Coming Down the Home Stretch

Folks, we've made it. It's September, which, if you didn't know, is one month before October.  I know, fantastic deductive reasoning on my part.  But, in all seriousness, the plane that is the Major League Baseball regular season is about to land at gate P.  P of course stands for playoffs.  Before we lop off 30% of the teams, there are still 3 more weeks worth of Baseball to watch and enjoy.

Rays Evan Longoria

Let's begin in the daunting American League East.  With most pundits predicting that this would be a three-team race between the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox, the landscape has changed, replacing the Red Sox with the Orioles. No, that wasn't a typo; the Baltimore Orioles are in play to possibly win the AL East.  Going into games on September 10th, the Orioles are officially 1 game back of the New York Yankees for first place in the division.  That sounds great, except the Tampa Bay Rays have caught fire since Evan Longoria has returned, putting them only one game behind the O's, and thus 2 games behind the Yankees.

Since Longoria returned from a hamstring injury on August 7th, the Rays have gone 21-11.  No matter how many intangibles make up the success of a Baseball team, 99.9% of the time they pale in comparison to quantifiable data. The 0.1% is made up solely of Evan Longoria.  When he is in the lineup, the team responds by playing much better baseball. I've honestly never seen anything like it.  Longoria is the definition of an X-factor, something that neither the Yankees nor the Orioles possess.  If the Rays make the playoffs, they are the team I would want to face the least in a 7-game series.

Trout, leaping to rob a home run

Moving on from AL East, we have an amazing anomaly in the American League to discuss.  Mike Trout is leading the American League in Wins Above Replacement, no matter how you calculate it.

Mike Trout
fWAR	8.4
rWAR	9.9
WARP	7.5

Despite the fact that the Angels have underperformed their talent level this season, Mike Trout has emerged as far and away the top player in the League.  No other Major Leaguer has the combination of skills and performance that Trout provides.  According to www.fangraphs.com Mike Trout has been worth $37.8 million.  Obviously, no player makes that much money per season, but since Trout is being paid $480,000 this season, while Ryan Howard is making $25 million this season but has an fWAR of -0.5 worth $2.2 million.  Wow.  It's the only word I can think of to describe that juxtaposition.  

In the National League, the most popular story recently has been the limitations put on Nationals star pitcher Stephen Strasburg.  General Manager Mike Rizzo proclaimed earlier this season that due to Strasburg's recent Tommy John Surgery, which kept him from playing most of the 2011 season, Strasburg would be shut down for the season after pitching about 160.0 innings.  The shut down includes the playoffs, an obvious destination for the Nationals who currently lead the National League East by 5.5 games over the Atlanta Braves and 17.5 over third place Philadelphia.  

Nationals RHP Stephen Strasburg

When asked, most former Major Leaguers call the innings limit ridiculous.  When asked by reporters Strasburg displayed an air of frustration, but in the end none of those people get to make the decision.  The doctors told GM Mike Rizzo to limit Strasburg's use following surgery, and he is following protocol.  Sure, he's taking the cautious route, but wouldn't you? The Nationals/Expos have not been relevant in any discussion of the playoffs since the early 90's, but with a young core of stud players, the team looks like a possible playoff team for a many years to come.  In light of that fact, Rizzo, the rest of the Nats front office, and the owners have made the decision to shut down their star pitcher in the hopes he remains a star for many more seasons.

The biggest storyline, that isn't being talked about, is the dominance of the National League amongst top players.  Using fWAR, 4 out of the top 15 players in the Major Leagues are in the National League.  Mike Trout has an 8.4 fWAR, but after him, it's almost all National Leaguers. 

Name	Team	WAR
Mike Trout	Angels	8.4
Ryan Braun	Brewers	7.3
David Wright	Mets	6.6
Michael Bourn	Braves	6.3
Andrew McCutchen	Pirates	6.1
Jason Heyward	Braves	6.1
Chase Headley	Padres	6.1
Robinson Cano	Yankees	5.9
Miguel Cabrera	Tigers	5.9
Buster Posey	Giants	5.8
Aramis Ramirez	Brewers	5.5
Yadier Molina	Cardinals	5.4
Adrian Beltre	Rangers	5.4
Giancarlo Stanton	Marlins	5
Matt Holliday	Cardinals	5

  I'm not exactly sure what this says about the two leagues, but I know that the American League is not as behind the National League as this chart shows.  If one were to look at the winning percentages of teams in each league, the NL and AL are overall about equal.  This equivalency is portrayed in pitching statistics.  When looking at fWAR amongst pitchers, the numbers look as follows: 

Name	Team	WAR
Justin Verlander	Tigers	5.8
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	5.8
Gio Gonzalez	Nationals	4.9
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	4.9
Johnny Cueto	Reds	4.6
R.A. Dickey	Mets	4.4
Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	4.3
Chris Sale	White Sox	4.2
Zack Greinke	- - -	4.2
Wade Miley	Diamondbacks	4.2
David Price	Rays	4.1
Max Scherzer	Tigers	4
Adam Wainwright	Cardinals	4
Yu Darvish	Rangers	4
Jake Peavy	White Sox	4
Cliff Lee	Phillies	3.9
Josh Johnson	Marlins	3.8
Matt Cain	Giants	3.7
CC Sabathia	Yankees	3.7
Madison Bumgarner	Giants	3.6

9 of the 20 pitchers on that list currently pitch in the American League.  That is just under 50% and thus shows little difference between the two leagues as far as pitching is concerned.  Since pitching has been proven to be the dominating force in the Majors the last few seasons, I would say this list is a better predictor than the list of position players.

The most interesting races to watch as the season comes to an end include the American League East, National League West, and both leagues' wild card teams.  With the addition of a second wild card spot in each league, and the fact that the two wild card winners play a one-game playoff to determine who moves on, winning the division has incredible significance.  

Predictions are fun, so let's make some. I predict that the Tampa Bay Rays, due to their stellar starting pitching and X-factor (see above for more information), will win the AL East with the Yankees and Orioles taking the wild card spots.  That leaves the Oakland Athletics, who have been an amazing story, out, as well as the LA Angels.  The White Sox will hold on to win the AL Central, and more obviously, the Rangers will win the AL West.  

In the National League I predict the Nationals to win the east, the Reds to win the west and the Giants to hold on to win the West.  I see the Braves holding on to win one wild card spot, but while I want to choose the Pirates to make the playoffs for the first time since 1992, I'm instead going with the LA Dodgers to take the second NL wild card spot.  

No matter what, the race to the finish should prove exciting.