reasonable. The Cubs have a solid defensive infield including Starlin Castro, Darwin Barney, and Anthony Rizzo, maning that a ground ball pitcher like Haren could flourish from playing with them. The Cubs were desperate to rid themselves of Marmol, especially since he became both more expensive and less effective at the same time. 

Overall, this deal favors the Cubs. I'm not sure what other offers were on the table for Haren, but I feel for Jerry Dipoto if this was the best he could do. I hope the $6 million he's saving due to this transfer is worth it. Although Marmol can be affective, he's trending the opposite way, while Haren's 2012 may have been just a one-year drop. Both players will become free agents following the 2013 season, unless they sign a contract extension.