Justin Verlander MVP??

Today, the baseball writers announced that Detroit Tigers starting pitcher won the American League MVP award garnering 13 first place votes.  I know what you're thinking, pitchers do not usually win most valuable player awards.  You're right, the last starting pitcher to win the MVP award was Roger Clemens in 1986.  If you are looking for "the case for Verlander" visit FangraphsVerlander.  Verlander went 24-5 with a 2.42 ERA, with 250 strikeouts and a 7.0 WAR.  He compiled a 0.92 WHIP and a .236 BABIP.  Verlander showed durability by not appearing on the disabled list and pitching over 250 innings pitched while averaging 7.38 innings per start.  The tiger's star has emerged as a complete pitcher who does not rely on the fastball to get outs.  Verlander threw fastballs only 57% of the time this season, a career low but did not achieve a career high in percentage thrown of any other pitch demonstrating his versatility on the mound.  By not relying heavily on any one pitch batters lose the ability to take educated guesses as to the pitch type.  Finally, Verlander achieved a 2.99 FIP which accounted for 8th in Major League Baseball.

So, I think it is fair to assume that Justin Verlander deserves the Cy Young award and possible consideration for the MVP , but does he deserve to win MVP.  The MVP is historically an award dominated by position players.  In my opinion pitching and hitting are extremely different, so just as  WAR is different for pitchers and hitters so should the MVP award.  Most people consider the Cy Young award to be based mostly on statistics, which implies that the playoff status of a team does not factor into writers' votes.  In addition baseball writers consider the most valuable player award to factor in team success as well as personal statistics.

Non-pitchers play on an every day basis, while starting pitchers only play 1 out of every 5 games.  A position player can effect his team on an everyday basis, which also implies he can consistently detract from his team.  I still believe that a team's success should factor into the most valuable player award, but if we agree not to separate a players value and their personal statistics than I think personal statistics should be taken into greater account.  A player can prove extremely valuable to his team but not lead them to the playoffs.  For example, Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp has a significant chance to win the National League MVP despite playing for a team that finished 3rd in the NL west with a .509 winning percentage.  Overall, my opinion is such, awards should be separated by pitcher and position player, just as NFL player awards are separated by offense and defense.  Also, both pitcher and position player should have either two awards, one for best player and one for most valuable player, or one award for each.

While the overall considerations for these awards deserve amending, 2011 proved no different.  Jose Bautista and Jacoby Ellsbury, the 3rd and 2nd place winners in the MVP race respectively both play in the AL east, a significantly more difficult division than the AL central.  Overall Jose Bautista compiled a league leading 10.3 WARP.  Ellsbury's numbers proved similar to Bautista's, but Ellsbury proved more versitille due to his great base running (39 stolen bases) and ability to play an outstanding center field.  The Red Sox may have completed the greatest September meltdown in MLB history, but it was not due to Ellsbury's play.  Statistically, September proved to be Ellsbury's second best month.  In the season's final month Ellsbury had a .358 batting average, with a 1.067 OPS, and 8 home runs.  The Red Sox may have faltered down the stretch, but the collapse does not rest on the shoulders of Jacoby Ellsbury.

In the end, Justin Verlander is the 2011 American MVP, not Jose Bautista, Jacoby Ellsbury, nor any other AL player.  We entrust the baseball writers with the power to give out awards and the writers have spoken.  Verlander may not deserve the MVP by our newer more progressive statistical models, but he had an outstanding season.  His play was integral to the Tigers, even if Ellsbury's and Bautista's play were more significant to their teams.  Perhaps the 2011 AL MVP will serve as an example in the fight for a different set of standards and for deciding the winners of seasonal accolades.  Whether this vote changes any fans' minds concerning player awards has yet to be determined, but hopefully the debate over whether Justin Verlander deserved this award will continue to prove the importance of questioning by whom and how these awards are given out.

The Epstein Effect

Theo Epstein’s swift departure from the Red Sox not only altered the Red Sox and Cubs front offices, it sparked a chain reaction of movement within the administrative community of Major League Baseball and shed light on the most recent aristocracy of baseball front office minds.  Much has been written about the “Moneyball” revolution that began with Bill James and permeated to the likes of Sandy Alderson, reaching current minds such as Billy Beane, Paul DePodesta, and Mark Shapiro.  All of these men embraced the idea that a logical, well-educated, statistical approach to the acquisition, sale, and general movement of baseball players provided more merit than the system traditionally implemented.  Just as the baby boom of the 1950’s and 1960’s led to boomlets, so too did the “moneyball” revolution lead to an aftershock of its own. 

Enter Theo Epstein.  Epstein, a graduate of Yale, became the first of many young, well-educated, general managers with a sabermetric mind.  Epstein’s first job in baseball was in the public-relations department for the San Diego Padres.  It was there that he developed a relationship with then Padres President and CEO Larry Lucchino.  Lucchino, a lawyer by training, convinced Epstein to attend and graduate from law school.  Lucchino understood that a Juris Doctor would teach Epstein to think rationally and logically when solving baseball problems.  Epstein already exemplified the characteristics Lucchino thought necessary to achieve high status in a team’s front office.  Lucchino, who had achieved success with Baltimore and San Diego, was grooming a protégé.  Lucchino eventually left the sunny California coast for snowy Boston and the historic Fenway Park.  Not surprisingly, Lucchino brought Epstein along with him to Boston where he eventually ascended to the position of general manager. 

Once Epstein established himself in the Red Sox’s front office, he began to evaluate his staff and assemble his version of the Knights of the Round Table.  Epstein knew that the sole way to create a winning team on the field was to create a winning team in the front office.  His army of minds included Bill James, Jed Hoyer, Ben Cherington, Josh Byrnes, Craig Shipley, Dan Lejoie, and Jason McLeod.  Epstein’s fraternity of young baseball minds made the Red Sox best known not for breaking the curse of the bambino, but instead a powerhouse club that is the only team to win multiple World Series between 2000 and 2010.  Although the on-the-field success fueled the media, fans, and players, Epstein’s front office showed the baseball world a new formula for success.  Almost every member of Epstein’s crew is young, attended top-tier universities, and embraced the “moneyball” method towards running a baseball franchise.  The major difference between Beane’s implementation of sabermetrics in Oakland and Epstein’s usage of it in Boston was that the Red Sox were willing to spend money. 

With an open wallet and a clear plan, Epstein began building a winning team with the capability to shock the world and end the curse of the bambino.  Epstein accomplished this goal within 2 years of taking the job with the Red Sox.  Then, in 2007, he replicated that result by winning a second World Series and cementing his legacy as one of the greatest general managers of all time.  He accomplished this all at only 33 years old. 

Recently Epstein decided to leave Boston, taking his talents to the “Windy City,” to become president of baseball operations for the Cubs.  Epstein, once instructed to lift the curse in Boston, is now charged with reversing 103 years of losing in Chicago.  Not surprisingly, Epstein began reassembling parts of his dream team from his Boston days.  He hired Jed Hoyer as his general manager and Hoyer’s right hand man Jason McLeod as Senior Vice President for Scouting and Player Development.  If Epstein is to turn the Cubs into World Champions he needs to draw on similar principles as those he used in Boston while simultaneously utilizing Avant-garde methods of analyzing the game.

When Theo Epstein became the President of the Cubs he caused movement amongst the front offices in baseball.  His departure opened up a vacancy in Boston.  The Red Sox recently fired manager Terry Francona after an historic collapse that left them out of the playoffs and searching for answers.  Soon after these events unfolded, Epstein bolted for Chicago, which left the Red Sox with a number of gaps in their front office and in need of a new direction.  Instead of using their considerable clout to attract big name general manager candidates, the Sox focused on recent success and the need for stability.  The Sox hired from within, propelling Ben Cherington, an Epstein disciple, to become the Red Sox General Manager at age 37.  Cherington attended Amherst College and received a master’s degree in sports management from the University of Massachusetts.  He broke into baseball with the Cleveland Indians as a scout and was hired by Dan Duquette, the General Manager of the Red Sox before Theo Epstein, in 1997.  He and Jed Hoyer served as co-general managers during Epstein’s leave of absence in 2005 and facilitated the trade for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. 

Cherington’s Co-General Manager during Epstein’s short resignation from the Red Sox was Jed Hoyer.  Hoyer, like Cherington, attended an excellent small liberal arts university and broke into baseball at a young age with no major league experience.  Hoyer attended Wesleyan University graduating with a degree in history joining the Red Sox in 2002 at the same time as Epstein.  Hoyer is most famously known for traveling with Epstein during Thanksgiving to convince Curt Schilling to accept a trade to the Red Sox.  Hoyer quickly moved up in the Red Sox organization becoming Assistant General Manager.  Not long after, his name began to appear on lists of the top ten next General Managers. 

“Hoyer has been at Theo Epstein's right hand since the start of the Red Sox revival. Taking over as Assistant GM after Josh Byrnes left to head up the rebuilding of the Diamondbacks, Hoyer was mentioned by nearly everyone asked as "the next big thing."”[1]

Hoyer was rewarded for his success in Boston when the San Diego Padres hired him as their new General Manager in 2009.  He turned a 75-win team in 2009 into a 90-win team in 2010.  Following early success in San Diego, Hoyer made the transition from small market team to the big times when his former boss, Epstein, hired him to be the general manager of the Chicago Cubs. 

Jed Hoyer’s story is very similar to that of Josh Byrnes.  Byrnes went to Haverford College, graduating with a degree in English.  Byrnes began his career with the Cleveland Indians, before Dan O’Dowd hired him as an Assistant General Manager of the Colorado Rockies.  Epstein recognized Byrnes as an asset to his squad and hired him as an Assistant GM of the Red Sox.  That same year, 2005, Byrnes was hired by the Arizona Diamondbacks to become their GM at the age of 35.  In 2 years Byrnes took a 77-win team to the 2007 NLCS.  His immediate success was followed by some difficult years that led to his firing in 2010.  Although his time in Arizona had ended, the Padres quickly hired Byrnes as their Vice President of Baseball Operations.  Then, following Hoyer’s departure for the windy city Byrnes became the next Padres General Manager. 

The Theo Epstein boomlet has finally sprouted wings and begun to fly on its own.  Epstein took a new style of thinking about baseball, money, and ambition and changed the position of General Manager forever.  General Managers had commonly been older former players, managers, and executives—not young, educated, enthusiasts with sharp minds and full of confidence.  Margaret Meade once said, “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has.”  Meade could easily have been describing Theo Epstein and his disciples.  Epstein may still wear the crown in the GM world, but he has created a new crop of forward thinking baseball administrators pent on using the Epstein principles of management to turn losers into winners.  Change the philosophy of scouting, drafting, and evaluating talent, while simultaneously trading for and signing players who fit their defensive, offensive, and pitching metrics.  The Epstein effect has and will continue to spread, changing the position of General Manager and the game forever. 

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[1] The Next Ten Top GM Candidates by Will Carroll www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7683

Roy Halladay

The 2011 Phillies dominated major league baseball with the best record thanks to their starting pitching.  When Ruben Amaro Jr. pieced together a rotation of aces, the likes of which we last saw in Atlanta during the 1990’s, he envisioned the starting rotation to be the Phillies key to success.  His vision has come to fruition.  No pundit would argue that the Phillies could have sustained the best record in Major League Baseball without the likes of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt, and even Vance Worley. 

            This article will focus on Roy Halladay’s contribution to the team.  This year marks Halladay’s second season in a Phillies uniform.  Since he stepped on the mound in Philadelphia, Halladay has proven his worth by dominating hitters.  His resume in Philadelphia includes a perfect game, a playoff no-hitter, and the 2010 National League Cy Young award.  This prosperity derives from pitching fundamentals, work ethic, and tenacity.  As Cole Hamels put it,

“There's a reason he’s done so well in his career, and it comes from his incredible work ethic and his desire to win.”[1] 

            It did, however, take time for Roy Halladay to develop his signature style.  1999 and 2000 proved to be difficult seasons for Halladay.  In his first chance to pitch in the big leagues, he experienced control issues.  In 1999 Halladay compiled 79 walks in 149.1 innings pitched.  In 2000 he resolved some of his control issues, but he became too hittable, giving up 107 hits in 67.2 innings pitched.  After being shut down by the Blue Jays, Halladay resolved to rework his mechanics.  Instead of throwing from directly over the top, an angle from which the most velocity can be generated, Halladay began to throw from a sixty-degree angle.  This “three quarters” angle of pitching allowed Halladay to deceive hitters by deviating from the norm.  Throwing from this angle lowered his speed but consequently allowed him to add more sink, cut, and tailing action to his fastball.  These variations in the 2-seam fastball became Halladay’s staple, leading to great success. 

            Halladay saw immediate results.  Only once since 2000 had he acheived an earned run average above 3.92.  Along with lower earned run averages, Halladay saw his strikeout totals rise and walk totals reach all-time lows.  Despite accumulating over two hundred strikeouts many times in his career, Halladay’s pitching style plays to contact.  Cutters, sinkers, and tailing fastballs generally do not generate strikeouts, but groundballs.  Hitters can more easily time a 91 mph cutter than a 96 mph four-seam fastball, but due to the cutter’s additional movement, Halladay jams the hitter or forces the hitter to hit the top of the ball causing more groundballs.  Between 2004 and 2011 Halladay’s groundball to flyball ratio has been as high as 1.60.  Due to his fantastic control and his ability to throw both his changeup and curveball for strikes, as well as use them as “put away” pitches, Halladay has dominated hitters.  His flexibility is best encapsulated by Halladay’s former teammate Benji Molina.

“Roy is like a machine. He’s the type of pitcher that doesn’t care what happens around him. He still is going to get the batters out any way he can. That’s what makes him a lot better than most.”[2]

            In addition to his refined mechanics, three quarters throwing style, and excellent use of his variety of pitches, Halladay embodies the quintessential hard-worker.  Halladay diligently works on his routine between starts, utilizing a lifting program, stretching, and cardiovascular workouts to ready himself for his next turn on the hill.  According to Phillies manager Charlie Manuel,

"He [Roy] comes in here and he's always doing something…He never sits still. He talks to you very short and then says he has to go running or whatever. He definitely has a routine and a program and he's going to stay on that. Nothing is going to get in his way. That's a commitment every day and that's good."[3]

            The third key to Halladay’s success stems from his mentality and approach to pitching.  Halladay displays persistence and determination in all games he pitches.  This mentality makes him a Cy Young candidate every year, and the ability to potentially pitch a complete game every time.  Halladay’s durability eases the strain on the bullpen and solidifies his supremacy at the top of the Phillies rotation.  Ten of his 19 wins in 2011 came following a Phillies loss.  Fans count on “Doc” Halladay, as he is colloquially known, to ameliorate the pain of a loss by following it up with a victory. 

            Recently, however, Halladay has revealed a chink in his armor, surrendering more runs in the first inning, 14, than in any other inning.  Batters hit .274 in the first inning against Halladay in comparison to the .239 they hit against him overall.  During the first inning Halladay has a 3.66 ERA and has given up 34 hits.  Although these are average numbers for most pitchers, they show vulnerability rarely portrayed by Doc Halladay.

           

            Despite this minor flaw, Halladay has been the consummate leader of the Phillies staff.  His delivery is fluid and compact, with perfect balance midway through his motion, a long stride towards the plate, and a simple follow through.  Such elegance and pursuit of perfection are the foundation of Halladay’s dominance and durability. 

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[1] http://www.jockbio.com/Bios/Halladay/Halladay_they-say.html

[2] http://www.jockbio.com/Bios/Halladay/Halladay_they-say.html

[3] http://articles.nydailynews.com/2010-02-21/sports/27056858_1_work-ethic-cole-hamels-general-manager-ruben-amaro

The Case for Victorino

The NL MVP Award

The National League MVP race has recently spurred much discussion amongst Baseball's talking heads.  The 2011 NL MVP may be decided after the season, but speculation now is allowed and even welcomed.  Commonly known names in contention for the award include Matt Kemp of the Dodgers, Ryan Braun of the Brewers, Prince Fielder of the Brewers, and Justin Upton of the Diamondbacks.  Interestingly, none of these four players hail from the NL east, the division that boasts the two best winning percentages in the national league.

Matt Kemp would have a lock on the award, but his Dodgers find themselves amongst mediocrity in the middle of the the NL West at 5 games below .500.  Just like a combination lock, Kemp has all of the right numbers to be considered and chosen the NL MVP, but his team's lack of contention cuts his chances by a significant amount.  Kemp has the best WAR in the NL at 8.1.  He sports a .320 batting average, 102 rbi, 31 home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a .965 OPS.  If the dodgers were vying for the playoffs, or at least had a winning record, Kemp would receive enough votes to claim the award, but because the award is most "valuable" and not "best" player, he will most likely not win the award this year. 

Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder should each buy Matt Kemp a drink because, most likely, one of these Brewers will take home the MVP award instead of the Dodger's center-fielder.  Braun has the second best WAR in the NL at 6.7 to go along with a .333 batting average, 25 home runs, 89 rbi, 31 stolen bases, and a .995 OPS.  Braun's numbers alone easily put him in contention to win the MVP, and due to the Brewers success this season,we could see the first Jewish NL MVP since Sandy Koufax in 1963.  Braun makes a convincing case for the MVP award, but so does his teammate, Prince Fielder.  Fielder is the power in the Brewers potent lineup.  This season Fielder has compiled a .293 batting average, 29 home runs, 102 rbi, a 4.0 WAR, and a .947 OPS.  Braun's numbers dwarf his teammates', but they do not overshadow them enough to exclude Fielder from the MVP conversation.  If Fielder turns on the power in September, he could snatch this award away from Braun. 

The only other name being consistently mentioned is Justin Upton.  Upton, the right fielder for the Diamondbacks, is the Dbacks best player.  The Arizona Diamondbacks have unexpectedly made their way past the World Series champion Giants into first place in the west.  Upton's application for the MVP award does not muster up to the likes of Kemp of Braun, except that he is the best player on the best team in the NL west.  He has a 3.9 WAR, .294 batting average, 26 home runs, 80 rbi, 20 stolen bases, and a .909 OPS.  These numbers are far below those of Braun, Fielder, and Kemp, but combined with the Diamondbacks place in the standings, they do put him in contention for the MVP award.  Upton would need to have a jaw dropping September to win the award. 

One name that is rarely spoken of in the MVP conversation is Shane Victorino.  Victorino, the Phillies Center-fielder, is a dark horse candidate for the NL MVP, but should receive more consideration.  Victorino, like Kemp, plays Center-field, the captain of the outfield and the player with the most ground to cover.  He has proven to be the spark plug in the Phillies lineup whether he bats in the lead-off position, or any other place in the order.  At 30 years old, Victorino is having the best season of his career.  He has a .307 batting average, 15 home runs, 54 rbi, a .919 OPS, a 5.1 WAR, 14 triples, and he has struck out only 46 times while being walked 44 times.  Victorino has grounded into only 2 double plays all season, the same number as Reds pitcher Mike Leake who has 1/5 the number of at bats as Victorino.  It is obvious from these numbers that Victorino does not detract from his squad, he is a player without leaks.  With Jimmy Rollins' contributions becoming less and less, Ryan Howard's inability to hit for average, and Chase Utley missing the first two months of the season, Victorino has proven to be the the Phillies most valuable hitter.  Braun may have better numbers across the board, but it is difficult to make the argument that he is more valuable to his team than Victorino is to the Phillies.  The Phillies sport the best record in baseball at 87-46, 41 games above .500.  Although their dynamic pitching staff has contributed greatly to their success, it is Victorino who contributes every day instead of every 5th day.  He has batted in 5 different spots in the Phillies lineup this season, contributing where ever Charlie Manuel puts him.  When Victroino plays well, the Phillies win.  He has a .348 batting average, 1.059 OPS, 95 hits, and 66 runs scored in Phillies wins this year in comparison to a .218 batting average, .629 OPS, 29 hits, and 15 runs scored in Phillies losses.  Although Victorino's statistics are not as flashy or sexy as Braun, Fielder, and Kemp, they show a most valuable contribution to the best team in baseball.  Most likely, this award will end up in Milwaukee, but no voter should cast his or her ballot before seriously considering Shane Victorino, the most valuable choice in the National League.   

Philadelphia Vintage Base Ball

Check out my article on Paul Lukas' Uniwatch website.