Taming the Wild

George Kottaras

Today the Kansas City Royals announced that they had claimed catcher George Kottaras off of waivers. Kottaras isn't a household name, but the move made me look into whether this was a good fit, or whether the Royals had another motive. Kottaras has played at least part-time in the Majors since 2009, playing in a career high 85 games last season. In his limited role, Kottaras has faced mostly right-handed pitching. He bats from the left-side, and has the typical platoon splits of a hitter with tools at the plate, but who has difficulty hitting MLB breaking balls off of lefties. Kottaras began the 2012 season in Milwaukee, but half way through the season, the Brewers traded him to the Oakland Athletics. The Athletics recently participated in a three-way trade that sent Michael Morse to Seattle and John Jaso to Oakland. Jaso's value has been written about extensively, but lost in that deal was Kottaras.

 Kottaras is an average hitter, with a career wOBA of .322. On the other hand, over the last two seasons, as Kottaras has played more games, his OPS+ has been above average, 107 in 2011 and 108 in 2012. He hasn't hit many home runs, but his isolated power split is vast. Kottaras has posted a .209 ISO against right-handed pitching but only a .129 ISO vs. lefties. While this fact isn't dissimilar from many left-handed hitters, a closer look using pitch F/X data shows that Kottaras has an affinity to hit pitches in the upper portion of the strike zone against right-handed pitching for power. In fact, despite the adage that left-handed hitters are good low-ball hitters, Kottaras seems to be a better hitter against balls that are up in the strike zone against both righties and lefties. Overall, Kottaras looks like a hitter who is beginning to figure some things out at the plate. He is able to get on base against both righties and lefties, but shows impressive power numbers against only righties. This combination is enough to get him a back-up catching job, but I think something else caused the Royals to snag the former Athletic off of waivers.

Kottaras isn't a great defensive catcher, posting a slightly negative defensive rating according to Fangraphs in 2012. In fact, he has never posting a positive defensive rating. Fangraphs calculates their defensive for catchers based on two major statistics, rSB and RPP, with rSB accounting for a catcher's need to throw out base runners well and RPP accounting for a catcher's ability to block balls in the dirt. Teams that have pitchers who don't have good pick-off moves or are slow to the plate need catchers with good rSB's in order to counteract their pitchers' deficiencies. If a team's pitching staff has pitchers with erratic control and propensities for throwing breaking balls with lots of movement, said team would want a catcher with good RPP numbers. While Kottaras hasn't posted very good rSB numbers, his RPP numbers have been positive since 2010. In fact, since 2010, Kottaras ranks 13th amongst all MLB catchers in RPP, ahead of names like Jonathan Lucroy, John Buck, and Kurt Suzuki, and just behind Ivan Rodriguez, Buster Posey, and Jason Kendall. Given these numbers, a team whose pitchers have a proclivity for being wild would benefit far more from Kottaras's services as opposed to a pitching staff with pinpoint control.

Given Kottaras' talents for blocking balls in the dirt, it stands to reason that the Brewers wouldn't want to let him leave, especially since the Brewers' pitching staff was 9th in the league in wild pitches in 2012 and 3rd in the league in wild pitches since 2010. On the other hand, in 2012, both other catchers on the Brewers' roster, Jonathan Lucroy and Martin Maldonado also posted positive RPP's, making Kottaras expendable, but not worthless. In fact, it's that value that the Kansas City Royals may have picked up on. This offseason, the Royals made a significant trade, acquiring Wade Davis and James Shields from the Rays in exchange for a dynamic package of prospects. Both Davis and Shields will make immediate impacts, Shields as their ace pitcher, and Davis as either a back of the rotation starter or right-handed reliever out of the pen. In addition, the Royals also added righty Ervin Santana to their rotation. Santana is a strikeout pitcher with a hard fastball and knee-buckling slider that often ends up in the dirt. Shields and Santana both ranked in the 21 pitchers in the Majors since 2010 in wild pitches, and since 2008 Shields, Santana, and fellow Royals pitcher Luke Hochevar have ranked in the top 30 in wild pitches. Overall, it seems as the Royals would disproportionately benefit from a catcher who is above average at blocking balls in the dirt, especially since if Kansas City is going to make the playoffs for the first time since 1985 every positive addition, no matter how small, will make a difference.

Salvador Perez

Kansas City now has a dynamic duo of backstops, with both Kottaras and young stud Salvador Perez on the roster. Perez is the better hitter of the two, and has better overall defensive numbers. In fact, Perez excels defensively in areas at which Kottaras is lacking, and visa versa. Perez has a very strong arm, and very good mechanics behind the plate, but is just below average in blocking balls in the dirt. Since overall defensive ratings for catchers weight throwing out base runners as more important than blocking balls in the dirt, Perez looks like the better of the two, but by adding Kottaras into the mix, it gives the Royals affordable and talented defense behind the plate. Kottaras also adds some more veteran experience, a left-handed bat with good power, and allows the Royals not to stress Perez too much without giving up too much production. Look to see Kottaras play predominantly against right-handed pitching, but more importantly, look for him to catch when James Shields and Ervin Santana take the mound. I'm in no way saying that it is absolute, especially given that Salvador Perez's RPP numbers aren't awful, and given his age, there is the possibility that his RPP numbers can improve. For the time being, the Royals see Kottaras' skills as solid value added, especially since his 2013 salary is only $1 million and he isn't a free agent until the 2016 season.

Don't overlook signings or pickups like this one. Numerous other teams could have benefited from even 80 games worth of George Kottaras. One specific team that comes to mind is the Chicago White Sox. White Sox pitchers have thrown the 3rd most wild pitches in the Majors since 2010, and the team recently lost veteran catcher A.J. Pierzynski to free agency. Moreover, given Pierzynski's absence, the team is considering using youngster Tyler Flowers as their dominant catcher in 2013. Adding a more veteran left-handed hitting catcher who can handle erratic pitching would seem prudent. The White Sox play in the same division as the Royals, the Sox finished one spot ahead of KC in 2012, and they haven't undergone nearly as many positive renovations to their roster as the Royals have done. So, picking up Kottaras not only benefits the Royals directly, but also indirectly benefits them by not allowing the White Sox to pick him up. Who's to say the Sox would have picked up Kottaras, but he does fit their team incredibly well. Look for pitchers like James Shields and Ervin Santana to have slightly better strikeout numbers than they did in 2012. Some of that will be due to moving to a less talented division, but some may also come from their ability to throw any pitcher to get a hitter out without worrying that the ball may get away from their catcher. While trading for Shields and Santana were sexier and more productive moves, both come with risks, which the Royals are lessening by adding Kottaras to the mix. It's possible that the Royals will make the playoffs for the first time since the 1980's in 2013, but the odds are against them, so it's a good thing that George Kottaras, the forgotten catcher, now dons a royal and white uniform.

Sweet DeJesus

As February 12th, the day that Phillies' pitchers and catchers report to spring training, approaches, many pundits, fans, and analysts continue to discuss the Phillies recent inactivity in improving the team's 2013 outfield. As their depth chart currently stands, the Phillies will play the newly acquired Ben Revere in center field, Domonic Brown in right field, and a mix of John Mayberry Jr., Darin Ruf, and Layne Nix in left field.  If we look at Fangraphs.com "fans projections" current Phillies outfielders will produce ~ 7.9 fwins combined. For comparison's sake, the same projections have the Nationals outfield of Werth, Span, and Harper putting up more than 12 combined fwins. So, from the looks of it, the Phillies have some work to do if they expect to compete for 1st place in he NL East or even a playoff spot.

Platoon: Not Just a Movie:
Platoon was a great war movie featuring Charlie Sheen, Willem Dafoe, and Tom Berenger. In Baseball the word platoon doesn't imply an Oliver Stone directed war movie, but when two or more players (usually 2) that play the same position, split time at said position instead of anointing one the starter and the other an occasional fill-in. The usual paradigm has one player named the starter for a given position, with bench players filling in for the starter once a week or even less frequently depending on the starters' age and production. The most common reason for using the platoon model instead of the starter/reserve model is when a manager is given two players who play the same position, but one player hits only lefties well while the other only hits righties well. The lefty/righty platoon difference is very real, and General Managers often exploit this idea when it is cheaper than paying/trading for one player that hits both righties and lefties well. For example, last season the Oakland A's used this system to perfection. At first base, the A's went with the duo of Chris Carter versus left-handed pitching, and Brandon Moss versus right-handed pitching. At the designated hitter spot, the A's went with lefty Seth Smith against righties and righty Johnny Gomes against lefties.

	DH		1B
	vs. LHP	vs. RHP	vs. LHP	vs. RHP
Player	Jonny Gomes	Seth Smith	Chris Carter	Brandon Moss
OBP	0.413	0.352	0.311	0.363
SLG	0.561	0.454	0.526	0.643
wOBA	0.418	0.345	0.386	0.419
wRC+	171	120	149	172

Now, if I were to show you these same players' combined statistics vs. lefties and righties, all four players' numbers would seem pedestrian. On the other hand, look at the numbers in the table above. All 4 of these players stats look equivalent or better than All-Stat caliber players. Here is the best number of all. The combined salary of these 4 players in 2012 was under $6,000,000. By using a platoon at two positions, the equivalent value of 2 star players for the price of ~ 1 fwin.

The Phillies Situation:

The Phillies find themselves in a solid platoon advantage situation. It is safe to assume that new center fielder Ben Revere will, if healthy, start the majority of the games in the outfield. On the other hand, the Phillies are then left with 4 players, 2 lefties, and 2 righties, to fill the corner outfield spots. With reports on the hot stove of the Phillies standing pat with their current depth chart as well as others reporting that Ruben Amaro continues to look for an outfielder, it is safe to assume that either option is possible. Unfortunately for Amaro, the number of available outfield options has been dwindling of late with Cody Ross signing a contract in Arizona, the Indians signing Nick Swisher, and Ichiro resigning with the Yankees. 

John Mayberry Jr.

Right now, the Phillies are projected to start Domonic Brown in right field and John Mayberry Jr. in left field. Mayberry, a right-handed batter, has little trouble dominating southpaws, but might consider closing his eyes when hitting against righties as it might produce more favorable results. 

	John Maybery Jr.
	vs. LHP	vs. RHP
OBP	0.328	0.302
SLG	0.547	0.379
wOBA	0.371	0.301
wRC+	133	86

Mayberry plays good enough defense to play in the outfield for 100+ games a season, but given his inability to figure out right-handed pitching, it's a good bet that we see Mayberry playing at one of the outfield positions every time the Phillies face a left-handed pitcher. 

The Phillies still have Laynce Nix on the roster. Nix can play both corner outfield positions, but projects better in left, and has distinct platoon splits.  

	Laynce Nix
	vs. LHP	vs. RHP
OBP	0.238	0.297
SLG	0.288	0.447
wOBA	0.235	0.317
wRC+	34	89

Nix's career numbers don't look too hot against any pitchers, but if played selectively against only right-handed pitching, Nix could provide some value. He has little ability to get on base, but against righties, Nix has shown he can smash the ball, with a slugging percentage of ~.450 and an ISO of .194. Nix isn't a very good defender, and project much better as a left-handed pinch hitter off of the bench as opposed to a left-handed platoon option in the outfield. 

Domonic Brown

In right field, the Phillies project to give Domonic Brown as many starts as possible. Brown was a top prospect only 2 years ago, and most think he is just a late MLB bloomer who needs to given playing time. Whether Brown lives up to his previous hype or becomes an official bust is uncertain, but what is fairly certain is that the Phillies want Brown to start in right field. Brown, a lefty, has shown a greater propensity for hitting right-handed pitching in comparison to southpaws. 

	Domonic Brown
	vs. LHP	vs. RHP
OBP	0.302	0.412
SLG	0.284	0.324
wOBA	0.260	0.321
wRC+	59	99

Brown's power has been iffy since being called up to the big show, but he continues to show improved patience at the plate, making him valuable given the Phillies struggles at getting men on base. If we assume that Brown improves in 2013, against lefties and righties, he still remains a decent candidate for a platoon. More pitchers are righties, so Brown, if platooned with another player, will still get most of the at bats. A platoon of Brown and Mayberry in right field looks something like this: 

	RF
	vs. LHP	vs. RHP	Average
Player	Mayberry	Brown
OBP	0.328	0.412	0.370
SLG	0.547	0.324	0.436
wOBA	0.371	0.321	0.346
wRC+	133	99	116

Witha  platoon of Mayberry and Brown in right field, the Phillies have the ability to start a player every day who can provide above-average offensive value in right field.

In left field, the right-handed hitter the Phillies can use in a platoon is Darin Ruf. Ruf exploded on the scene last season after hitting 40+ home runs between AA and AAA, before being called up to the Major Leagues where, in limited playing time, he produced good value. Ruf is a young right-handed hitter who projects to hit left-handed pitching better than righties even though he seems to be able to put up at least average numbers against pitchers throwing from both sides of the rubber. Ruf is a big guy, and doesn't project to be an outfielder who can play 150+ games defensively without hurting his team. Combining his and Laynce Nix's numbers in left field might seem like a fit, but even if Ruf produced, Nix's numbers aren't good enough to make one solid outfielder when platooning. This leaves the Phillies with one need, a left-handed hitting corner outfielder who can hit right-handed pitching, and preferably plays above-average defense. 

The Solution:

After looking around the league for a player that fits my description above, the best player I could find is the Cubs David DeJesus. DeJesus is a veteran, having played well in Kansas City, Oakland, and most recently in Chicago. The big question is, can DeJesus + Darin Ruf combine to make an above-average left fielder like Brown and Mayberry do in right? Here are DeJesus' career splits:

	David DeJesus
	vs. LHP	vs. RHP
OBP	0.325	0.367
SLG	0.346	0.449
wOBA	0.302	0.357
wRC+	80	117

As you can see, DeJesus hits a bit below average vs. southpaws, but is proficient at mashing righties. Due to Ruf's limited time in MLB, I'm going to use his overall projected statistics according to Fangraphs' "Fan Projections" for both righties and lefties combined, as the projections do not show splits.

	LF
	vs. LHP	vs. RHP	Average
Player	Ruf	DeJesus
OBP	0.336	0.367	0.352
SLG	0.486	0.449	0.468
wOBA	0.353	0.357	0.355
wRC+	115	117	116

Well, the two players combined would put up almost identical numbers to the combination of Mayberry and Brown in right field. Combine these two platoons with Ben Revere in centerfield, and the Phillies could legitimately muster an outfield that doesn't force a gag reflex. In addition to DeJesus' nice splits, he is under contract for 2013 at $4.25 million, with a team option for 2014 worth $6.5 million and a $1.5 million buyout. That is a very favorable contract, given that he would immediately become the most expensive outfielder on the Phillies roster if traded to Philly. DeJesus would also make up for Ruf's defensive inefficiencies. In his career playing left field, DeJesus has posted a combined 36.2 UZR and 8 DRS. Both of those numbers show an outfielder who may not be suited for center field, but can play well in left. 

Jonathan Pettibone

So, what would the Phillies have to give up to pry DeJesus from the Cubs? First, going into any negotiation with Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein, a GM has to assume that he may not end up with the better deal. On the other hand, if the return from the Cubs first well, as DeJesus does, the cubs getting the better overall deal may not make mean as much. The Cubs don't need to trade DeJesus, and the Phillies could seriously use the upgrade, so Hoyer and Epstein do hold all the cards. But, a package of RHP Jonathan Pettibone (BP ranks him the Phillies 8th best prospect) and RHP Michael Schwimmer could give the Cubs enough of a return to justify trading DeJesus while not putting another dent into the Phillies farm system. DeJesus' departure would open up the chance for the Cubs to see more of prospect Brett Jackson in the Majors, something the Cubbies weren't considering, but could prove fruitful. Acquiring Pettibone, who Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus consideres a solid #4 starter beginning in 2014, gives the Cubs a young, controllable option in their rotation as opposed to constantly signing pitchers like Scott Baker and Scott Feldman every offseason. Schimer is a young power right-handed bullpen pitcher with some MLB experience, something every team, especially one in repair, could use going forward. 

The Reality:

The Cubs have no need to trade David DeJesus unless the team on the other end of the trade truly gives them something valuable. While Pettibon + Schwimer doesn't seem like a star-studded package, it is more valuable to the Cubs than 1, maybe 2 years, of DeJesus. The Phillies would solve their outfield problem without raising payroll very much, and without depleting the last bit of talent left in their recently beleaguered farm system. The most important thing to remember is that trades are tricky, and that they sound far better in theory. In reality, this deal might be difficult to push, especially since the Cubs have no reason not to ask for a better return for DeJesus. To conclude, this deal would help both sides, probably make DeJesus happy as he would be playing for a winning team, and most importantly would most-likely end the offseason for the Phillies. Will it happen? I doubt it, but a fan can dream, can't he?

What's Wright and What's Wrong?

Recently, I wrote about two players who have been mentioned as possible trade candidates this offseason, the Twins Josh Willingham and the Indians Shin-Soo Choo. Both are outfielders, and neither is a true "star". Then there's David Wright. Wright constitutes the polar opposite of Choo and Willingham. He has been the focal point of the New York Mets for years, during the good times and the bad, although Mets fans might say they were all bad. As a third baseman, he plays a premium offensive and semi-premium defensive position, but by playing the hot corner in the big apple, he garners much more exposure than say Chase Headley or Aramis Ramirez.

Going into this offseason, Wright was coming off one of the best seasons of his career, second only to his 2007 campaign. He had previously signed a 7 year $70 million contract that included a team option for 2013 for $16 million. Wright has made about $54 million the last 6 seasons, but he has been worth a little more than twice that amount. Here is a look at his value since signing his current contract in 2007:

	fWAR	rWAR	WARP
2007	8.8	8.1	7.6
2008	7.1	6.7	7.2
2009	3.5	2.9	3.3
2010	4.0	2.5	5.3
2011	1.9	1.9	0.6
2012	7.8	6.7	5.7

Wright's fWAR stats are a bit inflated in comparison to his rWAR and WARP because much of his defense comes from his good range, while his below average arm leads to him not making some plays that average third baseman make regularly. Also, his recent back injuries had hindered his range, but last season, it came back with a vengeance. Nonetheless, let's not be too soured by his 2009-2011 years. Since 2007 Wright has averaged 5.5 fWAR per season, which would be worth ~ $25 million on the open market. That number just exemplifies the extremely team friendly deal he signed in 2007. On a separate note, if the Mets are to regain any semblance of their 2006 selves, they should look to sign their marquee young players to team friendly deals at young ages, like the one they signed with Wright in 07'.

Before I get into what the Mets should do with Wright, I'm going to take a quick look at his production over the last few years. This is to give you a glimpse into what he does best.

	wOBA	wRC+	ISO	HR	OPS+	OBP
2010	0.366	129	0.220	29	131	0.354
2011	0.338	116	0.172	14	115	0.345
2012	0.376	140	0.186	21	143	0.391

So, Wright, unlike many players, provides a team with a great mix of on base percentage as well as power hitting. Relatively, he is a very good run creator, especially given the other players who play at 3rd base like Cabrera, Beltre, and Headley. Wright's ISO has declined recently, but it is a stat that usually peaks in a player's mid 20's, so an almost 30 year old, he's right on track. At the same time, you would like to see his home run numbers remain more constant, especially since the Mets moved the fences in at Citi Field. This would seem to be more of a concern, since he hasn't topped 25 HR since 2010, but given his back injury in 2011, and the change in his approach at the plate in 2012, it isn't surprising.

Change of approach? Where did that come from? Well, after speaking with some very observant Mets fans who are relatives of mine, and then checking out the numbers to be sure, I discovered that Wright definitely changed his approach to at-bats. According to my sources, he began taking strike one without question. At first, this is a good strategy for seeing more pitches, and thus finding a better one to hit. This is confirmed by the decrease in his swing percentage, 41.6% in 2012 compared to a career 43.6% mark. In these cases you would like to see a decrees in swings on pitches outside of the strike zone, but because "taking the first pitch" is not the best way to accomplish this goal, Wright swung fewer times at pitches out of the zone than those in the strike zone. Pitchers began throwing easy to hit pitches to begin at bats, and if Wright took them, he began the at bat in an 0-1 hole every time. As we know from the incredible amount of research, a batter who begins his at bats down 0-1 has a far worse chance of reaching base than one who starts them with a 1-0 count.

As far as base running, Wright has always been a solid base runner, posting positive UBR values in 7 out of his 9 MLB seasons. This included a 1.2 UBR in 2012, a year in which he stole 15 bases, but was thrown out 10 times. It would seem that if Wright just attempted fewer steals, he might very well be a valuable asset on the base paths. Remember, speed diminishes with age, but knowledgeable base running can remain forever.

So, what should the Mets do with David Wright? Currently he is set to play for the Amazin's in 2013 at a cost of $16 million. Was nothing to happen between now and this time next year, Wright would become a free agent following the 2013 seasons. That is one of the least likely possibilites, so let's explore some of the others. First, the Mets could decide to negotiate a contract extension. General Manager Sandy Alderson has said that in the Mets' current situation he would rather not sign players to their 2nd contracts. Essentially he means that he doesn't want to get into negotiations over a contract for a player who's next contract will cover some of their prime as well as a part of their decline. This sentiment points towards an extension that might be heavier on the money side, but light on the years side. By my estimates, Alderson and the Mets would not offer Wright more than a 5-year $100 million extension. That would be $25 million per season (expecting about 5 fWAR), and it would take Wright into the 2018 season, at which time he would be 35 years old. In addition, if third base becomes a bit too much for Wright, and Mets prospect Wilmer Flores becomes their everyday third baseman, Wright could make a smooth transition to 2nd base.

The more likely option, and probably the most sensible one, is to trade Wright. Some might say that Wright is a fixture in New York, the star of the team, and a leader in the clubhouse. Even if all that were true, the Mets are rebuilding, so throw all of those intangibles out the window. This is a business and the Mets need to get back to making decisions based on facts. By picking up Wright's option for the 2013 season, the Mets made the number of teams willing to trade for the third baseman greater than before. Now, a team that would rather not extend him, but wants him for the one-year rental, can be in the discussion. Who might those teams be?

I would bet that the Braves, Phillies, Dodgers, and White Sox would all be in the discussion for Wright. Dark horse candidates might include the Yankees, Giants, and the Athletics. One of the big questions is, would the Mets be willing to trade Wright within the division, or worse, to the Yankees? In reality, the team may only negotiate outside of those teams, but unfortunately for them, some of the best candidates to trade for Wright are the Braves, Phillies, and Yankees. Since I often live in a world outside of reality, I will suspend that feature in order to perform this analysis.

The Braves are perfect for Wright. If you didn't hear, Chipper Jones retired this season, leaving a huge gap at third base. The Braves could move 2012 left fielder Martin Prado to third base, but if so it leaves a hole in left field. The Braves are no big market team, but for a player like Wright they could expend the necessary capitol to extend Wright for a number of years. In addition, the Braves also have pitching prospects coming out of their ears, something the Mets would love to take off their hands. A trade involving pitching prospect Randall Delgado would probably entice the Mets to make a move because a future rotation of Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Randall Delgado would be a force to be reckoned with. 

The Phillies need a third baseman. They recently resigned Kevin Frandsen, but he isn't the answer. With a mediocre third base market out there in free agency, and their only third base prospect a few years away, the Phillies could make a move for Wright. The team needs right-handed hitters as well, but the problem here will be if the Phillies have the prospects to trade for Wright. While the team has made it clear they want to give Domonic Brown a chance in the outfield, a trade of Domonic Brown and one of their pitching prospects like Jonathan Pettibone would be a fair trade for Wright. While the Phillies make sense here, this may be the least likely possibility due to the NL East rivalry, the Phillies uncertainty to extend Wright, and most importantly the Mets ability to find better prospects in return elsewhere.

The Dodgers have been, and will most likely continue to be the most active team in trades and free agency. They have lots of money, a desire to use it, and they play in the same division as the recent 2-time World Series champion San Francisco Giants. The team has said they are willing to trade right fielder Andre Ethier, and the Mets would love to acquire him. It's no secret that the Mets need outfield help, and Ethier would provide them with some much-needed stability. The Dodgers would probably have to tack a pitcher onto the deal, and trading for a 3B would mean moving Hanley Ramirez back to shortstop, but if hitting is what the Dodgers want, this is their best option. 

The White Sox want to resign Kevin Youkilis, and they have very little as far as prospects go. The White Sox would love David Wright, and they have a desperate need for a third baseman with some pop, but I don't think they have anything the Mets want, making this deal unlikely to happen.

What about the Yankees. After paltry play from Alex Rodriguez in the 2012 postseason, and an obvious decline in his numbers over the last few seasons, the Yankees would love to move A-rod to DH and Wright could be the perfect compliment to Robinson Cano going forward. The Mets are looking for pitching and outfield help. The Yankees could trade Phil Hughes and prospect Mason Williams, an outfielder, in exchange for Wright. Hughes is in his 2nd year of arbitration, but he's young, and if the Mets have any confidence in him, they could look to sign him to a 3-year deal with a fourth year team option for something in the neighborhood of $20 million. Williams projects to be a great all around outfielder, but he probably won't be ready until 2014 at the earliest. In the end, the Mets probably won't make a trade with their crosstown rivals; it might lose them the few fans they have left.

The Giants don't need a third baseman, but David Wright could prove to be a great upgrade for them in a number of ways. The Giants, despite winning the World Series still need more consistent offense. The  Giants have fan favorite Pablo Sandoval playing the hot corner, but with talks of trading first baseman Brandon Belt, the team should consider moving the hefty Sandoval to 1st and trading for a bonafide player like Wright. Add Wright to Buster Posey, Sandoval, and Hunter Pence and the Giants lineup becomes formidabile in the middle of the order. Yes, they would become very righthanded, but lefties hitting for power at AT&T park is something left only for Barry Bonds. The Giants have the money to extend Wright, and they could trade the Mets top prospect Gary Brown, an outfielder, and minor prospect Hector Sanchez, a catcher. The Mets need help in a number of places, but Brown would instantly become their top-hitting prospect and could begin playing in the Mets outfield in 2013. 

Finally we come to the Oakland A's. This is a team that, if they traded for Wright, would be doing so with no intention, or ability, to sign him to an extension. The A's have a solid defensive third baseman in Josh Donaldson, but he doesn't provide much as far as offense goes. The A's have 4 above average MLB outfielders, making one of them expendable. Colin Cowgill is the perfect player to trade. He came over from the Diamondbacks as a highly touted prospect, but his stock has dropped a bit recently. Add him to one of the many young pitchers in the A's minor league system like Sonny Gray, and you have a trade that satisfies both sides. The A's get a hitter to solidify their lineup for 2013, keeping them competitive with offensively minded teams like the Angels and Rangers, while not putting a big dent in the young core they rely on year in and year out. The Mets can instantly put Gray and Cowgill into their starting lineup, one in the rotation and one in the outfield, two spots in which they need help. Wheeler, Harvey, and Gray sounds pretty good as the rotation of the future, and Cowgill has potential to remain in the outfield for years to come. Both guys are cheap and under team control for a long time. 

In conclusion, I originally thought that the Mets best move was to trade David Wright. Now, after looking at their options, I wonder if offering him an extension might be the best thing for their team. Honestly, it all comes down to the money. If Wright demands more than the Mets are willing to pay him, a trade is the only option. Some might say the Mets should wait to trade him before the 2013 trade deadline, at which point a team may need Wright more than now, but the chances that the Mets could land the prospects they want for half year rental aren't high. The Mets have to find a deal that makes sense, if not, they can take a chance at trading him by the deadline or, more likely, they can extend him. One thing is for sure, Sandy Alderson is going to do what he thinks is best for the Mets' future, whether it involves David Wright is history that has yet to be written. 

New Look Red Sox

In every Major League Baseball season there are some surprise teams; those who play well despite expectations to the contrary, and those who play poorly when most thought the opposite. Teams consistently astound us. For example, the 2012 Baltimore Orioles have won 85 games this season and sit a half a game behind division leading New York. This from a team that won an average of 67 games over the last five seasons, and hasn't had a winning season since 1997. According to www.coolstandings.com the Orioles have a 90.2% chance of making the playoffs this year, whether it be via the wild card or by winning the AL East. The Orioles as well as the Oakland Athletics and Washington Nationals make up the positive surprise teams of 2012. For every success story there are usually for more failures. In 2012 the biggest failure in comparison to their pre-season expectations have to be the Boston Red Sox.

The Boston Red Sox in March 2012:

It's March ladies and gentlemen, the beginning of Baseball season. This year, like most in the past is one of hope, promise, and high expectations for the Boston's favorite team, the Red Sox. Oh sure, the team may have famously collapsed last season, losing on the final day of the season and thus not making the playoffs, but a new season brings new hope (like Star Wars), and the 2012 Red Sox look to reclaim the title of the "American League's best team" and win their third World Series title in 8 years. Even though this isn't news, just to get it out of the way, the Sox could finish with an awful record, which the won't, but as long as it bests the bleeping Yankees, that would be a win for Boston fans.

It's time to forget last season, especially Theo Epstein who left us for the friendlier confines of Chicago's north side, move on, and put every effort into winning this season. The Sox boast a strong, veteran line up that proves to thwart any pitcher standing 60 feet 6 inches away from home plate.

2012 Red Sox starting lineup:

	Player	Position	2011 WAR
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	CF	9.4
2	Dustin Pedroia	2B	7.9
3	Adrian Gonzalez	1B	6.5
4	David Ortiz	DH	4.1
5	Kevin Youkilis	3B	3.7
6	Ryan Sweeney	RF	0
7	Cody Ross	LF	1.1
8	Jared Saltalamacchia	C	1.7
9	Mike Aviles	SS	0.3
Total			34.7

So, offensively, going into the 2012 season the Red Sox had a powerful lineup. They returned young stud center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, who was snubbed as the Most Valuable Player in 2011 in favor of Justin Verlander. In addition, the Sox returned staples at second base, third base, and designated hitter. Pedroia, Youkilis, and Ortiz have been Red Sox favorites for years, and have rarely disappointed on the field. In addition, juggernaut 1st baseman Adrian Gonzalez was coming off of a huge year for the Sox and set to man first base at Fenway Park for the next 7 seasons after signing a contract extension. Although Ryan Sweeney and Mike Aviles don't scare the boots off of opponents, Aviles, Sweeney, newcomer Cody Ross, and Jared Saltalamacchia all provided value for the Sox going into 2012.  

Now let's take a look at their starting rotation in March of 2012:

	Player	2011 WAR
1	John Lester	3.7
2	Josh Beckett	4.3
3	Clay Buchholz	1.1
4	Felix Dubront	-0.1
5	Daniel Bard	1.9
Total		10.9

The Red Sox returned three solid starters in Lester, Beckett, and Buchholz, who pending any health issues should each provide at least 190 innings pitched. Daniel Bard was the most talked about Red Sox player in the off-season due to management's decision to move the young fire baller from the bullpen, where he flourished, to the starting rotation. Dubront was a young lefty that the organization wanted to look at in spring training, and due to solid outings in the pre-season, made the rotation. This rotation compared well to the Sox rival New York Yankees, and came up not too short in comparison to the Tampa Bay Rays stacked young pitching staff.  

For the Red Sox in March of 2012, the message was redemption. The team and it's fans wanted to redeem themselves after an historically tragic end to the 2011 season in which the team collapsed like a tent on which was dropped an elephant. Two players, LF Carl Crawford and RHP John Lackey looked to be on the disabled list for some time, and although Sox fans would have loved to see Crawford in the lineup, most happily waved goodbye to John Lackey who had just had his UCL reconstructed. The Sox also looked to rebound after losing their General Manager, Theo Epstein, who got out of his contract in Boston in order to sign with the Chicago Cubs. He left disciple Ben Cherington to navigate the rough and often cold waters of the Charles River by himself. With new manager Bobby Valentine at the helm, the Red Sox looked to prove to the Baseball world that 2011 was a fluke, and 2012 would be their sweet revenge.

The Boston Red Sox as of September 12th, 2012:

Unfortunately it didn't work out the way they had hoped. Here is the Red Sox lineup and starting rotation as of September 19th, 2012:

	Player	Position	2012 WAR
1	Pedro Ciriaco	3B	1
2	Jacoby Ellsbury	CF	1.5
3	Dustin Pedroia	2B	3.9
4	Cody Ross	LF	2.8
5	James Loney	1B	0.1
6	Jared Saltalamacchia	DH	1.9
7	Ryan Lavarnway	C	-0.8
8	Daniel Nava	RF	0.9
9	Jose Iglesias	SS	-0.4
Total			10.9
	Player	2012 WAR
1	John Lester	3.1
2	Felix Dubront	1.7
3	Clay Buchholz	2.1
4	Aaron Cook	0.6
5	Daisuke Matsuzaka	0.1
Total		7.6

Looks different doesn't it? A lot can happen in 6 months, and in the Red Sox case, a lot happened in the last 6 months. To note, the Red Sox have two injuries from their starting lineup. David Ortiz and Will Middlebrooks are both on disabled list. If you put them in the lineup given their WAR's to date, the total for the Sox lineup would go from 10.9 to 15.6, which is considerably better. The rotation hasn't faired as badly as the lineup, but it has two new names, Aaron Cook and Daisuke Matsuzaka, and lost the member with the highest WAR from 2011, Josh Beckett. John Lackey remains injured, as Red Sox fans make for a collective sigh of relief. The most important fact of all this is, the Red Sox record as of September 12th was 68-82, 18 games back of the Yankees for first place in the AL East and 17.5 games out of the second wild card spot. Teams with a better record than the Red Sox include the Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles, Oakland A's, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres, and Milwaukee Brewers. Let's just say things didn't go as planned.

Looking to the future:

Obviously, the Red Sox need to figure something out, change, adapt, or all of the above, in order to get back to their winning ways. Every team's front office, players, coaching staff, and ownership group, have goals in order to either improve, or in the case of the World Series winning team, watch the video of their parade as many times as possible in the 150 or so days between November and April. 

What does the off-season mean to the Red Sox. First it means they can stop embarrassing themselves on the field, as was the case this past Wednesday night when the team lost 13-3 vs. the Rays. Second, a number of players on their roster will become free agents, thus allowing Sox management to either attempt to resign them or let them leave and obtain some salary relief. Here is a list of the Red Sox notable free agents: 

Player	Position
Daisuke Matsuzaka	RHP
James Loney	1B
Cody Ross	OF
David Ortiz	DH
Bobby Jenks	RHP

Daisuke, more commonly referred to as Dice-K, has been, plainly put, as useful as a pile of leaves this season, after either pitching badly or minding his business on the disabled list in 2011. Matsuzaka is a high-risk high-reward player, and more importantly, one to whom the Red Sox will most likely decline to offer a contract. James Loney came to the Red Sox in the mega-deal that sent Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and Nick Punto to the Los Angeles Dodgers in return for Loney and some minor league prospects. He has little value to the Red Sox and most likely will leave Boston not having even bought a piece of homely property near Coolidge Corner. David Ortiz is the lone name on this list that has a decent chance to return to Fenway Park in 2013. Ortiz has recently been offered a number of 1-year contracts at high costs, all of which he has accepted. Ortiz was taring it up this year until he succumbed to injury. I believe the Red Sox should spend the money to resign him, as long as his contract does not exceed the $14.58 million dollars he made in 2012. Bullpen pitcher Bobby Jenks comes off the books, and I foresee the Red Sox giving him the old heave ho. That leaves outfielder Cody Ross. Ross has played well this season, and the Red Sox have been rumored to want to negotiate with him on a new contract. They have exclusive negotiating rights with Ross up to 5 days after the end of the 2012 World Series. Ross is 31 years old and will most likely looking for a contract similar to the one Twins outfielder Josh Willingham received (3 years/ $27 million), as the market this offseason for corner outfielder is slim pickings. In my opinion, the Red Sox should look to resign Ross, but shouldn't pay him a dime more than $9 million a year.

Returning players include John Lester, John Lackey, Dustin Pedroia, and Clay Buchholz. Otherwise, everyone else on the Red Sox is either a free agent, under their rookie contract, or arbitration eligible. Those notable arbitration eligible players include, Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Aviles. The others are mostly bullpen pitchers, and due to their replaceability, we are leaving them out. First, the easy one. Mike Aviles made $1.2 million in 2012. He can play multiple positions and 2.0 WAR and 9.5 UZR/150 at shortstop this season. My guess is, even in his second season of arbitration, his contract won't increase beyond the level at which the Red Sox shouldn't resign him. Offer him $5 million for one season, he will most likely accept it. He may not start every game, but he's a good fill-in player and definitely a solid bench option. 

Next we come to the biggest offseason question for the Red Sox. What to do about Jacoby Ellsbury. Ellsbury is arbitration eligible, and will become a free agent in 2014, at which time he, with the help of super agent Scott Boras, sign a monster deal in the range of the one Jayson Werth signed with the Nationals. Ellsbury has only had one incredible season in the big leagues, but it was stellar. When he has played he has been great, roaming the large and treacherous center field of Fenway Park. The Red Sox have a few options here. One, they could let Ellsbury go to arbitration and sign him to a one-year contract. If they do that, they have the option of trading him mid-season, signing him to a contract extension mid-season, or allowing him to play out his contract and leave via free agency. I can bet that the chances of them signing him to a contract extension mid-season are 1% likely. Trading him mid-season isn't out of the question, but a better haul might be gotten in return were they to trade him this offseason. Letting him play 2013 in a Red Sox uniform and then leave would provide them with one of the best center fielders in the game for a season and then no salary requirements for the next 5-7 seasons. It isn't a bad option, but it definitely isn't the best. 

Were the Red Sox to sign Ellsbury to a contract extension, they would be signing a potentially superstar  player who has been oft injured in his short career. It's a risk, and one I don't think the Red Sox are willing to take, especially with Scott Boras on the other side of the negotiating table. I think the Red Sox should look to trade Ellsbury this offseason.  With one year of arbitration left before he becomes an unrestricted free agent, a team that trades for Ellsbury will either sign him to an extension or use him for a year and allow him to walk. Teams that might want to trade for Ellsbury include the Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays, Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, and St. Louis Cardinals. The Rangers, Giants, Cardinals, and possibly the Braves would be most likely to extend Ellsbury while the Rays would probably use him for 2013 and then let him go. If I were Ben Cherington, I would love to get at least one very good prospect and possible 2 other lesser ones in a deal for Ellsbury. If he could sway an MLB ready young pitcher in the deal, that would the best-case scenario. The best bets are the Texas Rangers, St. Louis Cardinals, and Tampa Bay Rays. For a look at all of the trade possibilities for Jacoby Ellsbury, see the adjoining article to this. 

Other possible offseason trade candidates for the Red Sox include John Lackey and Jon Lester. Lackey spent all of 2012 on the DL after Tommy John Surgery, and didn't pitch well at all in 2011. On the other hand he has been a 4+ WAR pitcher for most of his career, and with his divorce behind him, should be more focused on baseball. In fact, Lackey's situation is very similar to what the Yankees faced with A.J. Burnett last year. The Yankees wanted to unload Burnett's big contract, knowing full well they would have to pay a large portion of Burnett's contract to whichever team made a deal for the righty. This would prove equivalent were the Red Sox to attempt to trade Lackey. Lackey has $30.5 million left on his contract. If they Red Sox took a page from the Yankees play book and paid between $17-20 million of Lackey's deal, I think a few teams would be willing to take a chance on the right- hander. Were I the Red Sox, I would actually keep Lackey, hoping he rebounds and pitches well. If he doesn't, try and trade him mid-season, with the willingness to pay a at least 2/3 of his contract, something they would have to have done this offseason, in order to unload him. 

Jon Lester provides better potential. Lester has $11.625 million left on his deal with a $13 million team option for 2014. If Lester wins or comes in 2nd in the Cy Young voting in 2013 he would qualify to void the team option (worth $13 million) for 2014. Lester will make a large sum of money on the open market, whenever that comes. The Red Sox wouldn't mind having him back, but he would most likely have to give them some sort of hometown discount, similar to the one Jared Weaver gave the Los Angeles Angels. Any team that trades for him will want to sign him to an extension, other than small market teams like the Pirates, Padres, Royals, Rays, or A's. Lester would be a hot commodity since he is owed less than $12 million in 2013 and under team control for $13 million in 2014 at which time he will be 30 years old. In the end, I think the Red Sox should deal Lester. They could get a corner outfielder in return, which would compliment Cody Ross very well on the other side. Offense is vital in the AL East and getting a solid corner outfield prospect and possibly a high risk high reward pitching prospect in return for Lester would well worth it. 

Okay, trades are nice, and the Red Sox have the ability to do a lot in that regard, but how about trading money for players. Wait, isn't that called free agency? Why yes it is. So, what could the Sox do in the 2012-2013 offseason in the free agent market? Unfortunately, other than center fielders, there isn't much to look for on the market in 2013. The Red Sox should pass on big names like Zack Geinke, Josh Hamilton, B.J. Upton, and Michael Bourn. They have no need for flipping a huge bill and not getting what they are looking for. That "feeding the beast" mentality is what got them into trouble in the first place. My advice for the Red Sox would be to go after one of he solid mid-level starting pitchers on the market like Edwin Jackson or Brandon McCathy Jackson has been getting 1-year deals recently, and has said he would like to sign a longer deal with his current team, the Washington Nationals. If the Nationals would rather not sign Jackson to his desired deal, the Red Sox could swoop in and offer Jackson a 3 year/$35 million deal. He would immediately become a big part of the Red Sox rotation, and Jackson would have the security of a 3-year deal. I like this deal for them, but if they can, the Red Sox should make an offer to A's righty Brandon McCarthy. Due to injury probability, which is somewhat high due to McCarthy's past, the Red Sox should offer him a 2 year contract worth between $19-23 million and refuse to take "no" for an answer. McCarthy gets strikeouts and ground balls, while not giving up home runs (0.81 HR/9) or walks (1.95 BB/9). He has pitched in pitcher friendly Oakland, but they wouldn't be expending too much for McCarthy while hoping to reap extreme benefits.

If I were GM and everything were to go the way I have said, this would be my 2013 Red Sox lineup and starting rotation in 2013:

	Player	Position	2012 WAR
1	Anthony Gose	CF	0.1
2	Dusin Pedroia	2B	3.9
3	David Ortiz	DH	2.9
4	Will Middlebrooks	3B	2.8
5	Cody Ross	LF	2
6	Ryan Lavarnway	1B	-0.8
7	Jared Saltalamacchia	C	1.9
8	Jerry Sands	RF	0
9	Pedro Ciriaco	SS	1
Total			13.8
	Player	2012 WAR
1	Brandon McCarthy	1.8
2	Felix Dubront	1.7
3	Clay Buchholz	2.1
4	Shelby Miller	0.2
5	John Lackey	DL
Total		4

For your information I'm assuming that the Red Sox will make a trade with the Blue Jays, sending them Jon Lester and in return getting at least Anthony Gose, who they can put in centerfield to replace Jacoby Ellsbury. I have had it so that they traded Ellsbury to the St. Louis Cardinals for starting pitcher Shelby Miller. Jerry Sands is playing in right field. He is a prospect the Sox got from the Dodgers in the mega-deal. This implies that they signed Brandon McCarthy and did not deal John Lackey. Playing Ciraco at shortstop isn't a great option, but he's a stopgap until top prospect Xander Bogaerts is ready to come to the Majors. In fact, due to the youth already on the field for the Sox, bringing up Bogaerts earlier than expected might not be the worst idea. Overall, this isn't going to make the Sox amazing. They have a bunch of young guys, Ryan Lavarnway playing 1st base, and John Lackey back in the rotation, but this team isn't built to win in 2013. They are however built to compete well in the offseason of 2013-2014 and to return to the playoffs in 2014. Some Red Sox fans may not find this solution satisfying, but often times the best way to calm the beast isn't to feed it, but to let it salivate over a big meal before devouring it. 

How to Spend Your Allowance

A house is on fire.  The fire department is afraid it will spread to other houses. A local politician is called to observe the fire in order to assess the damage in hopes he can do something to prevent future fires. Here is the problem: rarely is it smart to throw money at the problem because money burns as well as most other forms of kindling.

Due to the lack of a salary cap, Major League Baseball teams are allowed to pay their players as much money as they want. It allows for great diversity amongst the teams' total payrolls. For example, the New York Yankees spent $197,962,289 on their players this season. The Yankees generally spend the most money of any MLB team on their players, and with numerous playoff appearances and World Series titles they reap the benefits on the field. In comparison, teams like the San Diego Padres, Tampa Bay Rays, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Oakland Athletics find themselves consistently at the bottom of payroll lists.

I began looking through the payroll lists* in order to find a trend- some pattern that would prove interesting. First, I used www.Baseballprospectus.com which uses simulations and models to estimate the number wins and losses for each team at the end of the season. Next I plotted each team's 2012 payroll against the number of wins that the guys at Baseball Prospectus estimate each team will have by October 1st. I plotted the best-fit line and even calculated the R squared value. Here are the results:

If you would like to see the data used in this graph click on this: LINK

My sole conclusion from the graph and the results collected is that there is very little connection between a team's wins and the amount of money they spend to put together a team. The R-squared value indicates only 7% of the variation of wins is explained by the results The lowest point represents the Houston Astros. That team has spent the third fewest dollars, and due to their abysmal results, find themselves in the cellar. Here are some other interesting facts that came from these data:

•  The Yankees have the highest payroll in the Majors, and pay about $2,062,107 per win 
• The Phillies have the 2^nd highest payroll in the Majors, and pay about $2,266,739 per win
• The Padres have the lowest payroll in the Majors, and pay about $781,396 per win 
• The Athletics have the 2^nd lowest payroll in the Majors, and pay about $661,559 per win  
• Finally, the Nationals have the best record in the Majors, and the 19^th lowest payroll. They pay about $823,240 per win

Without a doubt, the Nationals have got the best return on their investment this season. That conclusion makes some sense in that the Nationals have numerous young players without large contracts who have a lot of talent and have performed at a high level this season. In comparison, the Philadelphia Phillies have an extremely high payroll and have severely underachieved in the National League East. 

So, does money win championships? The answer is sometimes. Does a low payroll filled with young players win championships? Same answer, sometimes. Overall the only question to ask that doesn't incur a similar answer is, "What is the best formula to use?" The only answer to that question is build a smart team. If management makes intelligent decisions that balance spending with results and predictions, it gives an organization the best chance to succeed. Oh, and don't forget about luck. 

*All team payroll data was taken from USA Today's tabulation of sports team's payrolls (Link)