Hamilton Wants The Benjamins

Today, via the Dallas Morning News, it was reported that Josh Hamilton and his agent will seek a 7-year contract worth approximately $175 million. Hamilton was the 2010 American League MVP, and since joining the Rangers in 2008 has averaged ~ 4.5 fWAR per season. Hamilton is 31 years old and only getting older, so let's assume that in a 7 year contract he will average 4.5 WAR for 4 years and 2.5 WAR for 3 years. That would mean that he would accumulate 25.5 WAR. According to the current $$/WAR estimates, Hamilton would be worth between $115 and $120 million.

So, Hamilton is seeking a contract that is roughly $55 million more than he will be worth over the next 7 seasons. Now, this is merely a prediction on my part, I didn't factor in inflation, the fact that $/WAR goes up every season, and the value he provides a team in ticket sales, merchandise sales, and overall fan interest. So, given all of that, it's quite possible that were a team to sign Hamilton to a 7-year $175 million contract, they may only end up overpaying him by about $3 million per season, a reasonable figure in the long run. In addition, if the team that signs Hamilton moves him, as it should, to a corner outfield spot, his chances of getting injured should drop, thus allowing his offensive production to pick up. It could make him more valuable, thus justifying the money just a bit more.

Hamilton, who has made it known that he would like to remain in Texas, will allow the Rangers to match any offer made to him throughout the offseason. Jon Daniels and his baseball operations department love to give prospects a chance, and have been known to use the trade, rather than free agent signings, to add to the Rangers roster. On the other hand, Hamilton has been a fan favorite and fixture in Texas since bursting onto the scene there in 2008. If he were to sign elsewhere, Daniels and his staff would need to replace his presence with another big name like Zack Greinke or B.J. Upton. To add one more caveat, the Rangers have tendered Hamilton a qualifying offer, which he could still accept. If so, he would make $13.3 million next year, and would become a free agent after the 2013 season. If he declines the offer, any team that signs Hamilton will forfeit their 1st round draft pick to the Rangers, but most likely, any team willing to give Hamilton a contract is willing to give up their 1st round pick.

Hamilton's asking price is high, but why shouldn't he ask for as much as he can? As a free agent his job is to agree to the most money possible, it is the job of the team that signs him to determine everything else. Hamilton's major issue this past season was his increased tendency to strikeout. He had a career high K% of 25.5%, which is well above the AL average of 19.3%. Also, Hamilton's overall production any return if he was to stop trying to hit home runs. His fly ball percentage rose from 37.6% in 2011 to 41.1% 2012 while his line drive percentage remained the same. Hamilton's home run total was the highest of his career in 2012, but his tendency to hit more fly balls may have led to fewer overall hits. This is proven through Hamilton's drop in his infield hit percentage which went down from 9.0% to 6.5% from 2011 to 2012. Moving Hamilton from center field to a corner outfield spot, and working with him to hit the ball in the air a bit less often could increase his production to a 6.0 WAR player, which would justify a contract of $25 million per season for 7 years.

The Supermarket of Center Fielders

Slugger Josh Hamilton

A center fielder here, a center fielder there, center fielders everywhere. I know it sounds silly, but that little ditty describes the 2012-2013 free agent market with remarkable accuracy. Not only is this winter's market chock full of center fielders, but it's full of valuable ones. While there are very weak options at numerous other positions, outfield, and specifically center field has a number of great options. Some are flashy big name candidates like Josh Hamilton and Michael Bourn, and others are solid options with the potential for more like B.J. Upton and Angel Pagan.

Here is some general information on these 4 players:

	Age	Bats/Throws	Experience
Hamilton	31	L/L	6 Years
Upton	28	R/R	7 years
Bourn	29	L/R	6 Years
Pagan	31	S/R	7 Years

All 4 of these players are about the same age, and they have all played about the same number of MLB seasons. Angel Pagan offers the most versatility because he can hit from both sides of the plate, but rarely does sidedness change a team's decision on whether to sign a player or not. Let's go a little more in depth.

Best hitter: The best overall hitter amongst these players is Josh Hamilton. This shouldn't come as a surprise. Hamilton was the American league most valuable player in 2010. He is the only true power hitter of the bunch, notching the highest wRC+ at 140, and hitting for the highest wOBA at .387. Hamilton is a slugger, averaging about 33 home runs per season over the last three years. He easily has the highest ISO of this foursome at .292. Hamilton is the pure hitter of the bunch, and honestly, any team that signs him should seriously consider making him a corner outfielder that takes some reps as a designated hitter (pending he remains in the AL). Not only does Hamilton hit well, but he also gets on base, sporting the 2nd best BB% of these four at 9.4%. None of this is all that surprising. Hamilton is a middle-of-the-order hitter, Pagan and Bourn are best as leadoff hitters, and Upton is the lone enigma, sporting the best potential to hit both for power and to use his speed.

Michael Bourn

Best Fielder:

	FRAA	UZR	DRS
Hamilton	-1.5	-12.6	-9
Upton	-6.5	-2.4	-4
Bourn	0.4	22.4	24
Pagan	10.9	0.1	-6

When looking into fielding, metrics only tell some of the story. On the other hand, I've seen all four of these outfielders play, and the three distinct fielding metrics seen above tell the story very well. Michael Bourn is without a doubt the best fielder of this bunch. Bourn, along with Jason Heyward and Martin Prado made for the best combined defensive outfield in MLB last season. Atlanta is a larger than average sized park, giving Bourn a great deal of room to cover. Bourn's incredible speed, above average arm, and very good instincts make him the best current defensive center fielder, but speed diminishes quickly, and any team that signs Bourn to a long-team contract should know that Bourn probably won't be able to keep up this production in center field in the long-term. Interestingly, Baseball Prospectus' preferred defensive metric FRAA, values Angel Pagan higher than Michael Bourn. Fielding runs above average is not a zone-based metric, instead if looks at the plays made by the average defender at the given position and compares it to the plays made by the given player. Pagan's 10.9 is considered excellent, while Bourn's 0.4 puts him at about average. Due to the difference in calculation between these defensive metrics, a team looking to upgrade their defense in center field might see Pagan as a better short-term option as he combines average defense in terms of range and an excellent defender in terms of play-by-play comparison. 

Most Potential: The player with the most potential is definitely B.J. Upton. Upton is the youngest player of these four, with a great set of tools. Many think that Upton needs a change of scenery, as the Rays drafted him hoping for superstar potential, but he never lived up to the hype. Upton has averaged a 3.9 fWAR over his last 6 seasons, all leading up his prime years (27-32 years old). Upton has a very strong arm, great speed, and has shown the ability to hit for power. Upton's issues revolve around his high strikeout rate, ranging from 28.1% to 21.2% combined with his low walk rate, which has ranged from as low as 7% to as high as 15.2%. Josh Hamilton and Michael Bourn are clearly flashier candidates, but due to those two, Upton has the chance to fly under the radar. His relative youth, skill set, and consistently moderate productivity make him the player with the best chance to break out and become a star.

Angel Pagan

Best Value: 

	WARP	fWAR	rWAR
Hamilton	3.9	4.4	3.4
Upton	2.1	3.3	2.6
Bourn	3.7	6.4	6.0
Pagan	4.7	4.8	4.0

So, Josh Hamilton is the best hitter, Michael Bourn the best defender, and B.J. Upton has the most upside, but the best value at centerfield has to be Angel Pagan. Obviously, if a team is in need of a power hitter, the only choice is Hamilton, but looking at all four players objectively; Pagan provides the best overall package. From a hitting perspective, Pagan's .334 wOBA and 113 wRC+ put him second amongst these four players in both categories, and his .152 ISO was at league average for 2012. Pagan is a versatile player; he is a switch hitter, but can also bat in many spots in the batting order. He provides above average defense, and has proven he can play well in one of the largest parks in the Majors in San Fancisco. Pagan is 31 years old, so a long-term deal would not make sense, but he might provide the best overall value over the next 3 seasons in comparison to Hamilton, Bourn, and Upton. Upton is an unknown, Hamilton is one-dimensional and has had substance abuse problems in the past, while Bourn's game is based around speed, which diminishes rapidly as age increases. 

Best Fits:

Josh Hamilton is set to make a boatload of money. From the team perspective, his best value is in a 3 to 4-year contract, but with Hamilton looking of something more in the range of 7-8 seasons, it minimizes the number of good pairings. Teams that make the most sense for Hamilton are mid-major teams like Seattle, Baltimore, and Milwaukee. All three teams would most likely attempt to move him to a corner outfield spot, but that would be a solid career move for Hamilton to accept. 

Michael Bourn is a speedster, who will immediately upgrade a team's defense in the outfield, and solidify any team's leadoff spot in the batting order. Teams that make sense for Bourn are the Yankees, Nationals, Giants, and Dodgers. 

B.J. Upton

B.J. Upton is the most difficult player on this list to place. The biggest difficulty in signing Upton will be that any team to do so will most likely end up overpaying him. If we project Upton to continue to put up ~ 4.0 fWAR over the next 4 seasons, he would be worth about $80 million. On the other hand, insider Jon Heyman of CBS Sports projects Upton to sign a contract in the 5-year $60 million range. Teams that would fit Upton include the Phillies, Nationals, Rangers, Braves, and Dodgers.

Lastly, let's consider Angel Pagan. Pagan is a solid all around player. The only knock on him is that unlike these other 4 players, Pagan has only put up really good numbers in two out of his 7 seasons in MLB. Otherwise, Pagan is a great option, due to his offensive flexibility, defensive abilities, and experience. Unlike these other four center fielders, any deal Pagan signs will most likely be shorter-term and less expensive, thus he becomes a good option to a team looking to upgrade in center field without spending a lot of money. In addition, the Giants didn't make a qualifying offer to Pagan, meaning any team that signs him won't lose their first round draft selection. A good contract for both Pagan and the team that signs him would be in the area of 4 years worth about $45 million. Teams that make sense include the Phillies, Giants, Dodgers, Rangers, Braves, and Nationals. 

In the end, all four players are solid outfield options. The only things we truly know are that all four players will become very rich men, and, going into the 2013 season, four teams will have new center fielders.

The Trade that Wasn't

My most recent article, titled "Haren Here, Marmol There" talked about the trade made between the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Angels. The Trade was a swap; Dan Haren for Carlos Marmol. I examined the deal, but later, following the posting of the article, the trade was confirmed as dead. Apparently, Carlos Marmol leaked it to a dominican reporter that he had been traded to the Angels, the reporter inferred that the player going to the Cubs was Haren, and the news spread like a wildfire.

The Cubs reported no trade, and Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports confirmed it. So, take the previous article as an interesting hypothetical. I'm not completely surprised by this. This trade felt fishy from the beginning, as the Cubs seemed to be getting too good a deal. On the other hand, I bought into it just like everyone else. Nonetheless, there was no trade today between the Cubs and the Angels, instead the Angels will have to pay Haren's $3.5 million buyout as no one is reporting they picked up his option before 11pm eastern standard time.

Overall this will save the Angels more money that if this trade had actually happened, but then again, they didn't get Carlos Marmol.

Haren Here, Marmol There

The Angels had until 11pm to make something happen. At that point the team would have to either pick up or decline the option on righty Dan Haren. Recently the team announced they would be actively shopping both Ervin Santana and Dan Haren, hoping to trade them for salary relief as well as relief pitchers. They successfully traded Santana to the Kansas City Royals in exchange for a minor league lefty specialist, but had yet to move Haren. Both Santana and Haren had particularly awful seasons in 2012, but both are bounce-back candidates, making them valuable to teams that could otherwise not afford to take a chance on a player who played so poorly last season.

Enter the Chicago Cubs. Today, the Cubs announced that they had acquired Dan Haren from the Angels in exchange for reliever Carlos Marmol. Marmol, has had his ups and downs with the Cubs. He's recently shown rises in his BB% and HR/FB%, both bad signs for a pitcher who tends to be wild. His strikeout percentage hasn't dropped off, so Marmol still shows signs of his 2010 self, when he posted a 3.0 fWAR, but overall, he may cause more headaches for Mike Scioscia rather than solve problems. The Angels are fairly transparent. They want to sign Zack Greinke to a long-term deal, and improve their bullpen. This move saves them $5.7 million ($15.5 million - $9.8 million), which doesn't seem like much, but it could make the difference between staying under the luxury tax and not. 

The Cubs come out fairing very well in this deal. They "bought low" on Haren's potential productivity. Haren is a perfect bounce-back candidate. He has averaged 4.7 fWAR since becoming an everyday starting pitcher. His dip in 2012 to a weaker 1.8 WAR makes me think that the Cubs can expect Haren to produce a WAR in 2013 somewhere between 2-3.5 WAR, which would make the $15.5 million the Cubs now owe him reasonable. The Cubs have a solid defensive infield including Starlin Castro, Darwin Barney, and Anthony Rizzo, maning that a ground ball pitcher like Haren could flourish from playing with them. The Cubs were desperate to rid themselves of Marmol, especially since he became both more expensive and less effective at the same time. 

Overall, this deal favors the Cubs. I'm not sure what other offers were on the table for Haren, but I feel for Jerry Dipoto if this was the best he could do. I hope the $6 million he's saving due to this transfer is worth it. Although Marmol can be affective, he's trending the opposite way, while Haren's 2012 may have been just a one-year drop. Both players will become free agents following the 2013 season, unless they sign a contract extension. 

Qualifying Offers

In the old collective bargaining agreement, as the offseason began, free agents were placed in three categories, type A, type B, and neither. Type A free agents were those free agents who, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, were in the top 20% of all players over the last 2 seasons. Type B free agents were in the next 20% according to Elias, and unclassified free agents cover the rest of the available free agents. Say free agent John Smith is classified as a type A free agent. He used to play for Team X, but was recently signed to a contract by team Y. Due to Smith's status as a type A free agent, Team X will receive Team Y's first round draft pick in the upcoming draft. Were Smith a type B free agent, the process would be the same except the compensatory pick would be a 2nd round pick.

Now that you have all read and reread those rules, MLB recently amended the collective bargaining agreement to do away with the free agent classification system. Under the new system, in order for a team to receive draft pick compensation they must give any free agent a qualifying offer. A qualifying offer is a one-year contract. The contract's value is determined by averaging the annual salary of the top 125 MLB players from the previous season. All qualifying offers are for the same amount. Teams have 5 days after the World Series to make these offers while the players have 7 days more to accept or reject the offer. If they accept, they are thus signed to that deal, but if not, they become a free agent.

Making a qualifying offer to a player is very strategic. Each situation is different, but the team must be willing for the player to accept the offer, no matter how unlikely it seems. For example, Josh Hamilton is the biggest name in free agency this offseason, and the Rangers made him a qualifying offer even though they may attempt to resign him. If he chooses a different team, the Rangers will at the very least, get a draft pick in return.

The Rays offered a qualifying offer to B.J. Upton today. They have no intention of making him a contract offer, but small market teams that rely on their farm systems love to nest as many draft picks as possible. While the Rays made an offer to Upton purely to receive the compensatory draft pick, the Yankees made qualifying offers to free agents Hiroki Kuroda, Nick Swisher, and Raphael Soriano. Kuroda may actually accept the offer, which is for $13.3 million, due to his desire to play under a one-year contract and the fact that $13.3 million is $3.3 million more than the 1-year contract he played under last season. A salary increase of 33% is well deserved for a pitcher who, according to Fangraphs was worth $17.5 million. The Yankees most likely want him back. He might be able to negotiate for more, but $13.3 million is good for both sides.

Draft picks are like gold; they are never bad to have. Some pan out, some don't, but stock piling them is a great way to enhance a team, whether the team is from Tampa Bay or New York. Because free agency is a big game of chess, with the player/agent on one side and the team on the other. A good example of this is David Ortiz's situation. News recently came out that the Rangers have interest in Ortiz, which may have pushed the Red Sox to make him a qualifying offer today. Ortiz and the Red Sox will most likely strike a deal to bring the DH back to Boston, but if Ortiz and his agent don't think the eventual offer from the Red Sox will be good enough, they can accept the qualifying offer. The QO puts the ball back in Ortiz's court, forcing him to decide if he is seriously considering offers from other teams.

The qualifying offer is new, and pundits will observe what comes of this new wrinkle in the CBA over the next few seasons, and examine it's efficacy. With other changes made in the signing of prospects, a draft pick has lost some value, but the picks gained through qualifying offers will still yield teams a precious commodity.